$31bn exports, $32bn remittances and Rs6trn revenue likely in full 2021-22: Govt expects 5pc growth in 2HFY22

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

I understand but we started with this low base a good 7 decades ago. I am not venting on anyone here specifically, I am just aghast at the continuing state of affairs. Once IK goes, the policies will be revamped by the next set of leaders to set the country on a new course and set the people back further.

The simple issue in my mind is the education and enablement of the human factor. It is the cheapest and lowest hanging fruit yet successive governments in Pakistan have collectively failed at delivering on this.

I am also hoping against hope that this single curriculum endeavor will help but I am not too sure. In the short to medium run it will peg our people back even further back in terms of competitiveness.

I agree but after 40 years of Pakistan's destruction by the zardaris/bhuttos and sharifs, we are unfortunately lucky to even be where we are at right now...........

Also, I agree that education, altruism and the quest for excellence can save Pakistan. That can come ONLY come from nationalism and patriotism.

 

[blain2]

Too much pessimism. Netherlands does a lot of re-export of goods made other European countries through its ports. Turkey had decades head start over Pakistan in development. Looking at raw population numbers masks the true demographic picture. Much of Pakistan's population is very young so can't add much to output.....this is also the key opportunity looking forward. Millions of workers will be approaching peak economic output over the next few decades. PTI is laying the groundwork for a bigger boom to come.

I am not known for my pessimism here. We cannot say Turkey has a head start over us. We are a nation that is nearing 8 decades of being independent. For god-sake, we are being compared to our former compatriots who have had even less time than us to get going yet they have.

Pakistan's population is young which is why I am raising the point about educating/training the human factor to be more effective in the future. The opportunity that you talk of is not being exploited. PTI's policy will probably not see the light of the day when the next setup comes in. This has been the the situation for decades in Pakistan now.

Peak economic output is a misleading term. What if the economy grows by $10B at the peak? Is that enough? What is it relative to? I can make the same point, as an example, about India. They are a massively underperforming economy. They are a large but underperforming economy because the 1.2B population compared to China's massively underperforms. The Indian economy pales in comparison to the size, amount of exports and economic output of the Chinese economy.

I guess the key point I am trying to get across is that the quality of our Human Resource has to be improved for it to become competitive. We should double-down in the services and knowledge-based industries but both of these require good education.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

I am not known for my pessimism here. We cannot say Turkey has a head start over us. We are a nation that is nearing 8 decades of being independent. For god-sake, we are being compared to our former compatriots who have had even less time than us to get going yet they have.

Pakistan's population is young which is why I am raising the point about educating/training the human factor to be more effective in the future. The opportunity that you talk of is not being exploited. PTI's policy will probably not see the light of the day when the next setup comes in. This has been the the situation for decades in Pakistan now.

Peak economic output is a misleading term. What if the economy grows by $10B at the peak? Is that enough? What is it relative to? I can make the same point, as an example, about India. They are a massively underperforming economy. They are a large but underperforming economy because the 1.2B population compared to China's massively underperforms. The Indian economy pales in comparison in size, amount of exports and economic output.

I guess the key point I am trying to get across is that the quality of our Human Resource has to be improved for it to become competitive. We should double-down in the services and knowledge-based industries but both of these require good education.

india's population is actually over 1.4 billion:

India Population (2024) - Worldometer

Population of India: current, historical, and projected population, growth rate, immigration, median age, total fertility rate (TFR), population density, urbanization, urban population, country's share of world population, and global rank. Data tables, maps, charts, and live population clock

www.worldometers.info

 

[niaz]

I don't see the point in quoting absolute numbers for exports and foreign exchange remittance. These figures are meaningless unless used in comparison with imports, because regardless of when the numbers are high or low; what really matters is the Current Account deficit. The question to be asked is "

" Do the exports and the remittances exceed or at at least are sufficient to meet import plus debt repayment FE requirement?" Unless we can balance of budget and incoming dollars cover the country's need for the dollar outflow; Pakistan would continue to be dictated at the mercy of foreign agencies like the IMF and rupee value would remain on the downward path. Hence the above numbers are a tool to fool the public that things are getting better.

