Why China is not planning to conquer other nations

[beijingwalker]

Why China is not planning to conquer other nations​

By Percy Allan
Sep 30, 2023

One Belt, One Road, Chinese strategic investment in the 21st century map.
Besides settling and securing its borders, China has no claims on other nations. Countries with grandiose territorial ambitions make no secret of them. This second article in a three-part series explores why China is not planning to conquer and occupy any other nation.

In the first article of this series, exploring how US narratives on the ‘China threat’ have become entrenched in Western security communities, I outlined how a ‘China threat’ narrative had been constructed by Republicans and Democrats in the United States in an attempt to create a “rally round the flag” effect, designed to internally unite a deeply divided America; and began to outline why China is not a threat, including because China has no imperial legacy, and because China’s foreign policy is not -like some other states – ultra-nationalist.

Here are four more reasons why China is not planning to conquer and occupy any other nation.

China has no territorial ambitions
Besides settling and securing its borders, China has no claims on other nations. Countries with grandiose territorial ambitions make no secret of them. Hitler’s Germany wanted more “living space” (Lebensraum) in Eastern Europe and Russia to resettle its burgeoning population. By contrast China’s population is shrinking due to parents embracing a one child policy, in part because housing is too expensive.

Imperial Japan’s mission was to “colonise” the Asia-Pacific region to access natural resources, especially oil, rubber, and iron. Japan did this by invading China, Korea, and other neighbouring countries. China knows it can acquire natural resources through trade not colonisation. Indeed, if its aim was conquest its easiest target would be democratic Mongolia which is over double the land mass of Ukraine, is resource rich, has a small population and tiny army. China like many other countries (including Australia) has invested in Mongolian mining of coal, fluorite (fluorspar), copper, gold, silver, and other metallic ores.

In public speeches and private meetings China’s leadership keeps reiterating it wants “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation”. Nowhere does it threaten to invade a nation.

The exception might appear to be Taiwan, but no major nation recognises it as a sovereign state because they endorse the One China nation policy. It would be tragic if Taiwan, a thriving democracy, was invaded against the will of its people. For reasons discussed later it is doubtful that will happen if its status quo is maintained. What is key to understanding China’s foreign policy is that it considers Taiwan to be unresolved business from its civil war, not a quest to take over a foreign nation.

China is not exporting ideology
China no longer exports communism. The Marxist Leninist (Pro-China) Communist Parties that existed in many countries during the Mao era have long closed. As the world’s factory and largest trading nation, China wants respect and influence so that its vital export markets, essential raw material sources and valuable overseas investments are not imperilled.

It also wants a navy big enough to protect its international shipping from disruption by US and allied navies. China’s new vision of “Shared Prosperity” (redistributing wealth) is designed for domestic consumption, not international audiences. By contrast America’s quest to spread freedom and liberty has seen it blunder into foreign wars, most of which it lost because local peoples had their own cultural and national aspirations and resented foreign troops on their soil.

China’s biggest international thrust has been its Roads and Belt Initiative (BRI) launched in 2013 which involves more than 3,100 projects across almost 150 countries worth over US$1 trillion. It seeks to connect Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks to improve regional integration, increase trade, and foster economic growth. Unlike the USA, China’s focus is on global economic partners not military allies.

China’s appeal to the Global South is threefold; it has not invaded any of them or subverted their governments, its BRI offers both grants and cheap loans for vital economic infrastructure such as roads, airports, seaports, and railways, and it is open to free trade agreements with poorer countries which the European Union and the USA are reluctant to do because of their industry protection policies.

China’s obsession is secession
The Chinese government’s biggest security concern is internal secession movements. Dissidents in Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are not pining for democracy, but independence. China’s response like that of India (Kashmir and Punjab), Sri-Lanka (Tamils), Indonesia (West Papua), Philippines (Mindanao) and Myanmar (Mon state) is military suppression, detention and “re-education” of separatists and their sympathisers.

China wants its ethnic and religious minorities to assimilate with the Han majority rather than promote their distinct cultural identity. That’s offensive to Australia (given its indigenous history) but China considers it more inclusive than that of neighbouring countries which have at various times sought to exclude, expel, or extinguish their minorities (e.g., India, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Indonesia).

In Hong Kong the draconian National Security Law was imposed after militants in the democratic movement (including former members of the banned Hong Kong National Party) resorted to violence, stormed the local legislature, and upped their demands from local autonomy to independence from the mainland. Paranoia about splintering internally is a reason China does not want to get distracted by a military conflict with the American alliance.

