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Xi Jinping: China’s Economic Risks ‘Not That Scary’

Aepsilons

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Comment: I admit, I'm becoming ever a fan of President Xi Jinping. This guy is spectacular, pragmatic, traditional yet fueled with the dream of a Greater China. He is , in my opinion, Deng version 2.0.


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BEIJING—China’s economic risks are manageable, President Xi Jinping told business leaders Sunday, pledging to help boost growth and improve infrastructure, trade and transport links across the Asia-Pacific region.

While some people are worried about the Chinese economy, Beijing has the tools to address perceived risks, Mr. Xi told executives at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting. The meeting of 21 regional economies hosted by China runs through Tuesday.

“Indeed there are risks, but not that scary,” Mr. Xi said in a speech. “Resilience best equips the Chinese economy against risks.”

Momentum in the world’s second-largest economy has slipped this year amid slower growth in investment and a slumping real-estate market. China’s gross domestic product grew by 7.3% year over year in the third quarter, its slowest pace in five years, down from 7.5% growth in the second quarter, fueling concern that China could miss its annual growth target of about 7.5%.

But Mr. Xi played down concerns. Economic data in the first nine months remained in a reasonable range, he said, adding that slower growth is a “new normal,” and annual growth above 7% still puts China’s economy among global leaders in speed and size.

China needs to improve its social safety net and open its capital markets, the Chinese president said, adding that urbanization, agricultural modernization, better use of technology and new approaches to macroeconomic management will help relieve “growing pains” as the economy increasingly relies on consumption and reduces its reliance on exports.

“And given the strategies and policy options at our disposal, we have the confidence and capability to cope with potential risks,” he said.


Mr. Xi said China will be an engine of economic growth for the Asia-Pacific region. Over the next five years, China’s imports are projected to exceed $10 trillion and the number of outbound Chinese tourists is expected to top 500 million, he said. China’s outbound foreign direct investment over the next decade is expected to reach $1.25 trillion, he added.

These projections aren't a huge increase from current Chinese levels. In 2013, imports were $1.95 trillion and outbound tourists were 98.2 million, according to Chinese government figures, while total nonfinancial direct foreign investment abroad had reached $525.7 billion at the end of 2013. The Ministry of Commerce said outbound investment in 2013 was $90.2 billion, up 16.8% from the 2012 level.

Mr. Xi also outlined what he called an “Asia-Pacific dream,” echoing his signature domestic political slogan of a “Chinese dream” to rejuvenate the nation and restore it to its position of prominence in the world.

China’s growth would bring opportunities and benefits to the region and the world, he said.

“The development prospect of our region hinges on the decisions and actions we take today,” Mr. Xi said. “We are duty-bound to create and fulfill an Asia-Pacific dream for our people.”

He also called for improvements to regional transport infrastructure, highlighting China’s own plans, unveiled last year, to develop a “Silk Road Economic Belt” and a “21st-Century Maritime Silk Road.”

The former is a network of highways, railways and other critical infrastructure linking China to Central and South Asia, the Middle East and Europe. The maritime route entails building or expanding ports and industrial parks in Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe.

Mr. Xi announced Saturday that China would contribute $40 billion to a new Silk Road fund it has set up to finance those plans, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. That followed the establishment last month of the $50 billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which Mr. Xi says will also help to finance the new infrastructure projects.

Mr. Xi said a process toward launching a regional pact favored by Beijing and known as the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific will be launched this year. Washington favors an alternative free-trade pact known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which doesn’t include China. Leaders of the 12 TPP nations are scheduled to meet Monday on that pact, which has been held up by a dispute over Japanese agricultural trade, among other issues.

The FTAAP would increase the size of the global economy by $2.4 trillion by 2025, Xinhua said in a commentary Sunday, adding that Western media reports of a rivalry for regional-trade leadership are unfounded. “Allegations of this sort are groundless and betray their advocates’ obsession with confrontation or sensation,” Xinhua said.

—Chuin-Wei Yap and William Kazer contributed to this article.


http://online.wsj.com/articles/xi-jinping-chinas-economic-risks-not-that-scary-1415516936
 
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Sir @LeveragedBuyout , what is your opinion on President Xi Jinping ? Id like to hear your opinion towards his political economy. Thank You in Advance.

@SvenSvensonov , your views on His Excellency President Xi Jinping? Your predictions on the American-Chinese military relationship. Overall Asia-Pacific.
 
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Sir @LeveragedBuyout , what is your opinion on President Xi Jinping ? Id like to hear your opinion towards his political economy. Thank You in Advance.

@SvenSvensonov , your views on His Excellency President Xi Jinping? Your predictions on the American-Chinese military relationship. Overall Asia-Pacific.

I have also professed my admiration for Xi, and I think he's off to a great start with his anti-corruption campaign. Nothing will ensure China's prosperity more than strong, clean institutions, so he is right to prioritize that area. I also have a deep respect and admiration for Li Keqiang, whose no-nonsense, efficient economic management gives me confidence that China will make a successful transition to a consumption-based economy. He has proven to be clear-eyed about the problems facing China, and the type of solutions that are necessary (e.g. increasing economic liberalization, as discussed in the FDI thread that has seen so much push-back).

That said, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is a massive disappointment, and an early sign that economic reform will not be easy. I hope Xi and Li spend the necessary political capital to push through these critical reforms, because the future will be quite ugly for China if it doesn't adjust (see the section about the Chinese debt trap; I do my best not to comment on the Chinese economy unless asked, which is why I don't simply post the section in question here).
 
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That said, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is a massive disappointment, and an early sign that economic reform will not be easy. I hope Xi and Li spend the necessary political capital to push through these critical reforms, because the future will be quite ugly for China if it doesn't adjust (see the section about the Chinese debt trap; I do my best not to comment on the Chinese economy unless asked, which is why I don't simply post the section in question here).

This is something that I need to study more into. The concept of the Dept Trap.
 
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