 

[Maula Jatt]

I don't see the point in quoting absolute numbers for exports and foreign exchange remittance. These figures are meaningless unless used in comparison with imports, because regardless of when the numbers are high or low; what really matters is the Current Account deficit. The question to be asked is "

" Do the exports and the remittances exceed or at at least are sufficient to meet import plus debt repayment FE requirement?" Unless we can balance of budget and incoming dollars cover the country's need for the dollar outflow; Pakistan would continue to be dictated at the mercy of foreign agencies like the IMF and rupee value would remain on the downward path. Hence the above numbers are a tool to fool the public that things are getting better.

Trade deficit doubles in July-Dec as imports soar

Exports jump 25pc year-on-year during the half-yearly period.

www.dawn.com

 

[K_Bin_W]

india's population is actually over 1.4 billion:

India Population (2024) - Worldometer

Population of India: current, historical, and projected population, growth rate, immigration, median age, total fertility rate (TFR), population density, urbanization, urban population, country's share of world population, and global rank. Data tables, maps, charts, and live population clock

www.worldometers.info

Dang!!!! It's a disaster something Pak must avoid at all cost..

 

[Flight of falcon]

Trade deficit doubles in July-Dec as imports soar

Exports jump 25pc year-on-year during the half-yearly period.

www.dawn.com

Stupid Patwaris and Patwari media. There are so many ways to tell this news but yet they always focus on the negativity. Imagine how Indians will present this news:


Record exports highest ever in the first six months in history.
Upward trajectory of our industrial production.
imports drop by 12.5% in December.
Pakistan exports of almost $4B (merchandise and services) coming close to beating Bangladesh total of $4.75.


However stupid low IQ Patwaris focus on the negative aspect only.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

$31bn exports, $32bn remittances and Rs6trn revenue likely in full 2021-22: Govt expects 5pc growth in 2HFY22

• 'Year 2021 - Resilient now ever!', the Finance Division said while issuing performance report of year 2021

