Gibbs
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Sorry mate, You got your geography all mixed up
Why Bangladesh overtook Pakistan
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Sorry mate, You got your geography all mixed up
Pandora
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Dude quit embarrassing yourself. Reprt also mention
"Cebr forecasts that the economy will expand by 4.0% and 3.5% in 2019 and 2020"
As i said our economy will slow down to 4% but for it to shrink it has to fall below 0% of GDP. Dont quote me with your nonsense again.
Black_cats
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Your figure is in PKR. But when that will be converted to USD it will shrunk. That is why Pakistan dropped from 41st position to 44th position in 2019. But I wish all the best for Pakistan.
Joe Shearer
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His article was an OPINION PIECE, let's just leave it at that.
The point was not whether he was formally trained to offer an opinion or has mastery of facts on certain subjects like economics. The issue is that things are NOT okay in Pakistan the way things are being run now and those living in Pakistan are looking for alternatives. Nothing more - nothing less.
Many educated folks (Pakistani or not) overseas (and quite a few folks in Pakistan) agree with him. Some may not do it openly (Thanks to the fauji-controlled govt. existing in Pakistan), but many of us expats in the West speak to plenty of highly educated Pakistanis on weekly basis and this happens to be the general (and alarming) consensus.
Educated Pakistanis are trying to find a way out of this morass - hence these articles will keep appearing. The intelligentsia in Pakistan cannot keep silent while their country is being dragged down to the gutter by opportunists and feudal demagogues. Looting and chory has to come to an end sometime when there is nothing left to steal.
I don't wish to dispense advice in typical Desi fashion using schadenfreude (finding perverse pleasure in someone else's pain - although some do in this forum I'm quite sure, even if these fakers and false flaggers pose as friends to Pakistanis), but the state of economy in Pakistan will eventually devolve into uncontrollable humanitarian situation if corrective steps are not taken now.
Right now - the GDP in Pakistan is slightly north of $313 Billion (and shrinking), while that of Bangladesh (with about 25% less people, and THAT shrinking), is approaching $275 Billion (and rapidly expanding). GDP for Bangladesh was $249 billion last year. The country's per capita income is $1,752, which was $1,610 in fiscal 2016-17.
https://www.thedailystar.net/busine...s-towards-record-7.65-percent-in-2018-1557706
https://tribune.com.pk/story/1762089/2-size-pakistans-economy-313-13-billion-says-sbp/
Bangladesh did not get to this state of affairs just by selling it's soul to the devil recently (apparently, India), the basis was set a long time ago. The apparel export revolution started in Bangladesh in the late 1970's while Pakistan faltered. The micro-credit revolution in the 1980's and 90's passed Pakistan by in spite of the efforts of the Eedhi foundation. Women kept on staying indoors making babies (ticking time bomb) and not earning their keep and helping the economy like they should have.
Some Pakistanis have argued with me that the orangi bustee is composed 100% of Bangladeshis and all Pakistanis are supposedly rich!
These issues would come back to bite Pakistan and the elite of Pakistan were too busy stealing from the coffers and stashing them in Dubai to notice. It is sad that an outsider has to state these things as a Mehman of yours, but facts are facts. Your enemies certainly won't tell you.
Some Pakistanis kept on pretending that Pakistan has no poor and is a first world country, just build some nice showcase projects like Dubai type roads, highways and defence societies and things will keep being the way they are. Well think again...you need a basis on the economy first.
@Joe Shearer @Black_cats @Homo Sapiens @UKBengali @TopCat your thoughts please...
No point sharing any thoughts on this.
- Liberal, progressive Pakistanis will purse their lips, say 'Good for you' in a kind but absent-minded kind of way, and go back to worrying about their own problems;
- Pakistani jingoes will go red in the face, stutter in rage at the impertinence of bloody Bengalis pretending that they can ever equal the uber-mensch, and call in Nilgiri for a tactical nuclear strike on their own positions - anything, so long as it destroys a few Bangladeshis also;
- @Nilgiri will drop by, mention with facts and figures that Bangladesh is worse off today than in 1904 (the year before the First Partition of Bengal), and remind everyone that he loves Bangladesh at heart; these kind remarks are merely to keep his little friends on their little toes, so that they grow up as decent, right-wing mavens;
- Bangladeshis will pick themselves up from the floor, look around at their growing prosperity, try to figure out why they are found to be slipping backwards, scratch their heads in bewilderment, and go back to learning and earning;
- Joe will write a point-by-point analysis of the situation and go back to putting both palms on his face, all the while forgetting to take his BP medication and getting a worse headache.
Pandora
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Drop of 41 to 44 doesnt mean economy has shrunk it means other countries grew faster and over took. You are talking nothing but nonsense have some shred of dignity and shut up.
Black_cats
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Please look at page 175 of the link I shared. It indicates Pakistan’s GDP dropped from 313 billion USD in 2018 to 283 billion USD in 2019.
Pandora
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Dude you are like a broken recorder you need your head checked. I quoted from your own report you attached which gave data both in PKR and USD terms. You know what let me make it better for you
Bangladesh is a Super power. India and Pakistan are just a figment of our imagination.
Nilgiri
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The trolls here seem to not realise that USD is not what Pakistan or any country (that is not the US or uses USD as legal tender) operate in for their nominal base.
313 billion USD or whatever X amount is not what "carries over" as a base to use for the next year.
Rather in Pakistan's case it would be a PKR nominal (with all inflation included for the total nominal and inflation taken away for "real"...the latter is what is quoted when we are talking about growth).
