10 mln Indians to lose jobs over economic meltdown

[IceCold]

Updated at: 2104 PST, Tuesday, January 06, 2009
NEW DELHI: At least 10 million Indians will lose their jobs by March as the economic slowdown in North America and Europe hits India's exports, a key exporters' association predicted Tuesday, according to a report.

The gloomy forecast comes despite two economic stimulus packages unveiled by the Indian government, including one on Friday, to boost growth in Asia's third-largest economy.

“There will be 10 million job losses by March," said A. Sakthivel, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), the Press Trust of India news agency reported.

"I can safely say that negative growth trends will continue in December and in the next couple of months... I hope we will end the fiscal year (to March 31) with exports of about 175-180 billion dollars" said Sakthivel, lower than New Delhi's target of 200 billion dollars for 2008-2009.

India's exports, which totalled almost 160 billion dollars last year, account for about 20 percent of gross domestic product and the sector employs 150 million people, according to FIEO.

10 mln Indians to lose jobs over economic meltdown - GEO.tv

 

[IceCold]

Instead of focusing on war and surgical strikes on Pakistan, India should worry more about whats coming at home.

 

[hasang20]

they wont they there are 2 Indias 1 very poor class ( no one looks over ) and upper class

 

[Jihad]

10 million, looks quite low in comparison to the total population of India.
But 10 million is HUGE.
They should focus more on their own domestic problems, hell, they can help these people to get a job and income with all the costs they spare and save up by not planning and doing any surgical strikes on Pakistan.

 

[Neo]

Like a said before in some other Pak-IMF related thread where Indians were enjoying themselves passing cheap comments over Pak economic malaise, that India's economic crisis has yet to come and it will be more severe than Pakistan's since India's growth is partly export related.

Economic slow down in North America and EU is going to claim a huge toll on Indian export industry and the article above is the proof of what I predicted.

 

[Zaheerkhan]

Takling as if some kind of warrent has already been signed. Yes, the downturn will have an effect..but losing 10million jobs is a joke... has been reported on Geo..but, nowhere else ..not even in the Indian Media..Companies here are still hiring.. 2.1 lakh jobs will be for grabs this quarter ..

Link:New Year brings 2.5L jobs-India Business-Business-The Times of India

 

[Imran Khan]

Indian Exporters May Cut 10 Million Jobs, Lobby Says


By Kartik Goyal

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Indian exporters may fire as many as 10 million workers, a lobby group said, putting pressure on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to cut taxes and protect the industry from the global recession.

The estimate by the Federation of Indian Export Organisations represent about 7 percent of those involved in overseas sales and about 20 times the Nov. 21 government estimate for job losses. The exporters don’t have orders beyond this month, A. Sakthivel, the lobby group’s president, told reporters today in New Delhi.

Singh’s Congress Party-led government faces an election contest by May as the economy grows at the slowest pace in six years and a record stock-market rout erodes savings. Singh’s top adviser Montek Singh Ahluwalia on Jan. 2 ruled out further aid for the economy after two stimulus packages in a month.

“While exports have significantly turned adverse, the exporters’ group is coercing the government to address their demands favorably in the current environment,” said Shubhada Rao, an economist with Yes Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. “The number is probably overstated.”

India’s commerce ministry, which in November estimated job losses at 500,000, said in response to the group’s estimate today it’s not clear how many jobs would be lost due to the slowdown.

“Job losses are going to be enormous due to the global slowdown,” said Rajiv Jain, official spokesman at the commerce ministry. “Right now, it’s difficult to say what would be the extent of job losses.”

Shrinking Trade

International trade will shrink in 2009 for the first time in more than 25 years as economic growth slows and commodity prices slide, the World Bank said on Dec. 9. World trade volumes will probably contract next year by 2.1 percent, hampered by exchange rate volatility and flagging import demand.

“There’s really nothing the country can do to avoid a further period of economic pain and job losses over the next few months,” said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist at HSBC Group Plc in Singapore.

