2013 China problems (My feelings living in China from 2011-2013)

[JSCh]

Inflation is quite reasonable in China. And that is a fact no method how much spin you put on the value of RMB. 不看广告看疗效.

 

[tranquilium]

Still. 2.4% on a 7 % annum interest is a token payment, even you should be able to see that. In term of the debt, it will only get bigger (I don't know what and which bond issue with what interest rate, but it would most likely be greater than the 2 %)

I highly doubt that 26 billion dollars per year is token payment, but we are not here to discuss that.

Money cycle is, you cannot make the money you and your country earn disappear.
Current Chinese Economic model is they uses RMB and pay off the local factories and make goods. With Goods export, those people are not going to pay RMB to buy your goods. THey will use its local currency. As RMB is still prohibit to sell over international market (As far as I know) So China is getting USD instead.
However, with exchange rate and interest deficit. You have to convert the USD China earn back into RMB. There are only one way you can do it, is by issuing more credit or print more money. Where Credit was given out by bank to transform into loan and being borrowed by Chinese, money will hit the market directly. However, you cannot print money any willy-lily you want, so most of those conversion cash are going to end up in credit. Which is not a big problem but when you consider when people can have easy credit to borrow (i.e. more people borrow from bank), it push up anything that require a loan, from mortgage to personal loan. Hence you have an inflation.

Let me stop you right here. This is only the export section of a nation. China, in addition of being the largest exporter in the world, is also the second largest importer.
Continue from your cycle, after the factories receive RMB. It divided into two parts, one part goes to pay workers and other personnel, the other parts goes to pay the operation cost of the plant, including supply, asset maintenance, etc. Part of the RMB will be spent on imports. These RMB will return to the bank and be converted into US dollar (the dollars that is earned in the export cycle) and transformed into goods that flow into China. The RMB is then ready to be exchanged when the factories come in with USD dollar. This is basic trade balance. China currently is sitting on a surplus, as a result, the foreign reserve increases. China is aggressively investing in Africa and purchasing foreign asset, etc, because the trade surplus need to be properly utilized.

However, not all of the Chinese are better off with these inflation, while there are people earning 12,000 a year who can pay off almost whatever they can, some people are earning 2,400 a month, those people are worse off. However, when you look back at those people who earn top dollar, pay a lot of tax, and the country now more developed. The land of everything will rise. Again, it's good to selected few, But not good on the others, the Majority of others. Up to a point the local factory cannot sustains the high rental price and higher salary payout. You need to increase the price for your product. Hence you lose completeness.

As for inflation, why does inflation happen? Well, a government does not simply hand out money. What they do is creating new base line cash reserves which allows the central bank to give out loans. This is known as the M0. From M0, additional monetary supplies are factored in. For example, adding in bank reserve amounts, M0 becomes M1. Adding in check deposits and other M1 substitutes, you get M2. Adding into stocks, bonds, etc, you get M3, so on and so forth. In a healthy economy, the government drive the economy forward with loans as incentive for economy to expand and grow. Generally speaking, between 1 to 5% of inflation is considered "healthy", or just the right amount of inflation. Deflation will generally hurt the economy and inflation above 15% are considered high inflation. Inflation above 100% will be hyper-inflation.
In your previous section, your assumption is that total amount of money will only increase in China because you are missing the import cycle. No to mention the fact that money issued to factories are, in fact, simply exchanges. The factory withdraw RMB after they deposit USD earned from trade. This has nothing to do with M0.
Now, in a expanding economy such as China, the total monetary supply will grow. Since RMB is gradually transitioning into a international currency, the total supply need to go up as well. As for, whether it is too much, I said it in my first post, all you have to do is take a look at annual CPI. The Chinese CPI in 2012 is 2.6% and CPI from other years within the past decade are also all within healthy range with the exception of 2007, which is about 6.58%. Hardly something to be concerned.

