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Actually, Egypt is a terrible ally (New York Times)

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When Vice President Mike Pence visits Egypt on Wednesday, he will follow in the footsteps of countless American officials who have stopped in Cairo to laud the “strategic partnership” between the United States and Egypt.

This has become a vacuous and badly outdated talking point — the kind we both drafted during our years in the government. Mr. Pence shouldn’t pay lip service to it.

American and Egyptian interests are increasingly divergent and the relationship now has far less common purpose than it once did. Mr. Pence should make clear to Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Egypt’s president, that the two countries need a reset, beginning with a major reduction in American military assistance.

In addition to saving American taxpayers’ money, this would send an important message to other recipients of American aid that our support is not unconditional. It would also help to rein in an arrangement that has distorted Egyptian-American relations.

Any doubts that Egypt has ceased to be a strategic partner to the United States were eliminated with the recent preliminary Egyptian-Russian agreement to grant reciprocal access to each other’s air bases. But this is just the most recent example of profoundly unfriendly behavior by a purported friend. In Libya, Egypt has consistently provided military support to Gen. Khalifa Hifter, whose Libyan National Army has clashed with forces loyal to the internationally recognized and United States-backed government. At the United Nations Security Council, Egypt has made common cause with Russia to oppose the United States on issues from Syria to Israel/Palestine. And this year, revelations emerged of Egyptian military and economic cooperation with North Korea.
Even where American and Egyptian goals remain aligned, Egypt struggles to promote our mutual objectives effectively. Washington has not grasped a new reality: Because of its internal decay, Egypt is no longer a regional heavyweight that can anchor America’s Middle East policy.

The Sisi government has contributed shockingly little to the campaign against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. Cairo consistently has ignored American offers to train Egyptian forces in the counterinsurgency doctrine and tactics that could help defeat the insurgency in Sinai. The importance of American access to Egyptian airspace has declined; and American privileges at the Suez Canal are drastically exaggerated. Contrary to prevailing wisdom, the U.S. Navy does not receive head-of-the-line privileges, whereby our ships can jump ahead of other vessels.

There was a time when both countries derived important mutual benefits, including reliable Egyptian support for the United States’ interests in the Middle East. But over the past decade, the United States has poured more than $13 billion in security assistance into Egypt with little to show for it except more jobs for a defense industry exporting materiél that is ill-suited to Egypt’s defense needs and that allow the Egyptian military to sustain a patronage system that distorts the economy and fuels corruption.

For too long, the United States has allowed the Egyptian government to treat security assistance as an entitlement owed for making peace with Israel. The United States has not held Egypt accountable for how this money is spent and whether it serves broader American objectives in the region, giving Egypt a free ride on American generosity. The Obama administration took initial steps to make military assistance less generous and limit the weapons systems Egypt could buy with American funds. The Trump administration has withheld or reprogrammed more than $200 million in military assistance.

This is a start. More needs to be done.

In light of Egypt’s declining strategic importance and its problematic behavior, Washington should sharply reduce its annual military assistance by $500 million to $800 million to align our resources with our priorities. A cut in Egypt’s aid would free up badly needed funds. And a move to start reducing security aid to Egypt to a level that is more in line with the actual value the United States derives from the relationship would be broadly popular in Congress, which has grown frustrated with Cairo.

The risks are limited. Egypt is unlikely to change its behavior in response to less aid. It won’t, for example, end its peace treaty with Israel or cease its counterterrorism cooperation with the United States. It will, of course, continue to fight local jihadists.

Advocates of a closer relationship with Egypt argue that cutting aid would make Cairo less willing to accept American military training, but there is scant evidence that years of generous support have fostered a desire in Egypt for additional training opportunities in critical areas like counter-insurgency. Rather, disabusing Cairo of the notion that assistance is an entitlement might help to restore some leverage to extract concessions from Cairo. And, while instability in Egypt is a legitimate concern, we are deluding ourselves to think that American assistance is the difference between order and chaos.

