India has been developing rapidly in recent years. Many people think that India will become a developed country in the future and even replace China as a great power with world influence.
However, on closer analysis, India is unlikely to become a developed country, let alone a major power with significant global influence.
What kind of country can become a developed country?
There are only two kinds of developed countries in the world today.
1. Small population and abundant resources;
2. Advanced science and technology.
India is a country with a large population and not rich in resources. Therefore, India has a congenital deficiency that makes it impossible for it to become a first class developed country.
India cannot lead an industrial revolution due to its backward manufacturing and low technological level. It will be difficult for India to lead the world in science and technology for decades.
India has three of its most developed industries: software, film and pharmaceuticals.
Although India's software industry has a high output value, it has not mastered the core technology. So far, there is not a world-renowned software company or software brand.Indian programmers only do contract work for Western software companies.And India, with its 1.3 billion people, has failed to produce a world-renowned Internet company.
India has a strong film industry, but it has little to do with high technology.
India has a strong pharmaceutical industry, but it can only make generic drugs, and the level of original research is very low.
India's economy has grown rapidly in recent years on the back of a demographic dividend.The average age in India is relatively low. The average age in India is 27.
Yet India's GDP per head is too low.Although India has 1.3 billion people, it is actually "100 million people + 1.2 billion livestock". India's PER capita GDP is only $2,016.
The current minimum in developed countries is $20,000 per capita, 10 times India's.
India has no time
Perhaps, you would say, given a little more time, India would eventually develop.The problem is, India may not have time.
Generally speaking, as a country grows from a developing country to a developed country, it has to overcome the "middle class trap" before it enters an aging society.If this country enters the aging society early, it will be difficult to become a developed country.
Economists generally agree that $10, 000 of GDP per head is an important milestone.
Assume India can grow at an average of 6% a year for the next few decades.Then it will take 28 years for India to surpass $10,000 per capita GDP until 2048.
By then, the average age in India will be 56.
India has entered an aging society
It is generally believed that the aging society refers to the population structure model in which the proportion of the elderly population in the total population reaches or exceeds a certain proportion.According to the traditional standard of the United Nations, the elderly aged above 60 account for 10% of the total population in a region, and the new standard is that the elderly aged above 65 account for 7% of the total population, that is, the region is considered to be entering an aging society.
India's Aging Report 2017, released by the United Nations Population Fund, says the proportion of people over 60 will rise from 8 percent in 2015 to 19 percent in 2050.By the end of the century, the elderly will make up 34% of the population.
India's growth rate is bound to slow in the future as the population ages.
As a result, India is running out of time and will probably never be able to become a developed country.
However, on closer analysis, India is unlikely to become a developed country, let alone a major power with significant global influence.
What kind of country can become a developed country?
There are only two kinds of developed countries in the world today.
1. Small population and abundant resources;
2. Advanced science and technology.
India is a country with a large population and not rich in resources. Therefore, India has a congenital deficiency that makes it impossible for it to become a first class developed country.
India cannot lead an industrial revolution due to its backward manufacturing and low technological level. It will be difficult for India to lead the world in science and technology for decades.
India has three of its most developed industries: software, film and pharmaceuticals.
Although India's software industry has a high output value, it has not mastered the core technology. So far, there is not a world-renowned software company or software brand.Indian programmers only do contract work for Western software companies.And India, with its 1.3 billion people, has failed to produce a world-renowned Internet company.
India has a strong film industry, but it has little to do with high technology.
India has a strong pharmaceutical industry, but it can only make generic drugs, and the level of original research is very low.
India's economy has grown rapidly in recent years on the back of a demographic dividend.The average age in India is relatively low. The average age in India is 27.
Yet India's GDP per head is too low.Although India has 1.3 billion people, it is actually "100 million people + 1.2 billion livestock". India's PER capita GDP is only $2,016.
The current minimum in developed countries is $20,000 per capita, 10 times India's.
India has no time
Perhaps, you would say, given a little more time, India would eventually develop.The problem is, India may not have time.
Generally speaking, as a country grows from a developing country to a developed country, it has to overcome the "middle class trap" before it enters an aging society.If this country enters the aging society early, it will be difficult to become a developed country.
Economists generally agree that $10, 000 of GDP per head is an important milestone.
Assume India can grow at an average of 6% a year for the next few decades.Then it will take 28 years for India to surpass $10,000 per capita GDP until 2048.
By then, the average age in India will be 56.
India has entered an aging society
It is generally believed that the aging society refers to the population structure model in which the proportion of the elderly population in the total population reaches or exceeds a certain proportion.According to the traditional standard of the United Nations, the elderly aged above 60 account for 10% of the total population in a region, and the new standard is that the elderly aged above 65 account for 7% of the total population, that is, the region is considered to be entering an aging society.
India's Aging Report 2017, released by the United Nations Population Fund, says the proportion of people over 60 will rise from 8 percent in 2015 to 19 percent in 2050.By the end of the century, the elderly will make up 34% of the population.
India's growth rate is bound to slow in the future as the population ages.
As a result, India is running out of time and will probably never be able to become a developed country.