If you would bother reading the OP post, his word are spot on, you cannot expect every dollar Chinese Company earn goes into Chinese government for a centralised financial control. The moment they earn more, their employee will demand more, and the city they live in and work in will demand more. Money will not disappear out into nowhere. So, you are going to look at a certain rise of standard in China, but with rise of standard, you cannot keep it low on cost. As the cost always represent the standard.
That's why I said, if you can find a way to increase the standard in your country and your product without adjusting the cost, let me know, you deserve a Nobel Prize in economic

I have refuted OP's claim. Of course the production cost will increase as the living standard go up, but there is go up and there is going American and European up. I have said this in many labor force related posts: China is not about cheap labor, it is about cheap labor with high education. In 2008, 23% of world's engineering graduates comes from China, more than twice of the number of US graduates. The percentage has only gotten bigger in the more recent years. The direct result of this education disparity is that you can certainly get an average labor cheaper in Southeast Asia or India, but if the job requires undergraduate level education or can be done better by undergraduates, Chinese are willing to ask for a lot less.
This is on top of the fact that there are other factors of a nation that help reduce the production cost. For example, good infrastructure support and efficient regulatory bodies will drastically boost productivity, thus reducing cost. To sum it up, sure, the cost of production will go up in China, but it is still more the sufficient to out-compete Americans, Europeans or Indians.

 

[Snomannen]

They say you can't find another similar case as China's development in recent years in other countries.
The whole progress of developing in China is really odd, including its system and the consideration.

 

[Developereo]

Housing bubbles are everywhere.

Property Price Index

 

[jhungary]

I highly doubt that 26 billion dollars per year is token payment, but we are not here to discuss that.

Let me stop you right here. This is only the export section of a nation. China, in addition of being the largest exporter in the world, is also the second largest importer.

Continue from your cycle, after the factories receive RMB. It divided into two parts, one part goes to pay workers and other personnel, the other parts goes to pay the operation cost of the plant, including supply, asset maintenance, etc. Part of the RMB will be spent on imports. These RMB will return to the bank and be converted into US dollar (the dollars that is earned in the export cycle) and transformed into goods that flow into China. The RMB is then ready to be exchanged when the factories come in with USD dollar. This is basic trade balance. China currently is sitting on a surplus, as a result, the foreign reserve increases. China is aggressively investing in Africa and purchasing foreign asset, etc, because the trade surplus need to be properly utilized.

As for inflation, why does inflation happen? Well, a government does not simply hand out money. What they do is creating new base line cash reserves which allows the central bank to give out loans. This is known as the M0. From M0, additional monetary supplies are factored in. For example, adding in bank reserve amounts, M0 becomes M1. Adding in check deposits and other M1 substitutes, you get M2. Adding into stocks, bonds, etc, you get M3, so on and so forth. In a healthy economy, the government drive the economy forward with loans as incentive for economy to expand and grow. Generally speaking, between 1 to 5% of inflation is considered "healthy", or just the right amount of inflation. Deflation will generally hurt the economy and inflation above 15% are considered high inflation. Inflation above 100% will be hyper-inflation.
In your previous section, your assumption is that total amount of money will only increase in China because you are missing the import cycle. No to mention the fact that money issued to factories are, in fact, simply exchanges. The factory withdraw RMB after they deposit USD earned from trade. This has nothing to do with M0.
Now, in a expanding economy such as China, the total monetary supply will grow. Since RMB is gradually transitioning into a international currency, the total supply need to go up as well. As for, whether it is too much, I said it in my first post, all you have to do is take a look at annual CPI. The Chinese CPI in 2012 is 2.6% and CPI from other years within the past decade are also all within healthy range with the exception of 2007, which is about 6.58%. Hardly something to be concerned.


I have refuted OP's claim. Of course the production cost will increase as the living standard go up, but there is go up and there is going American and European up. I have said this in many labor force related posts: China is not about cheap labor, it is about cheap labor with high education. In 2008, 23% of world's engineering graduates comes from China, more than twice of the number of US graduates. The percentage has only gotten bigger in the more recent years. The direct result of this education disparity is that you can certainly get an average labor cheaper in Southeast Asia or India, but if the job requires undergraduate level education or can be done better by undergraduates, Chinese are willing to ask for a lot less.
This is on top of the fact that there are other factors of a nation that help reduce the production cost. For example, good infrastructure support and efficient regulatory bodies will drastically boost productivity, thus reducing cost. To sum it up, sure, the cost of production will go up in China, but it is still more the sufficient to out-compete Americans, Europeans or Indians.

