NOWorNEVER
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28 Nov 2017, www.indiandefence.com
I love this plan, absolutely. Indeed I am ecstatic at the very thought of it. Nothing more could be a wish coming true for me in the context of Pakistan, than this. Before you go up in arms against me and label me a Communist or a Pakistan sympathizer, let me clarify that I am an apolitical atheist, but guilty of being a Pakistan sympathizer.
Scandalized by my claims of being a Pakistani Sympathizer? Some of you may now say 'ah, we always suspected it' and some of you would be "I knew it! See, wasn't it as I said, he is a Pakistani sympathizer?' in other forums too! But I am a humanisttoo. And nothing is more deplorable than seeing a nation of 208 Million people approximately (as per Census 2017), suffer at the hands of a few radicals at Faislabad Interchange and at the hands of a weak political structure which has given them nothing more than poor economic development, increasing security challenges to it's own existence as a State (paradoxically due to it's need to enhance it's own security by following certain policies) and an uncertain future to look forward to.
My approach, antithetical to the official approach of the Government of India, is purely a selfish approach taken by me to argue a case for Indian Security. And I would seriously enjoy it, the idea, being emulated all over the country itself, and not merely along a stretch of CPEC (indeed it is being emulated as we speak). My love for this plan has the admixture of a potential for enhanced security and stability of Pakistan as a Nation (thereby insuring Indian security).
A larger and stronger Chinese presence in Pakistan will be the natural progression of any incremental investment in the Pakistani Economy. I have used the words "incremental investment" to encompass both the economic meaning as also the military meaning of the words.
The underlying security challenges to the Pakistani State are from the masses of radicalized citizens, who are increasingly demonstrating their ability to hijack the national agenda and render them to a background role in the larger game being played out with the aim of using religion and it's distortions to continue to erode the credentials of the Pakistani state.
The recent incidents of Faislabad interchange, wherein an elected government of a Sovereign nation was forced to 'back out' in front of a motley group of what may best be called a disruptive group, and where in the Armed Forces clearly occupied a position of public withdrawal of support and refusing the legal directive of the said government by stepping in to enforce the orders as passed by the IHC, indicates to the population in general and the external world, the ability of these radical groups to quickly undermine the State - both the executive and the judiciary.
In such a scenario, the logic of exclusive Chinese industrial parks/townships as envisaged under the CPEC plan (as far as what can be revealed from the CPEC Masterplan as published by Khurram Husain in Dawn dated 21 Jun 2017 link:https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101), makes sense only till these groups assume upon them the role of guardianship of the 'faith' (or whatever is their view of it anyway) , whereupon, these groups will be an antithetical force to the said Chinese. The disruptive effects on, say the Pakistani Agricultural Sector, are apparent on a cursory glance, but of course remain a mere 'figment of imagination' to the unabashed apologists.
It is this underlying conflict of interest (if I may use the term) with the Chinese, that is the most comical and most serious threat that the Chinese will face. I say comical as it is indeed that, if one ripostes faith in a country and economy that is undermined actively by it's Armed Forces, weak and corrupt Civil Establishments and an increasingly radicalised and retrospective society. Serious in it's potential of disruptions in the near vicinity of India, thereby creating instability in the Indian periphery.
If we take the example of only the Agricultural Sector, the strata of citizens involved here, renders them most susceptible to the changes being envisaged. Right from production to the processing to storage to transport and marketing, the proposed integration of Chinese firms and companies at all levels in the agricultural sector, will have serious consequences in this sector for the average Pakistani. It is this group that shall increasingly look towards the above mentioned fringe and radicalized groups, to provide support and succour, with the alternative being rather unattractive and poor one, a perceptibly weakened Government which does not have the capability or the ability to enforce it's writ over the State.
Let us be very clear and very honest, the Chinese have raised their reservations to Pakistan over the present trends and directions in the Pakistani society. That the Pakistani Army did nothing to check this group, will be a point noted in China certainly, and by these groups as also hundreds of thousands of impressionable minds who will gravitate to this group now. This will also pit Pakistan Army against this subset increasingly as the societal and filial connections with the group will serve to undermine the effort, if and when required, against the groups(s).
With the trends developing, the CPEC will be crucial for PRC for it's long term security and commercial needs. Nowhere in near proximity will China get thousands of Hectares for it's agricultural needs, nor unabridged access to markets for employment generation for it's own population, in the face of increased automation and refining of both production and development, which is reducing the number of jobs in order to enable cost competitiveness and consistent quality controls. In the trends of Global economic scenario, the only way to rejig for the challenges ahead for all industries is to reduce the overheads incurred per cost center and this is where the automation will come into play.
So, what alternatives does one see? An increased Chinese security presence is my estimation, as Pakistan Army will face challenges in it's tasking if the present trends continue. You can only allow the society to be ruled by the radicals till a certain point. The day they are allowed to project themselves stronger than the State and it's Judiciary, that day is the day the downfall of the nation starts.
The above is a condition ripe wherein the PRC may be forced to protect it's interests and investments by, in the worst case scenario, deployment of it's own security forces (Hint: This is where the re-run of Trans-Siberian rail network comes into play). The PRC experience in Xinjiang has been an open secret, and the emulation of the same can not be discounted. That ofcourse, directly or indirectly forces PA to act against these groups without differentiation as these groups are cut of the same cloth, be it against Afghanistan, Pakistan or India.