Exports from India fell for a second month in November and industrial output contracted for the first time in 15 years in October. Output at factories and utilities also shrank in the past two months, according to a survey by ABN Amro Bank NV.

“The year 2009 is going to be the worst year in history” for exporters, Sakthivel said. India may export $175 billion of goods in the fiscal year ending March 31, missing the government’s target of $200 billion, he said.

‘Restore Health’

The government should provide low-interest loans and allow exporters to halt debt repayments, he said. Tax refunds on import duties and a freeze on income taxes will “restore health to the export sector,” Sakthivel said.

“Fresh orders are drying up due to lower demand and buyers are canceling earlier orders or rescheduling the shipments,” Sakthivel said. “If the present trend continues, there will be approximately 10 million job losses.”

Demand for made-in-Asia goods has slumped amid the deepening global slowdown. China’s exports in November fell 2.2 percent, the first drop in seven years. Singapore’s exports posted the biggest contraction in more than six years in the same month.

To spur growth, India’s government on Jan. 2 unveiled a second stimulus package to inject capital into banks and allow overseas investors to double purchases of debt. On the same day, the central bank cut interest rates for the fourth time in less than three months.

The measures are intended to steer Asia’s third-largest economy through the “worst quarter” of the global slump, Ahluwalia, deputy head of India’s planning commission, told Bloomberg News in an interview on Jan. 2.

Slowing Growth

Growth in the $1.2 trillion economy has slowed for two straight quarters, and the government is forecasting 7 percent growth this fiscal year, the slowest since 2003. Economic growth may slow to 6.2 percent in the year starting April 1, HSBC said.

“The slowdown phase will continue for some months,” said N. R. Bhanumurthy, an economist at the Institute for Economic Growth in New Delhi. “Recent monetary and fiscal policies might ensure that industry does not enter a recessionary phase.”

Weakening exports and domestic demand have forced companies including Tata Motors Ltd., India’s biggest truck maker, and Hyundai Motor Co. to reduce output and workers in India.

Hyundai’s unit, India’s biggest car exporter, will miss its output target this year, the company said on Dec. 29. The company, which is cutting temporary staff in India, expects overseas orders to fall in the first quarter from a year earlier.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kartik Goyal in New Delhi at kgoyal@bloomberg.n

[SIZE="4"][COLOR="Blue"]not geo ite uncle bloomberg[/COLOR][/SIZE]
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=akNaKJtR7tE0&refer=india

 

[Imran Khan]

Large-scale job cuts in India unlikely: Cabinet Secretary


NEW DELHI: India is unlikely to see any large-scale job cuts as it has a strong domestic market to consume what it produces, Cabinet Secretary K M
Chandrasekhar said.

"Most of our productions are based on domestic demand. As long as domestic demand remains reasonably strong, I don't think there would be any large-scale job cuts in India," he said.

Like many other countries, India does not import in a big way, he said, adding that many steps have been taken by the government and Reserve Bank of India to ease the crisis.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh too had earlier this month asked the industry not to cut jobs as a knee-jerk reaction to the global financial crisis.

"Enough liquidity has been pumped into the market. I think, we should be able to contain the situation more or less," Chandrasekhar said.

When asked whether the government will intervene if any companies resort to large-scale job cuts, Chandrasekhar said, "In the case of Jet Airways, the company was told to take back all the sacked employees and they responded positively".

Last month, Jet Airways hit by the crisis, announced the termination of services of around 1,900 employees mostly cabin crew. However, it reinstated all the sacked staff following government intervention.

The economic crisis has prompted many companies in other countries to lay off their employees, while fears still looms large over Indian firms.


and its your minister not geo tv

 

[Imran Khan]

India's exports fall 12%, job losses feared
Business Desk








In a disconcerting development that has raised fears of job losses in export-oriented manufacturing units, India’s exports fell by 12.1 per cent in October.

