Why U.S. Navy will lose against China's Militia and Navy

[Patriot786b2]

Why U.S. Navy will lose against China's Militia and Navy

China's armed fishing militia—officially called the People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) by the U.S. Department of Defense—plays an instrumental role in Beijing's strategy to enforce its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea. PAFMM is a government-supported armed fishing force of unknown strength that resides under the direct command and control of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). It has existed for decades and augments Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) and PLA Navy (PLAN) operations in the region. The PAFMM has over 700,000 fishing or Militia boats all over South China Sea. These boats can be armed with torpedo, anti ship missiles and small artillery weapons. Out of the Militia boats 350000 are powered by motorized engines capable of attacking any big size navy vessel. The most dangerous aspect of these fishing vessels is that they can be found in any waters disguised as fishing boats but at moments notice can turn around switch into military navy boat over a second.

It is stated that these boats, described as China’s “third naval force”, are reportedly acting in coordination with the Chinese Naval Forces and the Chinese Coast Guard. While China denies the allegations, some experts insist that these fishing boats are military elements.

“Guerrilla war at sea”

The Philippine army detected 275 ships in the Sandy Cay area near Thitu Island last year. Some experts interpret this approach “as guerrilla war at sea”. China’s ambassador to the Philippines, Zhao Jianhua, however, disagrees and denies the allegations, asserting that the boats are nothing more than fishing boats and that they “do not have any weapons in any form”.

Experts advocate the idea that these “militias” are used to promote strategic objectives such as highlighting regional claims, conducting reconnaissance activities and complicating access to disputed areas. Since many such boats are equipped with satellite navigation, they can track and transfer locations, while collecting intelligence at sea reporting them to various sources.

In fact, according to Erickson and Kennedy, the militia boats have the Chinese BeiDou navigation satellite system with a tablet screen that allows crews to monitor other units, send text messages using Chinese characters. These militias are a well-equipped (trained) fishing boat network organized by China that helps with more intelligence gathering and communications, generating useful information for the navy’s goals.

“Hybrid Civilian Naval Forces”

It is estimated that there are 200,000 fishing boats in China and 14 million people are employed in this sector. However, there are allegedly around 23,000 fishing boats used for the above-mentioned purposes. Maritime militias also provide logistical support to Chinese warships. For instance, the boats are also allegedly used to transfer construction materials to build artificial islands in China’s South China Sea (having carried at least 2.65 million tons since the 1990s).

The real Chinese Navy vessels :
Than there is 1st tier level of actual Chinese people's Liberation Navy which already comprises of 2 state of art Aircraft carriers and scores of latest frigates to destroyers etc.
Getting assistance from 2nd or 3rd tier Militia vessels will be added layer of defence for PAFMM Chinese navy in South China Sea. This is also without using the anti ship df-21 & df-26 ballistic missiles. What happened in Vietnam will repeat the tactic yet this time inside South China Sea waters in favour of Chinese Navy.

Source The Law of Naval Warfare and China's Maritime Militia
https://www.spf.org/islandstudies/readings/b00013r.htmlh

Source Hybrid warfare and maritime militia in China https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/analysis-hybrid-warfare-and-maritime-militia-in-china/1897259

Source A Short History of China's Fishing Militia and What It May Tell Us
https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/04/a-short-history-of-chinas-fishing-militia-and-what.html

 

[RedHulk]

Guerilla war at sea won't work in case of war when you will be clearly in line of sight. Do you think USA who have nuked Japan will hesitate to blast those ships even if they are civilians boats? Any civilian boat in time of war is considered as target. As far I can see America is in no position to have a direct conflict with china, same goes for China. Best bet is that America will keep creating trouble for China by arming surrounding countries instead of direct conflict as China have anti aircraft carrier missiles. So it will be cold war once again but this time against China.

 

[Neptune]

Maybe their army, heck even their infamous Marine Corps. But I doubt there is any military force that can actually take on the US Navy in combat, should they are cleared to engage; not even the Chinese Navy which is one of the few formidable navies in the world.

Besides, don't take world navies lightly on unconventional warfare, as is the case here with armed fishermen.
Almost every anti-air close-in-weapon-system can be configured for surface use i.e. RIM-116 RAM or the Phalanx CIWS, with the order of officer in charge of CIC. Plus, in addition to manned 12.7 weapon stations there are also remote controlled weapon platforms at various stations in a warship. Their caliber range from 7.62 to 20 mm depending on the ship specs. At the present, US Navy (and plus few others) are fitting their ships with laser weapons systems to defend against incoming missiles. These systems can also be used against small civilian crafts like the Chinese armed fishermen for deterrence and warning purposes.

