Haq's Musings: Will "Final Chance" Talks with Pakistani Taliban Succeed?
"I am sure the whole nation would be behind the government if and when we launch a military operation against the terrorists - but I want to give peace a final chance," Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told members of Pakistan's parliament in a televised speech on January 29, 2014.
So why did Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif decide to make the "final chance" offer of talks to the TTP just when it seemed his government was ready to launch a military operation to root out the Pakistani Taliban? Let's explore the answer this question in some detail.
Poll Numbers on TTP:
While the number of Pakistanis who support the Taliban is very small and shrinking, there are still significant numbers of people who are opposed to using military force against them.
Pew Poll May 2013
The most recent poll data on this issue is from a Pew Poll conducted in May 2013. It showed that only 17% of respondents said they have a favorable view of the TTP while 56% have an unfavorable view of them. However, only 35% of the people support the use of military force against them while 29% oppose it.
Chances of Talks Success:
There is a very slim chance of success of Pakistan's talks with the TTP. Why? Because there have been several failed attempts earlier to bring peace through talks with the them.
First such agreements was concluded between Nek Mohammad and Pakistani military inShakai Valley in 2004. Both sides agreed to peace with the understanding that the Taliban will not host foreign fighters and they will not attack Pakistani military or civilians. In return, the government offered compensation to the families of those killed, pay off TTP's debts to Al Qaeda and release Taliban prisoners. While the government held to its part of the bargain, the Taliban did not. The deal broke down almost immediately; Mohammed claimed he never agreed to identify or hand over any Al Qaeda militants and the Taliban began killing tribal elders who helped broker the agreement.
Shakai Valley deal was followed by peace agreements at Sararogha in 2005 and then Swat in 2009. Both of these deals also failed because of the Taliban non-compliance. The TTP intensified violence against civilians after each of these details.
Talks Are a PR Exercise:
Both the Pakistani Taliban and the government see talks as an opportunity to gain support of the fence-sitters, those who dislike the Taliban but are unwilling to support military action against them.
The Taliban will try and show their willingness to talk to get "Shariah" implemented "peacefully" in Pakistan. Their aim will be strengthen the resolve of those who support them to bring "Shariah" while swaying the fence-sitter to join their side.
Taliban "Shariah" is fake. Say No to Taliban "Shariah"
Pakistani government needs to demonstrate to the fence-sitters that it, too, wants to give peace a chance before resorting to military force as a last resort. The government must also persuade people that the Taliban "Shariah" has nothing to do with the real Shariah of Prophet Muhammad (SAW) who came as a blessing for the entire world (Rematul lil Alameen). Far from being a blessing to the world, the Taliban are a curse on humanity. They are simply using the talk of "Shariah" as a Trojan horse to win power for themselves. Pakistani leaders need to remind the people of what the Taliban did in Swat in 2009 after agreeing to peace in the name of "Nizam-e-Adl" when they tortured and killed large numbers innocent civilians and bombed girls' schools. The people need to be repeatedly shown the death and destruction of tens of thousands of lives wrought by the Taliban in all parts of the country over the last decade.
Summary:
If history is an guide, the chances of success of the current peace talks between Pakistan government and the Taliban are slim to none. While it would be great to be proved wrong, I think it's time for Pakistani government and the people to prepare for a long, sustained campaign to rid the country of the TTP terrorists. If Pakistan fails to defeat the Taliban, they will destroy Pakistan.
Here's a video discussion on the subject of Pakistan-TTP Talks:
Haq's Musings: Will "Final Chance" Talks with Pakistani Taliban Succeed?
"I am sure the whole nation would be behind the government if and when we launch a military operation against the terrorists - but I want to give peace a final chance," Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told members of Pakistan's parliament in a televised speech on January 29, 2014.
So why did Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif decide to make the "final chance" offer of talks to the TTP just when it seemed his government was ready to launch a military operation to root out the Pakistani Taliban? Let's explore the answer this question in some detail.
Poll Numbers on TTP:
While the number of Pakistanis who support the Taliban is very small and shrinking, there are still significant numbers of people who are opposed to using military force against them.
Pew Poll May 2013
The most recent poll data on this issue is from a Pew Poll conducted in May 2013. It showed that only 17% of respondents said they have a favorable view of the TTP while 56% have an unfavorable view of them. However, only 35% of the people support the use of military force against them while 29% oppose it.
Chances of Talks Success:
There is a very slim chance of success of Pakistan's talks with the TTP. Why? Because there have been several failed attempts earlier to bring peace through talks with the them.
First such agreements was concluded between Nek Mohammad and Pakistani military inShakai Valley in 2004. Both sides agreed to peace with the understanding that the Taliban will not host foreign fighters and they will not attack Pakistani military or civilians. In return, the government offered compensation to the families of those killed, pay off TTP's debts to Al Qaeda and release Taliban prisoners. While the government held to its part of the bargain, the Taliban did not. The deal broke down almost immediately; Mohammed claimed he never agreed to identify or hand over any Al Qaeda militants and the Taliban began killing tribal elders who helped broker the agreement.
Shakai Valley deal was followed by peace agreements at Sararogha in 2005 and then Swat in 2009. Both of these deals also failed because of the Taliban non-compliance. The TTP intensified violence against civilians after each of these details.
Talks Are a PR Exercise:
Both the Pakistani Taliban and the government see talks as an opportunity to gain support of the fence-sitters, those who dislike the Taliban but are unwilling to support military action against them.
The Taliban will try and show their willingness to talk to get "Shariah" implemented "peacefully" in Pakistan. Their aim will be strengthen the resolve of those who support them to bring "Shariah" while swaying the fence-sitter to join their side.
Taliban "Shariah" is fake. Say No to Taliban "Shariah"
Pakistani government needs to demonstrate to the fence-sitters that it, too, wants to give peace a chance before resorting to military force as a last resort. The government must also persuade people that the Taliban "Shariah" has nothing to do with the real Shariah of Prophet Muhammad (SAW) who came as a blessing for the entire world (Rematul lil Alameen). Far from being a blessing to the world, the Taliban are a curse on humanity. They are simply using the talk of "Shariah" as a Trojan horse to win power for themselves. Pakistani leaders need to remind the people of what the Taliban did in Swat in 2009 after agreeing to peace in the name of "Nizam-e-Adl" when they tortured and killed large numbers innocent civilians and bombed girls' schools. The people need to be repeatedly shown the death and destruction of tens of thousands of lives wrought by the Taliban in all parts of the country over the last decade.
Summary:
If history is an guide, the chances of success of the current peace talks between Pakistan government and the Taliban are slim to none. While it would be great to be proved wrong, I think it's time for Pakistani government and the people to prepare for a long, sustained campaign to rid the country of the TTP terrorists. If Pakistan fails to defeat the Taliban, they will destroy Pakistan.
Here's a video discussion on the subject of Pakistan-TTP Talks:
Haq's Musings: Will "Final Chance" Talks with Pakistani Taliban Succeed?
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