17 Corps: The Army just got itself a white elephant

[Capt.Popeye]

Capt dont get yourself to his level!

No, not really. The compassionate person that I am; I felt that I should offer more employment opportunities to the "more disadvantaged".

 

[Bhai Zakir]

We need this kinds of news to raise our defense budget and also look into crucial made in India products.

 

[HariPrasad]

Our strategy should be attack is the best form of defense. If Chinese enter Indian territory, We should intrude into carefully selected area. and stay there. We should Plan our resources in such a manner thet they are damaged least in enemy attack but when required, they can regroup swiftly and carry out a coordinated attack (Something similar to cold start) We should also plan to attack and isolate Tibet which should be easy. We need to carry more and more exercise to validate the plans as we are going to fight with china with less resources. Highly specific and accurate weapons are going to play very important role along with very accurate planning.

 

[45'22']

Our strategy should be attack is the best form of defense. If Chinese enter Indian territory, We should intrude into carefully selected area. and stay there. We should Plan our resources in such a manner thet they are damaged least in enemy attack but when required, they can regroup swiftly and carry out a coordinated attack (Something similar to cold start) We should also plan to attack and isolate Tibet which should be easy. We need to carry more and more exercise to validate the plans as we are going to fight with china with less resources. Highly specific and accurate weapons are going to play very important role along with very accurate planning.

the chinese are just testing the waters..........and due to cowardice of indian govt.......a wrong signal is being sent........

i say when they intrude......catch them but dont highlight such activity b4 media........ti will ultimately stop them and they wont be able to accuse India even

 

[Sergi]

Ajay Sukla has many issues apart form senstional news

 

[Pulsar]

Its estimated price tag of Rs 64,000 crore over the next five-eight years requires Rs 8,000 crore to be spent annually, for eight consecutive years, as units are raised and equipment procured.

But what about the Rs 1,60,000 crores per year or nearly $30 billion of tax payers money going into a crappy freebie scheme like the food security bill EVERY YEAR, till kingdom come? Why isn't Ajay Shukla speaking about this wasteful expenditure to feed Congress's vote bank?

Scrap this scheme and we'll have enough to raise another strike corps!

 

[cirr]

Interesting to note that there are only 2 PLA mechanized brigades and a few frontiers regiments totaling some 15000 men facing hundreds of thousands of Indian soldiers。

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Mr shukla was still feeling the after party effects of new year while typing this article...

2 points is important - One do produce indigenous weapons which are matching or bettering foreign Imports. Second arm them with requisite stuff be it armaments or clothes or howitzers/apaches/etc..

Ask our political party to stop wasting money on food security bill or NREGA and divert funds to army/IAF/IN... most folks forget that interior india, an army soldier has more respect than even a village headman (sarpanch).. there are villages where generation after generation served armed forces caring non abt the so called salary and lack of equipment/etc.. Sadly, our politicians forget that... they don understand that its much better to spend on the 3 services - IA/IAF/IN then on popularity measures which appease so called vote bank politics temporarily...

BTW Abingdonboy is absolutely correct that india defense spend is going to go up dramatically and we already have the so called requisite provisions for creating and supporting such expenses..

The writer Mr Shukla shud tell us why IA is having issues of financial constraints and what government shud have done to support IA mountain Corps.. and White Elephant .. my foot.. ask him to go and serve mountain area with what we have as of now.. Mark my words, he would come back and say we lack this and we lack that and government does nt give this and that to IA.. Then he wont talk of spiraling cash outflows and salary uploads per month...

Its hypocrites like him who believe they are doing great work for this nation that has made public opinion go haywire... nobody gives solution.. just point finger and expects god to bless and solve the issues.. Nonsense..

 

[neehar]

Just arbitrarily allocate budget to defense is a very bad precedence. All defense budget should pass the congress. At least that is how its done in the US.

we have parliament.and it passes the budget for the financial year
BUDGET IN PARLIAMENT

 

[Mitro]

After 2020 $100 billion to spend on defence baccho world is experiencing depression and it will make matter worst people will die of hunger and you guys worry about imagenery enemy when poor people die of malnourishement ,farmer suicide ,lack of infrastructure,school,hospital .

