Puchtoon
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Going by history , i will have to say there is a chance of a third front being formed with outside support of congress. i also believe that the govt will fall in 2 yrs after formation , and another congress govt will be formed.
As to people who believe the namo will become PM , they are living in a fools paradise. let me elaborate.
The BJP cannot get a majority by them selfs. even at their hight of power in 99 they were not able to form the govt without allies. those allies have now deserted them . and will not rejoin as they realize their electorate do not wish them to be linked to the bjp. for 23 allies which formed the NDA in 99 there are only 4 today who stand with the bjp.
the BSP,SP ,NC(their vote bank is largely Muslim) TDPwill never come back to the nda as they suffered by their past association with them . the JDU flatly refuses the candidature of namo . Modi in general dose not have the capacity or diplomacy to attract allies. that is his biggest failure. not to mention within the bjp there are his detractors.
wish what ever you want but the fact of the matter is namo has too much baggage to be widely accepted as a candidature for PM.
I AGREE , but does the BJP has any other choices ??
Lets presume a arun Jaitley or swaraj as leader or maybe the rss favorite SS chauhan , How much can the bjp score when at present they have 110+ seats ?
My presumption if the wave is in favor of BJp 150+,Else 135-140.Now that means congress will also get the same or maybe a little above ,then there is NO CHANCE of a BJP GOVERNMENT .
NOW lets assume BJP takes the risk you mentioned above and appoints modi as its pm candidate . modi can fire up the cadre of bjp.
If he can score BIG in BIG states like in UP(50-60 Seats),RJ,MP,Gujrat(20+) etc he can be very near to 180+ which he need TO ATLEAST MAKE HIM CONSIDERABLE AS AN ALLY .
Secondly , if polarization happens( which i think will be the situation) 190+ can also be on the card.
Then he needs JAYA ,BIJU,JDU(can be sought out after bjp gets good seats),Ss,Akalis,Momta which is quite possible .