With or without the F-16s, Pakistan will remain a regional game changer

[majid mehmood]

A nation with $ 19 billion in her savings account, for national security purposes, can spend $ 2 billion tomorrow and get stuff on cash. The only thing like I've said many times is, Pakistan is being smart about it. She doesn't want to tick off the WB and the IMF (both of which have a lot of Indian influence).


So if Pakistan can push ahead making economic progress for two more years, by the end of 2017, part of the CPEC would be functional, electric issue would be resolved, the country would be sitting around $ 30 billion cash, so middle finger for the IMF. It can secure loans directly from the manufacturing country for anything due to loan to cash ratio.


This is where both Shariffs are playing great together. Bad Cop (Gen. Raheel) and Good Cop (NS) when it comes to India. Gen. Raheel will issue a strong war-like message to keep Indian in reality check, the next week, NS will send MANGOS to keep their leadership calm. This is perfect aggressive-passive diplomacy and it works. Tells the Indians to remain at bay and at the same time, with a smile, it says "we don't want war, here, have some Mangos". All this is buying time for 2 more years. Then, India won't be issuing these silly statements, knowing there are over 400 4th gen jets to intercept whatever they have to send. Just like the Cold Feet doctrine has seen its end, and just like the "Naval Blockade" has seen its end.


So in the next 2+ years, you'll see a bump in the defense spending. By 2018, the defense budget of Pakistan will be around $ 12-14 billion. And heavies would come, the JFT's will be further advanced to block III.

In the current scenario, the JFT fires a BVR missile from JUST as much distance as the SU-30 and the Mirage 2000 or the F-16 would, in the Indo-Pak scenario. So majority of the work is going to be depending upon missiles. In dog fight, JFT can take on all Indian strike platforms but SU-30 and Rafale (when it comes). The -16 can take on the SU-30 and Rafale. Starting 2018, you'll see orders on the table for more assets and much modern at that. You just have to wait.


Like i said, the Pakistan running on little budget till the 2010,isn't the Pakistan now, sure isn't the Pakistan of 2018. A faster growing economy with a potential to be the top11th economy in years to come, requires a much stronger defense. Now there is money, and only time required for two more years to establish the system, strengthen it and get a few big project live or parts of those, live.


A LOT of new stuff is coming to Pakistan's all three forces. Just watch how it unfolds by 2018!!

although i am not an economist but our currency is being weak against dollar our export have fallen and in 2015 there was very little foreign investment in pakistan

 

[sady]

Pakistan's economic indicators do not look promising. I mean the 'real' ones not the cooked up ones. Pakistan's total dependence on CPEC is mind boggling. We have not worked on agriculture which could single handedly taken us up, no work on better irrigation techniques and no impetus on improving tax base and getting all those traders and industrialists to pay their taxes. We have no urgency in developing our human resources, no effort for education on emergency basis. All we are waiting for is Chinese to spoon feed us to brighter futures! What non sense!

 

[Mav3rick]

can you explain hoe pakistan defence budget will double in the space of just 2 years? also the "money" you haveis on high intrerest loans and would need to be serviced every year. and with exports falling and imports increasing it not looking so good for your country.

Falling oil prices mean a much lower import bill as oil is our heaviest import so hopefully it would become easier to make the repayments, if the Government doesn't continue to borrow more.....which it is still doing in leaps and bounds for God knows what purpose.

CPEC would also help and I am counting heavily on it since the Army and the Chinese Government are both heavily invested in it, both interest wise and also financially, now.

Also, the scourge of terrorism has largely been contained and will Inshallah not only be completely arrested, but eradicated by the end of this year which would in turn mean more foreign investment.

There is also the fact that Pakistan, with probably the most professional, disciplined and battle hardened Military throughout the Muslim world, enjoys a significant role in the defense of Saudi Arabia & UAE amongst other middle eastern Muslim countries, they would eventually be encouraged to invest more in Pakistan thereby not only ensuring protection of their own interested but also increasing the overall economy and stability of Pakistan.