You missed the whole point.

You are thinking China as a centralised account. Every account payable and receivable goes out form the same payable and receivable account. The problem is not. Let's look at your extended money cycle.

Let me stop you right here. This is only the export section of a nation. China, in addition of being the largest exporter in the world, is also the second largest importer.
Continue from your cycle, after the factories receive RMB. It divided into two parts, one part goes to pay workers and other personnel, the other parts goes to pay the operation cost of the plant, including supply, asset maintenance, etc. Part of the RMB will be spent on imports. These RMB will return to the bank and be converted into US dollar (the dollars that is earned in the export cycle) and transformed into goods that flow into China. The RMB is then ready to be exchanged when the factories come in with USD dollar. This is basic trade balance. China currently is sitting on a surplus, as a result, the foreign reserve increases. China is aggressively investing in Africa and purchasing foreign asset, etc, because the trade surplus need to be properly utilized.

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/china-...living-china-2011-2013-a-3.html#ixzz2SWEzqPvD

Yes, the import market, but you neglect to define who is supporting the "import" market. By the look you are saying, it's the corporate and the bank, but in fact, it have nothing to do with the bank and the corporate (Well, some do) but most of them who fork the expense on import in from the average joe like you and me.

From what I see, (well, it's 11 32 pm my time as I type this) you are saying that the money turn around from exporting directly back to importing. It in itself is false. The money did not turn around directly, but they circulate into the workers and management hand.

Think of this like this.

You own and operate a company in China, you make lamp to export overseas. You ran a successful business and have say 20 millions USD net turnover.

Ok, first of all, chunk of that money will goes to pay tax, which goes into the local district government. Assume the government is not corrupted, they use the money to build better infrastructure and services in your town. Which increase your land value. You may or may not bought your factory, so it may not be related to you, But it may mean something for the store next to you, which sell clothes. Because the business next door is a rental.

Ok, now, your employee who live nearby, discounted for those who own their own properties. Those who rent will need to pay more because your district have better access to underground rail or what not. The land owner need to pay more tax because they need tax and stamp duty to maintain such underground rail or what not. That mean their living expense increase. Then the clothing store next to you have to sell their clothes more expensive to adjust for the rent. Ok, your employee may think, well, if the clothing store I used to shop have gone expensive, they may go for some low grade parallel import. Which they will spend money to those import. Money they spend more and more each year as food, Clothing and land price keep increasing.

As a result, your employee will ask you for a raise because money is not enough to go around. And you will need to up the price to adjust for the raise. Now just think, if you had a client who buy your lamp and install them to say a range hood, up to a point when your lamp is cheaper with relatively good quality, your client will still buy your lamp. However, when price and quality does not stay direct proportional anymore. You either need to cut corner (mean further losing the quality) to stay competitive. Or you will need to earn less to compensate the rise of cost. or you will lose the client.

No imagine that everything and every business connect to each other and you will see how this affect the economy in China as a whole.

It does not matter if China is a hit because they are cheap labour or they are cheap labour with high skill. The basic rule of Economic is, stay competitive or being phase out. Again, you can still keep thinking China is good because it have cheap labour with good skill, but when the next guy comes along, which is cheaper than you and may be slightly worse qualification, but hey, as long as they can finish the job with cheaper price, it's fine with me.

You cannot always stay the cheapest as your country develop. This is a point you should know. You may say whatever you want, but 10-20 years down the world, if China is still on top, you will start to see the tertiary sector is dragging away from secondary sector for miles. If not, then that can only mean China is not on top anymore.

They say you can't find another similar case as China's development in recent years in other countries.
The whole progress of developing in China is really odd, including its system and the consideration.