 

[Arya Desa]

I hope the army one day field the indolent madrassis. We could win any war as no one would be able to see them at night but I fear they may be too much of cowards to fight, and die, for India.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

After 2020 $100 billion to spend on defence baccho world is experiencing depression and it will make matter worst people will die of hunger and you guys worry about imagenery enemy when poor people die of malnourishement ,farmer suicide ,lack of infrastructure,school,hospital .

the fundamental factor for growth remains the same as it was few years back.. the below article can provide some insight on those factors which can easily help us address the growth story and is the base for such spending projections

India’s macro-economic outlook 2020

Over the years, the Indian economy has gone through phases of remarkable transformation. After witnessing the Hindu rate of growth for the first three decades post-independence, the Indian economy got its first “big push” with the first phase of economic reforms in 1980s. The economy recorded annual average growth of around 5.6% during this decade, with significant decline in population below the poverty line from more than 50% in late 1970s to below 40% in late 1980s. The second major push came post 1991, following liberalisation of the economy, which helped it to move on to a sustainable higher growth trajectory. India’s growth performance was even more impressive in the subsequent decade, with per capita income (at constant prices) rising to र38,408 in FY10, versus र16,065 in FY91. Although India has made significant economic progress as the result of reforms over the years, it still has a long distance to go before it is able to make abject poverty a history.

India has been increasingly looked at as an engine that will drive global growth in future. This is reason enough to look at the economic prospects of India over the current decade. Our forecasts indicate that the likelihood of India sustaining 9.0% growth during the current decade is very high. According to D&B’s estimate, in the journey during the current decade as India traverses a high growth path, it would eventually surpass Japan’s GDP level (as in 2010 at current US$) by FY20. The concomitant rise in income levels coupled with increasing young working-age population will work towards increasing the share of discretionary spending in private final consumption expenditure and raising the savings rate. Growth of urban population will be one of the most important demographic shifts that we will witness during the current decade.

Infrastructure will be both a cause and a consequence of economic growth during the current decade. The rising incomes and urbanisation will boost demand for infrastructure investment in sectors such as electricity, roads, telecom et al. Massive infrastructure investment by the Government along with increased investment activity by the private sector will accelerate overall investment during the current decade. Government of India’s (GoI’s) thrust on infrastructure development in recent years and the structural policy changes is expected to provide the third “big push” to the Indian economy, enabling it to achieve inclusive growth during the current decade (Current decade refers to FY11-FY20).

The current decade will be rich with profound changes, that will present us with both challenges and opportunities. Our forecasts for the current decade can help us to prepare for future challenges and seize opportunities. Economic growth during the current decade will bring with it challenges in terms of meeting rising energy needs in ways that are cost-efficient, sustainable and environmentally compatible. Pressures on natural resources will exacerbate during the current decade. Increased demand and environmental concerns will make innovation imperative. The solution will need to lie in technology that meets rising energy demand that are cost-efficient, sustainable and environmentally compatible and reduces reliance on natural resources.

India to become US$ 5 trillion (current market price) economy by 2020

India’s Real GDP is expected to register an average growth of around 9.2% during FY11-FY20, on the back of robust private consumption demand, increased infrastructure spending, substantial growth in investment activity and strong growth in services sector.

Strong GDP growth is expected to result in considerable increase in real per capita income, which in turn would lead to significant reduction in the percentage of people living below the poverty line. With rising income levels, India is expected to move from a low-income country to a middle-income or upper-middle income country by 2020.

India’s growth to be driven by a rapidly expanding services sector

Despite reduction in net sown area due to growing urbanisation and industrialisation, the agriculture sector is expected to record an average growth of 4.3% (the growth forecast for agriculture sector is underscored by an assumption of normal monsoon)during FY11-FY20 owing to increase in investment in agricultural infrastructure such as irrigation facilities, warehousing and cold storage.

We expect the industrial component of GDP to grow at an average of 9.5% during FY11-FY20, backed by robust private consumption demand, increase in India’s exports, growth in domestic investments and government’s thrust on infrastructure development. Among industries, sectors such as ‘basic, metal & alloy industries’, ‘metal products & parts’ and ‘machinery & equipment’ other than transport equipment are likely to see sustained growth during the current decade owing to strong investment demand and increased expenditure on infrastructure development. Moreover, rising income levels and increasing of the middle class working-age population are expected to result in higher demand for consumer durables.

According to D&B’s estimates, substantial growth is expected in the services component of GDP during the current decade. Growth in services sector is expected to average at 10.1% during FY11-FY20, largely driven by robust growth in hotels, transport, communication and financial services.

