A question on Pakistan's GDP growth.

[Menace2Society]

What is needed to sustain 7% year on growth for 20 year period?

 

[farhan_9909]

50Billion dollars?

Infact even 5Billion dollars FDI alone from chinese side will push our growth for more than 6%.

 

[ziaulislam]

I agree with @ziaulislam, we Need to ENFORCE Primary Education on every single citizen of Pakistan (specially in village and backward areas), need to bring educational reforms at alarming rates, need to make a vision for next 10 years, and propose a Special 'Education Related Budget', need to Ban all madrassas and force the students from madrassas to GO TO SCHOOL ...

these problems in Pakistan can only be solved with long term plannings, no short term solutions can help us get rid of this mess.


And War against TTP is far from its last stages Bro, We have to clean a lot of mess in our country.

no need to enforce, provide!

you see most of population want there children to be educated even in most reserve area of KPK (i am citizen of KPK and have worked in reserved areas) problem is the school is like a dungeon , teachers are no where to be found and curriculum is confused as ever..i mean do you think an urdu medium student can become doctor or even go toa govt sector college?..yes i was asked this question by plain villager, followed by response that he did a better job by making his children mechanics and i had to agree to him. because by going to confused schools they would probably have been barely able to read some newspaper in urdu, not even that!

50Billion dollars?

Infact even 5Billion dollars FDI alone from chinese side will push our growth for more than 6%.

for 2-3 years than what?

 

[farhan_9909]

for 2-3 years than what?

With FDI of just 1.6Billion dollars,we achieved more than 4% growth and with almost similar,we might achieve close to 5% this year.

5Billion dollars each year from china let say 2-3Billion dollars from the rest of the world.With a constant 7-8Billion dollars FDI every year followed by stability onwards the zarbeazb,i think even maintaining 7% for a decade is possible

 

[ziaulislam]

i totally disagree , good A class engineers are available in our country , our standard of engineering universities is good . To support these engineers we have a huge pool of skilled labour available, in the steel mills , oil refineries , textile mills , construction companies all local skilled labour is working and there is no problem . I dont believe that only if we have education 95 percent , then we can achieve 6- 7 percent growth . I am an engineer and i know how much skilled labour is avaiblle in Pakistan . I believe our enterpenure and give has to go hand in hand and invest in our industrial production . This is the only way forward .

your positive attitude is good but it wouldnt change the reality and will not bring any foreign investment other than special investment with high returns and will still not get us sustainable growth

growth is easy making it sustainable to become a developed country is the real challenge

we are lucky to some how throw our huge uneducated labor into middle east other wise we would have been doomed
we need to understand the meaning of so called "skilled labour"

With FDI of just 1.6Billion dollars,we achieved more than 4% growth and with almost similar,we might achieve close to 5% this year.

5Billion dollars each year from china let say 2-3Billion dollars from the rest of the world.With a constant 7-8Billion dollars FDI every year followed by stability onwards the zarbeazb,i think even maintaining 7% for a decade is possible

do you think 4% gowht even for 50 years will change anything. we will be the same as we were in 1960s vs look at south korea who started worse than us in 1960s and were developed by mid 90s.
they knew that education, health and business/system reforms are needed.
we are looking for mega projects and disproportionate unsustainable growth.

 

[ito]

I was just wondering what would (almost) 50 billion dollar expected foreign investment do to Pakistan's GDP growth rate in the next decade?

Any investment will have positive affect on the economy as it expands the available resources for development. Again the effect of investment depends on the propose of the investment. If is for strategic or national security purpose not much is going to come out of the investment. If it for infrastructure, the returns would be gradual. If it in industry, the returns are immediate.

The best form of foreign direct investment is by foreign private companies to expand or setup their presence in the country

 

[farhan_9909]

do you think 4% gowht even for 50 years will change anything. we will be the same as we were in 1960s vs look at south korea who started worse than us in 1960s and were developed by mid 90s.
they knew that education, health and business/system reforms are needed.
we are looking for mega projects and disproportionate unsustainable growth.

I never said 4% is enough because anything below 5% for a developing country is bad.

 

[ziaulislam]

With FDI of just 1.6Billion dollars,we achieved more than 4% growth and with almost similar,we might achieve close to 5% this year.

