Time passes to bring us closer to the Events... it always does!
Time for some refleciton, some questioning....
Given the Indian doubling down on the PLA 'deaths' and now the
Indian DM saying that
India has also released the Chinese PoWs ....
Breaking of the '
news' in the
IndiaMedia that the local commanders have now
carte balnch for using weapons as they see fit ... meeting of Indian DM with CDS and other three IndianChiefs....
IAF showing on TeeVee its Apaches and Migs and other stuff..
IAF chief visiting the theatre...
IndianArmy showing its build up... with tanks being moved by trains to the 'front'....
The apparent
contradictions between
Modi's 'No Intrusion' and
DM/FM statements rejecting the Chiense Sovereignty over GolwanValley....
Despite China releasing 10 Indians and
TheHindu publishing it... and other
IndianMedia outlets saying that the
60+Sq.Km is
liberated from the
IndianOccupation by the PLA ... and the
Fingers on the lake are becoming lesser and lesser Indian and more and more Chinese....the
IndianPolitica/Military/Social Narrative is heading in the opposite direction...
The satellite pictures showing the Chinese blocking GalwanRiver ... and the PLA logisitical/military vehicles lined up
en mass...
Why? Even Indian media is reporting it and showing it to the Indian public...non-stop!
For now we are seeing a slow build up for '
Revenge' chorus from the
IndianSocialMedia and
retired Indian professionals...
In the above backdrop the question arrises:
Is Modi planning to Avenge 1962 Humiliation?
That is to say that the Indians engage in a 'limited war' with China ...
gain some territory and then declare unilateral ceasefire and move back to their position?
The International standing of the
SuperPowerIndia has taken a strong nose dive given over 20 Indians were killed and scores wounded...and then China released 10 Indians including 3 officers...
All reported in International Media!
Nepal standing up for itself... is even more
damning for the careful
ImageCreation of India as a
GlobalPower or SuperPower....
The Indian are shelling indiscriminately on
CeaseFireLine and have killed
PakCivilians...including
children... and there is
Spike in IndianTerrorism in Pakistan...
Karachi is being under attack by the
IndianAssets...
Prestige is very hard to gain and easy to loose....
The current Stand-off has created great many question marks on the
IndianMilitaryAbilities vs IndianClaims...
Balakot was supposed to be the new paradigm/doctorine ... but
the IceMan said:
Wait for OurSurprise... and
after breakfast Paks Surprised the World!!!
For now the Indians are building up a narrative of Legendary Bravery of their troops who were ambushed, outnumbered and fought valiantly...
bared handed killing the ChineseDeathSquads....
killing twice as many Chinese...
Also, now Indians are pushing the narrative of capturing the PLA troops and then releasing them... numbers will obviously be larger than the 10 Indians that China released.
The inherent contradictions might bother outsiders but to the
IndianNarrative these are not contradictions but
BuildingBlocks of Context for future
IndianStrategy...
both domestic and vis-a-vis China and Pakistan!!!
If India just moves troops around and flies jets...and let the TeeVee crews take shots for '
BreakingNews'
...this will not restore the HardPower weight that India has been projecting for past decade or so...
Why put all three forces on highest alert?
There is NO one attacking or even a rhetoric of any action...so why such high alterness?
In absence of the Chinese Rhetoric of attack/action... such actions make the
IndianState look weaker and confused...
creating nervousness in both troops and anticipation in hypernationalist population...
Because, if nothing happens... what have all these 'actions' achieved.... ?
Yes, we can expect the
IndianNarrative of
StaringDownChina by showing
IndianReslove type of TeeVee shows and endless articles or wiki editing... or AsocialMedia Celebrations...Victory, Victory....
However, other states and real powers see things as they are....
The more ModiRegime shows muscles and more China shows studied indifference, disdain...
the pressure on India will build to prove its worth...
For now
4Fingers are now
Chinese...and
GalwanValley and
GalwanRiver is under firm Chinese control...
It is safe to calculate that the Indians who went there were on Mission to dislodge the Chinese troops and the PLA knew in advance what the Indians were planning...
Neither India is going to releas the pictures of Indians wounded or dead ... nor will China...
The side which won must have made pictures and videos ...as we have seen before when the Indians released the video of a single Chinese soldier being lynched... the PLA leaked to their own socialmedia picutre 5 or so Indians wounded being taken care of by the PLA...
Fork in the road for Indians... this Stand-off is!
If Indians decide to go brave against the Chinese and launch a 'limited war' ... it is a huge gamble... and
in rare secnario, if India pervails...then the
GlobalStanding of India will reach Outerspace... and
dent the Credebility of the PLA and massive impact on PRC... think Taiwan!!!
But if India gets thrashed heavily then the consequence will not be just shame but strategic and longterm.
And if India sits this one out ...with
soundbites, Whatsapp Uni, AsocialMedia Victories and
publishing articles from fake foreign websites... then no amount Rafale purchasing is going to restore its credebility or prestige...with
net effect of loosing hold on Bhutan, BD, SL and Maladives... Nepal already semi free from Indian influence/control.
Regardless, what happens in Ladakh/LAC will have deep effect on the Future Power Architecture of Asia ... either it will be EurasianArchitecture or IndoPacificArchitecture...
On Modi's broad shoulders rest the Existential Decision... his Huggomacy doesn't count!!!
Mangus
@PanzerKiel @StormBreaker @masterchief_mirza @Ace of Spades @Verve @Chinese-Dragon @Shotgunner51 @PakSword @RescueRanger @ThePatriotReport @jaibi @Signalian @siegecrossbow