6 trillion barrels oil in Baluchistan?

[Proud to be Pakistani]

In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Pakistan receives an unchanged composite score of 30 which now ranks the country equal ninth out of 14 states included in the Asia Pacific region, alongside the Philippines. The overall business environment can be considered unattractive in a regional context, thanks to a high level of perceived economic and political risk offsetting better-than-average volume growth. Privatisation is now moving ahead rapidly, with an improving regulatory regime and a better competitive landscape. Large-scale opportunities for IOCs are limited, which means Pakistan will become of increasingly less importance to the major energy groups.

Pakistan Oil & Gas Forecast Report - Business Monitor International

 

[fatman17]

Its no brainer; of course its not true

a agree - total exageration. pakistan will remain a energy deficent country

 

[Neo]

The figure is exaggerated although its very likely that major oil and gas discoveries will be made in future. Balochistan belongs to the same continental sell as Iran and borders the Arab Pennnisular shell, both are rich in carobon-hyderates.

Attemps are being made to intensify drilling in Makran Coast and Indus Delta thru JV's enabling Pakistan to apply latest Infra-red mapping technologies.
I personally believe that there's enough oil to meet domestic demand with a potential for export.

 

[Neo]

The Pakistan Oil & Gas Report​

Independent 5-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Pakistan.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Pakistan’s oil and gas industry.

Competitive intelligence, Pakistani oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Pakistan.
The Pakistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2007, and features latest available data and forecasts for Pakistan to end-2011 covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Pakistan, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Pakistan.

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BMI's Executive Summary

The latest Pakistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 1.54% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2011, while providing 0.79% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.4mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 24.84mn b/d last year. It should average 25.68mn b/d in 2007 and then rise to around 29.04mn b/d by 2011. In terms of natural gas, the region last year consumed 409bcm, with demand of 620bcm targeted for 2011, representing growth of 51.4% between 2006 and 2011. Production of 329bcm in 2006 should reach 478bcm in 2011 (+45.0%), but implies net imports rising from 80bcm per annum to 142bcm. Pakistan's share of gas consumption in 2006 was an estimated 7.50%, while its share of production was 9.32%. By 2011, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.98%, with the country accounting for 9.42% of supply.

Global oil demand growth is expected to be around 2.0% this year, with Asia Pacific and the CEE regions dominating. This is an encouraging rate of market expansion, given a relatively uncertain economic picture and high commodity prices. Our oil price projections for 2007 as a whole are revised upwards from the last quarterly report. We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$59 per barrel, compared with the US$55 estimate provided by our last two quarterly reports. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$62.83, WTI averaging US$61.25/bbl, and Urals at US$59.42/bbl.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2007 is now forecast by BMI at 6.4%, down from 6.6% last year. In 2008, growth is put at 6.6%, followed by 6.7% in 2009/10 and 6.8% in 2011. Several statecontrolled oil and gas companies are in the throes of privatisation, and already work with IOCs in the upstream segment. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 63,000b/d by 2011, with the country able to pump an estimated 55,000b/d this year. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 4% per annum to 2011, implying demand of 448,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 385,000b/d by 2011. Gas demand is set to rise from 30.7bcm last year to 49.4bcm by 2011.

In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Pakistan receives an unchanged composite score of 30 which now ranks the country equal ninth out of 14 states included in the Asia Pacific region, alongside the Philippines. The overall business environment can be considered unattractive in a regional context, thanks to a high level of perceived economic and political risk offsetting better-than-average volume growth. Privatisation is now moving ahead rapidly, with an improving regulatory regime and a better competitive landscape. Large-scale opportunities for IOCs are limited, which means Pakistan will become of increasingly less importance to the major energy groups.

Pakistan Oil & Gas Forecast Report - Business Monitor International

 

[roadrunner]

The figure is exaggerated although its very likely that major oil and gas discoveries will be made in future. Balochistan belongs to the same continental sell as Iran and borders the Arab Pennnisular shell, both are rich in carobon-hyderates.

Attemps are being made to intensify drilling in Makran Coast and Indus Delta thru JV's enabling Pakistan to apply latest Infra-red mapping technologies.
I personally believe that there's enough oil to meet domestic demand with a potential for export.

