Will China Dominate India?

[RiazHaq]

A 2005 study by US General Accounting Office (GAO) found that Indian government's figures for software and technology exports to the United States were 20 times higher than the US figures for import of the same from India.

U.S. General Accounting Office looked at the 2003 data showing the United States reported $420 million in unaffiliated imports of BPT (business, professional, and technical) services from India, while India reported approximately $8.7 billion in exports of affiliated and unaffiliated BPT services to the United States.


US-India IT Trade Discrepancy Source: GAO
The GAO found at least five definitional and methodological factors that contribute to the difference between U.S. and Indian data on BPT services. First, India and the United States follow different practices in accounting for the earnings of temporary Indian workers residing in the United States. Second, India defines certain services, such as software embedded on computer hardware, differently than the United States. Third, India and the United States follow different practices for counting sales by India to U.S.-owned firms located outside of the United States. The United States follows International Monetary Fund standards for each of these factors. Fourth, BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) does not report country-specific data for particular types of services due to concerns about the quality of responses it receives from firms when they allocate their affiliated imports to detailed types of services. As a result, U.S. data on BPT services include only unaffiliated imports from India, while Indian data include both affiliated and unaffiliated exports. Fifth, other differences, such as identifying all services importers, may also contribute to the data gap.

In theory, India follows what is known as BPM 6 (MSITS) reporting method for software and information-enabled technology services (ITES) which counts sales to all multinationals, earning of overseas offices, salaries of non-immigrant overseas workers as India's exports. In practice, India violates it. BPM 6 allows the salaries of first year ofmigrant workers to be included in a country's service exports. India continuously and cumulatively adds all the earnings of its migrants to US in its software exports. If 50,000 Indians migrate on H1B visas each year, and they each earn $50,000 a year, that's a $2.5 billion addition to their exports each year. Cumulatively over 10 years, this would be $25 billion in exports year after year and growing.

There has neither been any acknowledgement nor any correction of the Indian government's methodology for reporting software and IT services exports since the GAO report was published in 2005. This raises serious questions about the accuracy of India's claims of $60 billion to $70 billion IT software and service exports being currently reported. If the 20X exaggeration still persists, the Indian IT exports could be as little as $3 billion to $4 billion today based on the US methodology.

Haq's Musings: India's IT Exports Figures Highly Exaggerated

 

[dray]

Did you read that article you posted?

Importing vast amounts of capital goods has badly hurt India's domestic capital goods manufacturing, which is understandable. However it also cut India's growth in industrial production by over half, which doesn't make sense, as the article pointed out.

And India's trade deficit to China is only hitting new record highs on a regular basis.

Has anything changed? Has Modi made any mention of of reversing the tax-cut on capital goods import? I did a quick search and Indian media is reporting that the tax-cut on capital goods is actually being extended?

Yes, I have read the article that I have posted and also many others, what our previous govt. was doing wrong was to not prioritizing what we need to import and what we can produce or already producing on our own, so, govt. tax-cuts ended-up helping foreign businesses that were in direct competition to our indigenous industries, that was a major blow to our own industry.

Add to that, our previous govt. made all possible efforts to make the business environment for manufacturing industries awfully difficult, check this: How they killed our factories

You can see a concrete effort to change all that now, and you can expect some major visible changes in next 3-4 years.

Also, there is a possibility that we will eventually stop all non-essential imports (like toys, stationary items, ordinary electrical goods, etc.) in favour of our own industry.

 

[rockstar08]

china already dominate them ... indians can cry as much as they want ... but realty is they cant do sh!t about china ...

 

[dray]

A 2005 study by US General Accounting Office (GAO) found that Indian government's figures for software and technology exports to the United States were 20 times higher than the US figures for import of the same from India.

U.S. General Accounting Office looked at the 2003 data showing the United States reported $420 million in unaffiliated imports of BPT (business, professional, and technical) services from India, while India reported approximately $8.7 billion in exports of affiliated and unaffiliated BPT services to the United States.