Press Release Updated 01 Jan 2022
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ISLAMABAD: The Finance Division said it is expecting the growth to stay at five percent, exports $31 billion as well as remittances $32 billion and tax collection of Rs6 trillion besides reduction in trade deficit to reduce in second half of fiscal year 2022.
While issuing performance report of year 2021 on Friday, the Finance Division said that “Year 2021 - Resilient now ever!”
Sustainability: Pakistan boom-bust lifecycle appears cyclical than sustainable in past. This is reflected from past global commodity, political or economic shocks of 1998, 2009, & 2018, where economy got busted in very short interval of time
Unlike past, PTI government has managed to bring the sustainability to macroeconomics. Despite the most devastating health and Economic Shocks of century, ie, Covid-19 and recent multi decade high-price commodity shock, Pakistan economy has displayed the greatest resilience, which is unprecedented in the 74-year history of Pakistan.
Pakistan’s macroeconomic performance was widely accepted by all international macro-economic Financial Institutions (Including IMF, World Bank, ADB, Moody’s, S&P and Fitch etc.)
The government’s response to the pandemic has been widely acclaimed and recognised. According to The Economist, Pakistan has been ranked number 1 in the ‘Economists’ world normalcy index as the country has lifted most of its Covid-19 restrictions imposed to curb the virus spread.
Energy items: there’s no reduction in trade deficit intensity
The Economist normalcy index offers some evidence about how people are responding to restrictions in real-time. Pakistan is followed by Nigeria, Britain & Germany on the list which was updated on November 5, 2021
Pakistan has rolled out the largest social safety net in Pakistan’s history. According to World Bank report “global social protection responses to Covid-19” (May-2021) Pakistan ranks 4th globally in terms of the number of people covered and 3rd globally in terms of the percentage of population covered amongst those that covered over 100 million people; the World Bank has stated that only few countries have attained impressive six-digit levels in this regard. Pakistan’s Ehsaas Emergency Cash is one of them.
Response to Covid: It is important to note that, Pakistan’s response to COVID is most effective and timely than rest of the world, despite the fiscal constraints. The Vision of Prime Minister Imran Khan of implementing the smart lockdown is the most appropriate, which allowed the economy to grow. Followings initiatives provided by PTI government & SBP for the relief of the masses.
A fiscal relief package of Rs1,240bn to provide relief to neutralize the socioeconomic impact of Covid-19.
Overall Rs2,073bn relief package by SBP
Introduced Running Finance Facility for Hospitals and new Industrial Investments (TERF)
Introduced Rozgar Scheme to prevent layoffs by financing wages and salaries of employees
Provided relief for loan restructuring to borrowers
SBP reduced the policy rate by 625bps
Electricity bill concessions Rupees 46 billion and to SMEs Rupees 50.6 billion
Reduction in winter tariffs @11.97/kWh & @12.96/kWh in 2020 & 2021
Relief to 8mn families under Ehsaas program from 3.7mn before PTI government
Total release of Rs232 funds under Ehsaas program in 2021 from Rupees 102 billion in 2014
106bn under Mera Pakistan Mera Ghar, low-cost housing scheme loans have been approved by banks
Growth: Importantly, economy performed above expectations; GDP growth 4%, tax collection exceeded above targets, reserves improved, current account reported lowest since 2011
Target surpassed: Nov tax collection reaches Rs476bn mark
The key to note that this growth was achieved when rest of the world was encountering massive output contraction. India (-8%), UK (-10%), USA (-3.7%), Iran (-6.5%)
While Pakistan growth was broad-based. Against 2.1% target the growth came in at 3.94%.
Agriculture at 2.77%, Industry 3.57%, and Services at 4.43%
It is pertinent to note that record bumper crops witnessed in 2021 and the trend likely to continue next year as well
Rice came in at 8.4 million tons (last year 7.4mn tons), Maize 8.5 million tons (last year 7.9 million tons), wheat 27.5 million tons (last year 25.2 million tons), cotton 7.1 million bales (last year 9.1 million bales)
In 2022, sugarcane is expected at 87.7 million tons, wheat 28.9 million tons, and Rice 8.8 million tons.
Corporate Sector:
Interest rates remained lower for most of the year at 7%, which gave impetus to private sector
Aggregate profit after tax of KSE-100 in 3Q of 2021 is reported at Rupee 258 billion. The Highest in the last 10 years
The growth is broad based, corporate sector has posted the record profitability of Rupees 929 billion in FY21, up from Rupee 587 billion in 2018
Overall, 247% growth in companies’ incorporation (69,380 companies during July-2018 to Dec-21 reported, compared to 19,996 companies in the last three years of PMLN government)
44% of total 157,000 companies registered in Pakistan incorporated in the PTI’s 3 years
