A readworthy article about America's rebalance to Asia and the reasons why it may backfire

[mike jones]

In the 19th century, China was subject to foreign spheres of influence at point of gun, remember? Russia, Japan, United States, UK, France, Germany, et al --- had imposed their will on China.

I suppose this era was a catastrophic time for the Chinese state.

Well the Mainland use this "Century of Humiliation" as a fuel for their nationalistic rhetoric - it started with British Opium Wars while its end varies on who interprets it.

How Humiliation Drove Modern Chinese History - The Atlantic
'Century Of Humiliation' Complicates U.S.-China Relationship

Quite frankly, conquering their insecurities. Well, they doing it wrong.

 

[Aepsilons]

Already China's behavior have spurned the TPP into existence, to counter their regional dominance economically, further military integration and cooperation with India, Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, the US and other regional nations seeks to maintain a peaceful, but deterring balance too. Politically China's cards are mainly economic, which is a big incentive to not shut out China completely from any of the SCS nations, but beyond this it has little to offer at a time when others are approaching one another with greater urgency.

That's the thing, my friend, all they offer is economic incentives. Their market. Other than that, they know that the region is fomenting plans to contain them, and they know this all too well with even their FTA partners in on the game.

Japan and the United States, as well as India and Australia must take advantage of this situation maximally. I assure you the Chinese would had they be in our shoes.

 

[jhungary]

Operationally speaking, the VPN, and the Filipino Fleet can engage the PLAN South Sea Fleet. This would leave only the PLAN'S East Sea and North Sea Fleet left to defend against the Combined Fleet of the JMSDF (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th Escort Fleets would be combined) and would merge with the 7th Fleet ---- to eradication of the PLAN's North Sea and East Sea Fleets.

Once this was completed, the JMSDF and the USN 7th Fleet would steam south and crush the remaining PLAN South Sea Fleet.

Of course the VPN and Filipino Fleets would have accomplished their duties in this paradigm.

I don't think this is quite likely.......

In paper term, it seems possible. But only as long as the PLAN fall into the plan and engage the VPN and PN fleet.
The problem as I see is that, VPN and Philippine had process a small fleet (with VPN process 7 FF and 11 Corvette type and PN with similar number) There are not much of a way if they were to actively engage the PLAN, except trying to lay a trap. Then if that come, and if I am a PLAN officer, I will simply wait for the bigger combine fleet from the North and simply ignore the Southern Flanks.

I can, send in a minimal response to the south, couple with the air command in the south to deter/stand against the VPN/PN threat and concentrate on the Northern Threat. And once the northern threat is dealt with, I will come back and mop up the southern threat. Doing this, even if my south cannot hold, I still have the bulk of my ship and resource to stand against the weaker side after the strong side have been dealt with.

Or I could simply use penetration tactics and avoid an engagement. I don't think 10 Frigate and 22 Corvette can totally secure all the sea lane south of SCS....

 

[Aepsilons]

Quite frankly, conquering their insecurities. Well, they doing it wrong.

Well, the Boxer Rebellion and instance of right wing extremism in China only encouraged foreign interventionalism in China. I suppose its more of a reason for the CPC to control their radical members in their military cadre who might instigate something similar.

 

[Spectre]

China could have made things worse... it didn't.

The question remains how can China make things better? They have put themselves or managed to stumble in a no win confrontational situation. US response could have been seen coming from miles away and should have been factored in.

China could have easily avoided this whole mess and gained international support if it would have acted in consultation with all parties. As of now it looks like a bully which got it teeth kicked by a bigger bully.

Best option for China is to do some face saving exercise and cut a deal with US so that it can back off with dignity. Active confrontation would leave China isolated.

No offense meant to all parties.

Regards

 

[Aepsilons]

I don't think this is quite likely.......

In paper term, it seems possible. But only as long as the PLAN fall into the plan and engage the VPN and PN fleet.
The problem as I see is that, VPN and Philippine had process a small fleet (with VPN process 7 FF and 11 Corvette type and PN with similar number) There are not much of a way if they were to actively engage the PLAN, except trying to lay a trap. Then if that come, and if I am a PLAN officer, I will simply wait for the bigger combine fleet from the North and simply ignore the Southern Flanks.

I can, send in a minimal response to the south, couple with the air command in the south to deter/stand against the VPN/PN threat and concentrate on the Northern Threat. And once the northern threat is dealt with, I will come back and mop up the southern threat.

Or I could simply use penetration tactics and avoid an engagement. I don't think 10 Frigate and 22 Corvette can totally secure all the sea lane south of SCS....

