Why nobody wanted to help Panjshir or take the Gamble - It was due to Pakistan red-lines

[Battlion25]

the subject is interesting but India specfic reasoning is very weak.
If India saw benefit then it wouldve done everything to protect its Afghan investment.

nuclear option is a MAD last option when state of Pakistan existence is at stake
its not a threatening tool to swing on every disagreement and confrontation. its use means end of Pakistan too. you want that for Punjsher? really?

the so called Pakistani red lines mean nothing. India's Curent NSA has boasted helping BLA and TTP in the past and our dossiers have blamed them using Afghan soil too. Chinese citizens and Pakistani soldiers are regularly being attacked through Afghanistan those red lines seem to be shifting and nothing beyond a statement.

you have missed out Turkey and Iran. Turkey backs General Dostom specially.
Panjsher has received supplies recently before its fall. I dont see any nuclear mushroom in Ankara, Tehran or Delhi yet.

This is flawed. It is last resort but fully engaging head on Pakistan armed forces it will always be a consideration. recieving supplies or send someone back etc etc all that is not counted as intervention and done covertly.

If the redlines didn't mean somthing they would have been in Punjab killed every single on of us because that is initially what they want but they can't attain it. It is existentially risky for them.

Some of the logistics part is true but majority of this is wish washy wishful post.

I didn't say threatened the world but that nobody wanted to engage Pakistan over Afghanistan to interfere with her economy and stragetic interests.

1. Example remember when Turkey blocked Russia in Idlib and north Syria this could have turned into major conflict but this was not worth the effort for both to engage over Idlib and north Syria.

2. The same thing happened in Libya when Sisi set a red-line in Sirte the Turks could have taken the city ones but this could have lead to direct Turkish-Egyptian collision it was not worth the effort for Turkey.

3. Also not to forget China once blocked the US in North Korea. They wanted to advance and take all of Korea but once the Chinese entered they did an assesement analysis and saw that it was not worth the risk engaging China for North because of the cost and effort it will come at hence why there is north and south Korea

This is geopolitical abc, 123 you only fight major war when it is absolute necessary and you don't engage and fight a nuclear state over things that is not necessary last resort. Hence nobody wants to cross Pakistan's red-lines because it is not worth the effort to engage Pakistan and create such a major war over their redlines and economic and stragetic interests of that said country hence everyone will just go and mind their bussiness. It is loss-loss scenario and not worth the effort

Couldn't have said it better you nailed it. The US has also blocked many countries in the past such as Taiwan the chinese wanted and still do until today but the Americans have sort of blocked them.

This is how geopolitics works on the micro level only engage when it is absolute neccessary in a major war because Major wars require alot of effort and the greater the war the greater the effort hence strong nations will only engage in it if it was the absolute last resort. The financial side of a major war is also one of the reasons plus loss of equipment and men but the economy also gets major hit not only these 2 countries but around the world hence it is not feasible engaging in major war that easily or taking the decision to do so..

 

[Danish Moazzam]

Genius, you didn't answer my question or answered to address my post. Lastly, out of 24, if just in 3-4 province (10% of the ANA) stood up, I think right now we'd still be waiting on "when" Afg. would fall to Talibans. So yes, luck played a big factor. No matter how powerful they were, who'd have thought that 90% of the country won't fire a few shots at them and would just surrender.

You are talking strategy and then bringing in if 10% of Afghanistan aka (agar Rafaal hota) then the bull might have been shitting different

Let me tell you for Taliban to get lucky they did make sure the following were in their plan

step 1
Taliban knew the ground and started early negotiation with locals. The American withdrawal was clear.

Step 2
they worked on the northern front to isolate the support of ANA

Step 3
Take control of all areas that have been negotiated with overwhelming superiority and to make sure that the news carries. This created doubts in the soldiers who would eventually have to encounter them

Step 4
Negotiate with elders of areas that did not agree to earlier surrender and convince them. Take control of those districts. Killing the will to fight even further for contested districts

Step 5
March to contested areas minus panjshir and offer surrender or combat. Step 1 to 4 made surrender the logical choice

Step 6
Announce amnesty so that panjshir can be convinced, and if they fight it will only delay the inevitable.

Luck:

America supporting ana even knowing that they were corrupted to the core.

Morale of the soldiers was down already.

So there you have it, my one line explained
The Taliban knew what they were doing and executed it to near perfection

 

[Falconless]

I understand your point but your analysis is incorrect.

From Ottoman's to Modern Islamic states...all have been thoroughly tossed by the West.
Well Ottomans tossed West for a quite a bit time. All good things do come to an end and unfortunately Ottomans made the same mistakes the Mughals did and most Muslim empires did in the past. Your statement gives an impression that the Western civilization would last forever (it has only been less than a century where the current form of West appeared). That impression of eternal West itself is quite flawed. Your West will fall eventually the only question is whether your way of life disappears with it.