Sector wise, Real Estate (494%), IT Sector (194%), & Tourism (136%) growth witnessed from 2018-21
Record number of 19 IPO’s worth Rupee 85 billion executed in the last three year
External Sector: Remittances and exports are above than pre-Covid level of 2019-20. This in turn, current account deficit posted 10 years low of US$1.9bn in FY21
Exports of Goods came in at $25.6bn, up 14% higher in FY21.
First time in the last ten years, exports indicators are looking promising and the average monthly exports now targeting US$3bn from US$2bn as in PMLN time
Jul-Nov remittances post 10pc growth YoY
Exports of services are another area where significant improvements have been witnessed. Services exports in FY21 also increased by 10% to US$5.9bn
IT sector exports have doubled from PML-N time and expected to reach US$3.5bn to US$4bn, up 300% by the end of this government’s term
While remittances have piled up to record level to US$29.4bn, from US$23.1bn year earlier
The other hallmark of PTI government in its three years was the contraction of unnecessary imports and imports substitution. However, recent commodity price shock has jacked up the imports
As per our analysis, the 80-85% of import surge is due to price affect and 15-20% is quantitative in line with economic growth
Recent policy actions are already fetching results and import growth is expected to slow down. Moreover, given the better-than-expected agriculture crop outlook, the food import will be curtailed.
Fiscal: Federal taxes registered a record growth in FY21 and came almost Rupee one trillion more than 2018 level at Rupee 4,764 billion
Similarly, the growth in non-tax revenue has witnessed a massive increase to Rs1,630 billion
Overall, the deficit situation has improved to 7.1% of GDP from 8.1% in FY20
The primary balance is also contained to 1.4% from 1.8% of GDP year earlier
This year tax situation is even better than last year and Pakistan is likely to post Rs6 trillion tax target and more than Rupee 1,200 billion in a single year
So far due to excellent tax collection the primary balance has reported a surplus of Rupee 206 billion in the first four month of current fiscal year
Inflation: Following Budget FY22, global commodity prices surged to unprecedented levels, triggering pressure on currencies and pushing higher inflation around the world
•As per FAO world food prices climbed 27%, 10-year peak
•CRB Index climbed 37.67% year-over-year
•Bloomberg Commodity index increased 28.4% in a year
•USA CPI climbed by 6.8% in November, the fastest pace since 1982
•German Inflation at 5.2% in November, highest rate since June 1992
•UK 10-Year high inflation witnessed at 5.1%
•China factory inflation is at 26 years high at 12.9%
•India WPI hits record high at 14.23%
•CPI in Pakistan cloaked in at 11.5% in November 2021, while it is interesting to note that recently the price of food is witnessing a significant decline, onions down 25% YoY, Pulse Moong 25%, Tomatoes 17%, Eggs 10%, Chicken 10% and Potatoes 8% while the prices of wheat flour, rice and sugar depicted a stability
Ehsaas Program: Under Ehsaas Emergency Cash Program, the government has disbursed Rs 179.3 billion to 14.8 million beneficiaries to provide immediate cash relief of Rs 12,000 whose livelihood has been severely affected by the pandemic
Other progress: The government has cleared the outstanding power sector dues in tune of more than Rupee 220bn and refunds of more than Rupee 250 billion
Power supply remained uninterrupted, resultantly exports and industrial output growth remained in double digit
After very long-time rural economy has strengthened with record growth in crop yields and prices
The country is also witnessing the construction boom led by construction package announced by Prime Minister
More than Rupee 1,000 billion worth projects were approved in one year
Construction of Dams initiated which will double the water storage from current 13 million acre feet and addition of 10,000 mega watts of electricity
The country has scored overall well on health front, more than 150mn vaccines have been administered. Close to US$2bn spent on vaccines without provincial contribution
Highest number of social and economic programs launched e.g Kamyab Pakistan, Sehat card, Ehsaas Rashan, KamyabJawan, Mera Pakistan Mera Ghar, Kissan card, etc
Introduction of winter relief tariffs to industries, commercial and households
Introduced the Textile, Auto, and SME Policies
Focus on non-conventional products and market exports for diversification especially on IT sector related incentives
Implemented the toughest FATF action plan in limited period
Better administrative controls and productivity growth brought prices of essential food items down e.g. Wheat flour, Sugar, onion, potatoes, tomatoes, and pulses
Outlook: Going forward, we expect the growth to stay at 5%, exports $31bn, remittances $32bn, taxes Rupee 6,000bn, trade deficit to reduce in 2HFY22
Recent pressures on Current account are due to commodity shock but risks are receding due to timely policy actions.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2022

