A Global Nuclear Winter: Avoiding The Unthinkable In India And Pakistan

[Soumitra]

In your delusions and blabbering of "massive disproportional" theory you guys fail to account for the fact that Pakistan has twice as many nukes as Bharat and it will be Bharat at the receiving end of massive and disproportional nuclear response from Pakistan.

You forget that area wise Pakistan is much smaller than India. The Massive Dispropotional response will be to your Tactical Nuclear Weapons which you consider as a silver bullet

We have advanced Satellite Technology. Dont you think we dont know the location of most of your nukes

The first target of our response will be these nuclear sites plus ofcourse the major civilian centers. If after surviving these first wave of attacks you still have some nukes go ahead and try to use them

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Why? Except for pride, there is no reason for Pakistan not to be similar to Bangladesh. It will eventually lead to the creation of a South Asian Union. So eventually there won't be an India either. If there's no potential for conflict, people will no longer think like you do.

Unity is an existential threat to both countries, and that's a good thing.

It's too bad that your country chose military junta and Islamism based on a fictional enemy rather than sticking to the time tested democratic and secular values. Muslims are thriving in India even as a minority.

You forget that area wise Pakistan is much smaller than India. The Massive Dispropotional response will be to your Tactical Nuclear Weapons which you consider as a silver bullet

We have advanced Satellite Technology. Dont you think we dont know the location of most of your nukes

The first target of our response will be these nuclear sites plus ofcourse the major civilian centers. If after surviving these first wave of attacks you still have some nukes go ahead and try to use them

So what happened to thise advanced satellites after mumbai 2008? If you have advanced satellites tracking our nukes, we have too courtesy of China. Unless india does not attack and destroy Pakistan in the next 15 years, we will by then have enough advanced high-yield nukes to wipe india off the face of the planet:

http://isis-online.org/isis-reports...g-nuclear-weapons-time-for-pakistan-to-rever/

The above article is the PRECISE reason why india was powerless to directly attack Pakistan after mumbai 2008 despite the fact that they are more than 7x bigger than us and have abundant access to the world's most advanced weapons systems whilst we are denied this privilege

 

[randomradio]

So what happened to thise advanced satellites after mumbai 2008? If you have advanced satellites tracking our nukes, we have too courtesy of China. Unless india does not attack and destroy Pakistan in the next 15 years, we will by then have enough advanced high-yield nukes to wipe india off the face of the planet:

http://isis-online.org/isis-reports...g-nuclear-weapons-time-for-pakistan-to-rever/

The above article is the PRECISE reason why india was powerless to directly attack Pakistan after mumbai 2008 despite the fact that they are more than 7x bigger than us and has abundant access to the world's most advanced weapons systems whilst we are denied this privilege

Do you know that the Russians are no longer an existential threat to the West?

 

[randomradio]

Pride and self respect. India is NOT a superior country NOR are its people in any way superior to others, the day that arrogance ends in India; the day we will have actual peace in South Asia

India is superior based on its size, economy, industrial capacity, global leverage etc. This is not arrogance, this is fact. And it was true even in 1950. But we are capable of setting all that aside.

Never forget that it is your country that made an enemy out of India.

Don't forget that we even settled the border dispute and EEZ dispute in BD's favour. Where is the arrogance there?

http://www.news18.com/news/india/in...border-dispute-ink-22-agreements-1002652.html
The exchange of documents paves way for the operationalisation of the 1974 India-Bangladesh LBA that provides for exchange of 161 enclaves between the two countries. A total 111 border enclaves will be transferred to Bangladesh in exchange for 51 that will become part of India.

Now you can look forward to your country facing crisis after crisis, while your sister country will grow leaps and bounds because they have true peace with India.

