2016: when China overtakes the US

[ephone]

2116??? Well, China does not need that long to overtake U.S.

if it's 2116, i may buy the story.
but i do believe that by 2016, China is strong enough to protect its core interests.

 

[xizhimen]

it's 2016,and I think it will happen definitely sooner than that.

 

[true_indian]

I actually think China could realistically beat US by 2020. But I'll not be surprised if it does before.

 

[Jon Snow]

economically - I would say 2030-2035 (GDP wise). Militarily - depends on whether the chinese actually want to or not - As in do they want to replace the US as the global watchdog or be strong enough just to protect their interests and have no inclination towards global domination

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Our nominal GDP will beat US by 2016, not just PPP.

 

[ao333]

Our nominal GDP will beat US by 2016, not just PPP.

Don't be Indian. Nominal Chinese GDP as of 2011 is still less than half of the US. You need to grow at 22% annum to beat the US in nominal terms by 2016. Goldman Sachs predicts 2027. and that's assuming current Chinese growth rates continue for 15 more years while the US stagnates.

 

[xdrive]

Various observers have noted this week that China's economy will be bigger than that of the United States in 2016

I keep seeing statements like this with various different years, 2020, 2016, 2015. But the math just doesn't add up.

If Chinas growth rate was at %12 a year (which it isn't) it would still take China atleast 10 years to even catch up to the U.S and that's if the U.S stopped growing (the economy is still growing)

Chinas economy will probably out grow the U.S but the time estimates being thrown around are pretty ridiculous.

 

[below_freezing]

I keep seeing statements like this with various different years, 2020, 2016, 2015. But the math just doesn't add up.

If Chinas growth rate was at %12 a year (which it isn't) it would still take China atleast 10 years to even catch up to the U.S and that's if the U.S stopped growing (the economy is still growing)

Chinas economy will probably out grow the U.S but the time estimates being thrown around are pretty ridiculous.

China's nominal growth in 2007 wasn't 13%, though that was the number reported; it was 33%. Likewise, last year's growth wasn't 9.2%, it was 17% last year. This is due to the appreciating RMB.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

I keep seeing statements like this with various different years, 2020, 2016, 2015. But the math just doesn't add up.

If Chinas growth rate was at %12 a year (which it isn't) it would still take China atleast 10 years to even catch up to the U.S and that's if the U.S stopped growing (the economy is still growing)

Chinas economy will probably out grow the U.S but the time estimates being thrown around are pretty ridiculous.

You're right, the estimates are pretty ridiculous.

But when it comes to GDP growth, it is the "nominal GDP growth" that counts (which includes inflation).

List of countries by nominal GDP growth rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The growth rate which is given in the media is usually the "real growth rate" which doesn't include inflation etc. and is thus significantly smaller than the nominal growth rate. To calculate the actual growth in GDP every year, it's the nominal rate that is used.

 

[below_freezing]

You're right, the estimates are pretty ridiculous.

But when it comes to GDP growth, it is the "nominal GDP growth" that counts (which includes inflation).

List of countries by nominal GDP growth rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The growth rate which is given in the media is usually the "real growth rate" which doesn't include inflation etc. and is thus significantly smaller than the nominal growth rate. To calculate the actual growth in GDP every year, it's the nominal rate that is used.

that's why the US grew. people who know the US economy realize that true inflation was 10%, but the Bureau of Statistics faked it. The numbers coming out of the US have no root in reality. 2 trillion dollars of GDP simply do not exist but are reported, while food and fuel inflation, reported in China and every other country, is not reported in the US as part of core inflation. They also utilize heuristics, a way of further overestimating US GDP and underestimating inflation.

Just search for "The Crash Course" by Dr. Chris Martenson, he will show you the truth.

 

[rama]

Indian counterparts

 

[sweetgrape]

I also think the time which the article refer to is too early. I except china will surpass USA in economy in 2018-2020. I also see the comment quote some orgnization as saying china will surpass USA after 2025, I don't think so.
If my memory is not wrong, 2001 china gdp is about 1 trillion, 2010 china gdp is about 6 trillion, in the period, china average development rate is about 9 percents. And the same time, USA gdp grow from 8 trillion to 15 trillion. just think it, think of 7percents growth rate, current appreciation, inflation. In 2020 china gdp will be about 30 trillion, Usa gdp will be about 30 trillion too. That's my opinion. But we should keep grow, Usa too, USA have advantage, we also have own.
I am not to boast of these, gdp not meant all, we know we are behind USA in many domains, like science, life livelihood, education, military, but step by step, you know. If you have a good economy, many thing base on it will develop faster. The important thing is that we know our situation.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I also think the time which the article refer to is too early. I except china will surpass USA in economy in 2018-2020. I also see the comment quote some orgnization as saying china will surpass USA after 2025, I don't think so.
If my memory is not wrong, 2001 china gdp is about 1 trillion, 2010 china gdp is about 6 trillion, in the period, china average development rate is about 9 percents. And the same time, USA gdp grow from 8 trillion to 15 trillion. just think it, think of 7percents growth rate, current appreciation, inflation. In 2020 china gdp will be about 30 trillion, Usa gdp will be about 30 trillion too. That's my opinion. But we should keep grow, Usa too, USA have advantage, we also have own.
I am not to boast of these, gdp not meant all, we know we are behind USA in many domains, like science, life livelihood, education, military, but step by step, you know. If you have a good economy, many thing base on it will develop faster. The important thing is that we know our situation.

The US GDP of 2000 was 9.87 trillion and the US GDP of 2010 was 14.58 trillion.

They haven't doubled their GDP within a decade.

 

[UKBengali]

LOL. Too many comments from people who have very little knowledge of economics here.

China is now around 50% of US GDP. It will not be unreasonable to think that the Chinese would grow at around 8% a year till 2020. Us may grow at 2% a year till 2020 but that relies on the following assumption - dollar remains the world's undisputed reserve currency.

The chances are that by 2020, the US dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency. This will have the effect of massively reducing US GDP as then the US will no longer be able to import anywhere near as much as it does now.

No less than the economist predicts that in actual international currency terms, Chinese GDP will be more than twice as large as the US by 2025.

The end of Western domination is almost here.

 

[stax]

LOL. Too many comments from people who have very little knowledge of economics here.

China is now around 50% of US GDP. It will not be unreasonable to think that the Chinese would grow at around 8% a year till 2020. Us may grow at 2% a year till 2020 but that relies on the following assumption - dollar remains the world's undisputed reserve currency.

The chances are that by 2020, the US dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency. This will have the effect of massively reducing US GDP as then the US will no longer be able to import anywhere near as much as it does now.

No less than the economist predicts that in actual international currency terms, Chinese GDP will be more than twice as large as the US by 2025.

The end of Western domination is almost here.

Currently the real GDP growth is almost 20% every year.
2009 China's GDP: 5180.9 billion dollars.
2010 China's GDP: 6048.3 billion dollars.
2011 China's GDP: 471564 billion RMB = 7485.0 billon dollars.
As this rate, we can suppose China's GDP from 2012 to 2015:
2012 China's GDP: 9000 billion dollars
2013 China's GDP: 11000 billion dollars
2014 China's GDP: 13200 billion dollars
2015 China's GDP: 16000 billion dollars
2016 China's GDP : 19200 billion dollars overtake US!