A Light Sabre for the Third World: The FC-1 / JF-17

[syedjamilhaider]

Source:
grandestrategy.com/2007/06/light-sabre-for-third-world-fc-1-jf-17.htmlGrande Strategy: A Light Sabre for the Third World: The FC-1 / JF-17

This article attempts to highlight key aspects of the JF-17 and analyze its performance & capabilities, market potential, geo-strategic implications and potential future developments.I attempt to answer detractors of the program.Last but not the least, I look at who the key people worth following on the web are, and on whose’ knowledge this article is largely based on.

There are four other planes in the super light category competing along with the FC-1: the Tejas – incomplete and poorly designed; the Korean A-50 - yet to transform into a true single seat fighter; the FCK-1 – short legged beyond effective combat outside Taiwan; and the Gripen – the epitome of what a super light fighter should aim to achieve. Each of these planes has something that the FC-1 does not, and yet the FC-1 remains the best blend of compromises. Let us start by taking a closer look at the FC-1.



The avionics are coming off surprisingly nicely. I think the PAF has been pushing the Chinese avionics industry harder than the PLAAF. The cockpit seems more cleaner and "glassier" than the J-10 or even the J-11B, though it would be nice if the FC-1 gets the J-11B's wide angle HUD, a request that can be fulfilled in a moment's notice if the PAF asks for it. I like the low visibility radome, and the small pitot (used to measure angle of attack) won't interfere on the radar returns as much as the pitot on the J-10.

The KLJ-7 radar has an amazingly compact and well packaged back end, neat and small, not like the jungle of wires and switches like the radars on the J-8F and JH-7A, or for that matter on the Indian LCA.


Pitot head in the latest JF-17 has been replaced by a Rotary Multifunctional Probe. This new probe was produced by Chinese Department of Comprehensive Planning Department, China Aero Products Division, and Department of airborne equipment and technology development and in consultation with French company Thales.

The basic reason for the large scale changes to the FC-1 has been that Pakistan found her requirements going up, given the new Indian military buildup, with Su-30MKI and Mirage-2000s being fielded in numbers.Secondly, The US decision to sell advanced F-16s to Pakistan.Both these factors forced the FC-1 project team to improve the FC-1 to stay relevant.

Plug and play
The FC-1 program has from the very beginning been designed as a “plug and play” platform, with modularization being taken as far as possible.The chief designer has already stated that the radar, avionics and engines can be changed with minimal redesigning.The plane can therefore be customized to a far greater extent than anything that Chengdu has produced before.Coupled with this is that the plane has minimal restrictions and red tape, as say compared to the J-10.



The avionics are coming off surprisingly nicely. I think the PAF has been pushing the Chinese avionics industry harder than the PLAAF. The cockpit seems more cleaner and "glassier" than the J-10 or even the J-11B, though it would be nice if the FC-1 gets the J-11B's wide angle HUD, a request that can be fulfilled in a moment's notice if the PAF asks for it. I like the low visibility radome, and the small pitot (used to measure angle of attack) won't interfere on the radar returns as much as the pitot on the J-10.

The KLJ-7 radar has an amazingly compact and well packaged back end, neat and small, not like the jungle of wires and switches like the radars on the J-8F and JH-7A, or for that matter on the Indian LCA.


Pitot head in the latest JF-17 has been replaced by a Rotary Multifunctional Probe. This new probe was produced by Chinese Department of Comprehensive Planning Department, China Aero Products Division, and Department of airborne equipment and technology development and in consultation with French company Thales.

The basic reason for the large scale changes to the FC-1 has been that Pakistan found her requirements going up, given the new Indian military buildup, with Su-30MKI and Mirage-2000s being fielded in numbers.Secondly, The US decision to sell advanced F-16s to Pakistan.Both these factors forced the FC-1 project team to improve the FC-1 to stay relevant.





Read more: Grande Strategy

Read more: Grande Strategy

LGBs for the FC-1

The LS-6 appears likely to be the bread and butter precision bomb kit for the FC-1. The program was begun in 2003 and testing has now been completed, perfectly timed with induction of the JF-17s in Pakistan.Guidance is provided by a dual inertial package coupled with satellite navigation. Theweapons family will be capable of using three GPS systems, including the U.S.GPS, the Russian GLONASS and China's own Beidou system.The 500-kg LS-6 has a maximum launch range of 60 km.

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Grande Strategy

However, there is a caveat.The FC-1 is unlikely to get to these sales figures with the RD-93.