First of all the concept of Ummah and that kind of Union is more prevalent in South Asia and not really in the Arabs. The second point is the setup in most Muslim countries is towards having a Kingdom (this includes UAE) which directly conflicts with the concept of Ummah. You cant have an Ummah if you have to protect your family regime (Arabs springs the latest example). The concept of Ummah is really good if you adhere to principle of Islam which is no superiority between an Arab and a Non Arab except your individual deeds. Unfortunately racisms is something that Arabs have yet to overcome and even Pakistanis do show it in some forms. Also sectarian issues do play some part in it as well.


The answer to this is very complicated and goes back colonialism (which was not that far in the past less than 1 century). The colonialism impacted the very social fabric of Muslims in every possible way whether it was Education (religious & scientific), borders, trade etc. One century is not nearly enough to overcome that. Also the West is not stupid they are very good manipulators and unfortunately our leaders pre-disposed to those manipulation.

The only way to overcome and make a Union is to find common ground, just having common religion and being part of Ummah is not enough. We need to have a common threat (just like EU/Nato have). Unfortunately there is no common threat at the moment (unlike what most people believe in Pakistan for example that common threat is the West, it does not translate on Government level). As long as that common threat is not there we will not unify.

To add to this for the EU to form the Europeans fought two wars that destroyed the entire continent and killed hundreds of millions of people

 

[Danish Moazzam]

You are talking strategy and then bringing in if 10% of Afghanistan aka (agar Rafaal hota) then the bull might have been shitting different

Let me tell you for Taliban to get lucky they did make sure the following were in their plan

step 1
Taliban knew the ground and started early negotiation with locals. The American withdrawal was clear.

Step 2
they worked on the northern front to isolate the support of ANA

Step 3
Take control of all areas that have been negotiated with overwhelming superiority and to make sure that the news carries. This created doubts in the soldiers who would eventually have to encounter them

Step 4
Negotiate with elders of areas that did not agree to earlier surrender and convince them. Take control of those districts. Killing the will to fight even further for contested districts

Step 5
March to contested areas minus panjshir and offer surrender or combat. Step 1 to 4 made surrender the logical choice

Step 6
Announce amnesty so that panjshir can be convinced, and if they fight it will only delay the inevitable.

Luck:

America supporting ana even knowing that they were corrupted to the core.

Morale of the soldiers was down already.

So there you have it, my one line explained
The Taliban knew what they were doing and executed it to near perfection

On top of those i forgot to add 02 things, one is strategy part, and second is luck part.

First

Strategy was not to show hand and wait till it was very late for American withdrawal, thus creating false sense of security in Coalition forces minds.

They went all guns blazing, surprising and taking everyone off guard. (They choose their time of attack) That was the first element to the realization of their takeover

Second Luck

They were Lucky that India did not grow BALLS by the time they took over (That is still waiting to happen),

Had they sent in General Ajay, Commander Akshay and so many more Bollywood heroes Taliban would have been done for and we would have been discussing that there existed an organisation called Taliban

 

[El Sidd]

The first person who would have helped was India and icthing for it they would have intervened at the beat of heart but the only problem was that Pakistan set a red-line because it doesn't want anymore intervention in it's neighbouring country due to refugees and cause of economical crisis inside Pakistan and blocking her from a major central Asia connection and to the larger Eurasia.

Hence Pakistan's new redlines since the US left was no intervention in Afghanistan at all stance period and it started the Uzbekistan-Pakistan road project construction for trade purpose not even Russia want it Because it was not worth it colliding with Pakistan over her economic and stragetic interests in her backyard.

As for India it didn't want all her population centers flatten to the ground and radioactivated because of Afghanistan it was not worth the effort for the Indians and likewise for everybody in the region hence nobody bothered to intervene for Panjshir or Afghanistan it was blocked by Pakistan.

But Pakistan herself never intervened in Panjshir in any way or form but it only blocked any form of foreign intervention in Afghanistan in order for Afghanistan to gain peace and Pakistan in return gets her economy up and running including connection to central Asia. Pakistan's stragetic interests

Pakistan's red line was breached on Aug 05, 2019.

Stop your ill fated jingoism.

 

[Titanium100]

Pakistan's red line was breached on Aug 05, 2019.

Stop your ill fated jingoism.

Lol. Whatever hands inside India's territory is India's concern not our redlines

 

[El Sidd]

Lol. Whatever hands inside India's territory is India's concern not our redlines

Kashmir is not Indian territory

 

[DJ_Viper]

You are talking strategy and then bringing in if 10% of Afghanistan aka (agar Rafaal hota) then the bull might have been shitting different

Let me tell you for Taliban to get lucky they did make sure the following were in their plan

step 1
Taliban knew the ground and started early negotiation with locals. The American withdrawal was clear.

