100% price escalation on Rafale fighter aircraft to Rs 1.75 lakh crore likely to dent IAF's strike c

[Abingdonboy]

Not at all, its not the research that dogged the jet. It was piss poor project management. That has little to do with Aviation or any industry.. but rather management science.
Perhaps the fact that it was a government led initiative led to this.. by contrast.. the US aircraft industry has been a private ..and hence competitive venture since its inception.

How so? 20 years (1993-2013) from project's funding to IOC-2 clearance overcoming all of what @h0mer as stated and some sanctions thrown in to the mix along the way. It really is not bad.....

 

[janon]

any quotable link>?

It's in Russian, I'll post the original and the google translated version -

ВЕДОМОСТИ - Интервью - Эрик Траппье, президент и гендиректор Dassault Aviation

Google Translate

What is the total amount of the contract?

— Это конфиденциальная информация, нужно спрашивать об этом у индийского правительства. - This is confidential information you need to ask this from the Indian government.

— Насколько верна оценка в $20 млрд? - As far as the estimate of $ 20 billion?

— Нет, это гораздо больше. - No, it's much more.

 

[SQ8]

How so? 20 years (1993-2013) from project's funding to IOC-2 clearance overcoming all of what @h0mer as stated and some sanctions thrown in to the mix along the way. It really is not bad.....

I thought the program was older than 1990?? to replace the Ajeet??

The current aircraft seems quite full of material that is sanction able.. but regardless .. development process was dogged by constant haggling on what the aircraft is going to be. All the sanctions and research required could not make up for the delays due to simple mismanagement of the program. What has been achieved could have been achieved much earlier if not for plain mismanagement.

 

[Jade]

$120 million per plane is too high for a country like India even with the threats around.

I think its high time to look for alternatives rather than dragging and wasting- time, patience, energy and money.

If the price was so high, how was Rafale selected in the first place

 

[SrNair]

We were offered the F-18SH, not regular F-18s. The super hornets are not going to be replaced by the F-35. The F-18 E/F is a much newer and better bird than the older hornets, just like the mig-35 vis a vis mig 29.

Sir do you actually trust US?I cant trust a country like that.

 

[Pakistanisage]

I think the actual price escalation is 80% as the contract price went up from 10 Billion USD to 18 Billion USD. I guess the other 20% is from the Indian Rupee devaluation , if you were comparing the prices in Indian Rupee.

If the price was so high, how was Rafale selected in the first place

When the price was negotiated it was lower but because the Indian DoD did not finalize , India did not get a lock on the purchase price and consequently they will have to pay the current price.

 

[Markus]

Cancel MMRCA and Order 40 off-the-shelf Rafale jets for the strategic nuclear forces and increase Su-30 MKI headcount by another 120.

I know Su30 is heavy class but there is no alternative at this point.

Then hope that Tejas will perform well and PAK-FA will come in another 5/6 years.

 

[janon]

Sir do you actually trust US?I cant trust a country like that.

That's a different issue. But my point was that the USN is not replacing super hornets any time soon. They will serve for a quarter century more, at least.

As to this point, you do realize that the US supplies arms to almost every country in the world, right? They would not be such a friggin big defence supplier if nobody trusted them. Our own primary threat from Pakistan are their US supplied F-16s.

 

[Jade]

I think the actual price escalation is 80% as the contract price went up from 10 Billion USD to 18 Billion USD. I guess the other 20% is from the Indian Rupee devaluation , if you were comparing the prices in Indian Rupee.





When the price was negotiated it was lower but because the Indian DoD did not finalize , India did not get a lock on the purchase price and consequently they will have to pay the current price.

If that is the case MoD is responsible for this fiasco. Antony is the worst defence minister India ever had.

@On topic, it doesn't make sense to buy Rafale at $120 million. Better buy Mig35 or Gripens and invest more in Indigenous defence industries.

 

[gslv mk3]

I thought the program was older than 1990?? to replace the Ajeet??

The current aircraft seems quite full of material that is sanction able.. but regardless .. development process was dogged by constant haggling on what the aircraft is going to be. All the sanctions and research required could not make up for the delays due to simple mismanagement of the program. What has been achieved could have been achieved much earlier if not for plain mismanagement.