I agree. I doubt oil and gas suddenly stops at Iran. I'm pretty sure that Balochistan has oil and obviously it has gas. It's largely unexplored though. Which will be a good thing for Pakistan's future. Things are shaping up well for Pakistan since it can nearly defend itself. All that's needed is a purge of the corrupt criminals who will take power (probably bought their votes anyhow), and then Pakistanis can enjoy their own oil wealth in the future.

 

[moha199]

First of all its not a news report but a report of Geological survey of pakistan.

Yes surveys cannot be hundred percent accurate and they cannot be depended upon.

But surveys are based on geo location.Pakistan as located on the place where three plates Indian,eurassian,Arabian.The places where these plates collide are also rich in minerals.

More over the satellite imagery and other techniques makes it possible to guess resources.

So even if we consider 5 % of 6 trillion barrels oil then even that is 300 billion barrels oil are very high.


Besides it we have REKODIQ reserves.Where there are at least 2 billion tons gold where each ton is sold at 5000 $.So the alone are worth of 10 trillion $.


Thats the reason US is supporting BLA and it wants to occupy that.

Wow very good information dude!!!!!

 

[moha199]

I feel disturbed hearing this because some pessimistic conclusions loom in my head:

* What if this is true and this is the reason the USA invaded Afghanistan, so it could steal Balochistan and prevent Pakistan from earning $100 billion a year in oil revenue? Imagine how incredibly powerful Pakistan could become with that kind of money injected each year in pure profits. National debt paid off forever in 6 months!

* What if even Pakistan's allies Saudi Arabia and UAE have made a secret deal with the USA to help steal Balochistan away. They can argue with the USA that look guys, Pakistan has 160 million people so you can be guaranteed they will spend all their money on themselves but Balochistan is tiny like we guys so if we all get together and break up pakistan in three or four pieces then we can all share the loot and rip off the Baloch people by putting some puppets in power.

I mean look at all these strange maps that keep showing up that have an independent Balochistan nation. This independent nation would have a tiny population of 10 million if you added Irani Balochistan, Pakistani Balochistan and some of Afghan Balochistan. 10 million people only and so much oil means a weak nation with no protection which will have puppets install who will make sure all the wealth is looted.

Why is there no talk from Nawaz Sharif, Zardari, Musharaff or even the transitional president about developing Baloch oil? Have they been bribed or blackmailed to keep quiet about this great potential? Are they all puppets? Why did Musharaff not try to develop any oil since 1999? Who was stopping him?

Bro what i belive is that our GOP knew about this secret for long enough but acting like its just ok. Posible reasons are here. We have learned for arabs what i belive or i hope so!!! lol. That showing we have all these reserves is a kiss to death. ( meaning inviting all the big giants) We might be trying to stabilized and be powerfull enough to stand and protect ourself from all the looters of the world. Plus try to get rid of corrupt people aswell so we are strong and safegard ourself. Plus we have learned alot from china. One thing that chinies are good at keep it low. Look how good and strong they are getting so we might be working on this the same way. Possible right !!? Second point is all this BLA and USA not declaring BLA a terroriest group and giving them safe heaven might be the same reason that they might have eyes on it now( i strongly belive on this ) What we need to do is to work with USA and get as much strong as we can and be able to defend ourself. The answer to why Mush or anyother haven't done anything about is we might not want to declare it even though now they know about all this. by the way very good artical and it tells us why are we having all these problems in Pakistan

 

[MOSABJA]

1)One thing I would say is that first of all balochistan's Inland area might be rich but the OFFSHORE is FULL WITH OIL.Pakistans coast is only few Kms away from Dubai which has more than 100 billion barrels oil reserves.

2)The place where Indian,Eurassian and Arabian plate collide is also in North of arabian sea.So north of arabian sea the Baloch coast is RICHEST.

3)TETHYAN Magnetic arc that runs throughout whole of the Pakistan is one of the most gold rich arc.It goes from balochistan to NWFP to kashmir.By only searching less then 5 % Balochistan we have 5 largest gold and copper reserves.
What would happen if we search whole of Baloch and FATA and NWFP and Kashmir????????????????????????

4)By Satellite imagery.It is confirmed that Balochistan is quite rich ,Besides it their are pockets in NWFP and FATA.Kashmir.




I too think the same way.We cant trust US .Its our OPEN enemy.Look at their maps.Their intentions about balochistan are very clear.The mess of BLA too is created by them selves.

What we need to do in this regard is.

1)Make ourselves economically independent by starting mega projects like Reko diq,Gwadar .