Lastly, there are a handful of standard operating procedures and trainings for a ship's crew in the event that they encounter an irregular military like pirates, fishermen and so on. These include deployment of VBSS or SOF company on ships required sections to deter and eliminate incoming threats or an LRAD system (long range acoustic device) to disrupt and deny incoming individuals who are deemed as hostile but are required to be countered via non-lethal means.

Don't take any warship lightly, especially a guided missile destroyer.
Just because a warship is designed to fight wars and sink other ships doesn't mean they are equipped and trained for scenarios like a bunch of armed fishermen.

 

[LeGenD]

These articles are actually distractions to give the impression that USN is outdated, outmatched, and usual BS. This is a tactic to give the impression that USN have questionable level or preparedness for numerous eventualities. Ground realities are different however.

USN operate in all oceans of the world, intentionally subject to unmatched levels of operational exposure and experience accumulated through the Cold War and lesser conflicts around the world, and they certainly have measures against both regular and irregular forms of engagement in the seas.

They want to 'surprise' in the actual conflict. There is no fun in telling your tricks in theory to win some debates.

 

[YeBeWarned]

As much as I admire China advancement in every field, when it comes to Navy USN is still unmatched by any country ..

 

[obj 705A]

Very stupid article, fishing boats vs the US navy? What kind of a joke is that?
I wanted to give a much longer reply to explain why the US would easily win but then I realised the article is so unbelievably stupid that I shouldn't waste anything more than 5 minutes on it.

 

[samsara]

Don't want to comment about the stupid article of the largest navy vs fishermen thing.

But how about if we rephrase the article to the US Navy vs China's A2/AD stocks?

Will the US carrier fleet incl the Aegis warships win over the Chinese missiles?

 

[obj 705A]

Don't want to comment about the stupid article of the largest navy vs fishermen thing.

But how about if we rephrase the article to the US Navy vs China's A2/AD stocks?

Will the US carrier fleet incl the Aegis warships win over the Chinese missiles?

Within the range of China's land based anti ship missiles, most (or all) US warships will be destroyed , however outside of that range the US will have 100% domination in areas such as the rest of the Pacific , the Indian Ocean, Mediterranean etc.. these regions would become no go zones due to US SSNs, the US will be able to sink every single Chinese merchant vessel and China's conventional subs in these far seas would be quite useless because they can't remain underwater any where near as much as an SSN can & once a submarine surfaces it's basically a sitting duck.

That is why personally I laugh whenever some one here or on SDF says "the PLAN doesn't need to be any where near as big as the USN, all China needs is to secure the SCS and that's it" as if China only does trade with the islands in the SCS & doesn't do trade with South America, China needs to have minimum 60% the capability of the USN (including & especially SSNs).

Thankfully the Chinese leadership doesn't seem to agree with those people, seeing as how China is mass producing warships at an unprecedented pace, now the only component missing is the SSN , the PLAN still has too few SSNs when compared to the US, frankly & without any exaggeration the Type 095 is one thousand times more important than the type 003 for China's security.

 

[LeGenD]

Don't want to comment about the stupid article of the largest navy vs fishermen thing.

But how about if we rephrase the article to the US Navy vs China's A2/AD stocks?

Will the US carrier fleet incl the Aegis warships win over the Chinese missiles?

Like in the South China Sea?

If any navy is well-equipped to fight near Chinese shores, it is USN without any doubt.

They developed and tested ASBM types emulating both Chinese DF-21D and DF-26 variants in anti-ship capacity, and Aegis delivered. American Military Industrial Complex have remarkable R&D capabilities, they are able to replicate any weapon system fielded around the world and put it through its paces.

American publications disclose that much, but they have not declassified those trails yet. Perhaps some day.

They have developed and tested an advanced Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) prototype as well, and American MDA was involved in this test - much of the details are classified. There is only one reason for MDA to be involved in this kind of test...

China is creating a large and advanced navy however. USN will be up for a significant battle.

