OrionHunter
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Despite considerable optimism in the West that Sharif’s return would enable the two countries to turn a new page, Afghans expect very little.
Questions remain, however, about which Nawaz Sharif should Afghanistan be dealing with.
The first is the one that has a history of supporting the Afghan Taliban, cozying up to militants in Punjab province, and trying to repair relations with Pakistan’s powerful army, which may involve making concessions on Afghan policy. The second Sharif is the one who sees his primary mandate as fixing Pakistan’s struggling economy, meaning ensuring regional stability and normalizing ties with Kabul. How can Sharif reconcile these contradictions?
At present, doubts linger among Afghans that Sharif’s policies will be any different from his predecessors, or that he has any ability to reverse Pakistan’s ongoing interference in Afghan affairs and support for militancy. Afghan wariness stems largely from the fact that Sharif backed Afghan factional leaders and mujahideen resistance groups against the Soviet-backed Afghan government in the 1980s. He was influential in forming an alliance of Afghan mujahideen in Peshawar, Pakistan, before sending it over the border to take power in Kabul, and was the only foreign leader to visit Kabul during mujahideen’s rule in 1992.
And it was during Sharif’s second term as prime minister that Islamabad recognized the Taliban government in 1997. Afghan leaders also are convinced that Pakistan’s security apparatus hosts and supports the Taliban as a deliberate strategy to undermine Afghan statehood. With his pro-Taliban tendencies, he even attempted to implement a Taliban-style law and order of governing in Pakistan in 1998. However, the ground realities have radically changed since the 1990s, the security dynamics have shifted, and importantly, new players and factors have emerged, including some that are fervently anti-Pakistan.
Pakistan’s political elites recognize that continued insurgency in Afghanistan after 2014 poses a major threat to Pakistan’s internal stability, especially if a settlement with the Afghan Taliban were not reached ahead of the international drawdown next year. During his election campaign, Sharif expressed support for a negotiated peace deal with the Taliban, yet he continues to tolerate armed militant groups operating in Pakistan. Sharif’s party, Pakistan Muslim League-(N), has not cracked down on militant groups, especially the powerful Lashkar-e-Taiba, based in his power base, Punjab province.
Although Islamabad holds some sway in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table, it has delivered very little so far, and both Washington and Kabul remains highly skeptical of its motives. Karzai has repeatedly charged Islamabad's complicity in fueling Afghan insurgency and has accused Pakistan of trying to split Afghanistan into fiefdoms.
Nonetheless, Sharif’s strong political mandate and his decision to assume the foreign and defense cabinet portfolios himself offer hope of greater civilian oversight in Pakistan’s Afghan policy, which has traditionally been shaped by the military. Although it is highly unlikely that Pakistan's military will simply yield Afghan policy to a civilian government, Sharif could push for a policy of noninterference, emphasizing the significance of developing a consensus within the establishment on supporting a stable Afghan government over backing a particular group or party.
But Sharif must realize that if the insurgency in Afghanistan worsens after 2014, the likelihood of an emboldened Afghan Taliban stepping up their support for Pakistani militants is high and only raises the prospect of more trouble and instability for Pakistan itself.
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/why-afghanistan-doesnt-trust-nawaz-sharif-9058
The way things are going it seems a civil war will most likely break out in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal. And that's bad news for the region especially Pakistan due to its contiguous border with Afghanistan.
Questions remain, however, about which Nawaz Sharif should Afghanistan be dealing with.
The first is the one that has a history of supporting the Afghan Taliban, cozying up to militants in Punjab province, and trying to repair relations with Pakistan’s powerful army, which may involve making concessions on Afghan policy. The second Sharif is the one who sees his primary mandate as fixing Pakistan’s struggling economy, meaning ensuring regional stability and normalizing ties with Kabul. How can Sharif reconcile these contradictions?
At present, doubts linger among Afghans that Sharif’s policies will be any different from his predecessors, or that he has any ability to reverse Pakistan’s ongoing interference in Afghan affairs and support for militancy. Afghan wariness stems largely from the fact that Sharif backed Afghan factional leaders and mujahideen resistance groups against the Soviet-backed Afghan government in the 1980s. He was influential in forming an alliance of Afghan mujahideen in Peshawar, Pakistan, before sending it over the border to take power in Kabul, and was the only foreign leader to visit Kabul during mujahideen’s rule in 1992.
And it was during Sharif’s second term as prime minister that Islamabad recognized the Taliban government in 1997. Afghan leaders also are convinced that Pakistan’s security apparatus hosts and supports the Taliban as a deliberate strategy to undermine Afghan statehood. With his pro-Taliban tendencies, he even attempted to implement a Taliban-style law and order of governing in Pakistan in 1998. However, the ground realities have radically changed since the 1990s, the security dynamics have shifted, and importantly, new players and factors have emerged, including some that are fervently anti-Pakistan.
Pakistan’s political elites recognize that continued insurgency in Afghanistan after 2014 poses a major threat to Pakistan’s internal stability, especially if a settlement with the Afghan Taliban were not reached ahead of the international drawdown next year. During his election campaign, Sharif expressed support for a negotiated peace deal with the Taliban, yet he continues to tolerate armed militant groups operating in Pakistan. Sharif’s party, Pakistan Muslim League-(N), has not cracked down on militant groups, especially the powerful Lashkar-e-Taiba, based in his power base, Punjab province.
Although Islamabad holds some sway in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table, it has delivered very little so far, and both Washington and Kabul remains highly skeptical of its motives. Karzai has repeatedly charged Islamabad's complicity in fueling Afghan insurgency and has accused Pakistan of trying to split Afghanistan into fiefdoms.
Nonetheless, Sharif’s strong political mandate and his decision to assume the foreign and defense cabinet portfolios himself offer hope of greater civilian oversight in Pakistan’s Afghan policy, which has traditionally been shaped by the military. Although it is highly unlikely that Pakistan's military will simply yield Afghan policy to a civilian government, Sharif could push for a policy of noninterference, emphasizing the significance of developing a consensus within the establishment on supporting a stable Afghan government over backing a particular group or party.
But Sharif must realize that if the insurgency in Afghanistan worsens after 2014, the likelihood of an emboldened Afghan Taliban stepping up their support for Pakistani militants is high and only raises the prospect of more trouble and instability for Pakistan itself.
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/why-afghanistan-doesnt-trust-nawaz-sharif-9058
The way things are going it seems a civil war will most likely break out in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal. And that's bad news for the region especially Pakistan due to its contiguous border with Afghanistan.
