1914 again? Today’s world bears number of striking similarities with the build-up to World War I

[Indo-guy]

1914 again? Today’s world bears number of striking similarities with the build-up to World War I - The Times of India


History never repeats itself, but it sure does rhyme, it has been said. Now an internationally respected historian is warning that today's world bears a number of striking similarities with the build-up to the first World War.

The newly mechanised armies of the early 20th century produced unprecedented slaughter on the battlefields of the "war to end all wars" after a spark lit in the Balkans with the assassination of the Austro-Hungarian Empire's Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

Professor Margaret MacMillan, of the University of Cambridge, argues that the Middle East could be viewed as the modern-day equivalent of this turbulent region. A nuclear arms race that would be likely to start if Iran developed a bomb "would make for a very dangerous world indeed, which could lead to a recreation of the kind of tinderbox that exploded in the Balkans 100 years ago - only this time with mushroom clouds," she writes in an essay for the Brookings Institution, a leading US think-tank.

"While history does not repeat itself precisely, the Middle East today bears a worrying resemblance to the Balkans then," she says. "A similar mix of toxic nationalisms threatens to draw in outside powers as the US, Turkey, Russia, and Iran look to protect their interests and clients."

Professor MacMillan highlights a string of other parallels between today and a century ago. Modern-day Islamist terrorists mirror the revolutionary communists and anarchists who carried out a string of assassinations in the name of a philosophy that sanctioned murder to achieve their vision of a better world. And in 1914, Germany was a rising force that sought to challenge the pre-eminent power of the time, the UK. Today, the growing power of China is perceived as a threat by some in the US.

Transitions from one world power to another are always seen as dangerous times. In the late 1920s, the US drew up plans for a war with the British Empire that would have seen the invasion of Canada, partly because it was assumed conflict would break out as America took over as the world's main superpower.

Professor MacMillan, whose book The War That Ended Peace was published last year, said right-wing and nationalist sentiments were rising across the world and had also been a factor before the First World War

In China and Japan, patriotic passions have been inflamed by the dispute over a string of islands in the East China Sea, known as the Senkakus in Japan and Diaoyus in China. "Increased Chinese military spending and the build-up of its naval capacity suggest to many American strategists that China intends to challenge the US as a Pacific power, and we are now seeing an arms race between the two countries in that region," she writes in her essay. "The Wall Street Journal has authoritative reports that the Pentagon is preparing war plans against China - just in case."

The US has a mutual self-defence treaty with Japan and in 2012 it specifically confirmed that this covered the Senkaku Islands. In November, China set up an "air defence" zone over the islands and a few days later two American B-52 bombers flew over the islands in defiance of Beijing.

"It is tempting - and sobering -to compare today's relationship between China and the US with that between Germany and England a century ago," Professor MacMillan writes. She points to the growing disquiet in the US over Chinese investment in America while "the Chinese complain that the US treats them as a second-rate power".

Another similarity highlighted by the historian is the belief that a full-scale war between the major powers is unthinkable after such a prolonged period of peace. "Now, as then, the march of globalisation has lulled us into a false sense of safety," she says. "The 100th anniversary of 1914 should make us reflect anew on our vulnerability to human error, sudden catastrophes, and sheer accident.

"Instead of muddling along from one crisis to another, now is the time to think again about those dreadful lessons of a century ago in the hope that our leaders, with our encouragement, will think about how they can work together to build a stable international order."

 

[Genesis]

Everybody try to compare past to present.

The past isn't present, and if the past is any indication, world war one happened once, so did world war two, as did Napoleonic wars, the thirty years war, the hundred years war, and so on.

What it means is that all wars have different beginnings and different endings, it is foolish to look at one and draw conclusion to another when so much is different.


There is no Junker class in China as much as some would like you to believe otherwise, there is no military government and no true central figure that can rally support like the Kaiser. There isn't a desire for expansion like the Germans, I know some like to say there is, but China wants control of a sea that wouldn't prohibit any other from using, wants islands that we lost in the first Sino Japanese war treaty, wants control of parts of Tibet. German wants France and Russia.

Germans fought wars to achieve that end, but while we have done somewhat the same, Sino india war, but the Germans gotten much more confident and militarized, we have become much calmer and development oriented since that time.

If you think these the same, than the holocaust and a slap on the wrist is also the same.


America is vastly superior in economy and technology to China as oppose to the strength of the German empire to the rest of Europe.


With the current legitimacy of CCP being based on economy and American president cannot let the economy get worse, war would destroy us all without a shot being fired.


One can clearly see that China must do things to make the people believe it will defend them if it calls for it, while America needs to let its allies think they are safe to satisfy their people.

We are walking a tighter rope than desired, but the thing about capable people is that they won't fall even on a thread, while idiots fall while walking on ground.

 

[user1]

The real reason of First World War was the increasing technological superiority of Germans and their growing needs for Oil.