2)Make our deterrent strong.Pakistan cannot defend itself against US.The only possible way I see is to develop a CREDIBLE nuclear deterrent by Nuk subs,CMs able to strike Israel and other US allies .

3)Do this thing QUICKLY.

4)Seek Chinese Help immediately .They too have a lots of interests in balochistan.Its their trade route.Their future source of energy.

5)Bring in lots of money in Balochistan and give Baloch people 90 % literacy,90% Pakka houses,Industry,Electricity,gas,schools,hospital and every thing.

6)At one point we might have to support Taliban to defend Balochistan.

 

[niaz]

Let us get the facts straight.

Pakistan’s current proven reserves of oil are in the 300 to 400-million barrel range. Total world reserves are about 1-trillion barrels, quarter of these are in the Saudi Arabia. To even think that we have 6 times the world total oil reserves is living in cuckoo land; and to think that educated and rational members of this column start believing this flight of fancy makes me wonder about the sanity of my countrymen.

First oil discovery in the area now Pakistan was in 1915 at Khor. That is why the company was called Attock Oil Company. We have been exploring oil in this region for more than 80 years and even if we had a fraction of 6-trillion barrels, some of it would surely have been found by now. Even Angolans and Sudanese have found oil. Most optimistic estimate of Pakistan’s potential are 50-billion barrels. Even if we find 20-billin barrels, we would be lucky.

Most of the discoveries in Baluchistan have been gas fields. Our current gas reserves are about 32-TCF and with luck we might triple this figure. Even 100-TCF is puny compared to 975-TCF in Qatar and Iran.

Most of Pakistani coal is brown coal or lignite. This type has only 25% carbon content and is good for power generation only. For comparison; anthracite has approx 95% carbon content and the bituminous coal has 50 to 80% carbon content.

I am as much a patriot as any Pakistani, but patriotism does not mean we should let go of the reason and start believing in fairy tales.

 

[fatman17]

Let us get the facts straight.

Pakistan’s current proven reserves of oil are in the 300 to 400-million barrel range. Total world reserves are about 1-trillion barrels, quarter of these are in the Saudi Arabia. To even think that we have 6 times the world total oil reserves is living in cuckoo land; and to think that educated and rational members of this column start believing this flight of fancy makes me wonder about the sanity of my countrymen.

First oil discovery in the area now Pakistan was in 1915 at Khor. That is why the company was called Attock Oil Company. We have been exploring oil in this region for more than 80 years and even if we had a fraction of 6-trillion barrels, some of it would surely have been found by now. Even Angolans and Sudanese have found oil. Most optimistic estimate of Pakistan’s potential are 50-billion barrels. Even if we find 20-billin barrels, we would be lucky.

Most of the discoveries in Baluchistan have been gas fields. Our current gas reserves are about 32-TCF and with luck we might triple this figure. Even 100-TCF is puny compared to 975-TCF in Qatar and Iran.

Most of Pakistani coal is brown coal or lignite. This type has only 25% carbon content and is good for power generation only. For comparison; anthracite has approx 95% carbon content and the bituminous coal has 50 to 80% carbon content.

I am as much a patriot as any Pakistani, but patriotism does not mean we should let go of the reason and start believing in fairy tales.

this should end this silliness!

 

[moha199]

Let us get the facts straight.

Pakistan’s current proven reserves of oil are in the 300 to 400-million barrel range. Total world reserves are about 1-trillion barrels, quarter of these are in the Saudi Arabia. To even think that we have 6 times the world total oil reserves is living in cuckoo land; and to think that educated and rational members of this column start believing this flight of fancy makes me wonder about the sanity of my countrymen.

First oil discovery in the area now Pakistan was in 1915 at Khor. That is why the company was called Attock Oil Company. We have been exploring oil in this region for more than 80 years and even if we had a fraction of 6-trillion barrels, some of it would surely have been found by now. Even Angolans and Sudanese have found oil. Most optimistic estimate of Pakistan’s potential are 50-billion barrels. Even if we find 20-billin barrels, we would be lucky.

Most of the discoveries in Baluchistan have been gas fields. Our current gas reserves are about 32-TCF and with luck we might triple this figure. Even 100-TCF is puny compared to 975-TCF in Qatar and Iran.

Most of Pakistani coal is brown coal or lignite. This type has only 25% carbon content and is good for power generation only. For comparison; anthracite has approx 95% carbon content and the bituminous coal has 50 to 80% carbon content.