The bottleneck is not just Russian politics, but the quality and reliability of the engine itself.One cannot viably create a single fighter success story with an engine that has a rejection rate of 33% rejection rate, low MTBF, and costs more than the AL-31. The Taishan engine is ideal in this regard as it also opens up a future maintenance legacy, given that it will be used in the future Chinese twin-engined fighter.


Within the PLAAF, it is unlikely that China will go for the FC-1 from a purely technical perspective – given the range requirements related to the size of the country.However, at least 150 will be acquired, as the Chinese are known to honor their contracts.The other factor that could be a viable reason for acquiring the FC-1 would be political – the PLAAF would want to maintain its political clout and this often relates to a numbers game.While a smaller fighter force centered on the J-10 would be technically more favorable, it would mean that the PLAAF will be a small force, and as such will be seen that way by the other Chinese arms and within the CCCP politicos. However, there is one wild card still out there that has not been factored into either this discussion thus far or by any other commentator – the replacement for the J-10s and the Taishan engine.Let us consider this in some depth.


While originally the Taishan engine can be considered an additional appendage or a non-consequential sideshow, it could quickly evolve into a reason why the FC-1 can win out with the PLAAF.Consider that the J-10 ends production at around 500 and Chengdu begins producing J-XXs with twin Taishan engines.The ideal sidekick for such a plane would be a single engined fighter built around the Taishan.PLAAF gets this in the FC-1 and kills two birds with one stone – better logistics and employment for the thousands of Class B fighter squadrons.China’s fighter force does not go down, pilots do not end up getting laid off and ending up in foreign countries, China gets a viable export fighter and logistics for the PLAAF is significantly simplified.

This would be a far bigger strategic issue and perhaps I will need more time to think about it and figure out the ripple effects of this.One that comes first to my mind is pshamim’s hint that there is more brewing in China than the JF-17 and the J-10.Clearly, the PAF is also thinking longer term (as they are known to do) and are perhaps investing in countering the PAKFA and the mysterious MiG-E.I can clearly envision a future JF-17 iteration (Perhaps a JF-XX) that would follow the archetypal single engined fighter line and take it into the 5th generation.

I also see the PAF buying a future twin-engined stealth plane, perhaps as a high end, but most because psychologically every nation (or individuals even) tend to over the longer term imitate their enemy.This in fact is perhaps the biggest consequence of hate.If one looks at history, the US and Soviet militaries became mirror images of each other, by and large.I see a similar scenario in the Subcontinent.Thus do the Anakin Skywalkers of today become the Darth Vaders of tomorrow, hating till hate consumes them.How different are the Jews today vis-à-vis the Palestinians as they were to the Germans?Military tactics, equipment and even the very helmets they were look strikingly similar.Or the walled prison-cities of the Gaza Strip – they are no different from the walled and wired areas provided to them by the Germans.How different are US Evangelicals from Islamic Extremists?Ah, but perhaps I have gone of the topic here a bit.


Grande Strategy


Market viability

As a MiG-21 and F-5 replacement, there is obviously a huge market, perhaps a lot larger than everyone realizes. The large number of lesser-known Third World airforces in the world could all chip in to make a significant order. It is my belief that the FC-1 final count could be closer to1500. Below is indicated potential sales count by country that the FC-1 could possibly expect over the next 2 decades.

Country Projected Sales

Albania
20

Argentina
50

Azerbaijan
6

Bangladesh
20

Bolivia
30

China
150

Congo
30

Egypt
150

Eritrea
12

Ethiopia
30

Indonesia
6

Iran
150

Lebanon
6

Malaysia
40

Morocco
20

Myanmar
30

Nigeria
30

North Korea
200

Pakistan
250

Sri Lanka
12

Sudan
20

Syria
50

Tanzania
6

Thailand
40

Venezuela
40

Zimbabwe
30



However, there is a caveat. The FC-1 is unlikely to get to these sales figures with the RD-93.

The bottleneck is not just Russian politics, but the quality and reliability of the engine itself. One cannot viably create a single fighter success story with an engine that has a rejection rate of 33% rejection rate, low MTBF, and costs more than the AL-31. The Taishan engine is ideal in this regard as it also opens up a future maintenance legacy, given that it will be used in the future Chinese twin-engined fighter.

 

[MZUBAIR]

LONDON — Pakistan is making the rounds of Arab allies talking about its new fighter-jet. ShareThis

Officials said Pakistan has briefed such countries as Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Sudan on the new fighter, jointly developed with China.
Under an agreement with Beijing, a majority of the JF-17 could be produced and assembled in Pakistan, Middle East Newsline reported.