China’s focus is economic
The 2019 COVID-19 Pandemic abruptly ended the strong growth of the Chinese economy and exposed structural problems, the most serious of which was China’s dependence on debt driven property and infrastructure development. China is overbuilt given its shrinking population. It needs to deleverage property developers and the local government financing vehicles that funded them. Many Chinese who bought their apartments off the plan have lost their life savings as buildings remain unfinished.

China’s economy must shift from being investment to consumption driven for living standards to rise further. This involves improving public services (such as healthcare and aged pensions) so Chinese households won’t have to save so much for meeting unforeseen contingencies. It also means reforming taxes so that most income earners contribute towards a social welfare net. At present 80% escape taxation because of allowable deductions. And its local government (which delivers most public services) needs to wean itself of land sales to developers as a critical source of revenue.

Chinese industry must move from being labour and capital intensive to being hi-tech and cognitive based for China to escape the middle-income trap bedevilling most developing economies. And America’s ban on China using advanced semiconductor chips made anywhere in the world requires it to develop its own chip making capacity to excel in AI applications. America’s determination to decouple China from the “democratic world” requires China’s economy to become more “circular” so that it is less reliant on imports and exports with the West.

To avoid American containment, China is developing overland transport connections with Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa that are harder to disrupted than sea lanes. Its drive to replace coal imports with solar, wind and nuclear is both for self-sufficiency and emissions reduction. Reducing air pollution is essential for ending its high respiratory diseases. Finally eliminating widespread corruption is critical to stamping out crony capitalism and self-serving mandarins.

Achieving these outcomes is necessary for reviving economic growth, attaining self-reliance and resilience while also achieving environmental sustainability and “common prosperity”. The latter refers to President Xi’s quest to reduce the huge disparity in incomes and wealth between employers and employees and city and rural dwellers. Most pressing is the need to generate extra jobs for young adults, one in five of whom are unemployed.

Success or failure in meeting these diverse challenges will decide whether the Chinese Communist Party maintains its social contract with citizens, given that its legitimacy rests on delivery, not democracy.
Doing so means avoiding war with the West, which would require diverting resources from improving people’s livelihoods and wellbeing to military personnel, equipment, and munitions.
For these reasons, and more, China is not a threat.

In the final in this three part series, I expand on the reasons why China is not planning to conquer and occupy any other nation by arguing that China’s military is defensive. Its emphasis on land and naval forces suggests its focus is on defence of its borders and seaborne trade, not offence.

Why China is not planning to conquer other nations - Pearls and Irritations

This second article in a three-part series explores why China is not planning to conquer and occupy any other nation.

johnmenadue.com

 

[beijingwalker]

The future will be decided by economic influence, not military dominance​

By John Menadue
Oct 5, 2023

America is falling into a trap. It thinks the future will be decided by military dominance, despite losing one war after another. China, on the other hand, recognises that the future will be decided by economics.

Pearls and Irritations has posted an outstanding series of articles by Percy Allan on the so called ‘China Threat‘. He highlighted that America is deeply divided and that promoting the China threat helps unite Americans; that unlike the UK and the US, China has no imperial legacy; that unlike the Soviet Union, China is not exporting ideology; that China is concerned about managing its large ethnic and religious minorities; and that surrounded by scores of US bases, China’s military is defensive.

Most important of all Percy Allan emphasises that China’s focus is economic.

Western media including in Australia has become quite unhinged about the China threat. Our political ‘leadership’ slavishly follows Washington propaganda conducted mainly through the help of security agencies and the Five Eyes.

The China threat agencies are unwilling to stand back and consider the following.

Unlike Australia, China has land borders with fourteen countries. Protecting those borders is critical for China.

The question the anti China hawks should answer is what nations are China planning to conquer and occupy and if so, when? Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia?

While America is stitching up military alliances, China is expanding its economic alliances especially with the Global South which is more interested in development than confrontation. There is a growing and influential world beyond the Anglosphere which we cling to.

China recognises that the future rests with the BRICS which is adding new membership. While America and its closest allies waste money on a military buildup, China is investing in economic partners.

China’s strategy is to outflank America economically, technologically, and diplomatically by making it the partner of choice for third world countries by offering them infrastructure (Belt & Road Initiative), technology (Digital Silk Road) and markets (Strategic Economic Partnerships).

By contrast America offers them military pacts to confront China since it’s too protectionist to grant them free trade, too insular to encourage US investment and too self centred to offer more aid.

America is falling into a trap. It thinks the future will be decided by military dominance despite losing one war after another.

China recognises that the future will be decided by economics, which is especially important for development in the Global South.

The US is intoxicated by its grandiose belief in its own ‘exceptionalism’. It is unable and unwilling to read the signs of the time.

