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Xi Unlikely to Throw Putin a Lifeline as Ukraine Struggles Mount

Hamartia Antidote

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  • Xi, Putin set for first meeting since war on Thursday
  • China has resisted offering material support for Russia’s war
Shortly before invading Ukraine in February, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping declared a “no limits” friendship. Yet even as his forces suffer humiliating losses on the battlefield, Russia’s president shouldn’t expect much help at his first meeting with his Chinese counterpart since then.

Xi and Putin meet face-to-face in Uzbekistan on Thursday in their first sitdown since a Beijing meeting before the Winter Olympics that yielded a lengthy joint statement of more than 5,000 words. In it, they vowed to have “no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation” in challenging the US-led global order and pushing for a multipolar world.

Yet China appeared caught off guard when Putin invaded Ukraine a few weeks later. Officials in Beijing initially struggled to both support Russia and avoid endorsing a clear violation of sovereignty -- a pretext that could be used to justify foreign intervention in Taiwan, which China claims as its territory.

China’s diplomatic backing for Russia eventually solidified over the months, and strengthened further after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August. Last week, Li Zhanshu -- China’s No. 3 official -- visited Moscow and told Russian lawmakers that Beijing’s leaders “fully understand the necessity of all the measures taken by Russia aimed at protecting its key interests.”

Sanctions Fears​


But while trade has picked up even as the US and its allies have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia, Beijing has stopped short of sending military supplies or financial support that might make it a target of such restrictions. And, despite recent fears among some financial investors, Beijing’s position is unlikely to change even if Putin on Thursday asks Xi for military assistance in Ukraine following heavy Russian losses in recent weeks.

“Chinese officials talk about a partnership ‘without limits,’ but Russia and China have always agreed to disagree on numerous issues,” said Elizabeth Wishnick, a senior research scientist at the CNA, a security think tank in Washington.

“I don’t think Chinese military aid to Russia is likely due to the sanctions and strong international opprobrium that would ensue,” she added. “This would also contradict Chinese claims that western military support for Ukraine perpetuates the war.”

Putin in recent days has seen some of his biggest losses since the war began, with Ukraine saying it retook more than 6,000 square kilometers (2,300 square miles) of land in a counteroffensive that has shifted the momentum of the conflict. Although Russia still controls about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, fears are rising that Putin may seek further escalation to regain the upper hand.

While Xi sees Russia as an important diplomatic ally to resist the US, particular its military alliances and control of the global financial system, he has few domestic incentives to get involved. The Chinese leader is set to secure a third term in power at a party congress next month while also dealing with an economic slowdown and a property crisis.

What’s more, sending troops or weapons would mark a violation of sovereignty, undercutting China’s own stated positions. The Kremlin has had to turn to Iran and North Korea for drones and ammunition, according to the US.

Any Chinese loss of life or economic hardship exacerbated by financial sanctions only risks blowing back politically on the Communist Party, which has vowed to raise living standards among the masses and even locked down major cities to keep people from dying of Covid.

Export Rebound​


Chinese exports to Russia are almost back at Dec. 2021 record
China has several ways to show more support for Russia that would not fundamentally shift its position on the conflict, said Amanda Hsiao, senior analyst at Crisis Group, a Brussels-based policy research organization.

That includes using the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Uzbekistan to show the world that Putin isn’t isolated, as well as potentially participating in more military exercises with Russia, she said.

Energetic Trade​


Energy and other commodities dominate China's imports from Russia
China and Russia’s economic ties have grown despite US and European sanctions in the war. Dominated by energy and other commodities, Russia’s exports to China jumped nearly 50% to $40.8 billion in the first five months of the year.


China has also helped fill a void left by fleeing foreign firms with cars, televisions and smartphones as its exports to Russia recover after a lull following the invasion. Its exports to Russia of integrated circuits and other semiconductor components, and the machines that make them, rose to $155 million in the first seven months of this year, up almost 27% compared to the same period in 2021.

“So far China has provided political and moral support to Moscow but has refrained from providing military assistance and toed the line on sanctions,” Hsiao said. “This posture reflects a balancing of its strategic interests with its economic ones -- these interests will continue to guide Beijing’s positioning going forward.”



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Pak has already ditched Russia as far as Ukraine is concerned. China wouldn't like to bet on a losing horse for they won't mind fishing in the muddy water.....