Instead of acknowledging that Egypt’s importance has diminished, President Trump has doubled down on the relationship, promising to be a “loyal friend” to Egypt and lavishing Mr. Sisi with praise. The White House has gone silent on the Egyptian government’s abhorrent human rights abuses, which fuel radicalization, increasing the global threat from terrorism. In so closely tying the United States to the Sisi government and its repressive practices, the administration is all but ensuring that millions of marginalized Egyptian youth will view the United States with hostility.

America is getting a bad deal in Egypt. That’s ironic for a president who prides himself as a negotiator. Mr. Pence’s visit is an opportunity to turn a new page with Egypt, and make the United States’ commitment to the country commensurate with what Washington receives in return. If the Trump administration does this, it will take a small but important step toward restoring America’s tarnished credibility and reputation in the region.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/opinion/united-states-egypt-pence.html
 
My Comment/ this is a good start as US must know that Egypt is a Main player in the Middle East and cannot be compromised either in peace or war decisions in the region.
 
too much russian currency and euros coming into egypt due to tourism and hence why they are buying fighters from france and russia, uncle sam not happy as usual

first it was pakistan, now egypt and then its turkeys turn where USA is ready to walk away from military alliance.

least we not forget Pakistan was a "major non nato ally of the USA" just a few years ago
 
There's already a thread on this posted by @The SC here: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/actually-egypt-is-a-terrible-ally.534052/#post-10099608

@The Eagle , can you merge the two threads please.

And amidst all the biased things this guy said, foreign treasury bills have hit an all time high in Egypt with $18.85 billion in October!

USD 18.85bn T-bills foreign investments in Egypt by end-October

https://dailynewsegypt.com/2017/12/19/usd-18-85bn-t-bills-foreign-investments-egypt-end-october/


There were several rebuttals to all of this on Twitter by a guy named Timothy Kaldas who made nothing but excellent points and shredded this article into a zillion pieces.

These are the things he said that are right on target.

As I wrote a week ago Egypt has been juggling various international partners since the days of Nasser. It has been adept in doing so and is continuing now. Understandably, its interests do not fully sync with any one country & so its policies won't either.

Authors note that Egypt's govt failed to back US position on Israel. If they're referring to Jerusalem, so did the UK, the rest of the world & int'l law... If they're referring to the vote on settlements Egypt delayed last year, that was at behest of Trump

On Syria, Egypt's position under Sisi is clearly opposed to the US & it's unsurprising considering Assad's claim of fighting terrorists to preserve stability lines up well with Sisi's own justifications for his own brutality which the US has not prioritized pushing back against

While I am no fan of Heftar, the US is in no position to complain to Egypt about a destabilizing policy in Libya given its negligent handling of the crisis there. Libya's situation is Egypt's biggest external security threat and will pursue a policy it sees as best protecting it.

It's also a good thing for both Egypt and Yemen that Egypt has refused to participate in the brutal war in Yemen that Saudi has undertaken with the backing of its allies, including the US.

The authors overstate the influence $1.3 billion should buy and then try to oversell how much influence reducing aid will deliver arguing "disabusing Cairo of the notion that assistance is an entitlement might help to restore some leverage to extract concessions from Cairo."

Egypt's independence streak in foreign policy has proven resistant even to much larger sums. Following the 2013 coup the UAE, KSA & Kuwait gave Egypt tens of billions in aid and still Cairo refused to back them in Yemen & Syria.

It should give the authors pause that many govt critics take strong issue with their op-ed. We'd all like Egypt's policies to improve. Being compliant w/US wishes isn't necessarily an improvement & won't make Egypt a more effective ally.

This was the BEST ONE IMO. It really puts things in perspective as to the leverage of this aid.

Egypt's 1980 GDP was $23 billion & aid to Egypt was about $2 billion-nearly 10% of GDP. Aid is down to $1.3 billion & GDP up to $332 billion. 10% of GDP buys much more sway than 0.4%. Odds that reducing aid further will get Cairo to concede "leverage" to DC may be lower than 0.4%

 
There's already a thread on this posted by @The SC here: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/actually-egypt-is-a-terrible-ally.534052/#post-10099608

@The Eagle , can you merge the two threads please.

And amidst all the biased things this guy said, foreign treasury bills have hit an all time high in Egypt with $18.85 billion in October!