With all the above, the overall 60+% human resources under the age of 35, would slowly but surely become more useful resources and will also in turn become more financially stable. The middle class would grow exponentially and the lower end of the spectrum would decrease at the same rate. The economy would grow and continue to grow.

It is an eventuality that can only be denied by another PPP(P) led Government or a tenure by the current Government under a Kayani like Army Chief!

 

[cloud4000]

Only that this time we have other options if Americans dont come through bcz finally it will mean the end of American defense monoply in Pakistan. Their contribution to our navy and army is already almost zero so i wont matter anymore. Americans have already realised that india is a better puppet for them so Pakistan will finally be rid of their wretched influence.

So you admit Pakistan was a US puppet?

USA has shown its true color once again so it's time to either buy Fighter Jets from Russia or China. J-10 B or C and SU-35 should come before J-31

Why is Pakistan relying on Russia? How are they they any more reliable than US? Russia has a deeper relation with India on defence matters. It will be interesting to see if these Su-35s show up. Pakistan is better of relying on China for its critical defence needs, it has already hooked its economic future to the country.

 

[deckingraj]

So you admit Pakistan was a US puppet?



Why is Pakistan relying on Russia? How are they they any more reliable than US? Russia has a deeper relation with India on defence matters. It will be interesting to see if these Su-35s show up. Pakistan is better of relying on China for its critical defence needs, it has already hooked its economic future to the country.

Actually Pakistan is better to rely on herself...there is no free lunch and similarly too much Chinese influence might not be good as well...remember Pakistan was a golden boy back in 50s and 60s for US..then comes AF war and it become honey again...bigger players will always maneuver you...more dependence means more maneuvering...

 

[danger007]

Only that this time we have other options if Americans dont come through bcz finally it will mean the end of American defense monoply in Pakistan. Their contribution to our navy and army is already almost zero so i wont matter anymore. Americans have already realised that india is a better puppet for them so Pakistan will finally be rid of their wretched influence.

a puppet sees everyone as puppet.... after being US lapdog for 6 decades.... its obvious for pak to think like that..... India is not like pakistan... never it was....

 

[Viper0011.]

With or without the F-16s, Pakistan will remain a regional game changer.

Wasn't this just open common sense? I didn't realize it required an American bashing article (well, bashing America has become a past time in Pakistan unfortunately).

But regardless, Pakistan's economy is growing. If similar policies of the current civilian government remain in place for the next ten years, Pakistan's economy is targeting to match that of Australia's. And she'll surpass everyone from number 2 to 11 in between.

Now when you have $ 18-20 billion a year to spend on defense (Pakistan will be around $ 15-18 billion by 2018), you can afford to buy pretty much anything. So with let's say 300 JFT Block II and III's, 80-100 F-16's, 60-80 FC-20 or J-11's and 20-40 J-31 (plus older F-7 PG's as point defense, etc), that's a force of almost 600 jets!!!! I think it can handle itself and can project power all across Pakistan to her extended EEZ.

Plus Pakistan can easily afford to have a contingent of 20-40 jets on rotational basis in anti-terror campaigns for that new force the GCC countries are creating to fight terrorist groups like shiity ISIS, etc.

So Pakistan already has regional implications as of today. The fact that her premier went to Iran and to KSA, to defuse tensions, speaks volumes as is.

Going forward, a civil system, a growing economy, political stability, elimination of terrorism and a modern society will ensure Pakistan's future as a regional power. The internals of the society have to work like Malaysia /Indonesia or Turkey, without intolerance and extremism. That's the key to success.

 

[My-Analogous]

Pic in OPs post says it's a USAF F-16!!! Lol!

So Pakistan designed, developed and produced a ' high-tech' modern combat aircraft? I thought the JF was designed and developed by China! Silly me!