I am as much a patriot as any Pakistani, but patriotism does not mean we should let go of the reason and start believing in fairy tales.

Dude you just hamerd over my head i am up now lmao but My question stay the same that if we have any big reserve that can fulfill our needs and we can export it we should focus on our self get strong and then declare what we have. This world is bad.

 

[BATMAN]

Hon. Mr. Niaz,
This debate reminds me of my one rare experience in Pakistan’s mineral exploration field.
Once long ago (around 1998) I got engaged with PPL for business reasons and went to their office in Rawalpindi than from their on I traveled with their vehicle to some place (I don’t remember exactly) towards Fateh Jhang and in to the gas fields.
While approaching to the final destination, I saw many signs announcing various gasfields directions. During my few hours stay, I witnessed a staff man coming into the office and cheerfully started congratulating his colleagues, mentioning that gas has been discovered in two more wells.
Naturally, I was confused what is going on in Pakistan’s oil/gas exploration? I asked to the people around, what next and they told me those wells would be closed after discovery like others.
I assumed those well’s were closed due to no further capital available to bring it out of ground!
If you ever had a chance to travel in Pakistan’s gas fields, than you will endorse what I said about number of gas wells.

Can you please, tell us why we close those wells after discovery? I want to know if my theory is correct or not?

@ MOSABJA,
FYI, Rekodiq is not in Gawadar. It is in Chagi district and the project was suppose to be started in second quarter of 2007 but investing company has halted its proceedings due to the unrest and mind it all the bomb blasts are mainly aimed to deter this sort of development and our political parties are helping the miscreant elements with their non-productive behavior.

To be honest what Pakistan needs is able leadership and not some lame democracy.
Pakistan was very well off without Zardari and N.Sharif.
If I explore the development history of Pakistan, I find that all key developments were done during military governments.
We are discussing this today because of past govt. other wise for 60 years no one knew about Reko diq and neither did Sandak went off.
All this oil figures about oil reserves be right or wrong, but come to surface under the leadership of Musharraf.
Musharrf did his best to organize consensus on dams but after refusal from nationalist’s parties he embarked on alternative resources and carried on with undisputed dams. He organized record feasibility reports for various dams. There are rumors that he also continued with Kalabagh dam without official announcement.

Can we find such an ambitious and skilful leader again?
We cannot even name one!

For those who are not totally happy with Musharraf, I always give them the example of Egypt, where a dictator is ruling for more than 20 years but they were top of the list in receiving FDI. There people enjoy good life. They have infrastructure and industries. Today, there young generations have ample opportunities to learn, work and earn.
Saudi-Arabia and many other middle-eastern countries are more examples of dictatorship where people may not have the right to violent demonstration but they have stability which brought them prosperity.
Look at countries like Angola and in surroundings they have diamond mines but due to political instability people have no food to eat.

If oil be discovered we have no infrastructure to refine it and neither did we have the required maturity to decide our priorities correctly.

BTW, no one have the magic wand to do things quickly, and keep it clear India is your only enemy not US. Where as US is like a big engine who ever got hooked have the chance to overrun even superpowers like Russia.

 

[Bushroda]

Let us get the facts straight.

Pakistan’s current proven reserves of oil are in the 300 to 400-million barrel range. Total world reserves are about 1-trillion barrels, quarter of these are in the Saudi Arabia. To even think that we have 6 times the world total oil reserves is living in cuckoo land; and to think that educated and rational members of this column start believing this flight of fancy makes me wonder about the sanity of my countrymen.

First oil discovery in the area now Pakistan was in 1915 at Khor. That is why the company was called Attock Oil Company. We have been exploring oil in this region for more than 80 years and even if we had a fraction of 6-trillion barrels, some of it would surely have been found by now. Even Angolans and Sudanese have found oil. Most optimistic estimate of Pakistan’s potential are 50-billion barrels. Even if we find 20-billin barrels, we would be lucky.

Most of the discoveries in Baluchistan have been gas fields. Our current gas reserves are about 32-TCF and with luck we might triple this figure. Even 100-TCF is puny compared to 975-TCF in Qatar and Iran.

Most of Pakistani coal is brown coal or lignite. This type has only 25% carbon content and is good for power generation only. For comparison; anthracite has approx 95% carbon content and the bituminous coal has 50 to 80% carbon content.

I am as much a patriot as any Pakistani, but patriotism does not mean we should let go of the reason and start believing in fairy tales.