View attachment 71179
US-India IT Trade Discrepancy Source: GAO
The GAO found at least five definitional and methodological factors that contribute to the difference between U.S. and Indian data on BPT services. First, India and the United States follow different practices in accounting for the earnings of temporary Indian workers residing in the United States. Second, India defines certain services, such as software embedded on computer hardware, differently than the United States. Third, India and the United States follow different practices for counting sales by India to U.S.-owned firms located outside of the United States. The United States follows International Monetary Fund standards for each of these factors. Fourth, BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) does not report country-specific data for particular types of services due to concerns about the quality of responses it receives from firms when they allocate their affiliated imports to detailed types of services. As a result, U.S. data on BPT services include only unaffiliated imports from India, while Indian data include both affiliated and unaffiliated exports. Fifth, other differences, such as identifying all services importers, may also contribute to the data gap.

In theory, India follows what is known as BPM 6 (MSITS) reporting method for software and information-enabled technology services (ITES) which counts sales to all multinationals, earning of overseas offices, salaries of non-immigrant overseas workers as India's exports. In practice, India violates it. BPM 6 allows the salaries of first year ofmigrant workers to be included in a country's service exports. India continuously and cumulatively adds all the earnings of its migrants to US in its software exports. If 50,000 Indians migrate on H1B visas each year, and they each earn $50,000 a year, that's a $2.5 billion addition to their exports each year. Cumulatively over 10 years, this would be $25 billion in exports year after year and growing.

There has neither been any acknowledgement nor any correction of the Indian government's methodology for reporting software and IT services exports since the GAO report was published in 2005. This raises serious questions about the accuracy of India's claims of $60 billion to $70 billion IT software and service exports being currently reported. If the 20X exaggeration still persists,

Haq's Musings: India's IT Exports Figures Highly Exaggerated

First, the chart you are proudly showing is a 2002-2003, as written on it!!

Second:

the Indian IT exports could be as little as $3 billion to $4 billion today based on the US methodology.

Rs.1 billion= Rs.100 crore
$1 billion= Rs.6000 crore (as of now)
$3 billion to $4 billion= Rs.18000 crore to Rs.24000 crore
So, this is our total export of IT & ITES?

Now, annual revenue of:
TCS: $13.44 billion (300,000+ employees)
Infosys: $6.4 billion (160,000+ employees)
Wipro: $7.3 billion (146,000+ employees)

Almost all incomes are from exports, and there are countless other Indian companies exporting IT & ITES services.
You can check this link in case if you are willing to write more informed blogs in future:

http://www.nasscom.in/sites/default/files/NASSCOM Annual Report 2013-14.pdf

Please don't take this post seriously if its going to disturb your sleep, that was not my purpose.

 

[RiazHaq]

First, the chart you are proudly showing is a 2002-2003, as written on it!!

Second:


Rs.1 billion= Rs.100 crore
$1 billion= Rs.6000 crore (as of now)
$3 billion to $4 billion= Rs.18000 crore to Rs.24000 crore
So, this is our total export of IT & ITES?

Now, annual revenue of:
TCS: $13.44 billion (300,000+ employees)
Infosys: $6.4 billion (160,000+ employees)
Wipro: $7.3 billion (146,000+ employees)

Almost all incomes are from exports, and there are countless other Indian companies exporting IT & ITES services.
You can check this link in case if you are willing to write more informed blogs in future:

http://www.nasscom.in/sites/default/files/NASSCOM Annual Report 2013-14.pdf

Please don't take this post seriously if its going to disturb your sleep, that was not my purpose.

These companies sell services, not products.

These service are mostly rendered by Indian H1-B workers whose salaries are being counted year-after-year, not just the first year, as India's IT exports.

