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In time, since The Egyptian Rafale is the same as the French one, the first ones came strait from the French inventory.. so nothing will be missing..Thanks, buddy. I saw those that day those two EM's arrived. They're a lot bigger in person it seems.
I guess you can put a pair of 500's on a dual-rack pylon or 3 125's on a triple rack.
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It would be nice to eventually see more pics of the Egyptian Rafales carrying the Damocles pod and we'd be ever so lucky to see one carrying either the SCALP EG or the MBDA Apache.
In time, since The Egyptian Rafale is the same as the French one, the first ones came strait from the French inventory.. so nothing will be missing..
I can see this happening in the next 10 years..and I won't forget the SU-XX.. Rafale is expensive, but Egypt will become an NG exporter in 2019-2020 not very far ahead.. so give it some 5 years to get enough money and we'll see 72+ fully equipped Rafale in EAF.. Mig-35 might get beyond 100 fighters quite easily as you have stated..While some of the F-16s might take a tertiary role, but the bulk of it is quite modern and is still subject to viper or Blk52 upgrades..these will certainly accompany the Rafale or rather be accompanied by the latter in strike missions among other assignments.. While the Mig-35s and the mighty SU-XX will provide sovereign air interdiction and air superiority among other secondary missions..Once the Meteor is available and Egypt can get it (at least 300 units preferably 500 but they are $2+ million a piece!). This should be the top tier and most potent fighter in the EAF, followed by the MiG-35 (provided they get at least the R-27ER and/or R-77-1 in large numbers to equip an eventual fleet of 100+) and then the F-16. Funny how after all these years of the F-16 being the legacy fighter for the EAF, it'll be demoted to 3rd place once the others are fully active. But they DEFINITELY need at least 110 or more MiG-35's (total) and AT LEAST 80 or more Rafales (total) to have a very potent AF, and the MiG's beyond this batch of 50 HAVE TO come with the AESA Zhuk-AE.
That will give them 430 fighters and leave a slot open for another 100 of whatever...to make it a total of 530 +/- and that should do it.
Egypt can't economically support such a fleet, if it actually wants its pilots to have flying hours on them.Once the Meteor is available and Egypt can get it (at least 300 units preferably 500 but they are $2+ million a piece!). This should be the top tier and most potent fighter in the EAF, followed by the MiG-35 (provided they get at least the R-27ER and/or R-77-1 in large numbers to equip an eventual fleet of 100+) and then the F-16. Funny how after all these years of the F-16 being the legacy fighter for the EAF, it'll be demoted to 3rd place once the others are fully active. But they DEFINITELY need at least 110 or more MiG-35's (total) and AT LEAST 80 or more Rafales (total) to have a very potent AF, and the MiG's beyond this batch of 50 HAVE TO come with the AESA Zhuk-AE.
That will give them 430 fighters and leave a slot open for another 100 of whatever...to make it a total of 530 +/- and that should do it.
Egypt can't economically support such a fleet, if it actually wants its pilots to have flying hours on them.
Not really 70 million but 200-250 million,see the Qatari,Indian deals.Valid point. But that's what everyone was saying when they started loading up on a pair of Mistrals, 4 Gowinds, 4 FREMMs, 4 Type 209 German subs, S-300VM batteries (3 divisions) 24 Rafales, 50 MiG-35's 46 Ka-52's with (another 36K's most certainly will be ordered for the LHD's) amongts several other weapons systems all within the past 4 years after a coup then elections in the midst of difficult times. They've also already bought the simulators (2) for the Rafale and not sure how many for the MiGs so the next order won't include all that was in the first for and should only be fly-away cost.
Every one (outside of some Arabs) was thinking "wuuuut how can they afford all these incredible weapons the GCC Arabs must be paying for all this rah rah rah!!!" Turned out not to be the case. Egypt has a surplus for a military budget that it hasn't spent in over 2 decades and has only partially taped into it for the procurement of all this weaponry. The gas fields haven't started producing and earning in earnest yet, so they can allocate a small portion out of that for funds. Foreign reserves are climbing and continuing so that scary part is getting better. Inflation is still high but economic progress is at the horizon.