Hypothetically speaking, let us say they ignored the VPN and the PN, and they mobilized their 3 fleets to engage the JMSDF and the USN 7th Fleet. Still, the JMSDF+USN7th Fleet have the qualitative and quantitative advantage. Not to mention the VPN and PN would disrupt their supply lines and engage their coastal regions. Due to this dimensional threat, I believe the PLAN SCF would divert at least 3-4 squadrons behind to engage any VPN and PN forces.

Then , my friend, we have to consider also the 'Taiwan Factor'. In such a climactic fight, I guarantee you this would be the time the ROCN would initiate its Operation Blue Dragon.....

 

[Cossack25A1]

The question remains how can China make things better? They have put themselves or managed to stumble in a no win confrontational situation. US response could have been seen coming from miles away and should have been factored in.

China could have easily avoided this whole mess and gained international support if it would have acted in consultation with all parties. As of now it looks like a bully which got it teeth kicked by a bigger bully.

Best option for China is to do some face saving exercise and cut a deal with US so that it can back off with dignity. Active confrontation would leave China isolated.

No offense meant to all parties.

Regards

I doubt that China would be isolated, as it has Russia - despite that there will be a few issues regarding their bilateral relations, it is clear that China and Russia support each other. There is also Pakistan in South Asia and probably Iran in Middle East, as well as a few Latin American countries.

 

[Aepsilons]

The question remains how can China make things better? They have put themselves or managed to stumble in a no win confrontational situation. US response could have been seen coming from miles away and should have been factored in.

China could have easily avoided this whole mess and gained international support if it would have acted in consultation with all parties. As of now it looks like a bully which got it teeth kicked by a bigger bully.

Best option for China is to do some face saving exercise and cut a deal with US so that it can back off with dignity. Active confrontation would leave China isolated.

No offense meant to all parties.

Regards

Impossible. The damage is done, the distrust is there; even amongst many of China's partners in ASEAN. They will trade with China to tap into the economic incentives, but geostrategically speaking? No, none of them trust the Chinese. I guarantee you that. All policies by relevant states are done to be politically sensitive in not to hurt Chinese perceptions. In an attempt to preserve their economic 'incentives' with China.

Money, my friend, Money is always the thing.

I doubt that China would be isolated, as it has Russia - despite that there will be a few issues regarding their bilateral relations, it is clear that China and Russia support each other. There is also Pakistan in South Asia and probably Iran in Middle East, as well as a few Latin American countries.

Russia? Russia considers China its number one regional threat to dominance and influence in Eurasia, Northeast Asia. Do not be taken as naive to think that Russian-Chinese relations are "lovey dovey", i guarantee you they are not. Russia maintains strategic ambiguity with China, while opens to the economic incentives.

Do not be naive , my friend.

 

[Spectre]

I doubt that China would be isolated, as it has Russia - despite that there will be a few issues regarding their bilateral relations, it is clear that China and Russia support each other. There is also Pakistan in South Asia and probably Iran in Middle East, as well as a few Latin American countries.

Pakistan is as much an US ally as that of China if you cut through the bombast and rhetoric.

Russia is highly leveraged politically and militarily and any support would be a token once but this can change if Russia can manage a graceful exit out of ME and settle it's problem in Ukraine. In addition Wars are very costly and with commodity prices being as they are - Russia cannot sustain an offensive for long.

Latin America is inconsequential here and America has them well contained.

Impossible. The damage is done, the distrust is there; even amongst many of China's partners in ASEAN. They will trade with China to tap into the economic incentives, but geostrategically speaking? No, none of them trust the Chinese. I guarantee you that. All policies by relevant states are done to be politically sensitive in not to hurt Chinese perceptions. In an attempt to preserve their economic 'incentives' with China.

Money, my friend, Money is always the thing.

True, China has pained itself as a belligerent party and that has hurt it's credibility internationally but as you said China can afford it - if the confrontation does not escalate.

 

[Aepsilons]

Pakistan is as much an US ally as that of China if you cut through the bombast and rhetoric.

Correct. Pakistan and the United States are both military and political allies. Folks here think that Pakistan is iron born with China, that is not true. The truth of the matter is that the ISS and NSA , CIA, cooperate on a multidimensional framework, far even deeper than what China can ever dream of.

 

[jhungary]

Hypothetically speaking, let us say they ignored the VPN and the PN, and they mobilized their 3 fleets to engage the JMSDF and the USN 7th Fleet. Still, the JMSDF+USN7th Fleet have the qualitative and quantitative advantage. Not to mention the VPN and PN would disrupt their supply lines and engage their coastal regions. Due to this dimensional threat, I believe the PLAN SCF would divert at least 3-4 squadrons behind to engage any VPN and PN forces.