In theory, India follows what is known as BPM 6 (MSITS) reporting method for software and information-enabled technology services (ITES) which counts sales to all multinationals, earning of overseas offices, salaries of non-immigrant overseas workers as India's exports. In practice, India violates it. BPM 6 allows the salaries of first year ofmigrant workers to be included in a country's service exports. India continuously and cumulatively adds all the earnings of its migrants to US in its software exports. If 50,000 Indians migrate on H1B visas each year, and they each earn $50,000 a year, that's a $2.5 billion addition to their exports each year. Cumulatively over 10 years, this would be $25 billion in exports year after year and growing.

 

[dray]

These companies sell services, not products.

What the hell !!! Their product is their services!!! And they develop customized solutions for their customers, not off-the-shelf products.

These service are mostly rendered by Indian H1-B workers whose salaries are being counted year-after-year, not just the first year, as India's IT exports.

In theory, India follows what is known as BPM 6 (MSITS) reporting method for software and information-enabled technology services (ITES) which counts sales to all multinationals, earning of overseas offices, salaries of non-immigrant overseas workers as India's exports. In practice, India violates it. BPM 6 allows the salaries of first year ofmigrant workers to be included in a country's service exports. India continuously and cumulatively adds all the earnings of its migrants to US in its software exports. If 50,000 Indians migrate on H1B visas each year, and they each earn $50,000 a year, that's a $2.5 billion addition to their exports each year. Cumulatively over 10 years, this would be $25 billion in exports year after year and growing.

Who told you that salaries are counted to derive at exports figure? You don't know accounting, right? We count the revenue earned by the company through sales, salary is part of the cost. Post a "Credible" source for what you are claiming.

 

[MokshaVimukthi]

U.S is 8,500 miles away from India, and China is right at your door, but I still don't think China will dominate India.
it might have some leverage, but India won't become a vassal state of the neo imperialist.

Din't stop the US from trying and failing.

 

[RiazHaq]

What the hell !!! Their product is their services!!! And they develop customized solutions for their customers, not off-the-shelf products.



Who told you that salaries are counted to derive at exports figure? You don't know accounting, right? We count the revenue earned by the company through sales, salary is part of the cost. Post a "Credible" source for what you are claiming.

It's you who doesn't understand BOP calculation methods. US GAO has proved that India's method s wrong and results in 20X exaggeration.

Haq's Musings: India's IT Exports Figures Highly Exaggerated

 

[temporary handle]

It's you who doesn't understand BOP calculation methods. US GAO has proved that India's method s wrong and results in 20X exaggeration.

View attachment 73589

Haq's Musings: India's IT Exports Figures Highly Exaggerated

If you look at the tables carefully, you could see that these tables are for affiliated imports into USA versus affiliated + unaffiliated exports from India to US.

I was intrigued by 2000% difference in data and since i do not know meaning of affiliated and unaffiliated imports, i googled it and found explanation from US department of Commerce's Bureaue of Analaysis which explains this disceprency.

A GAO study showed that U.S. data on offshoring of services
to India are more than 20 times smaller than India’s data.
What’s the story?

 

[dray]

It's you who doesn't understand BOP calculation methods. US GAO has proved that India's method s wrong and results in 20X exaggeration.

View attachment 73589

Haq's Musings: India's IT Exports Figures Highly Exaggerated

You are just repeating yourself and quoting the same blog of yours, that I am not interested to visit ti increase your hits. Come up with something concrete, something credible, we know the real size of our IT industry.

First check the dates of the chart, rest I will tell you later.

If you look at the tables carefully, you could see that these tables are for affiliated imports into USA versus affiliated + unaffiliated exports from India to US.

I was intrigued by 2000% difference in data and since i do not know meaning of affiliated and unaffiliated imports, i googled it and found explanation from US department of Commerce's Bureaue of Analaysis which explains this disceprency.

A GAO study showed that U.S. data on offshoring of services
to India are more than 20 times smaller than India’s data.
What’s the story?

 

[Mugwop]

Problem is not with me. It is with you which needs to be checked.Yes it is very much true that you are on rampage here issuing negative ranking. Do not vent out your personal life frustration on this forum.

