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Xi Jinping Should Capitulate, Not Because US Is Right, But For China’s Own Vulnerability

Bussard Ramjet

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Xi Jinping Should Capitulate, Not Because US Is Right, But For China’s Own Vulnerability
ll

A camel, though dead, is still bigger than a horse—so goes a Chinese proverb. Such is an accurate depiction of the current US-China relationship.

America, a declining world power, can easily push China into a dead end, despite China’s economic rise over the past four decades. Xi Jinping should immediately capitulate in the trade negotiations, as this will inflict the least damage to China. For China’s long-term prospects, to accept US demands, instead of fighting against it, is the best course of action because China is currently too weak to afford any wars.

China’s vulnerability is worse than most people realize. Perhaps Trump knows this better than most. Its economy is at a critical turning point. After years of restructuring, the growth model struggles to become more sustainable. Its technology capabilities, despite Chinese media’s grandiose self-congratulations, can’t survive blows from the US. Its military power lags far behind. Its currency sits in a precarious position. It has lost a global public relations battle. China has no one’s sympathy.


When chatting with someone who works at a large Chinese AI startup a few months ago, we both laughed at the hypothesis that if Nvadia stops selling GPUs to Chinese companies, no Chinese AI company can survive. It was such an unthinkable scenario to imagine back then. Now it suddenly becomes very real, after Huawei was put on the “entity list” and Google cut off Huawei’s Android license.

The US has a tight stranglehold on Chinese industries and technology. Without American chips and operating systems, the giant Chinese IT industry skyscraper will topple. The reverse is not true. For the type of low-end assembly and manufacturing work Chinese companies are conducting, American companies can restructure their supply chain to many other countries who are more than happy to take China’s place.

China’s hands are tied in purchasing US treasuries. Its national coffers are mostly in US dollars and it must protect its own assets. China’s economy is loosing steam while the American economy is very strong. If Beijing begins monetary and fiscal stimulus again after the trade war escalates, it will make the Chinese economy further addicted to the drug of credit. Xi must realize that his cards against the US are very limited.

The US can inflict so much more pain to China, and this is only the beginning. On the other hand, China has few “weapons” in its hands. The sooner Xi caves in, the less damage to China’s economy and the better the future China can secure.

This is a bitter pill that China must swallow. To some extent, China deserves it. It got ahead of itself and was lost in a self-congratulatory mentality. After pundits called the US to wake up to “Chinese threat,” it is time for China to wake up from its illusion that it can already rival the US.


https://www.chinamoneynetwork.com/2...-us-is-right-but-for-chinas-own-vulnerability
 
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@Han Patriot @TaiShang

Frankly, I don't see China taking any good step towards the tech and trade war.

From my perspective, either China should accept US demands and put its head down and work ahead.

Or it should use the dictum of "escalate to deescalate."
 
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@Han Patriot @TaiShang

Frankly, I don't see China taking any good step towards the tech and trade war.

From my perspective, either China should accept US demands and put its head down and work ahead.

Or it should use the dictum of "escalate to deescalate."
Haha, do u still remember I said "CN is in chaos in 2023" ??

There is No way to avoid the chaos now. Xi will keep fighting for his throne, so CN will be splited into at least 2 parts again.
 
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In 1950, China was far more "vulnerable" than it is now. For invertebrates, It's always fragile. Even if they call themselves: SP12:dance3::dance3::dance3::dance3:

Why should I explain a knee to a housekeeper who is ready to kneel down in front of his master?



b6d91c39901d98fb77278772e001e2f800e0cc93324983e1d28d6b5ef16341cf.jpg


Haha, do u still remember I said "CN is in chaos in 2023" ??

There is No way to avoid the chaos now. Xi will keep fighting for his throne, so CN will be splited into at least 2 parts again.
23-19=4~~~~~~:raise::raise::raise::raise::raise:
 
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@Han Patriot @TaiShang

Frankly, I don't see China taking any good step towards the tech and trade war.

From my perspective, either China should accept US demands and put its head down and work ahead.

Or it should use the dictum of "escalate to deescalate."
I think what China is doing is the most rational. Maintain it's stand while engaging the world. If India wants to bend over, be my guest, I won't judge. Why does everyone think a trade war means someone will implode or explode. It will just slow down growth in certain sectors, but don't forget other new sectors will emerge. At most it will dent .5 to 1% of growth. I think Xi is pretty confident we can go through this. But what you don't realise is US is suffering as well, despite the rosy picture painted.
 