"The airplane would reach close to the capabilities of existing U.S. and Russian aircraft, but for about half the price," an official said.

Pakistani Defense Secretary Shahid Siddiq said eight countries have expressed interest in JF-17. So far, no export sales have been announced.
In March 2009, Pakistan signed a contract for 42 JF-17s for the air force. The contract with China's state-owned CATIC, called for coproduction of the aircraft, with the expectation that 15 would be manufactured in the first year of the project by the state-owned Pakistan Aeronautical Complex.

Pakistan has sought to become a significant military supplier to Gulf Cooperation Council and Middle East states. So far, Pakistan's leading military clients have been Saudi Arabia and Sudan.

The JF-17 program was launched in 1998 and the design was completed three years later. So far, eight prototypes have been sent to Pakistan for trials.

 

[Canaan]

Inshallah all success to Pakistan and of course China, you did a good job and deserve it.
I hope the good productivity and hard work by pakistanis would spill over and influence the arab people. We need to be self-reliant and able to take matters in our own hands instaed of being merely the sheep that are directed by their shepherd, which in our case isn't God but the West.

 

[Luftwaffe]

sayedjamil bhai Thailand is going for JAS Gripen, malaysia no news yet, bangladesh no news yet, China might order more than 150 later on after 2012 to replace its aging J-7s/A-5s, Azerbaijan might go for 12-20, Indonesia are offered all russian planes Russian market is open for them don't expect indonesia to buy FC-1/JF-17, Zimbabwe can't afford 30 might they might get out used F-7s after 2012 for their next 7-10 years, Egyptians might want to buy but US will offer to upgrade their F-16s and FC-1/JF-17 will be off the list isn't right at all.

MZUBAIR...Moroccans buying US F-16s might increase the fleet, Algerians have russian market open SU-30/MIG 29 purchases..Yes JF-17/FC-1 will have a fair market share but some of the countries mentioned are either for russian or US market unless we make them cancel those procurements and offer them juiced up JF-17.

Wished Saudis could replace their darn F-5s with JF-17s but heck US is hovering over their heads..same goes to Malaysia they have currently 11-12 squadrons of F-5 i really hope if Malaysia buys JF-17s it'll boost their Air Force replacing F-5 junkies.. but we can't predict we really might hit jackpot with countires who are operating oldies fleet like F-5 etc...

 

[aboutimeee]

And i dont think iran will buy 150 jf-17 either, they have there own big projects going on.
Aircraft and Helicopters

* Azarakhsh - modified copy of U.S. F-5 Freedom Fighter, one-seat fighter aircraft, and combat capable trainer. [1][2][3]
* Saegheh 80 - fighter aircraft. [4] Second generation Azarakhsh with a twin upright tail configuration.
* Shafaq - advanced light fighter/trainer, still in development. [5]
* IR.An-140. - licensed production of Russian Antonov An-140 [6]
* Parastoo - propeller-driven training aircraft. Reverse engineered Beech F33 Bonanza. [7][3][8]
* Dorna - training aircraft [9][3]
* JT2-2 Tazarv - third generation of the Dorna mentioned above.[2] Still in prototype stage.
* Simorgh(aircraft)- training aircraft.[10]
* Fajr F.3 - Indigenous trainer aircraft
* Panha 2091 - overhauled U.S. AH-1 Cobra refitted with indigenous components.[11]
* Shabaviz 2061 - overhauled U.S. Bell 206 JetRanger refitted with indigenous components.[11]
* Shabaviz 275 - overhauled U.S. Bell 205 JetRanger refitted with indigenous components[11]
* Bell 214 - Reverse engineered and built in Iran
* HESA Shahed 278 - Developed from Bell 206 & Panha Shabaviz 2061



PS: now i notice they have alot of trainer projects and this Saegheh 80 looks interesting.

 

[Zob]

i think countries in trested in JF-17 would be SOMALIA,SUDAN,MAYBE NORTH KOREA.....no big powers who have money to purcahse top of the line fighters would opt for JF-17s ....

 

[Arsalan]

well the export of the palne have to happen in order to make the project a success!


the project of JF17 will only move on if it get export orders as this will briing fundings to further improve and modify it into a state-of-the-art machine!
this is what made the F16z a big succes that it still is a big name in fighter planes export market, the reason being that the LM was abel to generate funds by exporting the plane and upgrading it inensively in each comming block!