Step 2
they worked on the northern front to isolate the support of ANA

Step 3
Take control of all areas that have been negotiated with overwhelming superiority and to make sure that the news carries. This created doubts in the soldiers who would eventually have to encounter them

Step 4
Negotiate with elders of areas that did not agree to earlier surrender and convince them. Take control of those districts. Killing the will to fight even further for contested districts

Step 5
March to contested areas minus panjshir and offer surrender or combat. Step 1 to 4 made surrender the logical choice

Step 6
Announce amnesty so that panjshir can be convinced, and if they fight it will only delay the inevitable.

Luck:

America supporting ana even knowing that they were corrupted to the core.

Morale of the soldiers was down already.

So there you have it, my one line explained
The Taliban knew what they were doing and executed it to near perfection

Ok, phew and wow! Here we go, USA vs. the Pakistani public? Not really guys. Chill and let's first try to understand what I was saying instead of JUST reading what you want to read to start an argument. Taliban were there before the US ever went in, Taliban were there and had been there since the late 70's in various forms and names. So let's establish that, that's home to them. Afg. and all nationalist nations for that matter, don't commit allegiance to an outside force, let alone a superpower that's hated. So no one is denying that. No one's denying the fact that they'd have won. In fact, while the US was there, a big portion of that country was still under Taliban's control. I know that, so you aren't talking to someone reading this stuff off internet getting high on media.

What I am referring to, is SPEED and TIME. These two, executed at the right time (rarely happens), create a surprise factor that brings luck. But it is extremely hard to execute these two together. What if, the Talibans had a different strategy? I am just making this, up, what if they wanted to start slow and first cover areas by Tajikstan? Where would they be today? it would've taken longer, same with if ANA stood up. But execution at the right time brought them that luck and surprise. I hope this debate can be put to rest.

W2 ?
Russian took Berlin and Russian invasion into Manchuria promted japans surrender
Korea
China and Russia screwed you.
Chinese threw you back all the way to the 38th parallel
Vietnam
China and Russia screwed USA
Afghan war
Pakistan screwed USA
Iraq war
Iran screwed USA
Old enough to give you a
It is called common sense
Yes I asked.
and they said people who believe in that always lose wars.

LOL, it seems like we are used to getting screwed and still we run the globe. Here is a line learned from a real life event "when an operation goes bad, we shut it down, no emotions"!!

 

[Kraetoz]

Genius, you didn't answer my question or answered to address my post. Lastly, out of 24, if just in 3-4 province (10% of the ANA) stood up, I think right now we'd still be waiting on "when" Afg. would fall to Talibans. So yes, luck played a big factor. No matter how powerful they were, who'd have thought that 90% of the country won't fire a few shots at them and would just surrender.

Pakistan has been saying since last 10 years that Afghan army would not stand.

Ajit doval on record said that top Pakistani generals told him Afghanistan army would fall. Doval went on to say that he doesn't think so its 300k+ strong against merely 70k

Then you have Major Gaurav Arya who agrees with your view too. He said it's impossible that 70k would beat 350k

Then you have Biden who also said them same thing.

Here i posted all your sources for you.

Regarding your last question, who'd have thought that 90% of the country won't fire a few shots at them and would just surrender.

Answer: Pakistan knew since last 10 years.

When your primary sources are Ajit Doval, Major Gaurav Arya and Biden. It's no surprise that you want to scream Luck on top of your lungs here.

 

[DJ_Viper]

Pakistan has been saying since last 10 years that Afghan army would not stand.

Ajit doval on record said that top Pakistani generals told him Afghanistan army would fall. Doval went on to say that he doesn't think so its 300k+ strong against merely 70k

Then you have Major Gaurav Arya who agrees with your view too. He said it's impossible that 70k would beat 350k

Then you have Biden who also said them same thing.

Here i posted all your sources for you.

Regarding your last question, who'd have thought that 90% of the country won't fire a few shots at them and would just surrender.

Answer: Pakistan knew since last 10 years.

When your primary sources are Ajit Doval, Major Gaurav Arya and Biden. It's no surprise that you want to scream Luck on top of your lungs here.

Done with emotions? Re-read my post above. You wrote me so much stuff that's irrelevant. I KNOW Pakistan used to say that ANA won't stand tall. The US knew that too. Our intelligence agencies estimated about 3 months and that time was enough to do some sort of settlement with all parties. That didn't happen. Also, read the "luck" part above and it's explanation. You guys are too emotional and seems to read only what you want to.


Just to answer your "Pakistan told us 10 years ago", this wasn't a war started to really fight for some illogical reason, or to get a defined outcome out. This war was started because we got attacked. So, IMO, we spent 20 years in ensuring we won't get attacked again and we have that assurance from the Taliban. It doesn't matter what Pakistan or China or Maldives told us and they all may have been right. We were here because we got attacked and then we left. Operation closed.