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When chatting with someone who works at a large Chinese AI startup a few months ago, we both laughed at the hypothesis that if Nvadia stops selling GPUs to Chinese companies, no Chinese AI company can survive.

AI chips are a dime a dozen in China.
Cambricon has 7nm AI chip.
Huawei has 7nm AI chip twice as powerful as Nvidia V100.
KX-6000 is an eight-core x86-64 SoC with integrated GPU. No need for Nvidia.

The article you posted is a regurgitation of bad Western media propaganda. Most if not all of it is BS.
 

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Xi Jinping Should Capitulate, Not Because US Is Right, But For China’s Own Vulnerability
ll

A camel, though dead, is still bigger than a horse—so goes a Chinese proverb. Such is an accurate depiction of the current US-China relationship.

America, a declining world power, can easily push China into a dead end, despite China’s economic rise over the past four decades. Xi Jinping should immediately capitulate in the trade negotiations, as this will inflict the least damage to China. For China’s long-term prospects, to accept US demands, instead of fighting against it, is the best course of action because China is currently too weak to afford any wars.

China’s vulnerability is worse than most people realize. Perhaps Trump knows this better than most. Its economy is at a critical turning point. After years of restructuring, the growth model struggles to become more sustainable. Its technology capabilities, despite Chinese media’s grandiose self-congratulations, can’t survive blows from the US. Its military power lags far behind. Its currency sits in a precarious position. It has lost a global public relations battle. China has no one’s sympathy.


When chatting with someone who works at a large Chinese AI startup a few months ago, we both laughed at the hypothesis that if Nvadia stops selling GPUs to Chinese companies, no Chinese AI company can survive. It was such an unthinkable scenario to imagine back then. Now it suddenly becomes very real, after Huawei was put on the “entity list” and Google cut off Huawei’s Android license.

The US has a tight stranglehold on Chinese industries and technology. Without American chips and operating systems, the giant Chinese IT industry skyscraper will topple. The reverse is not true. For the type of low-end assembly and manufacturing work Chinese companies are conducting, American companies can restructure their supply chain to many other countries who are more than happy to take China’s place.

China’s hands are tied in purchasing US treasuries. Its national coffers are mostly in US dollars and it must protect its own assets. China’s economy is loosing steam while the American economy is very strong. If Beijing begins monetary and fiscal stimulus again after the trade war escalates, it will make the Chinese economy further addicted to the drug of credit. Xi must realize that his cards against the US are very limited.

The US can inflict so much more pain to China, and this is only the beginning. On the other hand, China has few “weapons” in its hands. The sooner Xi caves in, the less damage to China’s economy and the better the future China can secure.

This is a bitter pill that China must swallow. To some extent, China deserves it. It got ahead of itself and was lost in a self-congratulatory mentality. After pundits called the US to wake up to “Chinese threat,” it is time for China to wake up from its illusion that it can already rival the US.


https://www.chinamoneynetwork.com/2...-us-is-right-but-for-chinas-own-vulnerability

Hi,

Tactically---china should take a bow---and step back---.

The US economy is at the verge of a crash---. If it crashes---china would also crash---.

Mexico has made a smart move---. It has bowed down to the US pressure---. You live for today to fight another day---.

China has already made a point---now it needs breathing room to further develop---.
 
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Xi Jingping will capitulate. That’s out of question. China is not Vietnam that fights until the bitter end. Xi just needs to figure out how deep he can bow down without losing face too much.
 
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China has nothing to fear from a country as blind as the US with no long term vision. Trump or anyone will else cave in the day wall street crashes which isn't very far away now. China has a firm grip and control over its own economy that give them more possibilities. That article says that China has no one's sympathy but that's because the writer thinks everyone thinks the way she and her friends think. The facts are that the US couldn't event get their closest allies to ban Huawei despite a year long intensive campaign including threats that they would stop intelligence sharing. The BRI is joined by more and more countries despite the propaganda efforts. China is winning. Stop worrying and just watch and learn, maybe India will stop being such a despicable submissive country after seeing how it's done.
 
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