Why hasn't Pakistan been able to have a sustained GDP growth rate?

[Alpha_PK]

Pakistan has had a very uneven growth path since independance.

One year the growth rate is 7% and then the next it's 2%.

Why hasn't Pakistan been able to sustain a high GDP growth rate?


Look at Bangladesh for example their GDP growth rate hasn't fallen below 4% since the start of this century. Even this year, it is above 4%. No wonder their economy is bigger than ours now.


When will Pakistan grow at 7-8% a year and when will it be able to sustain it?

The average GDP growth rate for Pakistan will be 4% for the next 5 years.

2% in 2020, and then 4% for 2022, 2023, and 2024 and then 5% for 2025.

 

[xyxmt]

its not capped, its estimated growth in next 5 years. but if it was 8% then question becomes why capped at 8% why not grow at 10 percent. These things become clear as your age.

 

[Alpha_PK]

its not capped, its estimated growth in next 5 years. but if it was 8% then question becomes why capped at 8% why not grow at 10 percent. These things become clear as your age.

I wasn't talking about the forecast.

I'm talking about our growth rate in the last 30 years.

We just can't seem to grow more than 5% and if we do it's not for more than a year or two.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Reasons abbreviated -

• Too much religion.
• Too much mosque.
• Too much Mullah power.
• Too much prayers.

• Not enough education
• Not enough skill learning
• Not enough hard work ethic
• Not enough opening to the global economy
• Not being being open to new ideas

 

[Alpha_PK]

Reasons abbreviated -

• Too much religion.
• Too much mosque.
• Too much Mullah power.
• Too much prayers.

• Not enough education
• Not enough skill learning
• Not enough hard work ethic
• Not enough opening to the global economy
• Not being being open to new ideas

Those are very broad reasons.

I was asking about some economic reasons. Like what type of policies were made, how were they implemented. That sort of thing.

 

[Norwegian]

Pakistan has had a very uneven growth path since independance.

One year the growth rate is 7% and then the next it's 2%.

Why hasn't Pakistan been able to sustain a high GDP growth rate?


Look at Bangladesh for example their GDP growth rate hasn't fallen below 4% since the start of this century. Even this year, it is above 4%. No wonder their economy is bigger than ours now.


When will Pakistan grow at 7-8% a year and when will it be able to sustain it?

The average GDP growth rate for Pakistan will be 4% for the next 5 years.

2% in 2020, and then 4% for 2022, 2023, and 2024 and then 5% for 2025.

Why is it capped at 5%?

its not capped, its estimated growth in next 5 years. but if it was 8% then question becomes why capped at 8% why not grow at 10 percent. These things become clear as your age.

Reasons abbreviated -

• Too much religion.
• Too much mosque.
• Too much Mullah power.
• Too much prayers.

• Not enough education
• Not enough skill learning
• Not enough hard work ethic
• Not enough opening to the global economy
• Not being being open to new ideas

Because unlike export led growth model of Bangladesh, India and Asian Tigers (Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong, China) Pakistan follows import led growth model. Import substitution policies have devastated Pakistani economy for decades and pushed the country to IMF with begging bowl 22 times already.

How to fix Pakistan’s economy

The role of the World Bank and the IMF has shrunk sharply in the last four decades.

www.dawn.com

@ziaulislam @Joe Shearer @beijingwalker @Viet @Homo Sapiens @Bilal9 @Black_cats

 

[Alpha_PK]

Because unlike export led growth model of Bangladesh, India and Asian Tigers (Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong, China) Pakistan follows import led growth model. Import substitution policies have devastated Pakistani economy for decades and pushed the country to IMF with begging bowl 22 times already.

How to fix Pakistan’s economy

The role of the World Bank and the IMF has shrunk sharply in the last four decades.

www.dawn.com

View attachment 695708View attachment 695709
@ziaulislam @Joe Shearer @beijingwalker @Viet @Homo Sapiens @Bilal9 @Black_cats

How's the exports looking in the near term?

Are we improving?

Where will be at in 2025 according to you?

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Like what type of policies were made

That is policy failure. Think for a second. Why has China shot to the top? Mass education aimed at 99.9% literacy [both male/female] and massive emphasis on producing millions of scientists, engineers, technicians etc

They are the resource behind those motorways, bridges, dams they build in Pakistan. They are the resouce behind the VT-4 Tanks, jet fighters and Chinese industry. Also hard work ethic.

