Why Bangladesh May Not Become Sri Lanka

[Bilal9]

 

[BananaRepublicUK]

It will make @bluesky head explode

The illiterate boy has been crying wolf for a long time.

Bangladesh is the only major country, that I know, that has reduced it debt to GDP ratio this millennium. At the start of this millennium it was 52% and currently at only 38%.

Furthermore, Bangladesh only borrows for investment. Never to fund current spending like defence and education.

@UKBengali looks like another outlet supports your view. Whereas only the Hindu Hanif Sanket (Pinaki) supports the illiterates.

 

[mb444]

It will make @bluesky head explode

The illiterate boy has been crying wolf for a long time.

Bangladesh is the only major country, that I know, that has reduced it debt to GDP ratio this millennium. At the start of this millennium it was 52% and currently at only 38%.

Furthermore, Bangladesh only borrows for investment. Never to fund current spending like defence and education.

@UKBengali looks like another outlet supports your view. Whereas only the Hindu Hanif Sanket (Pinaki) supports the illiterates.

To say the debt issue is not a problem is ridiculous even though BD in comparison to our neigbours have low borrowings.

As our economy has expanded the debt to GDP ratio has gone down and in this front we are very similar to indonesia.

However our economy is no where as stong as indonesia and it is not equipped to handle any systemic shocks well as the russia/ukraine issue demonstrates.

Debt for BD is a huge issue, it needs to financed via foreign currency without respite irrespective of whatever else is going on. Capital investments are good but the benefits takes time to realise and often not directly possible to calculate. Additionally these benefit will be in TK not USD.

BD is doing better than before and signs are encouraging. But you do disservice to be so cavalier on this topic.

Grace periods on BAL loans are ending and payments are becoming due. This rise in debt servicing will represent 1% of BD GDP or approximately 10% of govt expenditure from 2023. Here i am talking about the rise from 2022 to 2023 and not the actual debt servicing levels which will be around 2.5% of gdp or approximately 25% of Govt expenditure.

This is happening without any offsetting increase in tax revenue. BD has a bumpy road ahead.

 

[BananaRepublicUK]

To say the debt issue is not a problem is ridiculous even though BD in comparison to our neigbours have low borrowings.

As our economy has expanded the debt to GDP ratio has gone down and in this front we are very similar to indonesia.

However our economy is no where as stong as indonesia and it is not equipped to handle any systemic shocks well as the russia/ukraine issue demonstrates.

Debt for BD is a huge issue, it needs to financed via foreign currency without respite irrespective of whatever else is going on. Capital investments are good but the benefits takes time to realise and often not directly possible to calculate. Additionally these benefit will be in TK not USD.

BD is doing better than before and signs are encouraging. But you do disservice to be so cavalier on this topic.

Grace periods on BAL loans are ending and payments are becoming due. This rise in debt servicing will represent 1% of BD GDP or approximately 10% of govt expenditure from 2023. Here i am talking about the rise from 2022 to 2023 and not the actual debt servicing levels which will be around 2.5% of gdp or approximately 25% of Govt expenditure.

This is happening without any offsetting increase in tax revenue. BD has a bumpy road ahead.

Since when do we compare ourselves with Indonesia??!!!

A country with vast landmass and vast natural resources.

And a country left in a much better state by their colonial masters than BD.

Furthermore, BD was regularly referred to as a basket case. This perception was only changed by Hasina five years ago.

Stop constantly complaining!!!??

The glass is half full it is not half empty!!!

If Hasina was in charge since 2000 - we would be a solid mid income country now.

But under BNP and Ershad rule we had an experiment with Mullahism - under US pressure- which held us back.

We are much better off since we hanged all the prominent mullahs.

 

[mb444]

Since when do we compare ourselves with Indonesia??!!!

Since atleast early 2000. A little bit a reading will assist you. The reasons why it is a peer country can be deduced from the following infographics that I have posted before.

GDP to Debt Ratio almost the same.

Economy, for BD, Indonesia is an aspirational target.

Population, in similar category

A country with vast landmass and vast natural resources.

And a country left in a much better state by their colonial masters than BD.

Umm...indonesia is a barometer that is used by BD and many economists. I have yet to see anyone having an issue with that.

Furthermore, BD was regularly referred to as a basket case.

No it was not. It was referred to that by kissinger in the 70's once and referred to as nauseum since then.

This perception was only changed by Hasina five years ago.

Nope. Every successive govt in BD laid the groundwork that has coalesced into successes and failures that the nation displays.