No the problem is with you not me.Real Frustrated people like you can't mind their own business and like go off-topic and derail threads here. It's the moderators job to check me not yours and as long as I didn't give you a negative rating we got nothing to talk about. So stay away from me.

defence.pk/threads/pakistans-growing-human-capital.238141/

World Bank Reports Pakistani Kids Outperform Indian Kids in Math

Pakistan Surges Ahead of India in Mobile Money Revolution

Indian Textbooks: Suez Canal is "Sewage Canal"; Africans are "N*****s"

World Bank: India Has World's Largest Population of Poor

Why Are Poverty Rates in Pakistan Lower Than India, Bangladesh?

An Indian Farmer Commits Suicide Every 30 Minutes



India's IT Exports to US Wildly Exaggerated

Pakistan Outranks China and India on UN Happiness Score

few gems .. created by haq with his blog reference. .. he just want to show Pakistan glorious. . and India is in bad situation. . meaningless threads in defence forum...

You know alot of data accumulated in these links are from a indian source just like in this thread. Since you responded to me in a nice way.I'll take off the negative rating. I don't wanna be further dragged more into this thread.

 

[Asian.Century]

Haq's Musings: Does China Seek to Dominate India, Africa and Latin America?

A new study shows that China is now India's top trading partner, edging out the United Arab Emirates—India’s previous top trading partner—and is comfortably ahead of the US and Saudi Arabia. India-China annual trade volume now adds up to about $70 billion, and India is running a massive $40 billion trade deficit with China. China exports high-value, high-tech machines to India while India exports low-value commodities to China.

Chinese Infrastructure Loans to India:

China's state-owned banks are financing huge infrastructure projects in Africa and India to boost Chinese exports. Leading the effort are China's ExIm Bank, China Development Bank and China Industrial Commercial Bank. Major multi-billion dollar projects being signed by Chinese President Xi Jineng, currently visiting India, and Prime Minister Modi will be financed by loans from one or more of the state-owned Chinese banks.

View attachment 65432


Chinese Infrastructure Project Financing in Pakistan:

China is also pursuing strategic Pakistan-China economic corridor which includes several large infrastructure projects worth tens of billions of US dollars connecting China with the Arabian Sea through Pakistan. These projects will be financed by China's ExIm Bank and other state-owned banks.

In a report last year, China's State-owned Xinhua News Agency articulated China's motivation to expand land trade in addition to building its navy to protect its sea trade. Here's what it said:

“As a global economic power, China has a tremendous number of economic sea lanes to protect. China is justified to develop its military capabilities to safeguard its sovereignty and protect its vast interests around the world."

China's Global Superpower Ambitions:

The Xinhua report has for the first time shed light on China's growing concerns with US pivot to Asia which could threaten China's international trade and its economic lifeline of energy and other natural resources it needs to sustain and grow its economy. This concern has been further reinforced by the following:

1. Frequent US statements to "check" China's rise. For example, former US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said in a 2011 address to the Naval Postgraduate School in California: "We try everything we can to cooperate with these rising powers and to work with them, but to make sure at the same time that they do not threaten stability in the world, to be able to project our power, to be able to say to the world that we continue to be a force to be reckoned with." He added that "we continue to confront rising powers in the world - China, India, Brazil, Russia, countries that we need to cooperate with. We need to hopefully work with. But in the end, we also need to make sure do not threaten the stability of the world."

View attachment 65433
Source: The Guardian


2. Chinese strategists see a long chain of islands from Japan in the north, all the way down to Australia, all United States allies, all potential controlling chokepoints that could block Chinese sea lanes and cripple its economy, business and industry.

View attachment 65434


View attachment 65435
Karakoram Highway-World's Highest Paved International Road at 15000 ft.