Yes your user name show that

 

[Blue Marlin]

Falling oil prices mean a much lower import bill as oil is our heaviest import so hopefully it would become easier to make the repayments, if the Government doesn't continue to borrow more.....which it is still doing in leaps and bounds for God knows what purpose.

CPEC would also help and I am counting heavily on it since the Army and the Chinese Government are both heavily invested in it, both interest wise and also financially, now.

Also, the scourge of terrorism has largely been contained and will Inshallah not only be completely arrested, but eradicated by the end of this year which would in turn mean more foreign investment.

There is also the fact that Pakistan, with probably the most professional, disciplined and battle hardened Military throughout the Muslim world, enjoys a significant role in the defense of Saudi Arabia & UAE amongst other middle eastern Muslim countries, they would eventually be encouraged to invest more in Pakistan thereby not only ensuring protection of their own interested but also increasing the overall economy and stability of Pakistan.

With all the above, the overall 60+% human resources under the age of 35, would slowly but surely become more useful resources and will also in turn become more financially stable. The middle class would grow exponentially and the lower end of the spectrum would decrease at the same rate. The economy would grow and continue to grow.

It is an eventuality that can only be denied by another PPP(P) led Government or a tenure by the current Government under a Kayani like Army Chief!

yes the price of oil/gas/lpg is very low and getting lower but that can not cmpensate for falling exports and incrreasing imports.
explain how how a battel hardened country is going to turn the economy around?
dont forget to polliticains who only care about money and not so much of theri own country.
and which countries would give them asylum if it goes ugly.
some countries are made to be ruled by democracy, pakistan is made to be ruled by a non demographic govenrment.
pakistan needs a party that corvertly controlled by the army and it should then focus on dismantleing other parties so their rule is gurantied and it would be long. like russia and kazahstan.

 

[django]

Are the eight F-16s being procured or at least attempting to be procured of the block-60 variety.

 

[Lucky Breeze]

My mind doesn't believe all this, but my heart accept every thing what ever positive, people say about my homeland. I don't know due to illusions or hope.

 

[Pandora]

a puppet sees everyone as puppet.... after being US lapdog for 6 decades.... its obvious for pak to think like that..... India is not like pakistan... never it was....

We extorted them for weapons which worked for us. Pakistani public unlike indian public has no love for Americans so you better make preperations to serve them well for decades to come. India will be known as just another servant state of US. It is just so sad tha even with such a massive military still people welcome slavery in modern form. Have a look at history and you will understand what they want from u in future. You will be their canon fodders against china.

 

[MastanKhan]

Ignore him ... he have just copied the post and pasted it ..... i remember this post was written by @Viper0011. in another thread .... i think original writer can explain not this guy .... he is just a fan boy

Hi,

Almost every writer in pakistan is copying from our web site---.

 

[Pandora]

So you admit Pakistan was a US puppet?



Why is Pakistan relying on Russia? How are they they any more reliable than US? Russia has a deeper relation with India on defence matters. It will be interesting to see if these Su-35s show up. Pakistan is better of relying on China for its critical defence needs, it has already hooked its economic future to the country.

For them we were obviously but for us you can go ask them now. Even Americans admit that Pakistanis two timed them big time and lied to them to get weapons and financial Aid. We kept worlds super power running around in circle for a decade. If they had settled down in Afghanistan then Pakistan would be their next target. Pakistan has sight setup on J 31 not Su 35. Su 35 is like a giant honking target with massive cross section. J31 fits into our policy and is also on offer.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Its All about Pro US lobby in PAF .. those fat belly corrupt Generals will literally beg for F-16's , instead of getting a Fighter from Russia or China with dignity ..
these Gen need a good spanking ..

I will spank the females OK? no seriously
the USA stuff is good , hate it or love it but its lights years ahead of Chinese stuff and Russian equivalent stuff is see but dont touch situation.. so there we are back at spanking. did any female Officers make it to generals yet?