Reflecting the impact of the global slowdown, exports dropped to US$12.82 billion in October from $14.58 billion a year ago, official data said. However, imports grew by 10.6 per cent to $23.36 billion in October compared with $21.12 billion in the same month last year.

Experts said the depressing development has raised fears of huge job losses in several export-oriented industries such as textiles, handicrafts and gems and jewellery.


Trade deficit ballooned by more than 61 per cent to $10.53 billion.

Imports in September were up by a huge 43.3 per cent on account of government easing restrictions and the impact of the crude oil prices which have since dropped sharply.

The negative trend in October took its toll on the April-October 2008-09 export performance, which grew by 23.7 per cent at $107.79 billion--well below the 30 per cent growth registered in the first half of the year.

Exporters doubt the possibility of achieving the target of $200 billion in the current fiscal given the slowdown in the US and Europe.

“The target would not be achieved. The grim situation would continue, especially in the traditional sectors such as handicraft, textile, carpets, marine products, leather and agro and agro products,” director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, Ajay Sahai said.

Industry officials have estimated that 500,000 handicrafts workers would lose their jobs, while the commerce secretary, GK Pillai said on November 21 that the textile ministry estimates suggest a loss of another 500,000 jobs in the sector in the next five months.

Total imports during April-October 2008-09 were $180.78 billion against $132.78 billion in the corresponding period last year.

Oil imports during October were billed at $7.96 billion, 22 per cent more than $6.52 billion in the corresponding month last year.

Non-oil imports during the month were up only by 5.5 per cent at $15.4 billion from $14.6 billion a year ago.

One of the reasons for the fall in exports was lack of credit for exporters, Crisil's principal economist, DK Joshi said, adding that steps taken by the central bank would improve the credit situation.

He said the exports would not remain in negative territory for long. However, “the demand (from the US and Europe) would continue to be sluggish due to the slowdown”.

Last week, the central bank extended the time period for concessional credit from 90 days to 180 days.

“If the sentiments in the European market continue to remain the same, the apparel exporters will bear the brunt as people stop spending on clothes,” Apparel Export Promotion Council chairman, Rakesh Vaid said.

The AEPC had said the industry was facing huge losses on account of drying up of orders from the US and European markets in the backdrop of financial crisis. Garment exports may drop to $8.78 billion in this fiscal, 24 per cent below the target set for 2008-09.

In 2007-08, India had exported $9.69 billion worth of apparel.

In the wake of job losses being reported from different segments of the economy, such as textiles and handicrafts, the commerce ministry has suggested a package, which has to be cleared by a committee chaired by the prime minister.

 

[Zaheerkhan]

Although there is no denying the fact that India wil see the impact of a global meltdown, there are different factors when it comes to India. India is largely self-sufficient, the major thing India needs to import is Oil. Now, oil rates are not a problem anymore. Now, about the effects of the global meltdown are concerned, people who benefit employment indirectly will be the ones who will be effected. The companies will cut down on perks and people will see salary cuts. But, in the IT industry here, the hiring scenario is normal, there seems to be no effect of the meltdown, the only change is that people have seen 10% decrease in salaries.

Now coming to exports, the exports have seen a 12% decline, the main exports out of India are Leather, Chemicals, Engineering goods, textiles,gems and Jewelery and Petroleum products. These are only the major things that drive Indian exports. These things give India a revenue of about Rs.340684 crores.
I have only mentioned the major ones...there are 30-odd exports that I have not mentioned.
So, 12% decline is'nt going to change numbers greatly.

So, how is the slowdown going to effect the Indian industry...

There are many major Industries in India,,...
Software Industry,
Investment Industry,
Banking Industry,
Insurance Industry,
Automobile Industry,
Cement Industry,
Metal Industry,
Pharmaceutical Industry,
Sugar Industry,
Fertilizer Industry,
Petrochemical Industry,
Paper and Pulp Industry.