Hasina benefited from the base created by others.

Stop constantly complaining!!!??

The glass is half full it is not half empty!!!

No, i am afraid you have mistaken me for someone else. You have only been here a few months and have come to judgement too quickly. Where something merits praise it will be praised but that also goes the other way.

If Hasina was in charge since 2000 - we would be a solid mid income country now.

Nope, we would have been in this exact phase of development irrespective of whoever was in charge. GoB has very little to do with the economy and economic policies are exactly the same across the political spectrum.

But under BNP and Ershad rule we had an experiment with Mullahism - under US pressure- which held us back.

That has not been my personal experience.

We are much better off since we hanged all the prominent mullahs.

What has hanging of Jamat leadership in showtrials got to do with the economy? Was hasina not in coalition with Jamat only a few years before. How do you explain that?

As you seem to credit hasina with everything will you be crediting her for the 10 hour nationwide electricity outage for 140m people yesterday? This has never happened before on anyone else's watch and BAL has been in power for over a decade so where to hide here. What say you then?

You see I am an unapologetic BD nationalist, a democrat and a libertarian. This is materially different from being a BAL sychophant.

 

[BananaRepublicUK]

Since atleast early 2000. A little bit a reading will assist you. The reasons why it is a peer country can be deduced from the following infographics that I have posted before.

GDP to Debt Ratio almost the same.

View attachment 884886

Economy, for BD, Indonesia is an aspirational target.

View attachment 884888
Population, in similar category

View attachment 884889




Umm...indonesia is a barometer that is used by BD and many economists. I have yet to see anyone having an issue with that.





No it was not. It was referred to that by kissinger in the 70's once and referred to as nauseum since then.



Nope. Every successive govt in BD laid the groundwork that has coalesced into successes and failures that the nation displays.

Hasina benefited from the base created by others.


No, i am afraid you have mistaken me for someone else. You have only been here a few months and have come to judgement too quickly. Where something merits praise it will be praised but that also goes the other way.


Nope, we would have been in this exact phase of development irrespective of whoever was in charge. GoB has very little to do with the economy and economic policies are exactly the same across the political spectrum.


That has not been my personal experience.



What has hanging of Jamat leadership in showtrials got to do with the economy? Was hasina not in coalition with Jamat only a few years before. How do you explain that?

As you seem to credit hasina with everything will you be crediting her for the 10 hour nationwide electricity outage for 140m people yesterday? This has never happened before on anyone else's watch and BAL has been in power for over a decade so where to hide here. What say you then?

You see I am an unapologetic BD nationalist, a democrat and a libertarian. This is materially different from being a BAL sychophant.

All the bombing by Bangla bro and other jamatis seems to have passed you by

Under the pretext of terrorism both Burma and India would have ganged up to send BD back to Stone Age.

Of course, in your dream, brave Bangladeshis would have fought back.

Like the Kashmiris and Afghans

@UKBengali where do we collect these people from?

I live in white middle class paradise so don’t tend to meet these people in person

My white friends and neighbours cannot even stand the white working class.

Working class calls them woke. And the middle class responds by herding them as “illiterate delusional trumpsters”.

 

[UKBengali]

@mb444 - Not sure where this figure that BD would need to start paying back 2.5% of GDP and 25% of government expenditure is coming from?

BD revenue is 12% of GDP and expenditure near 20% for a start. Remember BD government also gets profits from some state owned enterprises every year to add to it's tax income.

BD is likely to need paying back around 1.5% of GDP every year once both the Chinese and Russia grace periods come to an end around the middle of this decade. BD will need pay no more than 10 billion US dollars max every year from an economy of 6-700 billion US dollars. This from revenues of 90-100 billion US dollars and exports around the 100 billion US dollars as well.


@BananaRepublicUK is right in that there is not much to worry about as BD exports are likely to keep growing at least as fast as the needed foreign exchange required to service debt. And of course capital expenditure will generate dollars as this is helping BD to increase it's export revenues.

It is also simply not right that BD would be at the same level of development no matter who was in power. We already talked about long-term planning as regards infrastructure and long term policy cannot happen if there is changes every 5 years of government. While BD would have progressed it would not have made much progress that it has done in terms of especially sectors like IT that have been championed by AL since they came into power in 2009.

PS - IT exports have grown 35-40% a year average AFTER AL came into power in 2009 and launched their "Digital BD" initiative.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

Forget BD, there is little chance of even Pakistan ending up like SL.