 

[Figaro]

Why U.S. Navy will lose against China's Militia and Navy

China's armed fishing militia—officially called the People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) by the U.S. Department of Defense—plays an instrumental role in Beijing's strategy to enforce its sovereignty claims in the South China Sea and East China Sea. PAFMM is a government-supported armed fishing force of unknown strength that resides under the direct command and control of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). It has existed for decades and augments Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) and PLA Navy (PLAN) operations in the region. The PAFMM has over 700,000 fishing or Militia boats all over South China Sea. These boats can be armed with torpedo, anti ship missiles and small artillery weapons. Out of the Militia boats 350000 are powered by motorized engines capable of attacking any big size navy vessel. The most dangerous aspect of these fishing vessels is that they can be found in any waters disguised as fishing boats but at moments notice can turn around switch into military navy boat over a second.

It is stated that these boats, described as China’s “third naval force”, are reportedly acting in coordination with the Chinese Naval Forces and the Chinese Coast Guard. While China denies the allegations, some experts insist that these fishing boats are military elements.

“Guerrilla war at sea”

The Philippine army detected 275 ships in the Sandy Cay area near Thitu Island last year. Some experts interpret this approach “as guerrilla war at sea”. China’s ambassador to the Philippines, Zhao Jianhua, however, disagrees and denies the allegations, asserting that the boats are nothing more than fishing boats and that they “do not have any weapons in any form”.

Experts advocate the idea that these “militias” are used to promote strategic objectives such as highlighting regional claims, conducting reconnaissance activities and complicating access to disputed areas. Since many such boats are equipped with satellite navigation, they can track and transfer locations, while collecting intelligence at sea reporting them to various sources.

In fact, according to Erickson and Kennedy, the militia boats have the Chinese BeiDou navigation satellite system with a tablet screen that allows crews to monitor other units, send text messages using Chinese characters. These militias are a well-equipped (trained) fishing boat network organized by China that helps with more intelligence gathering and communications, generating useful information for the navy’s goals.

“Hybrid Civilian Naval Forces”

It is estimated that there are 200,000 fishing boats in China and 14 million people are employed in this sector. However, there are allegedly around 23,000 fishing boats used for the above-mentioned purposes. Maritime militias also provide logistical support to Chinese warships. For instance, the boats are also allegedly used to transfer construction materials to build artificial islands in China’s South China Sea (having carried at least 2.65 million tons since the 1990s).

The real Chinese Navy vessels :
Than there is 1st tier level of actual Chinese people's Liberation Navy which already comprises of 2 state of art Aircraft carriers and scores of latest frigates to destroyers etc.
Getting assistance from 2nd or 3rd tier Militia vessels will be added layer of defence for PAFMM Chinese navy in South China Sea. This is also without using the anti ship df-21 & df-26 ballistic missiles. What happened in Vietnam will repeat the tactic yet this time inside South China Sea waters in favour of Chinese Navy.

Source The Law of Naval Warfare and China's Maritime Militia
https://www.spf.org/islandstudies/readings/b00013r.htmlh

Source Hybrid warfare and maritime militia in China https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/analysis-hybrid-warfare-and-maritime-militia-in-china/1897259

Source A Short History of China's Fishing Militia and What It May Tell Us
https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/04/a-short-history-of-chinas-fishing-militia-and-what.html

Not a good idea ... the South China Sea is not like the Persian Gulf where swarm attacks can work very effectively due to the narrow waters. The South China Sea is extremely vast by comparison. The only way the PLAN can take on the US navy is by increasing their surface and underwater naval forces, as they have been doing recently.

 

[Feng Leng]

Last weekend, PLAN defeated USN in the South China Sea as both navies had two carriers conducting live fire exercises in the South China Sea. The USN failed to wrestle Scarborough Shoal from China, failed to intimidate China and failed to impress its allies with its military might. All the USN managed to do is take some formation based photos

 

[obj 705A]

Like in the South China Sea?

If any navy is well-equipped to fight near Chinese shores, it is USN without any doubt.