It is because there are no country as big as China, but there will be one, soon, that country called India. And then there will be a battle of Cheap labour.

 

[Audio]

It is because there are no country as big as China, but there will be one, soon, that country called India. And then there will be a battle of Cheap labour.

Somehow i doubt that.

Iirc China is receiving on average 8 bill.$/month for 30 years in FDI.
In the time to make India the next workshop, 3d printing will have progressed leaps and bounds. (timeframe cca 10-15yrs).
Add to that the never falling prices of oil to run it all around the world and the Chinese worker demand for a higher wage.
Heck, i know of cases where they decided to stop importing from China and make it domestically. It's already reflecting on macroeconomic indicators.

But bottom line-we are all fucked. EU, US is counting on Chinese consumer demand to get them through the tough times, China is waiting on EU and the US to get out of tough times so they buy more goods. Add to that the currency depreciations, masked as QE.....
Magical circle, to whose secrets only the super rich are privy.

 

[jhungary]

Somehow i doubt that.

Iirc China is receiving on average 8 bill.$/month for 30 years in FDI.
In the time to make India the next workshop, 3d printing will have progressed leaps and bounds. (timeframe cca 10-15yrs).
Add to that the never falling prices of oil to run it all around the world and the Chinese worker demand for a higher wage.
Heck, i know of cases where they decided to stop importing from China and make it domestically. It's already reflecting on macroeconomic indicators.

But bottom line-we are all fucked. EU, US is counting on Chinese consumer demand to get them through the tough times, China is waiting on EU and the US to get out of tough times so they buy more goods. Add to that the currency depreciations, masked as QE.....
Magical circle, to whose secrets only the super rich are privy.

Well, I guess it depend on how you see this world.

First of all, the world literally cannot be fcuked, Selected people are fcuked, yes but world in general will survive.

About the Indian remark. I guess it depends on how you are willing to see it. If you want to have India replace China today, it can be done. just how low do you set your target as "Satisfied" infact, more and more factory are going on the next possible location. Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia. So depend on how you see things as "Acceptable" things are always and will always have way out.

Dude, I do not survive in a war just to get hit by a economic meltdown LOL

 

[cnleio]

Before start to explain why i called 2013 China troubles of "high house price", pls see below maps:

China government release M2, print trillion $$$ during ten years of 2001-2011. (unit: trillion U.S dollars)

 

[Audio]

see this world.
how you are willing to see it.

You need to start seeing how all the markets are manipulated. Only money printing is keeping it afloat.

Selected people are fcuked, yes but world in general will survive.

Dude, I do not survive in a war just to get hit by a economic meltdown LOL

Selected people? Really? 99%? That selection?

What kind of arguments are this anyway?.....sure, world will go on bar a ELE (extinction level event), but you might want to ask the dinosaurs how they feel about that-world going on despite them being fucked. Or an ex-SU citizen who survived WWII and saw an economic meltdown.

If you are not the super rich, you belong to this group too, with us, the plebeians who pay (in my case) 43% taxes on my creative work so the world gets the luxury of "going on".

All over the world the system is rigged against you (us?), prime example is housing. People take credits for 20, 40 years just to build a house. Fuck that shit dude.....

 

[tranquilium]

Ok, now, your employee who live nearby, discounted for those who own their own properties. Those who rent will need to pay more because your district have better access to underground rail or what not. The land owner need to pay more tax because they need tax and stamp duty to maintain such underground rail or what not. That mean their living expense increase. Then the clothing store next to you have to sell their clothes more expensive to adjust for the rent. Ok, your employee may think, well, if the clothing store I used to shop have gone expensive, they may go for some low grade parallel import. Which they will spend money to those import. Money they spend more and more each year as food, Clothing and land price keep increasing.

As a result, your employee will ask you for a raise because money is not enough to go around. And you will need to up the price to adjust for the raise. Now just think, if you had a client who buy your lamp and install them to say a range hood, up to a point when your lamp is cheaper with relatively good quality, your client will still buy your lamp. However, when price and quality does not stay direct proportional anymore. You either need to cut corner (mean further losing the quality) to stay competitive. Or you will need to earn less to compensate the rise of cost. or you will lose the client.