As an Indian, and as a member who has deep interests in matters of security, for me, nothing else could be a more healthy and more productive outcome for Indian security than an increased Chinese presence.
http://indiandefence.com/threads/why-i-love-the-idea-of-china-in-pakistan.66925/
28 Nov 2017, www.indiandefence.com
I love this plan, absolutely. Indeed I am ecstatic at the very thought of it. Nothing more could be a wish coming true for me in the context of Pakistan, than this. Before you go up in arms against me and label me a Communist or a Pakistan sympathizer, let me clarify that I am an apolitical atheist, but guilty of being a Pakistan sympathizer.
Scandalized by my claims of being a Pakistani Sympathizer? Some of you may now say 'ah, we always suspected it' and some of you would be "I knew it! See, wasn't it as I said, he is a Pakistani sympathizer?' in other forums too! But I am a humanisttoo. And nothing is more deplorable than seeing a nation of 208 Million people approximately (as per Census 2017), suffer at the hands of a few radicals at Faislabad Interchange and at the hands of a weak political structure which has given them nothing more than poor economic development, increasing security challenges to it's own existence as a State (paradoxically due to it's need to enhance it's own security by following certain policies) and an uncertain future to look forward to.
My approach, antithetical to the official approach of the Government of India, is purely a selfish approach taken by me to argue a case for Indian Security. And I would seriously enjoy it, the idea, being emulated all over the country itself, and not merely along a stretch of CPEC (indeed it is being emulated as we speak). My love for this plan has the admixture of a potential for enhanced security and stability of Pakistan as a Nation (thereby insuring Indian security).
A larger and stronger Chinese presence in Pakistan will be the natural progression of any incremental investment in the Pakistani Economy. I have used the words "incremental investment" to encompass both the economic meaning as also the military meaning of the words.
The underlying security challenges to the Pakistani State are from the masses of radicalized citizens, who are increasingly demonstrating their ability to hijack the national agenda and render them to a background role in the larger game being played out with the aim of using religion and it's distortions to continue to erode the credentials of the Pakistani state.
The recent incidents of Faislabad interchange, wherein an elected government of a Sovereign nation was forced to 'back out' in front of a motley group of what may best be called a disruptive group, and where in the Armed Forces clearly occupied a position of public withdrawal of support and refusing the legal directive of the said government by stepping in to enforce the orders as passed by the IHC, indicates to the population in general and the external world, the ability of these radical groups to quickly undermine the State - both the executive and the judiciary.
In such a scenario, the logic of exclusive Chinese industrial parks/townships as envisaged under the CPEC plan (as far as what can be revealed from the CPEC Masterplan as published by Khurram Husain in Dawn dated 21 Jun 2017 link:https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101), makes sense only till these groups assume upon them the role of guardianship of the 'faith' (or whatever is their view of it anyway) , whereupon, these groups will be an antithetical force to the said Chinese. The disruptive effects on, say the Pakistani Agricultural Sector, are apparent on a cursory glance, but of course remain a mere 'figment of imagination' to the unabashed apologists.
It is this underlying conflict of interest (if I may use the term) with the Chinese, that is the most comical and most serious threat that the Chinese will face. I say comical as it is indeed that, if one ripostes faith in a country and economy that is undermined actively by it's Armed Forces, weak and corrupt Civil Establishments and an increasingly radicalised and retrospective society. Serious in it's potential of disruptions in the near vicinity of India, thereby creating instability in the Indian periphery.
If we take the example of only the Agricultural Sector, the strata of citizens involved here, renders them most susceptible to the changes being envisaged. Right from production to the processing to storage to transport and marketing, the proposed integration of Chinese firms and companies at all levels in the agricultural sector, will have serious consequences in this sector for the average Pakistani. It is this group that shall increasingly look towards the above mentioned fringe and radicalized groups, to provide support and succour, with the alternative being rather unattractive and poor one, a perceptibly weakened Government which does not have the capability or the ability to enforce it's writ over the State.
Let us be very clear and very honest, the Chinese have raised their reservations to Pakistan over the present trends and directions in the Pakistani society. That the Pakistani Army did nothing to check this group, will be a point noted in China certainly, and by these groups as also hundreds of thousands of impressionable minds who will gravitate to this group now. This will also pit Pakistan Army against this subset increasingly as the societal and filial connections with the group will serve to undermine the effort, if and when required, against the groups(s).
With the trends developing, the CPEC will be crucial for PRC for it's long term security and commercial needs. Nowhere in near proximity will China get thousands of Hectares for it's agricultural needs, nor unabridged access to markets for employment generation for it's own population, in the face of increased automation and refining of both production and development, which is reducing the number of jobs in order to enable cost competitiveness and consistent quality controls. In the trends of Global economic scenario, the only way to rejig for the challenges ahead for all industries is to reduce the overheads incurred per cost center and this is where the automation will come into play.
So, what alternatives does one see? An increased Chinese security presence is my estimation, as Pakistan Army will face challenges in it's tasking if the present trends continue. You can only allow the society to be ruled by the radicals till a certain point. The day they are allowed to project themselves stronger than the State and it's Judiciary, that day is the day the downfall of the nation starts.
The above is a condition ripe wherein the PRC may be forced to protect it's interests and investments by, in the worst case scenario, deployment of it's own security forces (Hint: This is where the re-run of Trans-Siberian rail network comes into play). The PRC experience in Xinjiang has been an open secret, and the emulation of the same can not be discounted. That ofcourse, directly or indirectly forces PA to act against these groups without differentiation as these groups are cut of the same cloth, be it against Afghanistan, Pakistan or India.
As an Indian, and as a member who has deep interests in matters of security, for me, nothing else could be a more healthy and more productive outcome for Indian security than an increased Chinese presence.
http://indiandefence.com/threads/why-i-love-the-idea-of-china-in-pakistan.66925/