I have to admit Pak took a right decision for the Ukraine war, which would be winding up soon. Putin now needs to concentrate on the home front as the ramifications would now hit deep into Russia to generate early 1990s type turmoil....

As for the US policymakers, they now smell "post-Afgan debacle in 1989" type blood. Hopefully, they won't make the same mistake of abandoning Pak this time should they want to make some solid inroads into the Central Asia.....
 
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China is not involved in any shape or form in this war. Ukraine was the largest grain exporter to China before the war and China had tens of billions of investment in the country.
 
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china will help russia with economic support. $200bn russia-china trade is just around the corner.
 
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Pak has already ditched Russia as far as Ukraine is concerned. China wouldn't like to bet on a losing horse for they won't mind fishing in the muddy water.....

I have to admit Pak took a right decision for the Ukraine war, which would be winding up soon. Putin now needs to concentrate on the home front as the ramifications would now hit deep into Russia to generate early 1990s type turmoil....

As for the US policymakers, they now smell "post-Afgan debacle in 1989" type blood. Hopefully, they won't make the same mistake of abandoning Pak this time should they want to make some solid inroads into the Central Asia.....
inroads into Central Asia with America's help would put Pakistan on a collision course with Iran, China and Russia. It is ain't happening
 
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Putin doesn't need a lifeline. Why would anyone think of that when Russia is not even mobilized?
 
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Putin doesn't need a lifeline. Why would anyone think of that when Russia is not even mobilized?

when you buy drones from Iran and shells from North Korea that means you are desperate

and despite China having a far more superior military complex they are too scared to get involved
 
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Putin doesn't need a lifeline. Why would anyone think of that when Russia is not even mobilized?
That's because mobilisation take times, time is what Russia DO NOT have.

You don't just give people guns and send them to war. You need training, indoctrination, equipment and so on, in the US, a soldier was trained for up to 25 weeks including OSUT to be an infantryman, and more than 1 year if you are to preform specialize task (like combine arms assault). Which is what Russia is doing in Ukraine at the moment.

If you put a person into a warzone with 4 weeks or more glorified training, it looks good for someone in uniform walking down the street, it does no good if you want him to assault a static or dynamic defence position. Let alone facing someone who had been blooded. They won't last a week if they do that.

By the time Russia properly trained and equipment those mobilised troop, there are nothing for them to defend in Ukraine. It may have an impact if the Russian mobilise 6 months ago, now it's 1 months before winter, there are pretty much nothing the Russian can do.
 
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when you buy drones from Iran and shells from North Korea that means you are desperate

and despite China having a far more superior military complex they are too scared to get involved
These are small and convenient helps. Nobody expects those to turn the tide. If China gets involved, that would be a big showdown. I don't think we would get there before Russia mobilizes first.
 
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China's mind is to keep Russia's economy afloat so the government won't collapse, record trade and imports are the clear anwser for this goal, China never supports this ongoing war and tried to stop it from happening during Putin's visit to Beijing during the Olympics, China says she will never support a war that hurts Russia and Ukraine and only benefits US. It's up to Russia to continue or end the war, it's not a war that Russia has to fight and win. speaking of struggling, check out the economic numbers, EU suffers more than Russia, it's sly and tricky western media tries so hard to depict a bleak picture for Russia but not themselves.
 
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  • Xi, Putin set for first meeting since war on Thursday
  • China has resisted offering material support for Russia’s war
Shortly before invading Ukraine in February, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping declared a “no limits” friendship. Yet even as his forces suffer humiliating losses on the battlefield, Russia’s president shouldn’t expect much help at his first meeting with his Chinese counterpart since then.

Xi and Putin meet face-to-face in Uzbekistan on Thursday in their first sitdown since a Beijing meeting before the Winter Olympics that yielded a lengthy joint statement of more than 5,000 words. In it, they vowed to have “no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation” in challenging the US-led global order and pushing for a multipolar world.

Yet China appeared caught off guard when Putin invaded Ukraine a few weeks later. Officials in Beijing initially struggled to both support Russia and avoid endorsing a clear violation of sovereignty -- a pretext that could be used to justify foreign intervention in Taiwan, which China claims as its territory.