The future will be decided by economic influence, not military dominance - Pearls and Irritations

The US thinks the future will be decided by military dominance, losing war after war. For China, the future will be decided by economics.

johnmenadue.com

 

[Sam6536]

China is an inward looking country, America gained the position of the sole superpower and world police in the new world order (post ww2).
It all started with the attack on Pearl Harbour by Japan before that America didn't care about external geopolitics and didn't support any side explicitly.
America has been involved in Japan, Korean war, ME due to war on terrorism and natural resources.

The future will be decided by economic influence, not military dominance​

By John Menadue
Oct 5, 2023

America is falling into a trap. It thinks the future will be decided by military dominance, despite losing one war after another. China, on the other hand, recognises that the future will be decided by economics.

Pearls and Irritations has posted an outstanding series of articles by Percy Allan on the so called ‘China Threat‘. He highlighted that America is deeply divided and that promoting the China threat helps unite Americans; that unlike the UK and the US, China has no imperial legacy; that unlike the Soviet Union, China is not exporting ideology; that China is concerned about managing its large ethnic and religious minorities; and that surrounded by scores of US bases, China’s military is defensive.

Most important of all Percy Allan emphasises that China’s focus is economic.

Western media including in Australia has become quite unhinged about the China threat. Our political ‘leadership’ slavishly follows Washington propaganda conducted mainly through the help of security agencies and the Five Eyes.

The China threat agencies are unwilling to stand back and consider the following.

Unlike Australia, China has land borders with fourteen countries. Protecting those borders is critical for China.

The question the anti China hawks should answer is what nations are China planning to conquer and occupy and if so, when? Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia?

While America is stitching up military alliances, China is expanding its economic alliances especially with the Global South which is more interested in development than confrontation. There is a growing and influential world beyond the Anglosphere which we cling to.

China recognises that the future rests with the BRICS which is adding new membership. While America and its closest allies waste money on a military buildup, China is investing in economic partners.

China’s strategy is to outflank America economically, technologically, and diplomatically by making it the partner of choice for third world countries by offering them infrastructure (Belt & Road Initiative), technology (Digital Silk Road) and markets (Strategic Economic Partnerships).

By contrast America offers them military pacts to confront China since it’s too protectionist to grant them free trade, too insular to encourage US investment and too self centred to offer more aid.

America is falling into a trap. It thinks the future will be decided by military dominance despite losing one war after another.

China recognises that the future will be decided by economics, which is especially important for development in the Global South.

The US is intoxicated by its grandiose belief in its own ‘exceptionalism’. It is unable and unwilling to read the signs of the time.

The future will be decided by economic influence, not military dominance - Pearls and Irritations

The US thinks the future will be decided by military dominance, losing war after war. For China, the future will be decided by economics.

johnmenadue.com

This is a long known thing, USSR is a prime example. A strong economy is always better than a non sustainable big army.

 

[beijingwalker]

Why China is not a threat: Sinophobia Unites Americans​

By Percy Allan
Sep 29, 2023

Hatred of China is now the single issue that unites Democrats and Republicans. Having a perceived foe helps unite a deeply divided America internally, unless, of course, it becomes a losing cause. This three-part series explores how US narratives on the ‘China threat’ have become entrenched in the West, and why China is not a threat – unless we make it one.

America is deeply divided
American society is more divided than it has been since its civil war of the 1860s. According to a Pew Research poll about six-in ten Republicans and more than half of Democrats have a very unfavourable view of the other party. Thirty years ago, fewer than a quarter in both parties rated the other party badly.

A recent CNN poll showed almost 70 per cent of Republicans don’t accept the electoral legitimacy of the Biden administration. Half of Americans suspect that elected officials might successfully overturn the results of a US election if their party does not win. And almost 60 per cent of voters lack confidence that elections in the US today reflect the will of the people.

Other polls by States United Action and Chicago University’s CPOST research centre found that:

• Nearly two in five Americans supported violence if their preferred candidate were to lose because of “unfair actions” taken by their political opponents,
• One in seven Americans believe that the use of force is justified to achieve their political goals,
• Over half think elections won’t solve America’s most fundamental political and social problems; and,
• Almost half consider political elites, both Democrats and Republicans, are the most immoral and corrupt people in America.

Sinophobia unites Americans
Given this dire political rift what is the easiest way to unite Americans? History shows that confronting a common enemy makes Americans “rally round the flag”. Having a perceived foe helps unite America internally unless of course it becomes a losing cause (e.g., Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan).

No one contends that China wants to invade and occupy America. Instead, President Biden’s chief worry is that China might become the wealthiest and most powerful country in the world. He has vowed to stop that. Also, American politicians know that stoking fear of China is a vote-winner across party lines. Indeed, hatred of China is now the single issue that unites Democrats and Republicans.