Chinese Premier's emphasis on "connectivity and maritime sectors" and "China-Pakistan economic corridor project" is mainly driven by their paranoia about the US intentions to "check China's rise" It is intended to establish greater maritime presence at Gwadar, located close to the strategic Strait of Hormuz, and to build land routes (motorways, rail links, pipelines) from the Persian Gulf through Pakistan to Western China. This is China's insurance to continue trade with West Asia and the Middle East in case of hostilities with the United States and its allies in Asia.

View attachment 65436
Pakistan's Gawadar Port- located 400 Km from the Strait of Hormuz


As to the benefits for Pakistanis, expanded trade and the Chinese investment in "connectivity and maritime sectors" and "China-Pakistan economic corridor project" will help build infrastructure, stimulate Pakistan's economy and create millions of badly needed jobs.

Clearly, China-Pakistan ties have now become much more strategic than the US-Pakistan ties, particularly since 2011 because, as American Journalist Mark Mazzetti of New York Times put it, the Obama administration's heavy handed policies "turned Pakistan against the United States". A similar view is offered by a former State Department official Vali Nasr in his book "The Dispensable Nation".

Chinese Checkbook Diplomacy:

China is now the biggest lender to the developing world, surpassing the World Bank set up as an institution by the West to extend its dominance after WWII. China's checkbook diplomacy is bearing fruit with its growing trade making it the biggest trading partner of a growing number of countries and regions. As China surpasses the United States as the largest economy and its trade volume explodes, it is very likely that the RMB (Yuan), the Chinese currency, will replace the US dollar as the world's main trade and reserve currency.

Between 2001 and 2010, China’s Export-Import Bank extended $62.7 billion in loans to African nations, or $12.5 billion more than the World Bank, according to Forbes magazine. Over the same period, trade between Africa and China grew by more than 700 per cent with China replacing the U.S. as Africa’s biggest trading partner in 2009.

Summary:

History is filled with examples of great powers using trade and exports to extend their power and influence across the world. China appears to be taking a page from their playbook in pursuit of massive trade growth through check-book diplomacy in Africa, South Asia and South America.


Haq's Musings: Does China Seek to Dominate India, Africa and Latin America?

China is loaning India, more and more, in case of future issues, India will effectively thrown in the bag.

Pakistan needs to encircle India as much as possible after Strategic blunders by current Indian Govt, Pakistan-Russia signed a Military cooperation pact.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Yes, I have read the article that I have posted and also many others, what our previous govt. was doing wrong was to not prioritizing what we need to import and what we can produce or already producing on our own, so, govt. tax-cuts ended-up helping foreign businesses that were in direct competition to our indigenous industries, that was a major blow to our own industry.

Add to that, our previous govt. made all possible efforts to make the business environment for manufacturing industries awfully difficult, check this: How they killed our factories

You can see a concrete effort to change all that now, and you can expect some major visible changes in next 3-4 years.

Also, there is a possibility that we will eventually stop all non-essential imports (like toys, stationary items, ordinary electrical goods, etc.) in favour of our own industry.

India can't even find enough money in their budget to pay the initial down payment for the Rafale to sign the deal, only about $1 billion for the initial order.

No money this fiscal for Rafale jets: A K Antony - The Indian Express

So why are you guys handing us $40 billion every year in your huge trade deficit to us?

You know how governments plug large current account deficits every year? By borrowing more in foreign currency.

 

[Green Arrow]

Well China is already dominating India

 

[dray]

India can't even find enough money in their budget to pay the initial down payment for the Rafale to sign the deal, only about $1 billion for the initial order.

No money this fiscal for Rafale jets: A K Antony - The Indian Express

So why are you guys handing us $40 billion every year in your huge trade deficit to us?

You know how governments plug large current account deficits every year? By borrowing more in foreign currency.

You are right, we need to close that trade deficit fast, it was not there in the previous BJP government's tenure 10 years back. it will not be there in this term also, very soon you will see a sharp decline in the trade deficit.

Btw, why are you quoting me in this old thread again, you are planning something or what?