5Billion dollars each year from china let say 2-3Billion dollars from the rest of the world.With a constant 7-8Billion dollars FDI every year followed by stability onwards the zarbeazb,i think even maintaining 7% for a decade is possible

lets say by a miracle we achieve that, after a decade the infrastructure projects wouldn't wok any more due to saturation and you will have 60 million uneducated mouths to feed who can do nothing..

you gdp would have been may be tripled(8% growth for 12 years with4% inflation) to say 750 million dollars but per capita would have been barely doubled due to population growth and there will be no space to expand any more. even with that percapita you will barely be low middle income country still at 130 position in HDI which we have been proudly holding for 60 years(i think we went down a bit) despite a history of 8-9 % growths here and there

see even china knows after decades of sustainable growth that it missed local spending and health reforms and is now scrambling to work it out.

problem is that we even dont know our problem!!!?

I never said 4% is enough because anything below 5% for a developing country is bad.

i am not discussing growth here, any investment will bring that.
i want to explain sustainable growth and development

 

[Faiez]

With FDI of just 1.6Billion dollars,we achieved more than 4% growth and with almost similar,we might achieve close to 5% this year.

5Billion dollars each year from china let say 2-3Billion dollars from the rest of the world.With a constant 7-8Billion dollars FDI every year followed by stability onwards the zarbeazb,i think even maintaining 7% for a decade is possible

and since when is growth rate a function of FDI ?

 

[ziaulislam]

in nutshell, whenever a new party comes int o power it looks for think tanks for sustainable growth, every time, every party gets the same answer and every party throws it in the dustbin !
the answer is education and health.

even PML N on day first came up with 180 billion rupees of emergency education package but than later on threw into dustbin

and since when is growth rate a function of FDI ?

let say we build a 2.3 billion dollar road this would instantly add 1% gdp growth to your country
50 billion in 5 years will instantly add 3-4% to existing growth our 5 years. i am not counting the other effects, just counting the project itself.

investment is not a function of growth rate but investment adds to growth

fact is if we miss education now, we are doomed for next 30 years, we we missed it in 60s and 70s and were doomed till today

 

[RAMPAGE]

I was just wondering what would (almost) 50 billion dollar expected foreign investment do to Pakistan's GDP growth rate in the next decade?

$33 billion would be used to produce 16520MW.

If the Govt manages to overcome the shortfall by 2018 then expect an approx 2% increase in GDP growth rate. (According to this official survey, Power outages have shaved
off annual GDP growth 2 percent)

www.google.com/url?q=http://www.fin...jAJOAo&usg=AFQjCNEbtM4c1zt2PBIXAdLqlAsbFG3swA

But don't think that all will be good after we solve the energy crisis. By exporting raw products instead of finished products, we have destroyed our industry and the impact will show for quite some time. It will take time to shift low tech labour intensive industry to Pakistan.

 

[Faiez]

let say we build a 2.3 billion dollar road this would instantly add 1% gdp growth to your country
50 billion in 5 years will instantly add 3-4% to existing growth our 5 years. i am not counting the other effects, just counting the project itself.

investment is not a function of growth rate but investment adds to growth

fact is if we miss education now, we are doomed for next 30 years, we we missed it in 60s and 70s and were doomed till today

My point is that growth is not dependant entirely on FDI. Small FDI is easy to get, big companies have millions of dollars to throw away at $hit countries like ours, its no big deal to them....And on top of that Pakistan gives them tax holidays and incentives and other non-sense....Whereas the real local investors know what the actual situation is and it's bad so they don't invest. All you need to do is make an environment where local investors would want to invest.

 

[ziaulislam]

My point is that growth is not dependant entirely on FDI. Small FDI is easy to get, big companies have millions of dollars to throw away at $hit countries like ours, its no big deal to them....And on top of that Pakistan gives them tax holidays and incentives and other non-sense....Whereas the real local investors know what the actual situation is and it's bad so they don't invest. All you need to do is make an environment where local investors would want to invest.

and the main driver for that environment is education. yes because of so many huge returns and tax holidays you will get such investments and but this wouldnt be a sustainable investment or growth

 

[M.SAAD]

The Literacy rate in Pakistan is 60%, means 40% population is still uneducated in the country..

While the literacy rates of US,UK,China are 99%. That pretty much sums it up.

 

[Gauss]

I was just wondering what would (almost) 50 billion dollar expected foreign investment do to Pakistan's GDP growth rate in the next decade?

50 billion in ten years would be 5 billion per year. 10% of 5 billion is 500 million. Pakistan's GDP is 232 billion. 500 million makes 0.2% of 232 billion. So there you have it, investment of 5 billion per year will add 0.2% to our GDP growth rate.

Edit : Take this estimate with a pinch of salt. I am not an economics expert.