 

[Sheikh Rauf]

Any Nuclear War Realted thread should understand the following points

To sum up the danger for the nuclear winter is only from Pakistan side.. to prevent this Pakistan has to do the following

1 Do not Encourage, Train, Fund, give sanctury to terrorists who want to harm India and Indian interests

2 In case of full scale war/limited war/ border scrimish do not use tactical nuclear weapons

Basically do not provoke India and no nukes will be used

Pakistan is small country with less numbers of army. India sud know that if they trying to be smart or funny they sud know Pakistan gonna take it as they wanna. just recently india gave another reason to Pakistan to cross line of control and capture as many posts as they want after fake drama of surgical and uri, its cuz india started, but as responsible state Pakistan is not giving any wrong signals.
But we will punish hard if you bring your dark A&& cross the border we have less cities and less people to lose but we make sure we will have more powers to bust as many people and cities if india impose war simple as that.
india sud learn to live peacfully with its neighbour than investing on terrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Kashmir is shaking punjab and if punjab wake up the whole india gonna be shaking .
its better to ask your terrorist PM mody to not to interfere in blouchistan and karachi.

 

[third eye]

I would respectfully call your opinion either innocent or sanctimonious. India wants hegemony in South Asia both in economy and foreign policy. The only growth they see is India's growth and that too in the way India wants it, anything opposing such hegemonic policies is either "opposing peace" or "terrorist". Any state that does not lift up their saree and bend over like BD is considered disruptive to "growth".

My opinion is not sanctimonious at all- far from it.

India does enjoy a lead in the region as far as economy is concerned , we have a huge domestic market whose demand keeps growing.

As far as the rest of your observation is concerned , to me & most Indians its the persecution complex which led to the creation of Pakistan which still manifests in the mind ( you may also call it a poor loser syndrome). This has to go if both our nations have to prosper.

If Pakistan did not get Kashmir, India too did not get its occupied region to the west and Gilgit + the region you call Northern Areas. The truth is we both have enough, instead of lamenting what we do not have , we need to cherish what we do for it was once something only hoped for.

 

[Spitfighter]

There are no ideologies on the J&K issue.

Its (a) Water and ( b) Necessity to keep the bogey alive for it feeds countless on both sides .



What then is the suggested Plan B ?


Why do you feel the partition is not complete & what would it take to complete it ?

Well like I said in my previous comment:

"A more pragmatic and long term solution would be to "trace" the attack back to the Kashmir valley, blame separatists and humanely deport 500,000 Kashmiris over the LoC. Pakistan will not attack Kashmiri civilians and we've already got the entire place on lock down as it is. We've got to finish what we started in 1947, that's the only way we'll achieve any measure of peace and security in South Asia.

Source: https://defence.pk/threads/a-global...e-in-india-and-pakistan.465971/#ixzz4Sjv75KS8"

I do not believe Kashmiris in the valley want to remain in India, and India isn't in a position to renegotiate its borders. The only way we can secure that region is by deporting separatists into Azad Kashmir. We can't maintain 300,000 troops there indefinitely and we've got to address Pakistan's ability to foment chaos within our borders by forcing out disenfranchised folks.

We cannot fight Pakistan and we sure as hell shouldn't risk crossing the IB. The only message that'll send to the Pakistanis and the world is that the India/Pakistan border is a nuclear flash point.

......saying Pakistan and India should be allies is like saying the Jews and the Nazis should have been allies.....

I used to believe that too so I'll forgive you for making the same mistake.

We're neighbors and have much more in common than either side likes to admit. Furthermore, the rest of the world DOES NOT CARE about our perceived differences. They've been using us against each other for decades, and we've been playing along like fools.

South Asia is still one of the poorest regions on the planet. Pakistanis are quick to claim "foreign" ancestry, but tell me, has an Iranian or Arab ever proudly claimed south Asian ancestry? has the world ever looked to us for leadership or answers? We talk about becoming "superpowers" and "Islamic powerhouses" but how are Pakistanis and Indians treated around the world? Does anyone give Pakistanis a visa on arrival like they do for Americans? I've seen countless Indian scientists here in states slog for decades just for US citizenship. People are willing to go to hell and back, just for a life outside South Asia.

South Asians will never achieve any measure of success or respect unless we learn to work together.

We're moving towards driver less cars and mining asteroids here in the states, while India and Pakistan are still busy arguing over a 60 year old issue. Even the Chinese cooperate with Taiwan, and their economy is now over 10 trillion dollars.

