PakSword
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Based on the available evidence, for all practical purposes, the LAC in has now become a CeaseFireLine2 with China...
CeaseFireLine1 with Pakistan is hot. The Indians have been killing PakCivlians and PakChildren to vent out their frustrations... this will continue unless PakState makes the CoreDecision.
For now the IndianState has informed the world through 'sources' telling IndianMedia that the IndianTroops will now carry weapons and have been given 'free hand' to use them if/when they feel the need for it.
The IndianAirforce has shown the IndianMedia how it is flying in Ladakh ... that too was part of messaging campaign... both for domestic consumption but also to the world and China.
With expected failure of talks between the Commanders of two armies... the IndianMedia 'broke' the news of SAM deployment. Once again messaging for China.
Indian ArmyChief will be visiting the forward positions tomorrow as did IAF chief a couple days back.. once again messaging of 'resolve'.
All these things contradict Modi's statement that No Intrusions or loss of IndianOccupied Ladakh to the tune of 60+Sq.Km to the PLA.
The Russians are behind the scenes active to broker PeaceDeal between China and India... and of course, their pockets have been lined up with emergency orders of aircrafts... and the news of hurrying up the delivery of S400 puts to rest the rumours, for now at least, of THAAD instead of S400... and that also means American fighter aircrafts in numbers.
In parallel ModiRegime has accelerated integeration into IndoPacific or Quad and without doubt has made its intentions clear of joining the Alliance Against China in the Sino-US ColdWar!
Lockdown has deeply effected the already slowing IndianEconomy and funnily enough Indian has also borrowed from AIIB.
All of the about raise a few questions:
Is there a push back from the IndianArmedForces to Modi's Keep Quiet and Carry On policy towards Ladakh loss?
Has the ModiRegime misread the Chinese courtship of India to keep it in AsianOrder?
Has there been an understanding of support to India from the US led CombinedWest that gave impetus to Modi's going back on WuhanSpirit understanding with Xi?
The Chinese are consistent in their demand for the ModiRegime to stick to WuhanSpirit ...
However, it is also more than clear that Modi double-crossed Xi just to buy more time for Quading Agreements... as we have seen Autralia doing with India.
When this 'Stand-off' started we all were asking ourselves what do the Chinese want... and some of us came to the conclusion that the Chinese were trying to wean India away from ChinaContainmentParty...
We can now safely say that the India has joined fully the ChinaContaimentCamp and its growing posturing is reflection of that.
For now India will stick to building up its forces and deploying assets...giving the Russian enough time to mediate a deal between the two giants.
However, the likelihood of India leaving the IndoPacificBlock is close to zero... This can only put stress on the CeaseFireLine2 with China.
For both China and India now to back-off and go back to original position is Geopolitically impossible... as none can be seen as loser...
The assumption that the Chinese will go back is a wrong one..and dangerous one at that.
The PLA in GalwanValley is following a well thoughtout plan as can be seen from the construction workers and heavy equipment there... GalwanRiver is being diverted.. even IndianMedia has reported it.
The PLA already has the entire CeaseFireLine2 well covered and supported...but now the Indians have to move and keep troops and assets there. This is going to bring both financial and diplo-political costs with it.
Despite the brovados the Indians are economically not in a position to BycottChina... $500Bln in Forex means nothing more than feel-good-claims ... the further contraciton in IndianEconomy is going to cause more pain.. the CheapOil has come as breathing-space for the Indians...but DebtMonetising will continue..
ModiRegime has made many strategic mistakes both at home and abroad.... and mistakes extract their price!
ModiMedia can keep the highly conditioned/hypernationalistic population 'energised'...as we have seen about the 'necks broken' 'faces smashed' '43 PLA troops killed' or Modi's claim of 'martay martay maray hain' ... all are good tactics but for how long?
China has played down the entire incedence and the Chinese FM has demanded that India investigate about the 'provocation' by the IndianArmy.... quite telling this!
Now the ModiRegime is backtracking on its earlier statements of No Incursions ... as the Indian opposition tries to cash in on SurrenderModi!
War is not going to happen.. in the classical sense... for two simple reasons:
1- A War will distract China from the Geostrategic entanglement with the US... Taiwan could cause headaches and SouthChinaSea could be used as some minor flashpoint..
2- India cann't afford a full scale War with China. Period!
A SuperPower earns its Own Laurels.. nobody makes another state a superpower... those who wish to have cannon fodder can always pump egos..and their media can print all kinds of lofty stories...
Just a look at the map tells us that India is, infact, being Contained not only within Two CeaseFireLines of its own making but also its economic and industrial disparity with its stated ambitions.
The distance between Claims and Reality is....blood, sweat and tears...
One sincerely hopes that both India and China find a lasting solution and the Region can come out of DarkAges and Dehumanising Poverty...
Nationalism can win votes but never fills the belly!!!
Mangus
@Signalian @jaibi @Chinese-Dragon @siegecrossbow @PakSword @PanzerKiel @RescueRanger @Shotgunner51 @Slav Defence @WebMaster @Ace of Spades @masterchief_mirza @Blacklight @StormBreaker
Sir, in case a war breaks out between China and India, what do you think which countries from the Asia pacific block will send forces to join hands with India? If they don't, will the alliance be limited to defence sales? What will be the role of Russia, will she join China or India, or will remain neutral?
Considering that China and India fight alone (with pressure being kept high on our borders by PA), how many days do you think China may take to capture entire Ladakh and other areas towards east and call for ceasefire?
And if Pakistan joins too and pushes her army into IOJK, how many days will it take for us to capture Sri Nagar?
