Yesterday Wisconsin decides who gets a 10-year term on its Supreme Court Brad Schimel, the conservative Waukesha County judge and ex-Attorney General, or Susan Crawford, the liberal Dane County judge with a history of fighting for progressive causes. This isn’t just some sleepy judicial race; it’s a brawl for control of the court, which sits at a 4-3 liberal majority as of now. Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, a liberal stalwart, is retiring July 31, so this seat’s the tipping point Crawford keeps it 4-3 left, Schimel flips it 4-3 right. X is buzzing folks are calling it everything from a “Trump litmus test” to a “battle for democracy” and I’m hooked on the stakes.
Why’s it matter? This court’s the final word on Wisconsin’s big fights abortion, redistricting, unions, voting rules. Last year, the liberal majority axed GOP-drawn maps, and they’re gearing up to tackle a 175-year-old abortion ban and Act 10, that 2011 law gutting public unions. A Schimel win could slam the brakes on all that; a Crawford win locks it in for at least a year ‘til the next election in 2026. It’s a swing state slugfest Trump won here by 30,000 votes last November and this race is the first big test of how folks feel about his second term, not even 100 days in.
The Players: Schimel and Crawford Unpacked
Brad Schimel’s a familiar face Wisconsin AG from 2015 to 2019, Waukesha DA before that, now a circuit judge since Scott Walker hooked him up in 2019. He’s a law-and-order guy pals with sheriffs, backed by the Milwaukee Police Association, and he’s got Trump and Elon Musk in his corner. He’s been hammering a “restore objectivity” line says the court’s gone rogue with “activist” liberals like Janet Protasiewicz, who won big in 2023. His record’s got teeth: he fought to kill Obamacare, defended voter ID and Act 10, and took GOP redistricting maps to the U.S. Supreme Court. X posts paint him as Trump’s bulldog “MAGA’s man to stop the woke agenda” and he’s leaned into it, posing with a giant Trump inflatable and rocking a MAGA hat at rallies.
Susan Crawford’s the flip side Dane County judge since 2018, ex-assistant AG under Jim Doyle, and a Planned Parenthood lawyer who’s battled for abortion rights and unions. She’s got the liberal justices Bradley, Dallet, Karofsky, Protasiewicz plus Tammy Baldwin and the Wisconsin AFL-CIO cheering her on. Her pitch? “Fairness over politics” she’s been slamming Schimel as “Elon’s puppet” and a threat to rights. X posts call her “the people’s judge,” tying her to 2023’s abortion-driven turnout surge. She’s less known—58% of voters didn’t know her in February’s Marquette poll but she’s got a knack for rallying the base, hitting Musk hard and promising to keep the court “impartial.”
The Money: A $100 Million Slugfest
This race is a cash volcano over $100 million spent, smashing the 2023 record of $56 million, per the Brennan Center. Schimel’s crew him plus outside groups dropped $46 million; Crawford’s camp hit $36 million, with more trickling in late. Elon Musk’s the big spender his America PAC and Building America’s Future poured $20 million into Schimel, with ads screaming “Crawford stops Trump’s agenda” and $2 million more funneled through the Wisconsin GOP. He even handed out $1 million checks at a Green Bay rally March 30 shady, but the court nixed a challenge. Trump’s eldest, Don Jr., stumped with him too, tying it to Dad’s “Make America Safe Again” vibe.
Crawford’s not broke either $25 million raised, $5.5 million from the state Dems since February, boosted by George Soros ($1 million) and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker ($500,000). Her ads? “Don’t let Elon buy the court” billboards with Musk as a puppeteer. The Dems’ “People v. Musk” campaign went seven figures, and Barack Obama dropped an endorsement yesterday. X posts like ones from @briantylercohen call it the “priciest judicial race ever,” and it’s true Wisconsin’s a money pit because its divided government (Dem governor, GOP legislature) kicks everything to the courts.
The Campaign: Mud, Turnout, and Musk
This wasn’t a clean fight. Schimel’s ads hit Crawford as “soft on crime” dug up her defense work, painted her as a Soros stooge. He’s played the Trump card hard rallies with MAGA hats, promises to “end the madness” of liberal rulings. But he’s tripped too March 19, he floated “bags of ballots” fraud talk on WISN-AM about Milwaukee’s late counts, echoing 2020 gripes. He backpedaled “I’ll accept results” but X posts pounced, calling it a dog whistle. Crawford’s team fired back: “Conspiracy theories from Elon Schimel,” per her spokesman Derrick Honeyman.
Crawford’s game was fear and turnout “rights under attack,” she said at a Madison rally March 31 with abortion advocate Amanda Zurawski. She tied Schimel to Musk and Trump, hammering his Obamacare fight and Act 10 love. Her debate zinger March 12 “Elon Schimel’s buying this race” stuck, and X ran with it. She leaned on 2023’s playbook abortion drove 41% turnout then and early voting’s up 57% from that, with 644,800 ballots by March 30, per the Wisconsin Elections Commission. Milwaukee and Dane (Dem strongholds) lead, but Waukesha’s up too Schimel’s backyard.
