Q- An Air Force knows right away, within minutes, when it loses an aircraft. Why India didn't accept any loss in the first hour of engagement (or until the pics of Abhinandan with our Army were all over media)?
A- Because Air Forces wait for the pilots to return to the base once they are ejected. Pilots have survival kits, maps and other necessary gadgets to survive a few days and find their way back home. When Pilots ejected (as seen in some videos with white parachutes), and within 5 minutes of the engagement, India knew that it has lost the planes, however, the Air Force didn't want to accept it because they were hoping the pilots to come back. Naturally, India didn't even accept even the loss of Abhinandan.
Q- If Pakistan really lost a jet, did they know about it?
A- As stated above, an Air Force immediately knows about any loss. So Pakistan Air Force would have known about the lost jet. There is no chance when the first press brief happened, DG ISPR didn't know about the lost air craft.
Q- Why DG ISPR initially disclosed 2 pilots, but later on denied the second one in Combines Military Hospital (CMH)?
A- Shifting an injured pilot to CMH takes time. It is usually the security forces who transfer the ejected injured pilots. In the case of the second pilot, it appears that he was not found by any of the member of public, because in current times when everyone has a mobile phone camera in his/ her pocket, it's extremely difficult to hide the capture of an enemy pilot. Instead, he was found by security forces who later transferred him to CMH. Any security force in the world identifies own/ enemy pilots right away, and informs the high command about it. In the case of second pilot as well, security forces knew that they had captured a Pakistani or an Indian pilot. By the time the press briefing started, there was no possibility of DG ISPR not knowing about the origin of the pilot found, so there is no point to challenge this statement. However, why he later retracted from his earlier statement, because he suspected that a member of public, either at the site of capture, or during the transfer, or from CMH, might upload the video/ pictures of this pilot. Later, when he realized that there is no video/ picture made available by anyone (except some statements from the public mentioning 3 white parachutes, and a random video of two parachutes ejected from the same plane), and India was hesitant in accepting the loss, he found it to be a perfect opportunity to take back his statement.
Q- Why India didn't accept later that it had lost multiple pilots, not just one?
A- When people saw two pilots ejected from one plane, they captured the scene in a video and started a commentary which is very very important. In one of the videos (taken by Pakistani Army guys apparently), an individual is heard saying that the second parachute was opened quite late, while the first one opened in the first few seconds. Both parachutes were of white color. One of the guys could be heard saying that the ejected pilots belong to Pakistan, while the other one corrects him saying that both parachutes' color was white and Pakistani pilots use green parachutes. This is very important information that tells that the video was taken by soldiers who know the color of the respective parachutes.
When a parachute is opened earlier, there is enough time to maneuver it to the desired place. The pilot who opened his parachute late was arguably due to any kind of injury, and got less time to maneuver the parachute to his desired spot. One of them might have reported back to his base as he landed on the Indian side of LoC due to time he got to control his glide.
So, one pilot, Abhinandan (a completely separate incident), was arrested immediately, two weren't. First tweet of DG ISPR points to this fact that Pakistan captured one, while two in the area. By the time press brief happened, one of the two ejected from the second jet (the injured one) was also captured and shifted to the hospital. India in a hope of getting all the pilots back, didn't accept any. Once they delivered their final statement that only ONE pilot was missing, ISPR found that a perfect opportunity to deny the second pilot, and India, on the other hand, couldn't tell the public that their first statement that they have lost only one pilot wasn't correct. Besides, it is in the benefit of Indian Air Force to keep denying and it is in Pakistan interest to also not disclose.
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There is a good chance that the pilot in Pakistan's custody was flying SU30 MKI. He is a wealth of knowledge due to being SU30 pilot.
There is also a possibility that he might have died in CMH and Pakistan couldn't disclose this loss as Pakistan doesn't want to give a single opportunity to India to cry foul.
Anyway, even if he is alive, there is a very little chance that he will see Indian land again in his life.