USD 18.85bn T-bills foreign investments in Egypt by end-October

https://dailynewsegypt.com/2017/12/19/usd-18-85bn-t-bills-foreign-investments-egypt-end-october/


There were several rebuttals to all of this on Twitter by a guy named Timothy Kaldas who made nothing but excellent points and shredded this article into a zillion pieces.

These are the things he said that are right on target.

As I wrote a week ago Egypt has been juggling various international partners since the days of Nasser. It has been adept in doing so and is continuing now. Understandably, its interests do not fully sync with any one country & so its policies won't either.

Authors note that Egypt's govt failed to back US position on Israel. If they're referring to Jerusalem, so did the UK, the rest of the world & int'l law... If they're referring to the vote on settlements Egypt delayed last year, that was at behest of Trump

On Syria, Egypt's position under Sisi is clearly opposed to the US & it's unsurprising considering Assad's claim of fighting terrorists to preserve stability lines up well with Sisi's own justifications for his own brutality which the US has not prioritized pushing back against

While I am no fan of Heftar, the US is in no position to complain to Egypt about a destabilizing policy in Libya given its negligent handling of the crisis there. Libya's situation is Egypt's biggest external security threat and will pursue a policy it sees as best protecting it.

It's also a good thing for both Egypt and Yemen that Egypt has refused to participate in the brutal war in Yemen that Saudi has undertaken with the backing of its allies, including the US.

The authors overstate the influence $1.3 billion should buy and then try to oversell how much influence reducing aid will deliver arguing "disabusing Cairo of the notion that assistance is an entitlement might help to restore some leverage to extract concessions from Cairo."

Egypt's independence streak in foreign policy has proven resistant even to much larger sums. Following the 2013 coup the UAE, KSA & Kuwait gave Egypt tens of billions in aid and still Cairo refused to back them in Yemen & Syria.

It should give the authors pause that many govt critics take strong issue with their op-ed. We'd all like Egypt's policies to improve. Being compliant w/US wishes isn't necessarily an improvement & won't make Egypt a more effective ally.

This was the BEST ONE IMO. It really puts things in perspective as to the leverage of this aid.

Egypt's 1980 GDP was $23 billion & aid to Egypt was about $2 billion-nearly 10% of GDP. Aid is down to $1.3 billion & GDP up to $332 billion. 10% of GDP buys much more sway than 0.4%. Odds that reducing aid further will get Cairo to concede "leverage" to DC may be lower than 0.4%
You can say that it is way less than that, because the PPP of $1.3 billion in the US (they have to spend it on US, afaik) is a lot lot less than the amount of gear Cairo would buy with the same amount (purchasing power is much higher in Egypt, amounting the GDP to >1trn USD).
Compare that with the distrust that has been caused towards their army, the Government's loss of legitimacy among the people of the Arab world for its recognition of its enemy Israel, the fact that whatever it buys has to be downgraded for those Israelis to feel safe (but not the price. It stays the same.) and the gradual loss of morale among countrymen, it really looks like Cairo sold itself off cheap.
If Trump cancels the aid to Egypt, then screw the American government. We have unfinished business with those next door.

Because sovereignty is indivisible.
 
My Comment/ this is a good start as US must know that Egypt is a Main player in the Middle East and cannot be compromised either in peace or war decisions in the region.
Egypt is not in the middle east !
 
too much russian currency and euros coming into egypt due to tourism and hence why they are buying fighters from france and russia, uncle sam not happy as usual

first it was pakistan, now egypt and then its turkeys turn where USA is ready to walk away from military alliance.

least we not forget Pakistan was a "major non nato ally of the USA" just a few years ago
The US is more powerfull then those countries combined
 

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Straight from Wikipedia!

Technically no but classed as yes.
I think it is not geographically from the Mid East, but politically, it very much is.
 
Straight from Wikipedia!


I think it is not geographically from the Mid East, but politically, it very much is.
The middle east is actually reffered as the near east i dont know why they still call it middle east ?!
 
Straight from Wikipedia!


I think it is not geographically from the Mid East, but politically, it very much is.
Middle east is a colonial name, chosen by British. Indicates the location of some countries close or far from British/EU empire.

True name is western Asia :
western-asia.jpg


Exclude that cancer :D
 
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