 

[Kraetoz]

Done with emotions? Re-read my post above. You wrote me so much stuff that's irrelevant. I KNOW Pakistan used to say that ANA won't stand tall. The US knew that too. Our intelligence agencies estimated about 3 months and that time was enough to do some sort of settlement with all parties. That didn't happen. Also, read the "luck" part above and it's explanation. You guys are too emotional and seems to read only what you want to.

Listen to Imran Khan's interview in last 2 years and you would get to know that he was asking for a negotiated settlement. Pakistan wanted Inclusive Government. America was relying on Indian sources to leave it for the last 3 months and hoping desperately Afghanistan army would hold, when they had ample time for a negotiated settlement.

Our intelligence agencies estimated about 3 months and that time was enough to do some sort of settlement with all parties. That didn't happen.

Yes, massive intelligence failure is being labelled as Luck for Talibans. Indians were actually clinging on to your balls hoping this would be the case.

Just to answer your "Pakistan told us 10 years ago", this wasn't a war started to really fight for some illogical reason, or to get a defined outcome out. This war was started because we got attacked. So, IMO, we spent 20 years in ensuring we won't get attacked again and we have that assurance from the Taliban. It doesn't matter what Pakistan or China or Maldives told us and they all may have been right. We were here because we got attacked and then we left. Operation closed.

If that was the case then it would have made sense if they went back 10 years ago after killing OBL.

Talking about terrorism when US went in to Afghanistan 20 years ago, there was just one terrorist organisation and now there are 20 according to chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua chunying. You have assurance from taliban, but do you have assurance from the other 19? Ill just leave that to your imagination. Threat now is more than it was 20 years ago. US intelligence as you rightly said is failing right, left and center. Because others are just being really lucky.

 

[DJ_Viper]

Listen to Imran Khan's interview in last 2 years and you would get to know that he was asking for a negotiated settlement. Pakistan wanted Inclusive Government. America was relying on Indian sources to leave it for the last 3 months and hoping desperately Afghanistan army would hold, when they had ample time for a negotiated settlement.




Yes, massive intelligence failure is being labelled as Luck for Talibans. Indians were actually clinging on to your balls hoping this would be the case.



If that was the case then it would have made sense if they went back 10 years ago after killing OBL.

Talking about terrorism when US went in to Afghanistan 20 years ago, there was just one terrorist organisation and now there are 20 according to chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua chunying. You have assurance from taliban, but do you have assurance from the other 19? Ill just leave that to your imagination. Threat now is more than it was 20 years ago. US intelligence as you rightly said is failing right, left and center. Because others are just being really lucky.

"When an operation goes bad, we shut it down, no emotions"! Are we done now?

 

[CatSultan]

So you are saying Pakistan is so powerful that it threatened the world with radio-active waves and everyone got scared? And didn't put sanctions on Pakistan? This "belief system" is childish to say the least.

The only reason why the Talibans got to where they are, are primarily:
1: US withdraw that was hasty and confusing to say the least
2: A total collapse of the Afg. NA. Didn't allow or provide anytime for any outside intervention and it was immediate.
3: Within days, the country was taken over, leaving no chance of even having the ability to provide outside support as India or any other country, would need to setup supply chain and it takes months.
4: Pure luck, that was on Taliban's side. All assessments went dead. I believe the idea was, the Afghan NA would hold Talibans at bay for about 1.5-3 months. It was enough time for outsiders to setup their militias and networks (like it's always been). But the sudden and immediate collapse of the NA, allowed no such opportunity.

ANA didn't fall due to pure luck. Whatever fighting will they had left in them was taken away by Taliban 5th generation warefare. They used the internet to spread videos which made them look like they where winning and that their was no choice but to surrender.

 

[Danish Moazzam]

@djviper

There is a saying

Success is when opportunity meets preparation.

They were prepared to work on this opportunity.

And this also means that coalition force with all its might was ill prepared because they could not find the opportunity in 20 years.

Instead of schooling us you need to accept that Taliban out classed them. This is easy to put it on bad luck when it was bad decision after bad decision. It was arrogance

Yes they were lucky

whatever helps you sleep

 

[Titanium100]

ANA didn't fall due to pure luck. Whatever fighting will they had left in them was taken away by Taliban 5th generation warefare. They used the internet to spread videos which made them look like they where winning and that their was no choice but to surrender.

It has nothing to do with 5th generation warfare everything happens on the ground but rather TB just growing stronger and at one point they were fighting at the same time in 20 cities that is crazy.. These in the valley didn't analysis before engaging TB and didn't know exactly how strong thru out the years TB got. If TB had that ability they were preparing than it proves that report correct i heard in a recent report they were preparing for 5 years for this moment