Beskar
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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan could become a $2 trillion economy in the next 28 years if it remains steadfast in its reforms and manages to reduce its population growth rate to 1.2%
“With sustained reforms, Pakistan could be a $2 trillion economy when it will turn 100 in the next 28 years,” said the World Bank (WB) Country Director Patchamuthu Illangovan while sharing the main findings of the ‘Pakistan @100- Sharing the Future 2047′ report on Monday.
“The $2 trillion economy means an upper middle-income country where per capita income will be $5,702 but it will have to halve its population growth rate to 1.2% by 2047,” he added.
However, business, as usual, would mean that the size of Pakistan’s economy will be only $1 trillion and the per capita income will be just $2110. By 2047, Pakistan’s population will be 376 million at current growth rate, said the country director. The size of Pakistan’s economy is now only $275 billion.
The Washington-based lending agency released the report on Monday in a gathering of government functionaries, academia, diplomats and financial institutions. The report says the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been undermined by rent-seeking behaviour and complex security situation.
According to the report, Pakistan’s economy right now is captured by four influential groups that have frustrated efforts to bring reforms but the country now stands at a crossroad and it has to decide whether it wants to become an upper middle-income nation or stay poor.
It argues that in the 1960s, the chief economist of the Planning Commission, Mahbub-ul-Haq, claimed that 22 families controlled 66 per cent of the industrial wealth and 87 percent of banking and insurance.
“More recent analysis suggests that elite capture continues to constrain economic policymaking”. Since the 1980s, the share of industrialists in the National Assembly and parliament has doubled, blurring the barrier between politicians and businessmen.
It added policy uncertainty and a lack of trust in policy implementation affect firms’ reactions to reforms and may affect the effectiveness of otherwise well-designed and implemented policies.
“Elite capture in Pakistan has affected policymaking, as in certain circumstances political leaders lack incentives to formulate policies in response to citizens’ demands, or to work toward effective policy implementation,” says the report.
The WB report states that a unique feature of Pakistan’s history is that economic, social and security policies gave rise to various elite factions that sustain economic and political power until today.
While citing a reference of a study, the report underlines that “there exist at least four influential groups that gained power through historic events and continue to leverage their influence on the political system for personal gain”. These are civil servants, landowners, industrialists, and the military.
The WB states that there was evidence that Pakistan’s elites have used this power in the past to undermine reforms that would have reduced their influence.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1932240/2-world-bank-sees-pakistans-potential-2tr-economy/
“With sustained reforms, Pakistan could be a $2 trillion economy when it will turn 100 in the next 28 years,” said the World Bank (WB) Country Director Patchamuthu Illangovan while sharing the main findings of the ‘Pakistan @100- Sharing the Future 2047′ report on Monday.
“The $2 trillion economy means an upper middle-income country where per capita income will be $5,702 but it will have to halve its population growth rate to 1.2% by 2047,” he added.
However, business, as usual, would mean that the size of Pakistan’s economy will be only $1 trillion and the per capita income will be just $2110. By 2047, Pakistan’s population will be 376 million at current growth rate, said the country director. The size of Pakistan’s economy is now only $275 billion.
The Washington-based lending agency released the report on Monday in a gathering of government functionaries, academia, diplomats and financial institutions. The report says the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been undermined by rent-seeking behaviour and complex security situation.
According to the report, Pakistan’s economy right now is captured by four influential groups that have frustrated efforts to bring reforms but the country now stands at a crossroad and it has to decide whether it wants to become an upper middle-income nation or stay poor.
It argues that in the 1960s, the chief economist of the Planning Commission, Mahbub-ul-Haq, claimed that 22 families controlled 66 per cent of the industrial wealth and 87 percent of banking and insurance.
“More recent analysis suggests that elite capture continues to constrain economic policymaking”. Since the 1980s, the share of industrialists in the National Assembly and parliament has doubled, blurring the barrier between politicians and businessmen.
It added policy uncertainty and a lack of trust in policy implementation affect firms’ reactions to reforms and may affect the effectiveness of otherwise well-designed and implemented policies.
“Elite capture in Pakistan has affected policymaking, as in certain circumstances political leaders lack incentives to formulate policies in response to citizens’ demands, or to work toward effective policy implementation,” says the report.
The WB report states that a unique feature of Pakistan’s history is that economic, social and security policies gave rise to various elite factions that sustain economic and political power until today.
While citing a reference of a study, the report underlines that “there exist at least four influential groups that gained power through historic events and continue to leverage their influence on the political system for personal gain”. These are civil servants, landowners, industrialists, and the military.
The WB states that there was evidence that Pakistan’s elites have used this power in the past to undermine reforms that would have reduced their influence.
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1932240/2-world-bank-sees-pakistans-potential-2tr-economy/
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