The full scale funding funding came only in 1990.

 

[nik22]

Let's hope (think) deal is scrapped. What should India do?
Now please. don't say like India needs it ..blah blah. If Dassault becomes unreasonable, nothing can be done. India is not like on brink of war and it is not a nuclear weapon either. We are a poor country, can't spend that much money. IAF keep saying they want best of world, are we financially in that position? BTW, French are True Businessmen or if I may be a bit rude, opportunistic/blackmailer. Price of Scorpene project has significantly jumped.

So, please can we discuss contingency plan? I think Browne said there is none but I am sure IAF is already thinking about it.

@Oscar @sancho @Abingdonboy

 

[h0mer]

Not at all, its not the research that dogged the jet. It was piss poor project management. That has little to do with Aviation or any industry.. but rather management science.

That comes with the territory when you have to build the infrastructure for a fighter jet as you're building the jet itself. Its like trying to build a bicycle with no tools whatsoever. There are going to be issues in building the tools themselves. Management problems occur in almost every fighter jet program.

Perhaps the fact that it was a government led initiative led to this.. by contrast.. the US aircraft industry has been a private ..and hence competitive venture since its inception.

Maybe, but i'd like to believe this was attributed to the fact that they didn't have the facilities set up to do all the detailed and complex work, ADA, NAL, etc.... Setting up these kinds of facilities for a private firm is damn near impossible (due to costs), so unless the private firm has orders for something, they're not going to invest in the infrastructure. (I mean why would they? There's no guarantee of a decent rate of return on your investment).

We on the other hand had a lot of private industries already building planes (commercially), so it was easy for Skunkworks/Boeing to start building fighter jets because most of the infrastructure/facilities/talent were already in place. You can't really compare the two.

 

[akand bharat]

Buy JF17 thunder block 2 D

Einstein We we are talking here about medium weight fighter

 

[SrNair]

That's a different issue. But my point was that the USN is not replacing super hornets any time soon. They will serve for a quarter century more, at least.

As to this point, you do realize that the US supplies arms to almost every country in the world, right? They would not be such a friggin big defence supplier if nobody trusted them. Our own primary threat from Pakistan are their US supplied F-16s.

You are right. there is no problem in delivery.Even they supply C-130J 6 months earlier to us.
But most of countries that buy US system is either their NATO or outside allies.
Do you want India also drag in to that side?
Countries that buy US system is suffered by their pressure on international issue.

 

[Archie]

So what Happens now?
IAF has 33 Sqds at Present
6 Mig 21 Bison Sqds are supposed to retire over the next 4 yrs, While During this period we will induct 72 Su30 MKI and 40 LCA MK1(ie 4 + 2 Sqds). Thats 112 Fighters replacing 120 Mig 21Bisons which is fairly acceptable since these fighters will be a quantum leap over the Mig21 while still maintaining the Sqd level of 33
That figure dosnot take into account the likely attrition we might have during that period
The problem will occur once the Mig27 Starts retiring in 2017. IAF has some 87 Mig27 in service across 5 Sqds, The Rafale was supposed to replace all 5 Mig 27 Sqds and 2 Jaguar sqds , that 135 Fighters being replaced by 126 fighters between 2017-24.

The only other fighter we will induct in the 2018-24 period will be the LCA MK2, with MOD having ordered 83 of them
So you are looking at a further Shortfall of 60-70 Fighters or 3 Sqds by 2020-22. That would mean, we would be left with a fleet of 580 Fighters against a Sanctioned strength of 780, and considering IAF discomfort in the fleet falling below the critical 650 Fighter Mark , they will only have 2 options
1. Keep the 30+ upgraded Mig27Upg and 37 Jaguar IS/IM flying for another 3-4 yrs, since half the Jaguar Fleet will remain in service till 2030 , I see Chances of Jags higher than Mig27
2. Order another 50 upgraded Su30MKI, since HAL is already manufacturing the MKI, it can Deliver the new batch between 2017-20, once the present backlog of 72 fighters is cleared. This will allow IAF to completely phase out the Mig 27 and retire all 27 un upgraded Jaguars. IAF can also increase the order for LCA MK2 from 83 to 120

this wud allow us to maintain 34 Sqds