They developed and tested ASBM types emulating both Chinese DF-21D and DF-26 variants in anti-ship capacity, and Aegis delivered. American Military Industrial Complex have remarkable R&D capabilities, they are able to replicate any weapon system fielded around the world and put it through its paces.

in a battle between two advanced powers when it comes to offensive vs defesive missiles it's all about the numbers, the USN has no chance within 1000-2000 km or so of China (I haven't checked the furthest range of China's missiles) , US anti missile defence will be useless against a saturation missile strike, because China's rocket force will have the numbers.

as for your claim that US defensive technology is better than China's offensive technology, that may be completely false or completely true! what do I mean by that? well it's basically like a cat & mouse game, whenever one side modifies it's defenses the other side will modify it's offensive missiles, however the offensive missiles have always maintained an advantage because in order for an American ship to survive it needs to intercept all of them, if it fails to intercept even one then it's dead, so the pressure on the platform launching the defensive missiles is far much greater than the one firing the offensive missiles, the only exception to that is if the Adversaries are not equal at all (eg: Hamas vs Israel).

by the way there is no way the US can emulate accuratly the full specs & characteristics of DF-21D or any other missile, a missile is much more than just an object flying at a certain speed you know, also these tests are done in controlled enviroments, even if they sometimes say they simulated electronic warfare or something, it's still all staged, a staged test is one thing, a real war with saturation attacks all over the place is another.

I'm pretty sure the Chinese & the Russians too conduct missile defense tests against missiles that emulate those of the US, does that mean the real offensive US missiles will act the same way? absolutely not.

usually only a third of the USN is deployed at any one time, and 60% of those are in the pacific, so it would basicaly be 20 DDGs vs the entire China... do you seriously think those 20 DDGs have any chance to survive if they get showered by hundreds or even thousands of missiles? (nobody knows the true number of China's missiles, wikipedia numbers are useless).

we have to differentiate between fact & fiction, saying that anything you do against everything that is American anywhere & anytime will fail is just blind worship of the US.

 

[925boy]

As much as I admire China advancement in every field, when it comes to Navy USN is still unmatched by any country ..

US navy in my opinion is easy beaten when it comes to MORALE. I believe US govt and military's morale is low, because US knows it cant win any real serious wars anymore...and no money either... you forget CHina hasnt been spending decades fighting and wearing down its forces morale and equipment....

 

[LeGenD]

in a battle between two advanced powers when it comes to offensive vs defesive missiles it's all about the numbers, the USN has no chance within 1000-2000 km or so of China (I haven't checked the furthest range of China's missiles) , US anti missile defence will be useless against a saturation missile strike, because China's rocket force will have the numbers.

as for your claim that US defensive technology is better than China's offensive technology, that may be completely false or completely true! what do I mean by that? well it's basically like a cat & mouse game, whenever one side modifies it's defenses the other side will modify it's offensive missiles, however the offensive missiles have always maintained an advantage because in order for an American ship to survive it needs to intercept all of them, if it fails to intercept even one then it's dead, so the pressure on the platform launching the defensive missiles is far much greater than the one firing the offensive missiles, the only exception to that is if the Adversaries are not equal at all (eg: Hamas vs Israel).

by the way there is no way the US can emulate accuratly the full specs & characteristics of DF-21D or any other missile, a missile is much more than just an object flying at a certain speed you know, also these tests are done in controlled enviroments, even if they sometimes say they simulated electronic warfare or something, it's still all staged, a staged test is one thing, a real war with saturation attacks all over the place is another.

I'm pretty sure the Chinese & the Russians too conduct missile defense tests against missiles that emulate those of the US, does that mean the real offensive US missiles will act the same way? absolutely not.

usually only a third of the USN is deployed at any one time, and 60% of those are in the pacific, so it would basicaly be 20 DDGs vs the entire China... do you seriously think those 20 DDGs have any chance to survive if they get showered by hundreds or even thousands of missiles? (nobody knows the true number of China's missiles, wikipedia numbers are useless).

we have to differentiate between fact & fiction, saying that anything you do against everything that is American anywhere & anytime will fail is just blind worship of the US.

1. Numbers do count but there is much in the clutter that one can overlook in theory. USN benefit tremendously from its remarkable CEC capability which enable excellent situational awareness even in GPS-prohibited environments. PLAN can also be deprived of Beidou coverage during the course of conflict, and no navy has a CEC equivalent yet.

2. Ballistic missile designs in service are not easy to amend unless a new design is on the cards and/or desired. New design is likely to be granted a new identity as well.

3. USA is absolute master of the "rocket science." DF-21D is loosely based on a design which USA was able to field in the 1980s but was decommissioned due to START treaty with former USSR. Americans stored numerous articles for the 'testing regime' however. American Trident-II D5 is still the most advanced ICBM-type on the planet - a strike platform which became active in 1990. China is catching up with its latest JL-3 which is still in testing phase. There are a large number of things in which other countries are trying to catch up to USA, not the other way around.