Musk’s the X factor $20 million, plus a Green Bay push March 30: “This is about civilization’s future.” Dems flipped it Tim Walz hit an anti-Musk town hall, billboards screamed “Don’t let Elon win.” Schimel shrugged it off “I don’t control outside cash” but it’s a lightning rod. X posts like @EricLDaugh’s say it’s close, and turnout’s the key.
The Polls: A Coin Toss ‘Til the End
Polls? All over the place. February’s Marquette had 38% unsure on Schimel, 58% on Crawford voters didn’t know ‘em. By March 25-26, SoCal Strategies gave Crawford 50-42; AtlasIntel’s March 27-31 poll had her at 53-46. But OnMessage/WMC’s March 9-10 tied it at 47-47, and Trafalgar’s March 28-30 was 51-49 Crawford margins tight as hell, all within error. X posts like @PollTracker2024’s showed swings, but early voting leaned Crawford (66-34 absentee, per AtlasIntel). Schimel edged in-person early (52-48). Too close to call turnout’s the decider.
The Issues: Abortion, Unions, and Beyond
What’s riding on this? Abortion’s huge a case on the 1849 ban’s coming, and Crawford’s pro-choice past (Planned Parenthood) vs. Schimel’s “valid law” stance (he’s softened it) splits ‘em hard. Act 10’s next unions for 200,000 public workers hang in the balance; Schimel backs it, Crawford’s fought it. Redistricting’s simmering GOP maps got tossed, new ones could shift Congress. Voting rules too voter ID, drop boxes, early voting limits Schimel’s for ‘em, Crawford’s not. X posts like @MattZimmerman26’s say it’s “cheating vs. law,” but it’s deeper: ideology’s at war.
My Gut: A Nail-Biter with Big Echoes
As polls close, I’m glued 7:51 PM EDT, results are trickling. Milwaukee’s late absentee dump could swing it like 2020; Waukesha’s early surge might save Schimel. I’d bet Crawford’s got a nose ahead abortion and Musk backlash might juice Dems like ‘23 but Schimel’s Trump tailwind and rural turnout could flip it. X sentiment’s wild half see a liberal hold, half a MAGA coup. Either way, it’s razor-thin maybe 20,000 votes and a national signal: Trump’s shine holding, or Dems clawing back?
This ain’t just Wisconsin it’s a preview. Midterms loom, and this court’ll shape the state ‘til 2026. Crawford wins, liberals lock it; Schimel does, conservatives get a shaky 4-3 with Brian Hagedorn as a wild card. What do you think turnout trumps all, or cash buys it? I’m leaning turnout, but damn, it’s close.
Why’s it matter? This court’s the final word on Wisconsin’s big fights abortion, redistricting, unions, voting rules. Last year, the liberal majority axed GOP-drawn maps, and they’re gearing up to tackle a 175-year-old abortion ban and Act 10, that 2011 law gutting public unions. A Schimel win could slam the brakes on all that; a Crawford win locks it in for at least a year ‘til the next election in 2026. It’s a swing state slugfest Trump won here by 30,000 votes last November and this race is the first big test of how folks feel about his second term, not even 100 days in.
The Players: Schimel and Crawford Unpacked
Brad Schimel’s a familiar face Wisconsin AG from 2015 to 2019, Waukesha DA before that, now a circuit judge since Scott Walker hooked him up in 2019. He’s a law-and-order guy pals with sheriffs, backed by the Milwaukee Police Association, and he’s got Trump and Elon Musk in his corner. He’s been hammering a “restore objectivity” line says the court’s gone rogue with “activist” liberals like Janet Protasiewicz, who won big in 2023. His record’s got teeth: he fought to kill Obamacare, defended voter ID and Act 10, and took GOP redistricting maps to the U.S. Supreme Court. X posts paint him as Trump’s bulldog “MAGA’s man to stop the woke agenda” and he’s leaned into it, posing with a giant Trump inflatable and rocking a MAGA hat at rallies.
Susan Crawford’s the flip side Dane County judge since 2018, ex-assistant AG under Jim Doyle, and a Planned Parenthood lawyer who’s battled for abortion rights and unions. She’s got the liberal justices Bradley, Dallet, Karofsky, Protasiewicz plus Tammy Baldwin and the Wisconsin AFL-CIO cheering her on. Her pitch? “Fairness over politics” she’s been slamming Schimel as “Elon’s puppet” and a threat to rights. X posts call her “the people’s judge,” tying her to 2023’s abortion-driven turnout surge. She’s less known—58% of voters didn’t know her in February’s Marquette poll but she’s got a knack for rallying the base, hitting Musk hard and promising to keep the court “impartial.”