Basically they need:
- 56 more Rafales (and the EM is a bit less expensive than the DM) to reach the 80-count. They are roughly $70 mill per? $15K per flight hour?
- 60+/- a few MiG-35's (depending on how many are actually on order, some sources say 46 other say 52 so we'll assume they have ordered 50 for now. 60 more @ $45 mill per. $8K per flight hour?
56 x $70 million = $4B
60 x $45 million = $2.7B
$7 billion I think is easily affordable for the Egyptian military. Spread the contract out, incentives for previous purchases etc. That will help with weapons and additional needs.
As far as pilots are concerned, the MiG-21 and F-7's would be incrementally retired with the new birds coming in so having the pilots is certainly not the issue, and the AF academy has to turn away applicants every year because so many want to join. Availability is not an issue but yeah, training old pilots to fly a new platform would be an additional cost and the cost per hour of flight will certainly be higher, I agree. They'll just have to do it. The EAF's F-16 pilots get A LOT of flying hours since there's been a heavy strain on that aircraft, being the most capable in the old fleet and issued most missions from combat to escort to patrol to training which includes a program similar to the US Red Flag Aggressors. They should be able to do it right for at least a fleet of 430 AC.
For the additional 100 birds that they should get to jump the count to 530 and if they can't get @The SC 's dream machine for the EAF in the Su-35, then maybe they should opt for the JS-39C Gripen for $50 mill a piece and it will be compatible with the other 3 western jets, but ONLY if it comes with the Meteor or other non-American BVR missiles. American or even Swedish weapons will be heavily restricted and the EAF has suffered with those castrating conditions for too long and is simply tiered of them because they're silly. Imagine if a country like Egypt and the EAF had it's Gripen weapons sales controlled by someone like @A.P. Richelieu ?We'd be lucky to get enough rounds for the gun. Empty pylons. J/K.
Gripen is also a lowly $7800 per flight hour, very manageable.
I still think they'll be going all out Russian, but since they committed to the Rafales, it's silly to only have 24-36 jets. That's way too low a number of that aircraft and that's why I think they need at least 80 total. Same with the MiG-35 which is very affordable for a very potent fighter.
Not really 70 million but 200-250 million,see the Qatari,Indian deals.
Much more...you need spares,weapons. ...it's the same for every such sale over the world.Those are initial contract deals that include all the stuff that Egypt has already paid for in it's first deal and wouldn't need to the 2nd time around.
BTW, the Egyptian Rafale deal was the 1st export deal for Dassault Rafale and opened the door for them right after that, including the Indian & Qatari ones. Same with the MiG-35. There should be a little bit of bargaining leverage with that. Anything helps. I don't see why they wouldn't be available for Egypt @ fly-away cost, maybe a bit more.
Much more...you need spares,weapons. ...it's the same for every such sale over the world.
Stopping at 36 Rafale will be repeating the mistake of the Mirage 2000!Valid point. But that's what everyone was saying when they started loading up on a pair of Mistrals, 4 Gowinds, 4 FREMMs, 4 Type 209 German subs, S-300VM batteries (3 divisions) 24 Rafales, 50 MiG-35's 46 Ka-52's with (another 36K's most certainly will be ordered for the LHD's) amongts several other weapons systems all within the past 4 years after a coup then elections in the midst of difficult times. They've also already bought the simulators (2) for the Rafale and not sure how many for the MiGs so the next orders of the same fighters won't necessarily include all that was in the first ones and should only be fly-away cost.
Every one (outside of some Arabs) was thinking "wuuuut how can they afford all these incredible weapons the GCC Arabs must be paying for all this rah rah rah!!!" Turned out not to be the case. Egypt has had a surplus for a military budget that it hasn't spent in over 2 decades and has only partially tapped into it for the procurement of all this weaponry. The gas fields haven't started producing and earning in earnest yet, so they can allocate a small portion out of that for funds. Foreign reserves are climbing and continuing so that scary part is getting better. Inflation is still high but economic progress is at the horizon.