China’s diplomatic backing for Russia eventually solidified over the months, and strengthened further after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August. Last week, Li Zhanshu -- China’s No. 3 official -- visited Moscow and told Russian lawmakers that Beijing’s leaders “fully understand the necessity of all the measures taken by Russia aimed at protecting its key interests.”

Sanctions Fears​


But while trade has picked up even as the US and its allies have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia, Beijing has stopped short of sending military supplies or financial support that might make it a target of such restrictions. And, despite recent fears among some financial investors, Beijing’s position is unlikely to change even if Putin on Thursday asks Xi for military assistance in Ukraine following heavy Russian losses in recent weeks.

“Chinese officials talk about a partnership ‘without limits,’ but Russia and China have always agreed to disagree on numerous issues,” said Elizabeth Wishnick, a senior research scientist at the CNA, a security think tank in Washington.

“I don’t think Chinese military aid to Russia is likely due to the sanctions and strong international opprobrium that would ensue,” she added. “This would also contradict Chinese claims that western military support for Ukraine perpetuates the war.”

Putin in recent days has seen some of his biggest losses since the war began, with Ukraine saying it retook more than 6,000 square kilometers (2,300 square miles) of land in a counteroffensive that has shifted the momentum of the conflict. Although Russia still controls about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, fears are rising that Putin may seek further escalation to regain the upper hand.

While Xi sees Russia as an important diplomatic ally to resist the US, particular its military alliances and control of the global financial system, he has few domestic incentives to get involved. The Chinese leader is set to secure a third term in power at a party congress next month while also dealing with an economic slowdown and a property crisis.

What’s more, sending troops or weapons would mark a violation of sovereignty, undercutting China’s own stated positions. The Kremlin has had to turn to Iran and North Korea for drones and ammunition, according to the US.

Any Chinese loss of life or economic hardship exacerbated by financial sanctions only risks blowing back politically on the Communist Party, which has vowed to raise living standards among the masses and even locked down major cities to keep people from dying of Covid.

Export Rebound​


Chinese exports to Russia are almost back at Dec. 2021 record
China has several ways to show more support for Russia that would not fundamentally shift its position on the conflict, said Amanda Hsiao, senior analyst at Crisis Group, a Brussels-based policy research organization.

That includes using the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Uzbekistan to show the world that Putin isn’t isolated, as well as potentially participating in more military exercises with Russia, she said.

Energetic Trade​


Energy and other commodities dominate China's imports from Russia
China and Russia’s economic ties have grown despite US and European sanctions in the war. Dominated by energy and other commodities, Russia’s exports to China jumped nearly 50% to $40.8 billion in the first five months of the year.


China has also helped fill a void left by fleeing foreign firms with cars, televisions and smartphones as its exports to Russia recover after a lull following the invasion. Its exports to Russia of integrated circuits and other semiconductor components, and the machines that make them, rose to $155 million in the first seven months of this year, up almost 27% compared to the same period in 2021.

“So far China has provided political and moral support to Moscow but has refrained from providing military assistance and toed the line on sanctions,” Hsiao said. “This posture reflects a balancing of its strategic interests with its economic ones -- these interests will continue to guide Beijing’s positioning going forward.”



images

This what china's "no limit" friendship looks like. The moment you becomes a burden you get thrown off the bus.

And they wonder why nobody wants to be their friend.
 
.

  • Xi, Putin set for first meeting since war on Thursday
  • China has resisted offering material support for Russia’s war
Shortly before invading Ukraine in February, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping declared a “no limits” friendship. Yet even as his forces suffer humiliating losses on the battlefield, Russia’s president shouldn’t expect much help at his first meeting with his Chinese counterpart since then.

Xi and Putin meet face-to-face in Uzbekistan on Thursday in their first sitdown since a Beijing meeting before the Winter Olympics that yielded a lengthy joint statement of more than 5,000 words. In it, they vowed to have “no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation” in challenging the US-led global order and pushing for a multipolar world.

Yet China appeared caught off guard when Putin invaded Ukraine a few weeks later. Officials in Beijing initially struggled to both support Russia and avoid endorsing a clear violation of sovereignty -- a pretext that could be used to justify foreign intervention in Taiwan, which China claims as its territory.

China’s diplomatic backing for Russia eventually solidified over the months, and strengthened further after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August. Last week, Li Zhanshu -- China’s No. 3 official -- visited Moscow and told Russian lawmakers that Beijing’s leaders “fully understand the necessity of all the measures taken by Russia aimed at protecting its key interests.”