 

[SQ8]

My opinion is not sanctimonious at all- far from it.

India does enjoy a lead in the region as far as economy is concerned , we have a huge domestic market whose demand keeps growing.

As far as the rest of your observation is concerned , to me & most Indians its the persecution complex which led to the creation of Pakistan which still manifests in the mind ( you may also call it a poor loser syndrome). This has to go if both our nations have to prosper.

If Pakistan did not get Kashmir, India too did not get its occupied region to the west and Gilgit + the region you call Northern Areas. The truth is we both have enough, instead of lamenting what we do not have , we need to cherish what we do for it was once something only hoped for.

Again, you have shot on a completely tangent. My comment was NEVER on India's economy but its requirement for hegemony. You are embodying that very condescending attitude that is the core reason for the angst. To simply dismiss the aspirations and security concerns of other nations as "persecution" complex or unfounded only reinforces these nations perceptions that India(and Indians) are generally sanctimonious and arrogant without any regard for other people besides their 4 walls. Until this attitude of being the center of the world ends, India will continue to face such issues of angst with neighbors.
No amount of "persecution complex" tangents will change that.

India is superior based on its size, economy, industrial capacity, global leverage etc. This is not arrogance, this is fact. And it was true even in 1950. But we are capable of setting all that aside.

Never forget that it is your country that made an enemy out of India.

Don't forget that we even settled the border dispute and EEZ dispute in BD's favour. Where is the arrogance there?

http://www.news18.com/news/india/in...border-dispute-ink-22-agreements-1002652.html
The exchange of documents paves way for the operationalisation of the 1974 India-Bangladesh LBA that provides for exchange of 161 enclaves between the two countries. A total 111 border enclaves will be transferred to Bangladesh in exchange for 51 that will become part of India.

Now you can look forward to your country facing crisis after crisis, while your sister country will grow leaps and bounds because they have true peace with India.

You settled in BD's favor because you essentially control every action they undertake. Settling enclaves into BD only reaffirms the need to let the newly formed nation of Bangladesh commit itself into being indebted to India. Cementing yourselves into their institutions where they technically are no longer an independent country where foreign policy is concerned.

You forget that area wise Pakistan is much smaller than India. The Massive Dispropotional response will be to your Tactical Nuclear Weapons which you consider as a silver bullet

We have advanced Satellite Technology. Dont you think we dont know the location of most of your nukes

The first target of our response will be these nuclear sites plus ofcourse the major civilian centers. If after surviving these first wave of attacks you still have some nukes go ahead and try to use them

Good luck with that. It is the same folly the US made which had MUCH MUCH MUCH more satellites than India ever had per square foot of Russia as compared to Pakistan.

Like I say to all the optimistic Indians on a nuclear exchange; lets count the charred bodies and wrecked environment after its over and see who lost more.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Well like I said in my previous comment:

"A more pragmatic and long term solution would be to "trace" the attack back to the Kashmir valley, blame separatists and humanely deport 500,000 Kashmiris over the LoC. Pakistan will not attack Kashmiri civilians and we've already got the entire place on lock down as it is. We've got to finish what we started in 1947, that's the only way we'll achieve any measure of peace and security in South Asia.

Source: https://defence.pk/threads/a-global...e-in-india-and-pakistan.465971/#ixzz4Sjv75KS8"

I do not believe Kashmiris in the valley want to remain in India, and India isn't in a position to renegotiate its borders. The only way we can secure that region is by deporting separatists into Azad Kashmir. We can't maintain 300,000 troops there indefinitely and we've got to address Pakistan's ability to foment chaos within our borders by forcing out disenfranchised folks.

We cannot fight Pakistan and we sure as hell shouldn't risk crossing the IB. The only message that'll send to the Pakistanis and the world is that the India/Pakistan border is a nuclear flash point.



I used to believe that too so I'll forgive you for making the same mistake.

We're neighbors and have much more in common than either side likes to admit. Furthermore, the rest of the world DOES NOT CARE about our perceived differences. They've been using us against each other for decades, and we've been playing along like fools.