Then , my friend, we have to consider also the 'Taiwan Factor'. In such a climactic fight, I guarantee you this would be the time the ROCN would initiate its Operation Blue Dragon.....

Maybe we gone too far, but I can't resist this War Game scenario.......

Ok, a pure northern engagement would have seen China mobilise East Sea, North Sea and South Sea fleet with Northern Air Command, about 140-160 Fighter/bomber. At current level. You are talking about 25 Destroyers and about twice that amount of Frigate and a single Aircraft Carrier. Against the combine US 7th Fleet and 4 Japanese Fleet. Which comprise of about 40 Destroyers + 2 Cruiser, 5 LPD and 1 Fleet Carrier.

A quick calculation would see that it can almost neutralise each other with these firepower, that is when you put the Air command of PLAF.

Quite hard to predict but depends on the location of the engagement, the closer it was to China, the more the PLAN fleet can survive, of course, the closer that it was to Japan, the more combine fleet can survive. Another factor would be whether or not the US would call on the bigger 3rd Fleet from Hawaii at the onset of conflict. If this has done, China have no chance surviving the onslaught.

 

[Aepsilons]

Russia is highly leveraged politically and militarily and any support would be a token once but this can change of Russia can manage a graceful exit out of ME and settle it's problem in Ukraine. In addition Wars are very costly and with commodity prices as they are - Russia cannot sustain an offensive for long.

Lets also be direct and frank with readers here ; Russia considers China its number one threat in the Eurasian region. America is the political enemy, but China? China is the very reason why the Russian Federation maintains a large standing army on borders with China. No where else than in that border region.

 

[mike jones]

Lets also be direct and frank with readers here ; Russia considers China its number one threat in the Eurasian region. America is the political enemy, but China? China is the very reason why the Russian Federation maintains a large standing army on borders with China. No where else than in that border region.

China can never have enough man.

 

[Carach Angren]

The question remains how can China make things better?

I suppose not making things worse is a strange way of trying to say you want to make them better. Like a young boy harming a young girl he likes because he's afraid to tell her, not confronting the US could be a way China saves face while indicating it wants to mend ties, without actually saying it publicly. China knows its actions are damaging its international reputation, creating the very containment trap its trying to avoid and telegraphed or not, and they certainly were with this discussion going on for a few months, China took the right steps in dealing with the US. It shows to the US at least that China can be responsible... for now anyway.

As for the rest of the SCS, I suppose @Nihonjin1051 has it right as it stands today. China can't unless it changes its stance on the SCS and acts in accordance with international law. Their military build up is fine if they don't use it, their economic hegemony is good if they help their neighbors develop, having another policical voice to rationalize with the US is a boon too. Wielding these powers as weapons, that's what has got China in trouble.

Ultimately I don't have an answer, odd because that's my job as a risk analyst (no answer on short notice anyway), no definitive or concrete steps taken by China today could undo all the damage and distrust that has been sown into its neighbors.

Russia? Russia considers China its number one regional threat to dominance and influence in Eurasia, Northeast Asia.

I concur. While their economic interests align, considering Russia problems with Europe right now, and their political dealings help diversify the region away from US interests and influence, Russia still competes with China for resources, economic interests, military concerns and political power in Eurasia. Friends today don't make friends forever.

P.S. do you know Kai? And if so where's he gone? @Transhumanist (don't know if she's told you her name, so I don't want to mention it publically) invited me here, I know where and what she's up to so I don't need to speculate on her absence, but I know Kai's a member here too and I haven't seen him yet. He's @SvenSvensonov right?

 

[Spectre]

Maybe we gone too far, but I can't resist this War Game scenario.......

Ok, a pure northern engagement would have seen China mobilise East Sea, North Sea and South Sea fleet with Northern Air Command, about 140-160 Fighter/bomber. At current level. You are talking about 25 Destroyers and about twice that amount of Frigate and a single Aircraft Carrier. Against the combine US 7th Fleet and 4 Japanese Fleet. Which comprise of about 40 Destroyers + 2 Cruiser, 5 LPD and 1 Fleet Carrier.

A quick calculation would see that it can almost neutralise each other with these firepower, that is when you put the Air command of PLAF.

Quite hard to predict but depends on the location of the engagement, the closer it was to China, the more the PLAN fleet can survive, of course, the closer that it was to Japan, the more combine fleet can survive. Another factor would be whether or not the US would call on the bigger 3rd Fleet from Hawaii at the onset of conflict. If this has done, China have no chance surviving the onslaught.

You have to consider India in this situation too as IN and IAF retains capability to harass China and PLAN fleet has to be on the lookout for this. If it is just US then probably India will not interfere but if it is US, Japan and Vietnam then India too has to step in either politically or militarily to cover it's interests.

Just an armchair borne opinion