Most of the technological innovations that made Britain a World Power were not done by scientists but by engineers and tinkerers. Britain at the start of 20th century was a waning power. The emerging fields of Chemistry, Petroleum and Electrical Engineering needed educated workforce, scientific research and economies of scale. Germans and Americans pulled ahead of Britain at the beginning of 20the century. Britain circa. 1914 was 'in many ways a working museum of Industrial archaeology'.


It was the German attempts to Middle East Oil that threatened the British; they saw building of Berlin-Baghdad railway a direct military threat. Consequently, they declared Kuwait as a 'British protectorate' to thwart any German moves to reach Southern Oceans. The last link of concern was railways through Serbia. But Austrian heir apparent was murdered in Serbia before it could be completed. Austria responded by starting WWI.


By the end of WWI, US was the richest Industrial and Agricultural power of the world with it's fields and factories producing a lot more than could be consumed at home. US was in search of new markets. The area of British (Sterling Pound) influence was large and was jealously guarded by Britain. No wonder, US president Woodrow Wilson was so vocal about self-determination of the Nations in Post-War peace conferences. He wanted the opening up of the world for US trade. A war weary Britain was also looking for a new model in which power in the dominions would be delegated to local toadies who would run the governments to the liking of their former masters.


There still was one large Soviet Communist threat looming. Just a quote is enough from Colonel David Sterling, founder of Britain's elite Special Air Services: The greatest mistake we British made was to think we could play the German Empire against the Russian Empire, and have them bleed one another to death. There was an alleged secret agreement between Britain and Germany in which Germany would control the mainland Europe and keep the spread of Communism at bay mostly without using the force. But Hitler had his own plans.


The credit to Postwar Hitler government started to flow from Bank of England. The subsequent German attack on Russia and France testifies that what were Hitler's real aims although they were also tainted by a desire to reach Russain oil fields in the Caucasus.


Once the WWII ended, Churchill planned and persuaded US to attack on Russia; the codename of this operation was 'Operation Unthinkable'. Americans were not interested in more war; they thought that if they simply show USSR their nuclear power (attacks on Japan) they would behave.


After the war the world was divided into a Grand Area of US influence and the Rest where Russians/Chinese could protect their interests. Russians and Chinese proved to be more resilient than was previously thought; the result was a change in US strategy: Germany and Japan were initially slated to be turned into Agricultural nations; but, the threat of Communism changed US policies and full support was given to these Nations to develop at their full potential with full US technological help and, of course, US military bases. 'Japan was allowed to use 42000 technology patents without challenge'. If we look around and see the other technologically advanced countries in Asia, the same picture emerges: Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore.


The WTO predecessors (GATT) and IMF and World Bank were created; Marshall Plan was implemented in Western Europe and World was made a consumer of US (plus it's allies) products. The strategically most important oil areas were gradually snatched from British hands by the promotion of 'Doctirne of Self-determination'. Slowly, US moved out from manufacturing and went more towards, finance and services. WTO was used to open 70 countries to US telecommunication companies as a way of getting grip on communications networks. Revelations of Edward Snowden are a testimony to the attempts of US Govt. (Prism, Xkeyscore, Tempora, Clipper Chips) to control and eavesdrop the Globe.


If we look at China the emerging Super Power, it has reached exactly at the US moment when Senator Albert Beveridge had said in 1894, 'American factories are making more than American people can use; American soil is producing more than they can consume. Fate has written our policy for us. The trade of the World must and shall be ours'.


The difference between those times (1914) and our times it that the biggest beneficiary of US doctored WTO is not US but China. USD is losing it's grip; there are talks about an alternative World Reserve Currency other than USD. A majority of Chinese production is consumed inside China and consumption inside China will continue for at least a few more decades – as the living standards of Chinese rise - and will continue the Chinese economy to expand. Unlike, Hitler's Germany, China has a historical reputation of solving most of it's foreign policy matters through diplomacy and engagement rather than war. The growth in Chinese manufacturing has kept the inflation controlled even in the rich nations where cheaper Chinese goods have increased the buying power of the masses. A Global War, hence, a closing of World Trade will immediately increase the price of goods in Western Nations while they try to restructure their economies from services and defence production. China is the largest holder of US debts and can affect the US economic growth – although it is more like a win – win situation for both nations.


Today's World is a lot more integrated than it was in 1914. The dependencies of Global economies are to such affect that the crises in 1997 and 2008 affected almost all the economies which were integrated to World Economy.


The other big difference is that we are now living in 'Post-Normal' times. Information is immediately available at our figer-tips. It is far more difficult to raise the passions in the technologically savvy, Western nations and raise their citizens to the prospect of war.


Finally, the real game changer is Nuclear Arsenal of the World, it is the biggest guarantor that there will not be a Global War. There will be regional wars and even those could be averted before they would start: think US plans to invade Syria. What happened to them!