South Asia is still one of the poorest regions on the planet. Pakistanis are quick to claim "foreign" ancestry, but tell me, has an Iranian or Arab ever proudly claimed south Asian ancestry? has the world ever looked to us for leadership or answers? We talk about becoming "superpowers" and "Islamic powerhouses" but how are Pakistanis and Indians treated around the world? Does anyone give Pakistanis a visa on arrival like they do for Americans? I've seen countless Indian scientists here in states slog for decades just for US citizenship. People are willing to go to hell and back, just for a life outside South Asia.

South Asians will never achieve any measure of success or respect unless we learn to work together.

We're moving towards driver less cars and mining asteroids here in the states, while India and Pakistan are still busy arguing over a 60 year old issue. Even the Chinese cooperate with Taiwan, and their economy is now over 10 trillion dollars.

China & Turkey aside, I could not care less about the rest of the world or what they think. They couldn't save the Iraqis and Afghans, and they most certainly could not save Pakistan if we were super weak too. I'm just concerned about Pakistan and reality. And the reality is that india is an existential threat to Pakistan and we must be able to neutralise that threat. That's all that matters. Everything else is meaningless. Pakistan is in my heart, blood, body and soul. If something threatens something this sacred, it must be annihilated.

My opinion is not sanctimonious at all- far from it.

India does enjoy a lead in the region as far as economy is concerned , we have a huge domestic market whose demand keeps growing.

As far as the rest of your observation is concerned , to me & most Indians its the persecution complex which led to the creation of Pakistan which still manifests in the mind ( you may also call it a poor loser syndrome). This has to go if both our nations have to prosper.

If Pakistan did not get Kashmir, India too did not get its occupied region to the west and Gilgit + the region you call Northern Areas. The truth is we both have enough, instead of lamenting what we do not have , we need to cherish what we do for it was once something only hoped for.

Pakistan was created as a nation for a unique beautiful race of people with a unique culture and way of life. Pakistan was created to preserve all of this. Away from foreign oppression and interference from those of whom we have nothing in common with.

Pakistan has very little in common with the rest of South Asia, so the regional politics and economics have very little to do with us. Pakistan's future lies with Turkey, China and the nations West of us of whom we share the most in common with. For that reason, Pakistan doesn't have to do anything vis-a-vis India to prosper or be successful.

As time goes on, Pakistan will become more disconnected and less involved with South Asia and it's shenanigans. As a matter of fact this is already happening.

 

[randomradio]

You settled in BD's favor because you essentially control every action they undertake. Settling enclaves into BD only reaffirms the need to let the newly formed nation of Bangladesh commit itself into being indebted to India. Cementing yourselves into their institutions where they technically are no longer an independent country where foreign policy is concerned.

Incorrect. Did you forget about the 2 Chinese subs they recently purchased? Or the fact that Indian firms are competing with Chinese firms in developing BD's infrastructure.

You are hiding behind an India bogey only to cover up your weaknesses. There are many small countries around that have successfully staved off larger countries when it comes to influence.

Take Sri Lanka as an example, India doesn't have a lot of influence there, and they are doing their own thing, even though they have shot themselves in the foot dealing with the Chinese. But that was just bad policy making, nothing to do with India or China.

Nepal is also doing its utmost to balance China and India.

Mongolia is a recent example, when they reached out to India to stave off Chinese pressure.

Myanmar has successfully balanced its relationship between India and China.

Are you saying Pakistan is incapable of doing even half of what the other countries have done?

You believe India is influencing BD's foreign policy, but that's wrong. Due to the lasting peace we have had, BD's foreign policies and India's are in tune with each other. Pretty soon we will even be sharing infrastructure which will help connect the NE with the rest of India and ASEAN and that's in BD's interest.

Otoh, one can argue that it is Pakistan that has successfully managed to outsource its foreign policy to Beijing. Give it a decade, when the time comes to start paying back the Chinese loans, Chinese banks will even determine your domestic policies.

 

[Spitfighter]

I'm just concerned about Pakistan and reality. .

You say you're concerned about reality and go on to claim Pakistan's future lies with Turkey, China and "friendly" western powers.