I think we are not on the same page. Let me see if I get what you are trying to say correct. I think this is the key sentence in your post: "The land owner need to pay more tax because they need tax and stamp duty to maintain such underground rail or what not. That mean their living expense increase. Then the clothing store next to you have to sell their clothes more expensive to adjust for the rent." Basically, in this sentence, you are assuming that the living expense or CPI (consumer price index) will go up immediately and from your later description that the factory owner needs to cut corner, etc. You are describing a high, or even hyper inflation which drastically increase the production cost of the nation. This is clearly not the case in China and I have quoted the Chinese CPI for the past decade several times now.
I am getting the impression that you are assuming that China is missing a part of the standard money cycle of a nation. Where did you get that idea? PRC has been standing in 1949, did you really think the nation will last this long if it is missing something as basic as money cycle?

Before start to explain why i called 2013 China troubles of "high house price", pls see below maps:

China government release M2, print trillion $$$ during ten years of 2001-2011. (unit: trillion U.S dollars)

I think I already headed off the M2 thing way back on the first page. M2 itself is not an indicator for financial health. The true indicator is CPI and Chinese CPI is healthy.

 

[jhungary]

I think we are not on the same page. Let me see if I get what you are trying to say correct. I think this is the key sentence in your post: "The land owner need to pay more tax because they need tax and stamp duty to maintain such underground rail or what not. That mean their living expense increase. Then the clothing store next to you have to sell their clothes more expensive to adjust for the rent." Basically, in this sentence, you are assuming that the living expense or CPI (consumer price index) will go up immediately and from your later description that the factory owner needs to cut corner, etc. You are describing a high, or even hyper inflation which drastically increase the production cost of the nation. This is clearly not the case in China and I have quoted the Chinese CPI for the past decade several times now.
I am getting the impression that you are assuming that China is missing a part of the standard money cycle of a nation. Where did you get that idea? PRC has been standing in 1949, did you really think the nation will last this long if it is missing something as basic as money cycle?

I think I already headed off the M2 thing way back on the first page. M2 itself is not an indicator for financial health. The true indicator is CPI and Chinese CPI is healthy.

Well. yes, the land price and all development index took time to increase Gradually. But Chinese Development does not start last year, nor does not start in 2000. It's started after the open door policy in 1990s. Well, the time it need for China to take them to the boiling point is about 20 years. Which is today (Not literally today).

The case I was descripting does not happen in these recent year. But it happened 10 to 15 years ago.

Before my mum passed, she had purchase properties in China in 1990, she uses 1 mllions RMB, which she got from selling a properties in Sham Shui Po in Hong Kong) and got 2 small flat for about 110,000 RMB in Shenzhen and Guangdon, and 1 story house for 300k with house and land another 4 story for 350k (. Those properties now worth 10 millions RMB altogether. Which increased 10 fold. But the average salary of the working class in China only jump from 400 USD to 2000 USD (Sorry for the jump between RMB and USD) which only 5 fold. Can you see the problem now??

While the properties in HK only rise 100% (2 fold) and the salary risen about 1.5 during these years
You can get an apartment in HK for 0.8 - 1.5 mil HKD in 1990, today it cost somewhere between 2.8 mil to 3.2 mil HKD. Depending on location

 

[tranquilium]

Well. yes, the land price and all development index took time to increase Gradually. But Chinese Development does not start last year, nor does not start in 2000. It's started after the open door policy in 1990s. Well, the time it need for China to take them to the boiling point is about 20 years. Which is today (Not literally today).

The case I was descripting does not happen in these recent year. But it happened 10 to 15 years ago.

Before my mum passed, she had purchase properties in China in 1990, she uses 1 mllions RMB, which she got from selling a properties in Sham Shui Po in Hong Kong) and got 2 small flat for about 110,000 RMB in Shenzhen and Guangdon, and 1 story house for 300k with house and land another 4 story for 350k (. Those properties now worth 10 millions RMB altogether. Which increased 10 fold. But the average salary of the working class in China only jump from 400 USD to 2000 USD (Sorry for the jump between RMB and USD) which only 5 fold. Can you see the problem now??