The latest China has fielded for striking distant targets is the DF-17 HGV -- MRBM range. Well, the HGV prototype tested by USA is a freaking (next-generation) ICBM in comparison; this HGV was released at 4th stage; after 3 stages in total. ICBM design is typically 3-stages in totality. And American MDA was monitoring this test to see how it could be taken down.

Furthermore, engaging moving warships with ASBM is not as easy as it sound in journalistic items. ASBM are not like freaking Marvel Iron Man. Chances of a miss are really high even with a volley because warships are widely spaced in actual combative formations (not in the manner as shown in the photos for public consumption), on the move, and might maneuver. Sea body is enormous and offer much space to ships for the needful.

4. American testing regime is fairly accurate and realistic, and complexity level can be increased during the course of trials, but environmental impact and safety of lives are important considerations nevertheless. A notable difference is that a target missile is not armed with an actual warhead to reduce its lethal application. But the system undergoing trials has to deliver results in a wide range of simulated operational parameters in order to be given green light for mass production and service by evaluating committee. Its not like they conduct a single simple test and call it a day.

5. Please provide examples. Which clone of American ICBM-types have Russians and Chinese managed to shoot down in their respective testing regimes? Come on now. Unlike Russia and China, USA does not see much application of Ballistic Missiles in the battlefield. Distinct war-fighting philosophy if you will.

USA is the only country in the world which has demonstrated live intercepts of ICBM class targets. The last was exceedingly complex design but testing coverage remains classified to this day.

6. There is no cap upon how much of the force USA is willing to commit to a theater. Usually about two Carrier Battle Groups will do in a potential battlefield but the count can be increased as per demand.

Do not rule out USA like any other country in the matters of war-fighting. They have managed to create the most formidable offensive capability in history of mankind. Although Great Power Competition is heating up, American Defense Budget is still off the charts and by extension R&D capacity.

And please lay off with the accusation of 'worship' in a debate - this is negative thinking and mindset. I happen to have a near-realistic take of things, and do not let my inner feelings cloud my judgement usually. Go and spend some time with USN and you will understand a few things about it.

If or when China will be number 1, I will be among the first to admit as much. But China has to fight battles and prove its mettle first.

 

[samsara]

in a battle between two advanced powers when it comes to offensive vs defesive missiles it's all about the numbers, the USN has no chance within 1000-2000 km or so of China (I haven't checked the furthest range of China's missiles) , US anti missile defence will be useless against a saturation missile strike, because China's rocket force will have the numbers.

as for your claim that US defensive technology is better than China's offensive technology, that may be completely false or completely true! what do I mean by that? well it's basically like a cat & mouse game, whenever one side modifies it's defenses the other side will modify it's offensive missiles, however the offensive missiles have always maintained an advantage because in order for an American ship to survive it needs to intercept all of them, if it fails to intercept even one then it's dead, so the pressure on the platform launching the defensive missiles is far much greater than the one firing the offensive missiles, the only exception to that is if the Adversaries are not equal at all (eg: Hamas vs Israel).

by the way there is no way the US can emulate accuratly the full specs & characteristics of DF-21D or any other missile, a missile is much more than just an object flying at a certain speed you know, also these tests are done in controlled enviroments, even if they sometimes say they simulated electronic warfare or something, it's still all staged, a staged test is one thing, a real war with saturation attacks all over the place is another.

I'm pretty sure the Chinese & the Russians too conduct missile defense tests against missiles that emulate those of the US, does that mean the real offensive US missiles will act the same way? absolutely not.

usually only a third of the USN is deployed at any one time, and 60% of those are in the pacific, so it would basicaly be 20 DDGs vs the entire China... do you seriously think those 20 DDGs have any chance to survive if they get showered by hundreds or even thousands of missiles? (nobody knows the true number of China's missiles, wikipedia numbers are useless).

we have to differentiate between fact & fiction, saying that anything you do against everything that is American anywhere & anytime will fail is just blind worship of the US.

And you have missed out the tyranny of SIZE between the offensive and the defensive missiles.

For the offensive missiles: the target is the large warship.

For the defensive missiles: they need to hit the incoming missile, akin to needle vs needle when compared to the size of targeted warships.

STILL, some may say that the Chinese missiles are not proven technologically as China has not engaged in any war for how many decades, while the adversary is saturated with war experiences as the ultimate “King of Wars” in this Earth as of the 20th century!