You are deluding yourself into thinking any of these folks give a rats a$$ about Pakistan, its people or its culture.

The far right is rising throughout the west, muslims are attacked every other day in the UK and US. The Turks, ironically, consider themselves to be "above" the rest of the middle east and the islamic world. They've been actively trying to join the EU for nearly a decade and think they have far more in common with Europe than they do with the middle east.

Don't be so quick to praise foreigners bro. They've done nothing to earn your praise or your trust. Turkey offers visas on arrival for US and EU citizens. I sincerely doubt your "muslim brothers" would extend you the same privilege. The same goes for the GCC and the rest of the Islamic world too. These guys have done absolutely nothing for Pakistan (or India) and yet an overwhelming majority of South Asians foolishly try to one up each other by siding with foreign powers.

I know you aren't going to believe me, but I'll say it anyway. India does not pose an existential threat to Pakistan. Destabilizing a nuclear power with 180 million people is not in our interest by a long shot.

Our concerns primarily revolve around terrorism and asymmetric warfare. Attacking Pakistan will only make those threats worse.

The US could not be as powerful and rich as it is today if it was constantly at war with Canada. No country can project power if its an unsafe neighborhood.

I know things between India and Pakistan are heated at the moment, but its nothing we haven't seen over the last 60 odd years. This sht is bound to keep happening until we learn to get along. Pakistan's future doesn't lie with a country half way across the world, it lies with the 2+ trillion dollar economy right next door. Its safety doesn't depend on Chinese benevolence, it depends on getting along with its long lost pals to the east.

It'll probably take a few serious skirmishes and near brushes with nuclear annihilation before south Asians finally wake up, but I know we'll eventually get there.

Give it a decade, when the time comes to start paying back the Chinese loans, Chinese banks will even determine your domestic policies.

I don't understand why anyone would assume a foreign power looks out for anyone but itself.

White people have built the most powerful military alliance in recorded history after having killed 73 million of each other, and yet desis can't figure out how to get along.

Like I say to all the optimistic Indians on a nuclear exchange; lets count the charred bodies and wrecked environment after its over and see who lost more.

Pretty sure neither one of us would walk away from that scenario.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

You say you're concerned about reality and go on to claim Pakistan's future lies with Turkey, China and "friendly" western powers.

You are deluding yourself into thinking any of these folks give a rats a$$ about Pakistan, its people or its culture.

The far right is rising throughout the west, muslims are attacked every other day in the UK and US. The Turks, ironically, consider themselves to be "above" the rest of the middle east and the islamic world. They've been actively trying to join the EU for nearly a decade and think they have far more in common with Europe than they do with the middle east.

Don't be so quick to praise foreigners bro. They've done nothing to earn your praise or your trust. Turkey offers visas on arrival for US and EU citizens. I sincerely doubt your "muslim brothers" would extend you the same privilege. The same goes for the GCC and the rest of the Islamic world too. These guys have done absolutely nothing for Pakistan (or India) and yet an overwhelming majority of South Asians foolishly try to one up each other by siding with foreign powers.

I know you aren't going to believe me, but I'll say it anyway. India does not pose an existential threat to Pakistan. Destabilizing a nuclear power with 180 million people is not in our interest by a long shot.

Our concerns primarily revolve around terrorism and asymmetric warfare. Attacking Pakistan will only make those threats worse.

The US could not be as powerful and rich as it is today if it was constantly at war with Canada. No country can project power if its an unsafe neighborhood.

I know things between India and Pakistan are heated at the moment, but its nothing we haven't seen over the last 60 odd years. This sht is bound to keep happening until we learn to get along. Pakistan's future doesn't lie with a country half way across the world, it lies with the 2+ trillion dollar economy right next door. Its safety doesn't depend on Chinese benevolence, it depends on getting along with its long lost pals to the east.

It'll probably take a few serious skirmishes and near brushes with nuclear annihilation before south Asians finally wake up, but I know we'll eventually get there.



I don't understand why anyone would assume a foreign power looks out for anyone but itself.

White people have built the most powerful military alliance in recorded history after having killed 73 million of each other, and yet desis can't figure out how to get along.