The recent primary debate between Republican Presidential hopefuls showed each trying to outdo the other in despising China. And not to be outdone Biden referred to China as “bad people” who when they have problems do “bad things” . It didn’t occur to him that when America has problems it looks for a scapegoat abroad.

The demonisation of China has clearly worked. The 2023 survey by the Pew Research Center found that 83% of Americans hold negative views of China. The share who says China is an “enemy” is now 38%. An IPSOS poll found one-third of Americans view China as an imminent threat and two in five Americans think that war with China is likely in the next five years.

Encircling and containing China
The USA and China had a positive relationship until the election of the Trump administration. President Obama called it “the most important bilateral relationship of the 21st century”.

President Trump convinced Americans that China and Mexico explained America’s economic malaise. The solution was to deter Chinese imports with tariffs and block Mexican immigrants with a wall. When Biden got elected in 2020, he ignored Mexico and instead doubled down on economic sanctions on China and announced that he would not allow China’s economy to overtake America’s even though most economist think that is inevitable given China’s huge population and income gap. He also turned Obama’s pivot to Asia into a military containment policy.

China’s long-standing quest for the reunification of Taiwan, if necessary, by force and its building of a military base on a South China Sea atoll to safeguard vital shipping lanes through the Malacca and Lombok straits were depicted as the first steps to China’s territorial expansion in Asia. By contrast America’s eleven major military bases encircling China’s were justified as upholding the “international rules-based order” even though America refuses to be a signatory to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, won’t accept verdicts by the International Criminal Court and has hobbled the World Trade Organisation by refusing to appoint judges to its appellate board.


Image: Supplied Source: https://solidarity.net.au/highlights/us-bases-positioned-war-china/

Here are seven reasons – set out across a three part series – why China is not planning to conquer and occupy any other nation.

China has no imperial legacy
China does not have a modern history of being an imperial power. Unlike the USA (Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq) and Russia (Afghanistan, Georgia, and Ukraine) China has not occupied a foreign nation. It has land boundary disputes with India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Laos most of which go back to when it was ruled by emperors. Both China and Taiwan share the same maritime border disputes over unpopulated islands with Japan and claim similar rights over the South China Sea.

The World Arbitration Court found that under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea no country has sovereignty over these waters outside the 12 nautical miles from its coastline or has exclusive economic rights beyond 200 nautical miles. Neither China nor America accepts the jurisdiction of that Court. Besides China, Taiwan and Vietnam have undertaken reclamations in the South China Sea and the Philippines grounded a ship on an atoll to make claim to it.

Six countries lay claim to all or parts of the South China Sea (China, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam). China’s claim to controlling this ocean area is not new, but historic. China does not dispute the right of commercial vessels to sail through the South China Sea. It objects to the USA patrolling these waters when China does not patrol the seas off the West and East Coasts of the USA or the Caribbean.

China’s foreign policy is not ultra-nationalist
China’s long-standing foreign policy is expressed in its “Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence” which are “mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence.”

The CCP has consistently suppressed ultra-nationalist sentiment given the country’s “century of humiliation” from other countries colonising it. China’s foreign relations pronouncements continually emphasise “peace, stability and cooperation” not war, turbulence, and conquest. In a speech marking the 50th anniversary of China’s return to the United Nations, President Xi said it would always be the “builder of world peace“, a “protector of international order” and “resolutely opposes all forms of hegemony and power politics, unilateralism and protectionism.” Xi called for greater global cooperation on issues such as regional conflicts, terrorism, climate change, cybersecurity, and biosecurity.
One can be cynical about such assurances, but if China wanted war, it would be demonising its adversary, not calling for an end to a “cold war mentality”.

Xi’s strongest statement is that “Western countries led by the U.S. have implemented comprehensive containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development.” This is a complaint, not a call to war. If President Xi and his Politburo wanted war, he would be belittling President Biden as Biden did to him by tagging him a “dictator”.

Those who want China to fail, overlook the risk of the CCP thereafter being displaced by an ultra-nationalist regime as happened in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Neo-fascist parties like the pro-Putin “United Russia” seek national glory through foreign military adventures.

If that were to occur in China, Peter Dutton’s comparison to Imperial Japan would then become relevant. It is not in any way relevant now.

In the next article in this series, four more reasons why China is not a threat are explored. Including that China has no territorial ambitions; China is not exporting ideology; China’s obsession is secession; and that China’s focus is driven, above all, by economic concerns.

Why China is not a threat: Sinophobia Unites Americans - Pearls and Irritations

Having a perceived foe helps unite a deeply divided America internally, unless, of course, it becomes a losing cause.

johnmenadue.com