Sanctions Fears​


But while trade has picked up even as the US and its allies have imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia, Beijing has stopped short of sending military supplies or financial support that might make it a target of such restrictions. And, despite recent fears among some financial investors, Beijing’s position is unlikely to change even if Putin on Thursday asks Xi for military assistance in Ukraine following heavy Russian losses in recent weeks.

“Chinese officials talk about a partnership ‘without limits,’ but Russia and China have always agreed to disagree on numerous issues,” said Elizabeth Wishnick, a senior research scientist at the CNA, a security think tank in Washington.

“I don’t think Chinese military aid to Russia is likely due to the sanctions and strong international opprobrium that would ensue,” she added. “This would also contradict Chinese claims that western military support for Ukraine perpetuates the war.”

Putin in recent days has seen some of his biggest losses since the war began, with Ukraine saying it retook more than 6,000 square kilometers (2,300 square miles) of land in a counteroffensive that has shifted the momentum of the conflict. Although Russia still controls about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, fears are rising that Putin may seek further escalation to regain the upper hand.

While Xi sees Russia as an important diplomatic ally to resist the US, particular its military alliances and control of the global financial system, he has few domestic incentives to get involved. The Chinese leader is set to secure a third term in power at a party congress next month while also dealing with an economic slowdown and a property crisis.

What’s more, sending troops or weapons would mark a violation of sovereignty, undercutting China’s own stated positions. The Kremlin has had to turn to Iran and North Korea for drones and ammunition, according to the US.

Any Chinese loss of life or economic hardship exacerbated by financial sanctions only risks blowing back politically on the Communist Party, which has vowed to raise living standards among the masses and even locked down major cities to keep people from dying of Covid.

Export Rebound​


Chinese exports to Russia are almost back at Dec. 2021 record
China has several ways to show more support for Russia that would not fundamentally shift its position on the conflict, said Amanda Hsiao, senior analyst at Crisis Group, a Brussels-based policy research organization.

That includes using the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Uzbekistan to show the world that Putin isn’t isolated, as well as potentially participating in more military exercises with Russia, she said.

Energetic Trade​


Energy and other commodities dominate China's imports from Russia
China and Russia’s economic ties have grown despite US and European sanctions in the war. Dominated by energy and other commodities, Russia’s exports to China jumped nearly 50% to $40.8 billion in the first five months of the year.


China has also helped fill a void left by fleeing foreign firms with cars, televisions and smartphones as its exports to Russia recover after a lull following the invasion. Its exports to Russia of integrated circuits and other semiconductor components, and the machines that make them, rose to $155 million in the first seven months of this year, up almost 27% compared to the same period in 2021.

“So far China has provided political and moral support to Moscow but has refrained from providing military assistance and toed the line on sanctions,” Hsiao said. “This posture reflects a balancing of its strategic interests with its economic ones -- these interests will continue to guide Beijing’s positioning going forward.”



images

Chinese are wise people.

Xi knows that Russia will lose the war and get balkanized.
 
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This what china's "no limit" friendship looks like. The moment you becomes a burden you get thrown off the bus.

And they wonder why nobody wants to be their friend.
No limit in Chinese means all possibilities, western media is so dumb to get this low to try to put a wedge bw China and Russia, friends always are allowed to have different views on certain issues, we are not like you guys master slave relationship with US.
 
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No limit in Chinese means all possibilities, western media is so dumb to get this low to try to put a wedge bw China and Russia, friends always are allowed to have different views on certain issues, we are not like you guys master slave relationship with US.

Over 40 countries has agreed to sanction russia (Even Switzerland!), sending humanitarian aid, sharing infos, sending weapons & helping to train Ukrainian military, etc.

This is what real "no limit friendship" looks like.

Meanwhile China only gives what? Free delivery on Alibaba for Baofeng radios & DJI drones?
 
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Over 40 countries has agreed to sanction russia (Even Switzerland!), sending humanitarian aid, sharing infos, sending weapons & helping to train Ukrainian military, etc.

This is what real "no limit friendship" looks like.

Meanwhile China only gives what? Free delivery on Alibaba for Baofeng radios & DJI drones?
We can single handedly keep Russia's economy afloat, which is enough to cancel out all your so called "over 40 countries' combined effort.
 
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