Pretty sure neither one of us would walk away from that scenario.

I said the nations "West of us of whom we share the most in common with", which means the Middle Eastern/Central Asian nations of whom we can form a natural economic alliance with. I did NOT suggest in any way that was Western European nations.

Pakistan should not do business with of form partnerships with Muslim nations but should with India????????????????.........Yes because the other Muslim nations have fought 4 wars with Pakistan and they all wholeheartedly want to destroy Pakistan. Muslim nations have done nothing for Pakistan but india has??????????......WTF!!!!!!!....CPEC and Pakistan's nuclear weapons program was given to Pakistan by india according to your twisted logic then.

 

[Spitfighter]

I said the nations "West of us of whom we share the most in common with", which means the Middle Eastern/Central Asian nations of whom we can form a natural economic alliance with. I did NOT suggest in any way that was Western European nations.
.

The Arabs/Iranians have no love for Pakistanis either. I say this as someone who was born and raised in the middle east.

Don't take my word for it, ask any other Pakistani or Indian living in the GCC. They would never invite you to their house for Eid, but we'd have you over for Diwali every year. They'd never pay you as much as another arab.

I can't believe I have to explain racism to a Pakistani living in the west. Aren't you currently in the UK? you should've seen all this first hand dude.

they all wholeheartedly want to destroy Pakistan.

Again, destroying Pakistan would make terrorism worse. We have differences and we fight, yes, but that doesn't mean we're meant to be mortal enemies. The US fought the UK back in the day and now they're allies.

Pakistan's nuclear weapons program

Dude the Arabs didn't help you acquire nukes. A Q Khan, a Pakistani national hero, stole the technology from the west. If anything, Pakistan probably helped the Arabs get their hands on nuclear blueprints.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

The Arabs/Iranians have no love for Pakistanis either. I say this as someone who was born and raised in the middle east.

Don't take my word for it, ask any other Pakistani or Indian living in the GCC. They would never invite you to their house for Eid, but we'd have you over for Diwali every year. They'd never pay you as much as another arab.

I can't believe I have to explain racism to a Pakistani living in the west. Aren't you currently in the UK? you should've seen all this first hand dude.



Again, destroying Pakistan would make terrorism worse. We have differences and we fight, yes, but that doesn't mean we're meant to be mortal enemies. The US fought the UK back in the day and now they're allies.



Dude the Arabs didn't help you acquire nukes. A Q Khan, a Pakistani national hero, stole the technology from the west. If anything, Pakistan probably helped the Arabs get their hands on nuclear blueprints.

I could not care less about people to people relations. It means nothing to me. It's all conjecture. Pakistanis in the UK get on well with Brazilians and people of Latin American heritage. It doesn't make us "the same people" or our nations as allies. As far as I know, NO Arab or Middle Eastern country has ever threatened nuking Pakistan or destroying us. They are NOT an existential threat to us. India however is. And that's all that concerns me. The only thing that matters is HOW we nullify that threat. I could not care less if an Arab or anyone else for that matter invites me around for tea or not.

 

[Spitfighter]

I could not care less about people to people relations. It means nothing to me. It's all conjecture..

Buddy people to people relations is how "natural" alliances are forged. There is a reason the US gets on with the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

You're probably still relatively young but ethnicity, race and culture play a much bigger role than you think.

We've been arguing about this in circles for a while, so I'll just end with a few points to summarize my stance on this:

1. India and Pakistan are neighbors, we have no choice but to get along.

2. India has a no first use policy, we won't nuke anyone unless they nuke us first.

3. India will not attack and destabilize Pakistan because we aren't equipped to handle the resultant humanitarian/economic/security crisis.

4. Nobody ever looks to us (India or Pakistan) and proudly proclaims how some members of their family look like a typical desi. We need to grow a spine and quit putting foreigners on a pedestal. There are millions of light skinned desis, but there are hundreds of millions of brown desis too.

5. How will you ever "nullify" a nation with 1.2 billion people and the second largest standing military on earth? If we can't destroy you, you can't destroy us either. We both have nukes, we'll be fine so long as nobody does anything (too) stupid.