In the long term, how will TPP even thrive and grow without the BRIC countries. They have a gigantic share of the world's population for potential economic development for the rest of the 21st Century. How can the USA ignore them from TPP? Why even exclude most of Eurasia from the trade agreement?
We need to see clear the TPP. Members: 6 developed nations, USA, Japan, Canada, Australia, Singapore and NZ; 6 developing nations, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunie, Mexico, Peru and Chile, whose size are not huge, except Mexico, Vietnam.
As to my opinion1if USA and Japan(these the mainly two big developed ones) want to pour their products to developing nations, the 6 nations obvisou are not big enough market. So the agreement is not about trade.
2. Manufacturing bases, Brunie, Peru and Chile mainly export resources, they don't have population to receive vast manufacturing job, in this case, Vietnam and Mexico will benefits from the industrial transfer. But again, USA and Japan have transferred low-profits indtury aboard for decades, how many they can transfer? This part will impact Chinese economy mostly. Someone analysis China will transfer some manufacturing industry to Vietnam or Mexico, to meet the TTP, shoes, textile, tools, steel fabrication etc. This impacts depend on if China can succeed in upgrading industry or not. If success, China also want those industry out, if failed, unemployment ratio will rise.
3. Among these 12 nations, China has free-trade agreement with Australia, Singapore, Asean, Newzealand, Peru and Chile. So the bilateral trading won't be influenced and China is their main importer of iron, milk, service and mines. The industry mainly refers to resources.
4. China can cooperate more with Brics, invest more in South America and Africa to maitain or keep industrial train. And Rcep is under negotiation, western belt and road is under construction.
5. These large-scale agreement TPP, RCEP, Belt and Road, China-Japan-Korea FTAwill impact Asia, along with nearby continent for decades, short time it won't has quick feedbacks.