What has this Chinese engineer got that he is in Pakistan building motorways? His faith, his proficiency in Quran hafiz, his prayers or his technical and scientific education?

Chinese engineers are working on the Havelian-Thakot Expressway being constructed under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

 

[Indos]

Because unlike export led growth model of Bangladesh, India and Asian Tigers (Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong, China) Pakistan follows import led growth model. Import substitution policies have devastated Pakistani economy for decades and pushed the country to IMF with begging bowl 22 times already.

How to fix Pakistan’s economy

The role of the World Bank and the IMF has shrunk sharply in the last four decades.

www.dawn.com

View attachment 695708View attachment 695709
@ziaulislam @Joe Shearer @beijingwalker @Viet @Homo Sapiens @Bilal9 @Black_cats

Vietnam also import a lot, that is why Vietnam Export figure cannot add their GDP figure since their import figure is quite similar with their export figure. Vietnam GDP is actually not too different with Pakistan GDP (nominal).

 

[Alpha_PK]

Vietnam also import a lot, that is why Vietnam Export figure cannot add their GDP figure since their import figure is quite similar with their export figure. Vietnam GDP is actually not too different with Pakistan GDP (nominal).

Vietnam's GDP was 31 billion in 2000.
Pakistan's was 70 billion.

Now their GDP is higher that ours and the disparity will increase

 

[Norwegian]

How's the exports looking in the near term?

Are we improving?

Where will be at in 2025 according to you?

Yes, continously improving after PKR exchange rate was changed from fixed to market based:

 

[KaiserX]

The business environment in Pakistan is bad and the lack of export. Think about it Pakistanis businesses have to pay the highest rate of electricity in south asia, while dealing with corrupt politicians/govt officials who want a kickback in every department. Who would want to risk investing in that environment?

Pakistan goes through boom and bust cycles due to the growth of consumer demand. There will always be a large consumer demand in Pakistan due to the large population.

5+bn USD alone is spent by the govt in keeping failed state owned enterprises afloat such as PSM, PIA, KPC, etc... many of these companies have ghost employees who dont even exist yet have been paid 50bn USD over the last 10 years alone.

Imagine had Pakistan focused even spending 2bn USD a year on manufactering tax incentives over the last 10 years or spent the same amount of $$$ on power plants.

That is policy failure. Think for a second. Why has China shot to the top? Mass education aimed at 99.9% literacy [both male/female] and massive emphasis on producing millions of scientists, engineers, technicians etc

They are the resource behind those motorways, bridges, dams they build in Pakistan. They are the resouce behind the VT-4 Tanks, jet fighters and Chinese industry. Also hard work ethic.

What has this Chinese engineer got that he is in Pakistan building motorways? His faith, his proficiency in Quran hafiz, his prayers or his technical and scientific education?

Chinese engineers are working on the Havelian-Thakot Expressway being constructed under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

View attachment 695723

Pakistani politicians such as the PMLN PPP MQMQ etc want to keep the masses illiterate and jahil as it suits their political purposes of looting the poor dry.

If we as a nation can create nukes starting from dirt within 10 years of putting our mind to it we can definitely achieve 90% literacy in 10 years. We can learn from China of setting up a Social Workers force of 200k fully focuses on providing education, health, family planning services. Motivate and rally the youth, educated in society to participate, make it Islamically mandatory as a Zakat. Think if we have everyone in society give only a day to help someone become 10% more literate what small steps can take. Make it like a tiger force. Send a few hundred to every district, village, city in Pakistan, provide more resources were statistics show people need more help. You get the added benefit of providing them family planning service and resources to control population growth as well.

Some districts in Pakistan has literacy of 90+% while some have 30%. Focus and resources should be put into those who are more disparaged.

 

[Alpha_PK]

Yes, continously improving after PKR exchange rate was changed from fixed to market based:
View attachment 695725View attachment 695726

But how much is it increasing in dollar terms?

Obviously it would have increased a lot in rupee terms due to the severe depreciation of the rupee, that was expected.

 

[El Sidd]

Tribal chieftains don't like educated masses.

End of Discussion.

 

[Norwegian]

Vietnam also import a lot, that is why Vietnam Export figure cannot add their GDP figure since their import figure is quite similar with their export figure. Vietnam GDP is actually not too different with Pakistan GDP (nominal).

Vietnam's GDP was 31 billion in 2000.
Pakistan's was 70 billion.

Now their GDP is higher that ours and the disparity will increase

Exactly. Vietnam won't go bust with that much import as its economy is export based.