Basically they need:
- 56 more Rafales (and the EM is a bit less expensive than the DM) to reach the 80-count. They are roughly $70 mill per? $15K per flight hour?
- 60+/- a few MiG-35's (depending on how many are actually on order, some sources say 46 other say 52 so we'll assume they have ordered 50 for now. 60 more @ $45 mill per. $8K per flight hour?
56 x $70 million = $4B
60 x $45 million = $2.7B
$7 billion I think is easily affordable for the Egyptian military. Spread the contract out, incentives for previous purchases etc. That will help with weapons and additional needs.
As far as pilots are concerned, the MiG-21 and F-7's would be incrementally retired with the new birds coming in so having the pilots is certainly not the issue, and the AF academy has to turn away applicants every year because so many want to join. Availability is not an issue but yeah, training old pilots to fly a new platform would be an additional cost and the cost per hour of flight will certainly be higher, I agree. They'll just have to do it. The EAF's F-16 pilots get A LOT of flying hours since there's been a heavy strain on that aircraft, being the most capable in the old fleet and issued most missions from combat to escort to patrol to training which includes a program similar to the US Red Flag Aggressors. They should be able to do it right for at least a fleet of 430 AC.
For the additional 100 birds that they should get to jump the count to 530 and if they can't get @The SC 's dream machine for the EAF in the Su-35, then maybe they should opt for the JS-39C Gripen for $50 mill a piece and it will be compatible with the other 3 western jets, but ONLY if it comes with the Meteor or other non-American BVR missiles. American or even Swedish weapons will be heavily restricted and the EAF has suffered with those castrating conditions for too long and is simply tiered of them because they're silly. Imagine if a country like Egypt and the EAF had it's Gripen weapons sales controlled by someone like @A.P. Richelieu ?We'd be lucky to get enough rounds for the gun. Empty pylons. J/K.
Gripen is also a lowly $7800 per flight hour, very manageable.
I still think they'll be going all out Russian, but since they committed to the Rafales, it's silly to only have 24-36 jets. That's way too low a number of that aircraft and that's why I think they need at least 80 total. Same with the MiG-35 which is very affordable for a very potent fighter.
Stopping at 36 Rafale will be repeating the mistake of the Mirage 2000!
I just don't see any Gripen coming in,
but rather the JF-17 Block3 with local production dual seat included.. it has link-16 too and a very good (independent) suite of weapons..and is software-wise open to any weapon integration..This is the best to replace the old platforms that are set to leave service..and it comes with some important ToT too..Negotiations were going on for a long time with China/Pakistan..
Your opinion is much appreciated..I just think that price wise and the important option of having own fighter plays an important role in the EAF decisions..I agree that getting more Rafale and Mig-35s is a very good option.. but still it won't give Egypt the much needed ToT it needs in weapons and fighter manufacturing technicals and technologies..Exactly my point. If they even get to 36. They had the option for 20 more Mirage 2K and never did it. That was because Sadat & Mubarak were having a tough time convincing the Americans to sell them the F-16. The Americans didn't and offered the F-5. So the Mirage 5 and especially the 2K was his way of putting pressure on the US for the Falcons and not the F-5.
And what is having an option for 12 or 20 more anyway? It's a silly concept. Does that mean you're limited to buying the option number and that's it you can't purchase any more? Goofy.
I was thinking it would be a very decent option if they insist on a 4th type, which I wouldn't want to see TBH until they're ready to explore 5th gen options whenever that might be and there's no rush for that either. The only problem with it is there are too many American parts to it and the weapons will probably be restricted, unless they can get the Meteor. Then it's actually a good alternative.
I don't see the JF-17 coming TBH, even with ToT. They already share the K-8 program and the JF-17 doesn't really add to current needs. It only opens the door to another variety of weapons which is what they don't want or need, especially BVR missiles. They must stick to what they currently have. Either more MiG-35 or something compatible but preferably more Rafales and just concentrate on increasing the numbers as much as possible. That's my opinion anyway, doesn't mean much.![]()