Sir, I am absolutely not surprised as how a man of wisdom & experience can rise above the nationalism & stick to reasoning. You've done so in all your previous posts and there is beyond doubt that you would continue doing so. But, I do believe that there is a very fair chance for major oil fields to be present in Baluchistan. Although 6 trillion barrels is an extremely fat figure to believe but still, i don't consider myself more intelligent than metallurgists in Geological survey of pakistan. So, I'll leave aside this point.

The major oil fields that have been discovered around the world so far have been the shallow fields from where the oil extraction is commercially feasible. The reason being that there was no technology to discover oil & gas at extreme depth. Until 1990s, it was impossible to explore anything beyond the depth of 8000 ft. Now, with the new hydraulic drills it is possible to drill as deep as 35000 ft. Last year in September, Chevron energy made the most significant oil discovery in nearly 3 decades 5 miles below the ocean bed in the gulf of Mexico. It is considered to have around 15 billion barrels of oil but it is said to be just one of the small pockets amongst many in that region. So by thumb rule, it is very much likely that there could be significant oil present in Baluchistan. Important is to learn is if it is commercially viable to extract it.

 

[Quwa]

At the very least there should be some public investment in clean brown-coal technology...like drying technology and synthetic fuels. If we can use coal-based fuels - especially in personal consumer, large-industrial zones and even commercial aircraft - then it is best that the government has total control over resources. Unless GOP starts pouring money into such technology, a few years down the line someone abroad will...and we'll get squat. Similarly we should focus our gas for LNG & CNG...and try to find ways to amplify oil for less emissions and more yield. Just imagine the national revenue Pakistan can produce...and ideally how it can utilize that money towards serving the needs of the people & arming its military.

There are efforts in New Zealand to use lignite for hydrogen production...
http://www.crl.co.nz/publications/Hydrogen%20research/Role of lignites, March 05.pdf

 

[niaz]

Firstly about discoveries; with the use of modern technology and satellite photographs, according to most expert opinions nearly all of large reservoirs (5-bilion barrels or more) have already been discovered and the remaining large discoveries will be in the 1-billion to 3 – billion barrels deposits. This includes even off shore oil wells. Middle East discoveries are in the shallow fields, that is Cretaceous zone. Pakistani discoveries in the Attock area much deeper; normal exploration depth is 16,000 ft and can sometimes be even deeper and down to Jurassic rocks.

Most of the new oil/gas wells are capped until the time facilities and infra structures for exploiting these can be developed. North Sea oil was first discovered in 1960 but first commercial production started 11 years later in 1971. Another reason can be that the reservoir is very small and not in commercial quantity. This limit changes over time. For example Stanvac (discoverers of Mari gas field) found a few small gas field but these were capped because in 1960’s, price of oil made these uneconomic. These blocks were released and later purchased by other companies when oil prices went up. A few of the north Sind gas fields are among these. While I have no way of knowing why the gas wells mentioned in one the post were capped, but there are always genuine reasons and not out of spite towards the country.

There is no doubt that oil and gas exploration in Pakistan has not received as much investment as we would like. One of the reasons is lukewarm interest by the oil companies in Pakistan. Once at the occasion of IP dinner in London, Chairman of Lasmo Company was on my table. They had about 1-TCF gas reserves in the northern Sind. His opinion was that international oil companies consider Pakistan as a gas producing country and a maximum potential of 100-TCF reserves. (As a very rough indication, one can assume 10-TCF as equivalent to 1-billion barrels of oil). Gas is not easily exportable and therefore they are not jumping over each other to grab exploration blocks in Pakistan. IMO probability of finding large gas fields in Pakistan is definitely there. About large oil deposits I am not so sure.

We have to remember that finding large deposits of oil and exporting the same is no panacea. I have had the opportunity of visiting Nigeria many times. Before Oil, Nigeria was an agricultural country and average Nigerian was probably better off. After oil, there was the civil war, oil producing region Biafra wanted to secede. (With the polarization in Pakistan, the possibility that Sind or Baluchistan would like to separate if they found huge oil deposits in their Province remains) After the civil war, people left their fields and gravitated towards Lagos making it one of the biggest slums in the world. Nigeria takes the cake when it comes to corruption. How do you think Pakistanis will react??

I sincerely hope that enough deposits are discovered in Pakistan to us self sufficient in energy but no more.