The total the next year in USD will very much be larger than 313 billion USD, in fact larger than the 4 or 5% growth on top of it (given inflation to depreciation conversion is not 1:1). In fact the depreciation (on account of inflation) is held back more in Bangladesh case compared to Pakistan (given Bangladesh exports far more non-diversified goods, helped by LDC 0 tariff rate and quotas)...thus it gets a certain artificial bump in nominal USD compared to Pakistan.
In fact if it is any country in the region that suffers more from inflation in its GDP per capita USD nominal than Pakistan does (because of this), it is Bangladesh. This is after all why when you take inflation away, you get the following picture:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=BD-PK
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=PK-BD
The ratio is (lower means higher inflation)
Pakistan = 1222/1547 = 79%
Bangladesh = 1093/1516 = 72%
When you factor in purchasing power levels:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locations=PK-BD
The difference between Pakistan and Bangladesh becomes even more apparent. Essentially Bangladesh is physically consuming (once you strip away the artificial inflationary bump and calibrate the consumption levels) around the level of early 2000's found in Pakistan.
You realise that
a) this isnt the IMF or world bank (i.e something that actually matters)...esp given their reasons they have for greying out Pakistan prediction in the projection timeframes?
b) We are just 1.5 months into 2019?
Black_cats
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No one said that. I just asked you to look at page 175 and look at the figure of 2018 and 2019. I did not mention about 2020.
Ignore the Tamil troll as he is bringing PPP comparison which is not what we are discussing. On top of it he is quoting 2017 figures when we are discussing 2019 figure. It will take another 3 year or so for Bangladesh to overtake Pakistan in terms of PPP.
Troll please say it to the UK based agency which has prepared the report. Go and tell them you know more than them who predicted economy of all countries of the world till 2033.
Pandora
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The report infact itself is self contradictory in various places. On one hand it mentioned it mentioned positve growth figures about 2019 and then wrote down a 283 billion GDP which is just utter nonsense.
Nilgiri
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LOL.
You enjoy exaggerating Joe lol. Bangladesh is doing good and getting better....I have no difficulty in admitting that. In fact I have talked with few BD members like @Mage on whats going well and what needs to be improved upon more.....in much more detail than I do with most other BD members because of their jingoism (that @Gibbs and others have also witnessed). It is off putting.
Going back to learning and earning is proving harder for them given their real household income is in decline and being buttressed at some level by their garbage govt institutions (how much is anyone's guess, there really isnt all that much focus on Bangladesh economy from outside or even inside):
https://opinion.bdnews24.com/2017/12/18/where-did-the-benefits-of-economic-growth-disappear/
Or is Mr. Taslim a "South Indian dalit troll" like I am? (A favoured refrain of the one that tagged you and one of the ones that has thanked you)
Do read that article in its entirety, it has some really good information and poses some good questions (like is there real economic growth if calorie consumption is decreasing....and if the data is faulty, why can it suddenly be trusted in other things?....and why is there grandiose govt stasis on addressing this?)
He would be one of the few inside Bangladesh that I would be honoured to have a frank conversation with about the country's economy.
You see to truly "learn and earn" more, you need to consume more energy and have more diversification as to what you sell to outsiders (so you can buy know-how in return to get access to more economic chains and improve your resilience and sound economic hedging). Bangladesh I am afraid consumes today the level of energy that India and Pakistan did around the time you were born Joe....and its growing at lethargic pace. It is also not all that interested in diversfying its export basket, because that would neccesarily mean loosening the grip of the govt on its economy (especially excise rates on basic assembly).
The govt has instead prioritised single industry route and single labour pools.....so it can keep strong control over things. It does not fundamentally trust what it cannot obsessively control. It is counting on grabbing roughly 100 billion dollars of export from what China exports right now in RMG.....but that is slow going (in fact capital goods import has declined the last year when it should be charging ahead). It is having real effects further down the economic chain, Walton for example pushed back its 1 billion dollar export target by a full 10 years. So what is exactly going on? Hey I guess we get to see in the end.....the fat lady has to sing at some point, no matter how long she has kept everyone waiting.
Joe Shearer
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I LOVE exaggerating! Especially when it's an intelligent guy with a mind of his own, and one who breaks away from the pack. They can take it and dish it out as well; I never, EVER pick on someone who isn't equal to or better than I am, and/or who can't hit back.
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Nilgiri
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It is just one report of many that are put out daily by whatever "institute".
IMF and World Bank matter in the end, they actually have a standardised process they follow.
It would take a lot of weird juggling and threading the needle for Pakistan to shrink in USD nominal size yet still grow (in real PKR which is where growth is measured off)....given its a consumption based country and thus inflation to depreciation resilience (elasticity) is there.
IMF will show it in the end when the number for 2019 comes through.
This is way above the head of BD trolls here. Just ignore them....and wait for year to play out.
Black_cats
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Real growth is going towards recreation, travel and tourism, purchasing luxury goods, maintaining higher living standard, spending more on housing, transportation, spending more on children’s education etc. Consumption of food is just one aspect of the growth.
Nilgiri
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Just happens to be a very important one for most people in South Asia. If its in decline in BD (i.e not a bad data artefact of some sort), that is serious cause for concern given its already not at great level and should be charging towards 2500 calories per capita at least...not seeing a decline.
I said same thing during quick survey consumption studies that came out for India, but some better calibrated data ones have come out since that show growth (though not as good as I would like). I would assume Bangladesh HIES should be of the qualitative level of the latter.
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