While the properties in HK only rise 100% (2 fold) and the salary risen about 1.5 during these years
You can get an apartment in HK for 0.8 - 1.5 mil HKD in 1990, today it cost somewhere between 2.8 mil to 3.2 mil HKD. Depending on location

Chinese economic reform officially begin near the end of 70s. The events that lead up to it originated in the late 60s. Where did we get the "take 20 years" figure? Since the Chinese reforms actually started 35 years ago, are you going to change that figure to 35 years?

So we are backing to using a single item (one that is not even a necessary commodity), at a single location and from the personal experience of a single individual to gouge the overall economic health of a nation now? I doubt the accuracy of any predictions drawn from evidences with such a narrow scope. If this is the case, how do you explain that the Chinese home ownership rates of 90%? This rate is significantly higher than pretty all major nations by a large amount. The only nations that has higher ownership rate are nations with only a few million population instead.

Also, xuxu1457 posted the actual housing price in China on page 2. The price is far from unaffordable and the home ownership rate is there to prove it. This is on top of the fact housing price alone does not indicate the economic health of a nation. CPI is a far better indicator and it shows the economic health of China is just fine.

 

[jhungary]

You need to start seeing how all the markets are manipulated. Only money printing is keeping it afloat.

Selected people? Really? 99%? That selection?

What kind of arguments are this anyway?.....sure, world will go on bar a ELE (extinction level event), but you might want to ask the dinosaurs how they feel about that-world going on despite them being fucked. Or an ex-SU citizen who survived WWII and saw an economic meltdown.

If you are not the super rich, you belong to this group too, with us, the plebeians who pay (in my case) 43% taxes on my creative work so the world gets the luxury of "going on".

All over the world the system is rigged against you (us?), prime example is housing. People take credits for 20, 40 years just to build a house. Fuck that shit dude.....

Not totally agreeing with you.

Once again, people are fail to see how QE work.

First of all, QE is a gamble. Alright, this is one major gamble but if we do not do QE, we may as well have our economy broken.

People only see the printing money side of the QE, but they fail to see with those money being printed, they are to follow a vigorous investing portfolio with both inland and overseas investment.

The truth behind QE was when we Print the new money, we use them directly to purchase non-tangible asset (such as bond) with security. Most likely Mortgage Based bonding. What it was is to relieve the housing market and the loan status by issuing a low interest rate quantitative measure to so-called "bail out" the mortgage woe. Using the money or credit that relieved by this act to flood the local and international market with purchase, thus restarting the economy.

Think of it like a giant credit card. With low interest rate. and US is using said Credit card to pay and bail out some bad debt that are due, as long as we can recover the card debt before the bank chase us down we are still good.

Of course there is risk involve, but what else did US got to lose? And since 2010, US Economic have turned and shown some economic activities increase in the latter half of 2010. Japan has also been using the same way and they have successfully bought the deflation back from -2.0% to + 0.1%. And infact they are planning a next round of QE which is bigger and with twice the money as before

Printing money is a solution, if you know how to use them.

 

[jhungary]

Chinese economic reform officially begin near the end of 70s. The events that lead up to it originated in the late 60s. Where did we get the "take 20 years" figure? Since the Chinese reforms actually started 35 years ago, are you going to change that figure to 35 years?

Actually no, the Bulk of Chinese Economic Development started in the end of 1980s to beginning of 1990s. They started the Program in 1970 but they needed to switch and change. hence the 20 years gap I mentioned.

??GDP_????