The Money: A $100 Million Slugfest
This race is a cash volcano over $100 million spent, smashing the 2023 record of $56 million, per the Brennan Center. Schimel’s crew him plus outside groups dropped $46 million; Crawford’s camp hit $36 million, with more trickling in late. Elon Musk’s the big spender his America PAC and Building America’s Future poured $20 million into Schimel, with ads screaming “Crawford stops Trump’s agenda” and $2 million more funneled through the Wisconsin GOP. He even handed out $1 million checks at a Green Bay rally March 30 shady, but the court nixed a challenge. Trump’s eldest, Don Jr., stumped with him too, tying it to Dad’s “Make America Safe Again” vibe.
Crawford’s not broke either $25 million raised, $5.5 million from the state Dems since February, boosted by George Soros ($1 million) and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker ($500,000). Her ads? “Don’t let Elon buy the court” billboards with Musk as a puppeteer. The Dems’ “People v. Musk” campaign went seven figures, and Barack Obama dropped an endorsement yesterday. X posts like ones from @briantylercohen call it the “priciest judicial race ever,” and it’s true Wisconsin’s a money pit because its divided government (Dem governor, GOP legislature) kicks everything to the courts.
The Campaign: Mud, Turnout, and Musk
This wasn’t a clean fight. Schimel’s ads hit Crawford as “soft on crime” dug up her defense work, painted her as a Soros stooge. He’s played the Trump card hard rallies with MAGA hats, promises to “end the madness” of liberal rulings. But he’s tripped too March 19, he floated “bags of ballots” fraud talk on WISN-AM about Milwaukee’s late counts, echoing 2020 gripes. He backpedaled “I’ll accept results” but X posts pounced, calling it a dog whistle. Crawford’s team fired back: “Conspiracy theories from Elon Schimel,” per her spokesman Derrick Honeyman.
Crawford’s game was fear and turnout “rights under attack,” she said at a Madison rally March 31 with abortion advocate Amanda Zurawski. She tied Schimel to Musk and Trump, hammering his Obamacare fight and Act 10 love. Her debate zinger March 12 “Elon Schimel’s buying this race” stuck, and X ran with it. She leaned on 2023’s playbook abortion drove 41% turnout then and early voting’s up 57% from that, with 644,800 ballots by March 30, per the Wisconsin Elections Commission. Milwaukee and Dane (Dem strongholds) lead, but Waukesha’s up too Schimel’s backyard.
Musk’s the X factor $20 million, plus a Green Bay push March 30: “This is about civilization’s future.” Dems flipped it Tim Walz hit an anti-Musk town hall, billboards screamed “Don’t let Elon win.” Schimel shrugged it off “I don’t control outside cash” but it’s a lightning rod. X posts like @EricLDaugh’s say it’s close, and turnout’s the key.
The Polls: A Coin Toss ‘Til the End
Polls? All over the place. February’s Marquette had 38% unsure on Schimel, 58% on Crawford voters didn’t know ‘em. By March 25-26, SoCal Strategies gave Crawford 50-42; AtlasIntel’s March 27-31 poll had her at 53-46. But OnMessage/WMC’s March 9-10 tied it at 47-47, and Trafalgar’s March 28-30 was 51-49 Crawford margins tight as hell, all within error. X posts like @PollTracker2024’s showed swings, but early voting leaned Crawford (66-34 absentee, per AtlasIntel). Schimel edged in-person early (52-48). Too close to call turnout’s the decider.
The Issues: Abortion, Unions, and Beyond
What’s riding on this? Abortion’s huge a case on the 1849 ban’s coming, and Crawford’s pro-choice past (Planned Parenthood) vs. Schimel’s “valid law” stance (he’s softened it) splits ‘em hard. Act 10’s next unions for 200,000 public workers hang in the balance; Schimel backs it, Crawford’s fought it. Redistricting’s simmering GOP maps got tossed, new ones could shift Congress. Voting rules too voter ID, drop boxes, early voting limits Schimel’s for ‘em, Crawford’s not. X posts like @MattZimmerman26’s say it’s “cheating vs. law,” but it’s deeper: ideology’s at war.
My Gut: A Nail-Biter with Big Echoes
As polls close, I’m glued 7:51 PM EDT, results are trickling. Milwaukee’s late absentee dump could swing it like 2020; Waukesha’s early surge might save Schimel. I’d bet Crawford’s got a nose ahead abortion and Musk backlash might juice Dems like ‘23 but Schimel’s Trump tailwind and rural turnout could flip it. X sentiment’s wild half see a liberal hold, half a MAGA coup. Either way, it’s razor-thin maybe 20,000 votes and a national signal: Trump’s shine holding, or Dems clawing back?
This ain’t just Wisconsin it’s a preview. Midterms loom, and this court’ll shape the state ‘til 2026. Crawford wins, liberals lock it; Schimel does, conservatives get a shaky 4-3 with Brian Hagedorn as a wild card. What do you think turnout trumps all, or cash buys it? I’m leaning turnout, but damn, it’s close.