Software Industry will see effects, but, the effects will be limited only to salary cuts. That is because software companies in India have diversified their assets. Software majors like Satyam are investing heavily in real estate. Tey have bagged a contract to build a metro rail system in Hyderabad. Another software giant Wipro has investments even in electronic goods manufacturing and heavy electrical equipment.
Investment Industry is still booming, FDI flowing into India is among the top three in the world.
Banking in India is very strong. Indian Banks are completely insulated from the western meltdown.
Regarding Cement and metal industry, India had banned export of cement because of the demand in Indian markets. India imports cement from even Pakistan. So, this cement and metals industry, even with the lack in global demand, will not see any effect. because the demand in the local market itself is very high.
The Autombile Industry will be one one most effected, because India is a automobile manufacturing hub. Cars from India are exported to all parts of the world. So far even this Industry has'ent seen any job cuts or lay-offs. But, I wont be surprised, there are lay-oof in this department.

Hence, although there will be small effects of the global economic meltdown, India and it's institutions are fully capable to withstand the meltdown.

 

[Cheetah786]

Takling as if some kind of warrent has already been signed. Yes, the downturn will have an effect..but losing 10million jobs is a joke... has been reported on Geo..but, nowhere else ..not even in the Indian Media..Companies here are still hiring.. 2.1 lakh jobs will be for grabs this quarter ..

Link:New Year brings 2.5L jobs-India Business-Business-The Times of India

I got to get my hands on what this guy smoke.

 

[ahmeddsid]

I got to get my hands on what this guy smoke.

Pakistanis should worry about repaying the IMF rather than Post bleak forecasts on the Indian Economy! lol

When India takes a Loan from IMF again, you guys can cheer all you want, right now, troubles at home!

 

[nitesh]

I feel exports wants more concessions so they are throwing the numbers that they "may cut". Ha ha ha good move to get concessions. Also helps keeping workers in check by showing them the economic condition so they don't ask for more salary hike

Will see when they actually "cut" the jobs

 

[ahmeddsid]

its all a part and parcel of business!

 

[Cheetah786]

Software Industry will see effects, but, the effects will be limited only to salary cuts. That is because software companies in India have diversified their assets. Software majors like Satyam are investing heavily in real estate. Tey have bagged a contract to build a metro rail system in Hyderabad. Another software giant Wipro has investments even in electronic goods manufacturing and heavy electrical equipment.

Hey genious simplest way to explain this would be like this put left foot in one boat put right in another now try to go some where watch what happens.these companies moving away from what they do to some thing totally new dont sound like its a good sign as they have lost confidence in there main buisness but what do i no.you are da mang dat can make things happen few days ago u were saying what melt down now its a different tone i wonder what you will be saying after the effect of whacky tobacy runs out.

Ford sells jaguar tata buys jaguar ford not needing bail out tata asking english government for help why i thought they knew what they were doing uh oh


A transport strike is beginning to bite in India with operators pulling millions of trucks off the roads to demand a lowering of diesel prices.

The operators are also protesting against "steep" road tolls imposed by the government.

Talks with the government broke down over the weekend and up to six million trucks went off the roads as the indefinite strike began on Monday.

A prolonged strike could push up costs of essential goods, analysts say.

Inflation

Truck operators say they have been hit hard by the rising oil prices and the economic slowdown.(what what slow down you morans zaheer khan the economist said no such thing in india)

"We are on an indefinite strike until our demands are met," news agency Reuters quoted Charan Singh Lohara, president of the All India Motor Transport Congress (AIMTC), as saying.

The organisation says it represents six million trucks in India.

"The government is giving concessions and bailout packages to so many industries.(damm these guys should have zaheer khans adress so they can see what he sees) Why not us when we are struggling to repay loans with high fuel prices, high prices of tyres and numerous taxes?" he asked.

It is too early for the strike to have had any firm impact, but if the protest continues, prices of essential goods are likely to rise, correspondents say.

Indian consumers are yet to recover from last year's high inflation figures which reached double digits a few months ago before coming down in the past few weeks.

BBC NEWS | South Asia | India truck strike over fuel cost