Regards

 

[BananaRepublicUK]

@mb444 - Not sure where this figure that BD would need to start paying back 2.5% of GDP and 25% of government expenditure is coming from?

BD revenue is 12% of GDP and expenditure near 20% for a start. Remember BD government also gets profits from some state owned enterprises every year to add to it's tax income.

BD is likely to need paying back around 1.5% of GDP every year once both the Chinese and Russia grace periods come to an end around the middle of this decade. BD will need pay no more than 10 billion US dollars max every year from an economy of 6-700 billion US dollars. This from revenues of 90-100 billion US dollars and exports around the 100 billion US dollars as well.


@BananaRepublicUK is right in that there is not much to worry about as BD exports are likely to keep growing at least as fast as the needed foreign exchange required to service debt. And of course capital expenditure will generate dollars as this is helping BD to increase it's export revenues.

It is also simply not right that BD would be at the same level of development no matter who was in power. We already talked about long-term planning as regards infrastructure and long term policy cannot happen if there is changes every 5 years of government. While BD would have progressed it would not have made much progress that it has done in terms of especially sectors like IT that have been championed by AL since they came into power in 2009.

PS - IT exports have grown 35-40% a year average AFTER AL came into power in 2009 and launched their "Digital BD" initiative.

@UKBengali if it doesn’t matter who leads BD - economy will keep growing - let’s bring back Tariq chora

It will be entertaining

As long as he comes no where near Sylhet, of course!!!! And doesn’t revoke direct flights to Osmany.

He can rename Shahjalal airport after his father - given Sylhetis don’t even want to sh*t in that airport

Forget BD, there is little chance of even Pakistan ending up like SL.

Regards

Sri Lankans basically sold their soul to their version of ModiG.

They loved his demonisation of Muslims.

And annihilation of Tamils.

It’s divided along ethnic lines. And not destined for anything other than lower middle income.

 

[UKBengali]

@UKBengali if it doesn’t matter who leads BD - economy will keep growing - let’s bring back Tariq chora

It will be entertaining

As long as he comes no where near Sylhet, of course!!!! And doesn’t revoke direct flights to Osmany.

He can rename Shahjalal airport after his father - given Sylhetis don’t even want to sh*t in that airport

He is a good guy but he has turned against AL and thinks that democracy would be better than having BAL in power.

Unfortunately it would be much worse at this stage as BD needs another 10-15 years before it becomes a mature enough society where democracy could work.

 

[BananaRepublicUK]

He is a good guy but he has turned against AL and thinks that democracy would be better than having BAL in power.

Unfortunately it would be much worse at this stage as BD needs another 10-15 years before it becomes a mature enough society where democracy could work.

America has done quite well without democracy.

If democracy was a route to prosperity - America would be a democracy!

 

[epebble]

Forget BD, there is little chance of even Pakistan ending up like SL.

Regards

Why? What are the advantages PK has over SL? What are the disadvantages SL has over PK? Just economic analysis, no political or social analysis.

 

[BananaRepublicUK]

Why? What are the advantages PK has over SL? What are the disadvantages SL has over PK? Just economic analysis, no political or social analysis.

Pakistan has a much more diverse economy and bigger source of remittance.

Given its nuclear arsenal - Uncle Sam won’t let it go bankrupt or completely under Chinese control.

With all due respect - no one gives a shit about Sri Lanka.

 

[mb444]

All the bombing by Bangla bro and other jamatis seems to have passed you by

Under the pretext of terrorism both Burma and India would have ganged up to send BD back to Stone Age.

Of course, in your dream, brave Bangladeshis would have fought back.

Like the Kashmiris and Afghans

@UKBengali where do we collect these people from?

I live in white middle class paradise so don’t tend to meet these people in person

My white friends and neighbours cannot even stand the white working class.

Working class calls them woke. And the middle class responds by herding them as “illiterate delusional trumpsters”.

You are making no sense, Bangla Bhai was during Khaleda Zias regime.

You fail to explain BAL Jamat aliance of the past.

You are extremely confused.

 

[bluesky]

There are more reasons that BD will be another SL in the not-so-distant time.

- Remittances are down. Expatriates prefer sending money by Hundi because they get more than Tk110 to Tk120 for a dollar. The Banks pay less than Tk100.

- The external trade deficits are $4.5 billion in just the first two months of this fiscal.

- The repayment volume of our foreign loans will rise to $5 billion in 2024 and it will increase year after year after each of the loans gets matured although our big economists in this Forum were expecting free lunch forever.