Zakaria: Bet on America in 2012
By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
It's the start of a new year and in the spirit of keeping myself honest, I thought I'd look back at what I said and wrote in TIME Magazine at the start of last year to see how I did. It's always risky to stick your neck out and humbling to look at your own predictions - but here goes.
The only indulgence I will allow myself is to start with the areas where I did well. I said that I thought that China would moderate its foreign policy behavior, recognizing that its assertiveness and arrogance over the last year had caused jitters throughout Asia. I think that happened.
I said that the Taliban's momentum would be broken in Afghanistan; it has somewhat. And I said that the American drawdown of troops in Iraq would take place and would cause no regional crisis or instability. All of that seemed to play out pretty much as I predicted.
I said that Iran would continue to be checked by a large group of regional and global powers. But there would be no American or Israeli strike. So far, so good.
Now, my misses:
I said that Europe would survive. It has taken the Europeans much time and many crises to come to the realization that they will have to bail out their spendthrift and unlucky partners in Greece and Ireland and perhaps in Portugal and Spain as well. Germany can afford the bill.
Well, Europe has survived but I think the situation did not resolve itself nearly so easily as I had thought it would.
My biggest miss, however, was the U.S. economy, which I thought would recover more vigorously than it did.
So what do I think for this year?
Believe it or not, I'm going to double down on my bets. I might have got the timing wrong, but I think I have the substance right. Europe will deal with its problems - not in a clean dramatic way, perhaps, not in the way that I had thought it would, but through various complex mechanisms that involve the stability fund, the European Central Bank and perhaps some kind of bond insurance.
Read: 2012 is the year of elections.
I remain convinced that Germany will not let Europe fall apart. If things get too dangerous, Germany will write the checks. It's just trying to get the best deal it can - it's try to get the most reforms from countries like Greece and Italy - before it does write those checks.
As for America: I'm still bullish. I think the American economy continues to have great strengths.
Consumers have rebuilt their balance sheets somewhat. The savings rate has gone from near zero to over 3.5%. Corporations are flush with cash. Yes, Washington remains dysfunctional, but remember there's a new dynamic at work even there. If congress does nothing - something it does very well - there are two sequestrations that take place. One cuts spending by $1.2 trillion and one raises taxes by $3.9 trillion. Remember, the Bush tax cuts expire if Congress does nothing, so all of the sudden there are pressures that bring the budget deficit down
Read: A post-American world in progress.
So the budget deficit problem could get solved - albeit in a blunt, crude way, but maybe that's how democracy works.
It's easy to spot all the problems we face. But I think there are also some silver linings here and that's where I'm putting my money.
What do you predict for 2012?
For more of my thoughts throughout the week, I invite you to follow me on Facebook and Twitter and to visit the Global Public Square every day.
Zakaria: Bet on America in 2012 – Global Public Square - CNN.com Blogs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
As you can see Fareed Zakaria is an idiot!
Fareed Zakaria also seems to be Sinophobic.
Fareed Zakaria also forgot to mention that USA is negotiating with the Taliban.
This is the kind of brainwashing the Americans get!
Everybody please laugh at Fareed Zakaria's stupidity and the stupdity of his articles!
By Fareed Zakaria, CNN
It's the start of a new year and in the spirit of keeping myself honest, I thought I'd look back at what I said and wrote in TIME Magazine at the start of last year to see how I did. It's always risky to stick your neck out and humbling to look at your own predictions - but here goes.
The only indulgence I will allow myself is to start with the areas where I did well. I said that I thought that China would moderate its foreign policy behavior, recognizing that its assertiveness and arrogance over the last year had caused jitters throughout Asia. I think that happened.
I said that the Taliban's momentum would be broken in Afghanistan; it has somewhat. And I said that the American drawdown of troops in Iraq would take place and would cause no regional crisis or instability. All of that seemed to play out pretty much as I predicted.
I said that Iran would continue to be checked by a large group of regional and global powers. But there would be no American or Israeli strike. So far, so good.
Now, my misses:
I said that Europe would survive. It has taken the Europeans much time and many crises to come to the realization that they will have to bail out their spendthrift and unlucky partners in Greece and Ireland and perhaps in Portugal and Spain as well. Germany can afford the bill.
Well, Europe has survived but I think the situation did not resolve itself nearly so easily as I had thought it would.
My biggest miss, however, was the U.S. economy, which I thought would recover more vigorously than it did.
So what do I think for this year?
Believe it or not, I'm going to double down on my bets. I might have got the timing wrong, but I think I have the substance right. Europe will deal with its problems - not in a clean dramatic way, perhaps, not in the way that I had thought it would, but through various complex mechanisms that involve the stability fund, the European Central Bank and perhaps some kind of bond insurance.
Read: 2012 is the year of elections.
I remain convinced that Germany will not let Europe fall apart. If things get too dangerous, Germany will write the checks. It's just trying to get the best deal it can - it's try to get the most reforms from countries like Greece and Italy - before it does write those checks.
As for America: I'm still bullish. I think the American economy continues to have great strengths.
Consumers have rebuilt their balance sheets somewhat. The savings rate has gone from near zero to over 3.5%. Corporations are flush with cash. Yes, Washington remains dysfunctional, but remember there's a new dynamic at work even there. If congress does nothing - something it does very well - there are two sequestrations that take place. One cuts spending by $1.2 trillion and one raises taxes by $3.9 trillion. Remember, the Bush tax cuts expire if Congress does nothing, so all of the sudden there are pressures that bring the budget deficit down
Read: A post-American world in progress.
So the budget deficit problem could get solved - albeit in a blunt, crude way, but maybe that's how democracy works.
It's easy to spot all the problems we face. But I think there are also some silver linings here and that's where I'm putting my money.
What do you predict for 2012?
For more of my thoughts throughout the week, I invite you to follow me on Facebook and Twitter and to visit the Global Public Square every day.
Zakaria: Bet on America in 2012 – Global Public Square - CNN.com Blogs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
As you can see Fareed Zakaria is an idiot!
Fareed Zakaria also seems to be Sinophobic.
Fareed Zakaria also forgot to mention that USA is negotiating with the Taliban.
This is the kind of brainwashing the Americans get!
Everybody please laugh at Fareed Zakaria's stupidity and the stupdity of his articles!