人均GDP在六十年代增速仅仅为17%，到七十年代增至70%，到了飞速发展的八十年代以63%的速度一举超过印度，最后在九十年代更是达到了175%的高峰。然而中国的繁荣仍然集中在沿海和南方省份，同时近几年中国已经努力将其繁荣扩展至内陆省份和东北传统工业带。

在20世纪八十年代，中国试图将中央计划与市场主导化改革相结合，提高生产力，人民生活水平，和科技质量同时不加剧通货膨胀、失业和财政赤字；谋求农业改革，破除公社体系和引入家庭联产承包责任制，这让农民在农业活动中有更大的自主决定权；政府还鼓励非农业活动，比如乡村地区的农村企业；促使国有企业更加自主的经营，提高市场竞争力，并且促进大陆与境外贸易企业的直接接触；同时也更加地依赖境外的资金与进口。

The fact is, in the 60s to 90s change , we saw the complete switch from Agricultural sector to Industrial sector, which take approximately 20 years to change in any country in the world. (USA - 1880-1900s (the gilded Ages), UK 1800 - 1820s well, you can say China is different but well, honestly we don't know that.

Or you expect your country reform, then BAM, the reform and result changed immediately?

So we are backing to using a single item (one that is not even a necessary commodity), at a single location and from the personal experience of a single individual to gouge the overall economic health of a nation now? I doubt the accuracy of any predictions drawn from evidences with such a narrow scope. If this is the case, how do you explain that the Chinese home ownership rates of 90%? This rate is significantly higher than pretty all major nations by a large amount. The only nations that has higher ownership rate are nations with only a few million population instead.

And that was just the example I gave, it can be related to many different field.

Or you want me to do a comprehensive list to you on what actually affected? Dude, even I won't do that on my economic thesis due next month.....

Also, xuxu1457 posted the actual housing price in China on page 2. The price is far from unaffordable and the home ownership rate is there to prove it. This is on top of the fact housing price alone does not indicate the economic health of a nation. CPI is a far better indicator and it shows the economic health of China is just fine.

dude, that's (affordability) really much depends on who's buying the house? And which properties you are going for

What we can say is on an average case. How exactly do you mean affordable??

For an example if an apartment in Beijing is 100 sq meter, according to his average price. It will cost about 3.5 millions. How does it mean exactly "Affordable" to an average blue collar worker who earn 140k RMB a year? it will take him 30 years or more to pay off the mortgage.

of course the with the same properties, it will be easier for people who earn maybe 20,000 RMB a year, but consider the average GDP per person made in Beijing is 80000 RMB a year (7200 a month) Then what about the rest of the people, better yet, how does it "Affordable" to the general population??

 

[tranquilium]

Actually no, the Bulk of Chinese Economic Development started in the end of 1980s to beginning of 1990s. They started the Program in 1970 but they needed to switch and change. hence the 20 years gap I mentioned.
??GDP_????
The fact is, in the 60s to 90s change , we saw the complete switch from Agricultural sector to Industrial sector, which take approximately 20 years to change in any country in the world. (USA - 1880-1900s (the gilded Ages), UK 1800 - 1820s well, you can say China is different but well, honestly we don't know that.

Your original claim is that China's open door policy begin at 1990. My answer is refuting it. Try not to change the topic.

Or you expect your country reform, then BAM, the reform and result changed immediately?
And that was just the example I gave, it can be related to many different field.
Or you want me to do a comprehensive list to you on what actually affected? Dude, even I won't do that on my economic thesis due next month.....

So you will not give the claim a creditable defense, but will take it as the conclusion of Chinese economy?

dude, that's (affordability) really much depends on who's buying the house? And which properties you are going for
What we can say is on an average case. How exactly do you mean affordable??
For an example if an apartment in Beijing is 100 sq meter, according to his average price. It will cost about 3.5 millions. How does it mean exactly "Affordable" to an average blue collar worker who earn 140k RMB a year? it will take him 30 years or more to pay off the mortgage.
of course the with the same properties, it will be easier for people who earn maybe 20,000 RMB a year, but consider the average GDP per person made in Beijing is 80000 RMB a year (7200 a month) Then what about the rest of the people, better yet, how does it "Affordable" to the general population??

I am unaware that all US citizens, especially blue collar workers, are supposed to be able to afford housing in Manhattan and Beverly Hills. So I will ask the same thing again. Where did the 90% home ownership rate in China comes from if people can't actually afford houses?