The analysis of sectoral GDP data reveals the pattern generally exhibited by economies in the phase of rapid growth. Despite around 4% growth in the agriculture sector, its share in aggregate GDP is expected to decline further from 14.6% in FY10 to 9.2% in FY20. This can largely be attributed to increased traction in services. While the share of services sector is expected to surge from 57.3% in FY10 to 62.0% in FY20, the industrial sector’s share in aggregate GDP is expected to increase marginally from 28.1% in FY10 to 28.8% in FY20.

Strong growth in domestic savings to support domestic investment

The government’s thrust on infrastructure development along with increased investment activity by the private sector is expected to accelerate the overall investment during the current decade. As per D&B’s expectations investment as measured by Gross Domestic Capital Formation (GDCF) is expected to increase to 41.3% of GDP during FY20 from 36.5% in FY10.

A major proportion of investment would be funded by domestic savings, which means lower recourse to external finance. As per D&B’s forecasts, aggregate savings as a percentage of GDP is expected to surge to 38.8% in FY20, as against 33.7% in FY10; domestic savings would primarily be driven by rising income levels. Moreover, a growing middle class population and changing age composition of the country3 are expected to help raise saving rates.

Share of discretionary spending expected to rise

Rising income levels coupled with increasing young working-age population will lead to significant growth in private final consumption expenditure. As per D&B’s projections, growth in private final consumption expenditure is expected to average at around 9.1% during FY11-FY20.

Although consumption will continue to be the major contributor to GDP during the current decade, its share is expected to decline gradually. The share of private final consumption expenditure in total GDP (at constant market prices) is expected to decline to 57.6% in FY20 from 58.5% in FY10. This will be primarily due to significant increase in domestic investment activity.

Further, the analysis of consumption expenditure data reveals a changing pattern of private final consumption expenditure during the current decade. The share of spending in basic goods (food, beverages & tobacco and clothing & foot wear) in private final consumption expenditure is expected to decline substantially to 28.0% in FY20, versus 40.3% in FY10. On the other hand, share of discretionary spending (rent, fuel & power, furniture, medical care, transport & communication, recreation & education) is projected to increase considerably.

Rising proportion of working-age population

The total population of India is projected to rise to 1.3 bn (according to Population projection for India and states 2001 - 2026; Report of the Technical group of Population; Projections constituted by the National Commission on Population May 2006)in 2020 from 1.2 bn in 2011, as per Census of India estimates. The crude birth rate is projected to decline to 18.0 during 2016-20, as against 21.3 in 2006-10, due to falling levels of total fertility. On the other hand, the crude death rate is expected to decline marginally to 7.1 during 2016-20, compared with 7.3 during 2006-10, owing to increase in expectation of life at birth and increased access to medical care.

Further, with declining fertility, the proportion of population aged less than 15 years is projected to decline from 35.4% in 2001 to 25.1% in 2021. The proportion of the middle (15-59 years) and older age (60+) population, on the other hand, is expected to increase substantially by 2020. In fact, the proportion of population in the working age group (15-59 years) is expected to rise from 57.7% in 2001 to 64.2% in 2021. Substantial rise in the workingage population or a reduction in dependency ratio augurs well for growth momentum of the Indian economy going forward, as it will result in ample supply of labour for productive purposes and in turn lead to rising income levels.

Further, with rapid industrialisation and development of Tier II and Tier III cities, the urban population in the country, which was 28.0% in 2001, is expected to increase to 32.1% in 2020.

Source: D&B report on Indian Economy 2020 outlook
India 2020 Economy Outlook

Euromonitor predicts that the world’s five largest economies in 2020, measured in Purchasing Power Parity terms (PPP) will be:



Source: Euromonitor International Euromonitor International from national statistics/Eurostat/OECD/UN/International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics (IFS)

 

[Mitro]

The question on the lips of economists and market mavens is this: Is it Ben Bernanke's fault?

Here's how the story goes: As the Federal Reserve has deployed trillions of newly created dollars to buy bonds, that money has had to go somewhere. With banks not seeing much demand for loans in the United States, the money has instead found its way into the global financial system, and in particular to buy higher-yielding bonds in emerging nations. If you are tired of earning a piddling 2 percent on your U.S. Treasury bonds, a rate pushed low by the fact that the Fed has been buying them, then making 5 percent on your money in Indonesian bonds or 7 percent from Indian bonds looks pretty good, even with the greater risk attached.

So a side effect of the Fed's efforts to stimulate the U.S. economy may well have been a gush of money into emerging economies with open capital accounts (which is the big thing that makes China different from the Indias and Indonesias of the world).