$31bn exports, $32bn remittances and Rs6trn revenue likely in full 2021-22: Govt expects 5pc growth in 2HFY22

* 'Year 2021 - Resilient now ever!', the Finance Division said while issuing performance report of year 2021

www.brecorder.com

Last year, total Pakistani exports were $31.3 billion and this fiscal year they're expected to remain around the same.

Why is this stall in exports being propagandised as a positive news?

 

[niaz]

Stupid Patwaris and Patwari media. There are so many ways to tell this news but yet they always focus on the negativity. Imagine how Indians will present this news:


Record exports highest ever in the first six months in history.
Upward trajectory of our industrial production.
imports drop by 12.5% in December.
Pakistan exports of almost $4B (merchandise and services) coming close to beating Bangladesh total of $4.75.


However stupid low IQ Patwaris focus on the negative aspect only.

With due respect Sir, what is benefit of record exports if the trade deficit is still at the highest level. The imports drop that you mention also resulted in low LNG imports, causing extreme hardship to the housewives because of the scarcity of gas for cooking!

By just saying that the country is doing great does not change the ground reality. What good is the increase in exports to the Joe public when price of every thing keeps going up. Shouldn’t we represent the thing as they really are, but you call this a ‘Patwari’ media that always stresses on the negative.

I admit having a low IQ, but I fail to see the need to fudge the facts.

 

[Flight of falcon]

Last year, total Pakistani exports were $31.3 billion and this fiscal year they're expected to remain around the same.

Why is this stall in exports being propagandised as a positive news?

I cannot expect any better from you.
mouth exports were $30 B and they are expected at $39B this year.

At least bother to read …..

 

[Flight of falcon]

With due respect Sir, what is benefit of record exports if the trade deficit is still at the highest level. The imports drop that you mention also resulted in low LNG imports, causing extreme hardship to the housewives because of the scarcity of gas for cooking!

By just saying that the country is doing great does not change the ground reality. What good is the increase in exports to the Joe public when price of every thing keeps going up. Shouldn’t we represent the thing as they really are, but you call this a ‘Patwari’ media that always stresses on the negative.

I admit having a low IQ, but I fail to see the need to fudge the facts.

Niaz sahab I respect your point of view and totally agree what’s the point of these “positive “ news if the ordinary person cannot benefit from this positive trend.

but this course-correction was badly needed. Removal Of subsidies and market exchange rate are essential before we can even dream of having a vibrant economy. Artificially and politically setting up prices and exchange rates only act to eat economy like a termite by making it less competitive.

Nawaj and Bhutto clan crimes are no worse than the nationalization of industry under Bhutto. They all worked to destroy Pakistan. I remember 500 MQM loosers got jobs at the Karachi airport and all they did was to extort money from pessangers.

These were political steps taken to get vote.

Someone has to stand up and decide that we are going to stop this slide and put economy back on free and fair economic policies. This takes a lot of guts as the results are in front of us. People are suffering under inflation. But this was coming for a long time. Only PTI is implementing this change and policies which are long over due.

the only silver lining is that imports will reach their peak as the oil price will hover around 80-85 reach but our exports if continued at this pace will outpace imports and exceed imports after few years.

Please remember we had great crops production which will also trim raw material/cotton bill and pandemic related expenses will
Eventually end too ( over a billion dollars worth of vaccine every year ) .

One thing which we must pay attention to or we are doomed is our energy requirements. We need to find alternative sources such as central Asian pipeline or from Iran to survive.
All this hard work will go to waste if we cannot have a reliable Energy sources.

electricity contracts signed by corrupt Nawaj need to be renegotiated through the Chinese government intervention; PPp and PML have left Pakistan at the
Mercy of electricity purchase contracts which will Simply bankrupt us.

 

[blain2]

I don't see the point in quoting absolute numbers for exports and foreign exchange remittance. These figures are meaningless unless used in comparison with imports, because regardless of when the numbers are high or low; what really matters is the Current Account deficit. The question to be asked is "

" Do the exports and the remittances exceed or at at least are sufficient to meet import plus debt repayment FE requirement?" Unless we can balance of budget and incoming dollars cover the country's need for the dollar outflow; Pakistan would continue to be dictated at the mercy of foreign agencies like the IMF and rupee value would remain on the downward path. Hence the above numbers are a tool to fool the public that things are getting better.