 

[Hyde]

i know The Arab countries has good money to spare but they will not consider JF-17 as their option but don't also forget they have financially helped us in past whether its military aircrafts or the ecnomy

I am expecting if not large but at least few squadrons towards Arab countries and this has happened in past with Trainer Aircrafts as well. I am pretty sure they will Insha'Allah buy some squadrons from us to further reduce the price or simply donate some money if not interested at all

 

[yh1]

Bangladesh and Sri Lanka might also be buyers.

 

[saiko]

1500 seems rather optimistic.

Most Mig-21 or derivative operators paid a fraction of the cost of the JF-17 (even adjusting for inflation) per unit.

Assuming they do choose to upgrade to the JF-17 from the Mig-21, they will maintain fewer units.

 

[Arsalan]

reply to zaki shafqat post:

well why dont we focus more on exploiting market potential and our resources, both technical and manual!
brother no personal attack or offense, but we must not keep relaying on donations, i mean come on yaar, we must develop the JF17 to an extent that countries feel pride in flying them, we must look for some initial low scale exports, all of us know countries like azerbijan have shown intrest in the plane, lets make them know it is the best they can have with this sort of price tag. once we have sold some planes we must use those funds in further improving the standards, this money should not go to SWISS ACCOUNTS that how we can make JF17 a fighter the worldwide users would be proud of!!!

what do you people say!

 

[muslim282]

First of all, wether or not anybody purchases the thunder will make no dent to pakistans future plans as both china and pakistan do have a requirement in huge numbers for these jets.
Yes orders and sales will help both nations financially as they do to all nations and companies selling arms. Another thing is that this is in itself a massive leap for pakistan, as their are very few nations that actually manufacture and sell jets.
I don,t know about the numbers but I bet you their will be many interested parties. You see when the west and europe sell weapons they are usually downgraded or of reduced capability. In some cases (as for israel) they are given a clear edge over their neighbours(F-16,s) ie. egypt, jordan etc.
One of the things about the thunder was that it was meant to be a real bang for the buck eg. BVR, room for AESA etc in the future. This would allow many countries access to jets which may not be superior to their western counter parts but at least not downgraded models held to ransom through spare parts.
Integrated to BVR and stand off weapons such as the SD10 and RAAD this would be a considerable step up by countries operating planes such as Mig21,23,27 and older 29,s. Also mirage III, F1, F5s, etc.
I do believe that not 1500 but rather at least their is potential for around 200 to 500 apart from china and pakistan.
So in the end the combined numbers of all nations using could be 1000+.
This would be a very strong way of selling the project to potential partners ie:- engine manufacturers and avionics suppliers in the west especially considering their is a rescession and arms companies are taking a bit of a battering with finances and jobs.
One other thing, as we know mirage2000 production has come to an end, the blue prints and manufacturing rights/equipment along with all the know how was offered to india on condition they order the rafale in the MRCA contest. But they refused (l don,t know why?).
This has meant that the m2000 engine the snecma m53-p2 is of no use in future french plans ie. the rafale. It would be ideal for the thunder and is alot more reliable than any russian trash. Could their be a possibility to aquire such an engine (TOT).

 

[Arsalan]

yes integrating a more powerfull engine to the planes meant to be build for the PAF will be a nice idea!

for export there are a number of options as the JF17 is said to be manufactured keeping in mind the space for these modifications, so if the M2000 engine is good enough to attract or satisfy export customers we must go fot it with ToT if possible.

 

[satishkumarcsc]

Jf 17 is a good product. It is a cheap light weight aircraft. It is more like a Tata Nano to the fighter aircraft market. If it dosent sell then it is only bad marketing. China has huge experience and clout in those countries. Most probably they might all buy it.

 

[imiakhtar]

Source:
grandestrategy.com/2007/06/light-sabre-for-third-world-fc-1-jf-17.htmlGrande Strategy: A Light Sabre for the Third World: The FC-1 / JF-17


However, there is a caveat. The FC-1 is unlikely to get to these sales figures with the RD-93.

The bottleneck is not just Russian politics, but the quality and reliability of the engine itself. One cannot viably create a single fighter success story with an engine that has a rejection rate of 33% rejection rate, low MTBF, and costs more than the AL-31. The Taishan engine is ideal in this regard as it also opens up a future maintenance legacy, given that it will be used in the future Chinese twin-engined fighter.

Erm no, there is no caveat. Regardless of whether it gets a new engine or not, the JF-17 will be lucky if it breaks the 500 mark especially in this credit crunch.

North Korea order 200???

Whoever came up with this list was obviously having a laugh.