Now, of course, the Fed is starting to eye an end to its QE policies. It may well begin tapering the pace of new bond purchases less than a month from now, at its September policy meeting. If the economy evolves the way the central bank leaders expect it will, the Fed won't be buying new bonds at all at this time next year. Suddenly, whatever artificial boost that emerging market bonds and currencies have received from Fed policy will fade.
India’s currency is collapsing. Is it Ben Bernanke’s fault?

India’s macro-economic outlook 2020

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The tapering programme actually should not affect other countries because the QE programme was meant to stimulate the US economy really. But quite to the contrary, it ended up being used to invest in emerging markets where returns were better. Lending in the USA has been circumspect and hence the funds naturally turned to financial investments. However, from the point of view of the recipients, the story has turned out to be different. This was an unexpected bonus which kept the markets up, as both the debt and equity segments flourished. But any withdrawal of such funds started to have repercussions on the forex position that eventually led to large scale depreciation of currencies.

Based on the fact that the outflow from June onwards was significant, one can surmise that the tapering programme was an important factor for such investors. Therefore, there would be a continuation of such outflows now that this is a reality. The RBI will have to see whether the balance of payments turns worse or remains stable since May there have been two very positive developments for us. The first is that the current account deficit has come down sharply with imports coming down and exports going up. Second, through the forex swap facility, we have garnered around $ 34 billion, which has shored up our reserves. Therefore, even an outflow of another $ 5-10 billion may not hurt as that badly, and we can afford to peg interest rates to inflation objective and not such funds.
Further, with the tapering programme to be calibrated with the growth process in USA any move by the Fed would be linked to higher growth in the economy, which in turn will better our own prospects for exports. Therefore, there is a silver lining here.

What US Fed tapering means for India | Firstpost




The Wall Street Journal asked Bertrand Badré, chief financial officer at the World Bank Group, for his views on emerging Asia’s resilience to a change in policy at the U.S. central bank, where economic reforms are most needed and other challenges facing the region.

WSJ: Has Asia seen the worst of the impact from Fed tapering?

BB: Asia will remain the growth engine of the world economy … On the other hand (tapering) will create pressure on Asian economies as well as most Latin American economies. This is a big challenge. First of all, interest rates are likely to rise, spreads are likely to widen, probably there’ll be more differentiation between countries. And second, the capital flows are likely to be redirected to the U.S. or to developed economies which are doing better. The main issue is whether this will happen smoothly over time, or whether we will have a brutal adjustment. We do believe that it can happen relatively smoothly – that’s our central scenario. There might be hiccups. The main risk is a market overreaction, as happened in May.

What structural issues would you particularly like to see addressed?

It depends from one country to another. China’s a case in itself. But if you come back to countries like India or Indonesia or Brazil or others, part of the issue is that these countries are facing constraints on the supply side of the economy. They are already at full capacity today, so if they want to do more, they need to handle some constraints on the supply side: whether it’s infrastructure, whether it’s trade policy, whether it’s administrative reform. It’s easier said than done.

How can we make this work? It requires adjustment on all sides of the table. The recipient government has to make the climate more attractive; regulatory framework can be discussed in developed economies; guarantees can be provided by the international system. It’s a mix of all these things, but it needs to be addressed.

On the positive side, the fact that the Indonesian government started to decrease (fuel) subsidies this summer, one year before the election, was a very important signal that they think it’s a serious situation


How about India?

I think India was in the situation where there was some overreaction and now you’ve seen that the latest statistics were better. The appointment of Raghuram Rajan as the head of the central bank is a pretty strong signal. I think it took people by surprise when in August he made his first speech to say reform of the banking system is his priority. That being said, we are turning to an election process, which in India is complex. Ahead of the election, they are maintaining – broadly speaking – the policy mix and resisting the temptation which sometimes materializes before an election. The challenges will be for the next government to address the structural issues . Infrastructure finance is one of them. But this is very important.

Q&A: How Would Fed Tapering Impact Asia? - Real Time Economics - WSJ

 

[Nan Yang]

A few months ago, read that China aggressive provocation at the borders is to force India to divert funds away from its Navy. Since China is already at a advantage position at the disputed border.


Reminds me of the same strategy during the Spring and Autumn period when the diplomats of the smaller Southern Yue state convinced the larger state of Wu to divert funds to build a water canal north so that Wu navy could dominate the North instead. The state of Yue then used the time to build up their forces and in a surprise attack, captured Wu capital.


Also during the Warring state the weaker Han state convinced the state of Qin to divert funds to build large irrigation projects thus managed to delay being attack by the state of Qin. Those irrigation projects are still working today more than 2,000 years later.