I agree. They are cherry picking metrics to report on. The CAD remains problematic for Pakistan unless the net exports increase and that is the only option left thus the more we do with services the better as our industrial and agricultural exports will not increase significantly. Our imports cannot be stifled as most of these comprise POL and machinery which are needed for the country to run.

 

[Flight of falcon]

I agree. They are cherry picking metrics to report on. The CAD remains problematic for Pakistan unless the net exports increase and that is the only option left thus the more we do with services the better as our industrial and agricultural exports will not increase significantly. Our imports cannot be stifled as most of these comprise POL and machinery which are needed for the country to run.

The only way to get out of this quagmire is to increase our exports.....if it was upto me I would export everything I can find a market for especially minerals and value added finished products. In the absence of oil we will take forever to find substitute for this product .
Exports dont just bring money to us they create jobs which is the net most important thing for our economy.

 

[Falcon26]

It will take 2 or 3 more elections won by the PTI to fix the "direction" of travel in the mess that PPP and PML created let alone get anywhere close to Bangladesh right now - let alone Turkey.

Service industry will take a decade to fix - PTI has made the right moves by creating tech parks, increasing STEM university participation and moving to fix the BSc degree issue(though the PPP yaya's in Sindh are resisting ... ).

There is a general inefficiencies in South Asia that’s not unique to Pakistan, but Pakistan is a prime example of such lethargy. For example, total exports by India in 2021 were around $303-billion. Turkey had a total exports of $225-billon in the same year. India’s population is about 1.4-billion while Turkey’s population is 84-million.

Statistically, Indian and Pakistani exports are roughly in the same ballpark.

 

[XVIV]

I am not known for my pessimism here. We cannot say Turkey has a head start over us. We are a nation that is nearing 8 decades of being independent. For god-sake, we are being compared to our former compatriots who have had even less time than us to get going yet they have.

Pakistan's population is young which is why I am raising the point about educating/training the human factor to be more effective in the future. The opportunity that you talk of is not being exploited. PTI's policy will probably not see the light of the day when the next setup comes in. This has been the the situation for decades in Pakistan now.

Peak economic output is a misleading term. What if the economy grows by $10B at the peak? Is that enough? What is it relative to? I can make the same point, as an example, about India. They are a massively underperforming economy. They are a large but underperforming economy because the 1.2B population compared to China's massively underperforms. The Indian economy pales in comparison to the size, amount of exports and economic output of the Chinese economy.

I guess the key point I am trying to get across is that the quality of our Human Resource has to be improved for it to become competitive. We should double-down in the services and knowledge-based industries but both of these require good education.

Pakistan's misfortune lies in its inheritors after Jinnah's passing being the same feudal rent-seekers that propped up the Raj. Jinnah was unable to really establish a political class or tendency of his effectively beyond his own personal leadership after independence. The few bright minds that were in the ML were sidelined and pushed out by these pre-independence interests who muscled in on a nascent Pakistan and were happy to continue to run it on the back of a network of feudal fiefdoms. If you think of some of the towering figures of the ML prior to independence and the struggle for Pakistan, and the people that ran the state after its independence, there is a great mismatch in ability and intellectual prowess. Really, if you think of some of the remarkable people we had even after independence, a greater proportion than there should be were migrants from India (e.g. AQ Khan).

India, at least, after independence was able to deprioritize the feudal and raise a new class of industrialists (e.g. TATA) who by and large took over the role that the feudal played in its society. This was something that came into its own after the 1990s and led the Indian economy grow by a great number. Obviously, it still lags behind China as many of the same issues still remain and it wasn't able to completely get rid of them. The same probably is also true of Bangladesh.