what would 2018 election look like ?

[ziaulislam]

what do you think would 2018 election look like in each province and center

 

[ziaulislam]

 

[Proudpakistaniguy]

My assessment is that PML(N) will definitively win most seats overall than any other political party ..Winning clear majority in Punjab is guaranteed that you will make Government with political alliances of independent candidates and small parties

PTI will be second force i.e runner up in Punjab . I will be surprise if PTI manage to get more NA seats overall than PML(N)

PPP is just limited to SINDH where they will get most seats

PTI will lead in KPK except Hindko speaking areas (Hazara division of kpk)where PML(N) will get seats. Its either molvizz or ANP who will be runner up in KPK

 

[Fledgingwings]

Lota bazaar as usual.

 

[ziaulislam]

My assessment is that PML(N) will definitively win most seats overall than any other political party ..Winning clear majority in Punjab is guaranteed that you will make Government with political alliances of independent candidates and small parties

PTI will be second force i.e runner up in Punjab . I will be surprise if PTI manage to get more NA seats overall than PML(N)

PPP is just limited to SINDH where they will get most seats

PTI will lead in KPK except Hindko speaking areas (Hazara division of kpk)where PML(N) will get seats. Its either molvizz or ANP who will be runner up in KPK

i would say pretty much similar to what we saw in 2013, this is supported by polls as well
what happens next will be interesting, i expect strong opposition and axing of NAB/judicary

will current strong media campign and judicary hurt PMLN..answer is yes but who will people vote for..there is no punjabi alternative for PMLN...pakistan provinces of punjab and sindh have becoame deeply fragmented, both have rejected national politics thus PPPP is moving into sindh and PMLN getting restricted to punjab

My assessment is that PML(N) will definitively win most seats overall than any other political party ..Winning clear majority in Punjab is guaranteed that you will make Government with political alliances of independent candidates and small parties

PTI will be second force i.e runner up in Punjab . I will be surprise if PTI manage to get more NA seats overall than PML(N)

PPP is just limited to SINDH where they will get most seats

PTI will lead in KPK except Hindko speaking areas (Hazara division of kpk)where PML(N) will get seats. Its either molvizz or ANP who will be runner up in KPK

if molvi, ANP, and PML N form a mix coalition they might make it tuff for PTI to form govt

 

[VCheng]

what do you think would 2018 election look like in each province and center

Whether elections will be allowed to be held in time is an assumption for the time being, and if so, under what conditions, including selective permissions for candidates and parties.

 

[Proudpakistaniguy]

i would say pretty much similar to what we saw in 2013, this is supported by polls as well
what happens next will be interesting, i expect strong opposition and axing of NAB/judicary

will current strong media campign and judicary hurt PMLN..answer is yes but who will people vote for..there is no punjabi alternative for PMLN...pakistan provinces of punjab and sindh have becoame deeply fragmented, both have rejected national politics thus PPPP is moving into sindh and PMLN getting restricted to punjab


if molvi, ANP, and PML N form a mix coalition they might make it tuff for PTI to form govt

You are right. If PTI dont get clear majority in KPK then it will be tough for them to even make government in kpk I believe if Imran khan would have concentrated more in KPK rather than non stop opposition in Punjab then he would have more chance winning in Punjab ..Go nawaz go has been successful but still i see no chance for IK because Nawaz is playing victim card now ..funny his party is in centre but still they are playing role of opposition just before election

 

[Flash_Ninja]

PMLN coalition in Punjab most likely, people will start to lose a lot of confidence in govt over the summer as they realise that PMLN's failed their only promise (no loadshedding!). Compared to the last election, people this time around are also a lot more educated and I dont think they will be as eager to continue the status quo. Noon-league is also a lot more fractured now, especially with the choices in leadership happening, I think influential people will start walking very soon.

Everywhere else will probably end up similar to 2013, with the exception of Baluchistan and Karachi, where currently its hard to tell who will gain the upper hand.

The centre will without a doubt be a coalition, although who will form it will become more clear over time.

 

[ziaulislam]

You are right. If PTI dont get clear majority in KPK then it will be tough for them to even make government in kpk I believe if Imran khan would have concentrated more in KPK rather than non stop opposition in Punjab then he would have more chance winning in Punjab ..Go nawaz go has been successful but still i see no chance for IK because Nawaz is playing victim card now ..funny his party is in centre but still they are playing role of opposition just before election

PMLN coalition in Punjab most likely, people will start to lose a lot of confidence in govt over the summer as they realise that PMLN's failed their only promise (no loadshedding!). Compared to the last election, people this time around are also a lot more educated and I dont think they will be as eager to continue the status quo. Noon-league is also a lot more fractured now, especially with the choices in leadership happening, I think influential people will start walking very soon.

Everywhere else will probably end up similar to 2013, with the exception of Baluchistan and Karachi, where currently its hard to tell who will gain the upper hand.

The centre will without a doubt be a coalition, although who will form it will become more clear over time.

not concentrating in KPK might have hurt him abit in KPK ~10-20% seats but has no impact on national level

point is people of punjab and sindh are simply not ready for national politics, there regional issues comes first and there is big distrust (especially what PPPP did in 2008-12 in punjab), unless PTI some how reebrand itself as punjab party it will not work

 

[Flash_Ninja]

not concentrating in KPK might have hurt him abit in KPK ~10-20% seats but has no impact on national level

point is people of punjab and sindh are simply not ready for national politics, theit regional issues comes first and their is big distrust (especially what PPPP did in 2008-12 in punjab), unless PTI some how reebrand itself as punjab party it will not work

Very true, but if you remember PMLN won big in 2013 by playing the victim card and making all kinds of ridiculous promises, 5 years later they have unquestionable control and yet have made zero development.

People will see this, and I believe they are more educated this time round so they'll start caring about national politics too. When the power consumption spikes before the election, and people have no electricity, their traditional voters will realise how noon-league has lied to them and done virtually nothing for their entire term.

 

[ziaulislam]

Very true, but if you remember PMLN won big in 2013 by playing the victim card and making all kinds of ridiculous promises, 5 years later they have unquestionable control and yet have made zero development.

People will see this, and I believe they are more educated this time round so they'll start caring about national politics too. When the power consumption spikes before the election, and people have no electricity, their traditional voters will realise how noon-league has lied to them and done virtually nothing for their entire term.

they have to some extent resolved laod shedding.. or atleast imporved it...
PML N did a clean sweep in punjab (10:1), so this time it wount do a clean sweep but still will easily outclass PTI, remeber even in 2008 when PPPP did clean sweep in sindh , parts of KPK and Baluchistan it was a weak colaition govt with PML N in punjab

i am 99% certian that PMLN will win simply because it will win in punjab and PPPP will take sindh, this will leave PTI suffering...
unless PTI some how takes urban sindh and urban punjab(like it took urban KPK), it has no hope
PTI whole moto is educated class of pakistan yet it failed to gain support in educated class of punjab/sindh

 

[Proudpakistaniguy]

not concentrating in KPK might have hurt him abit in KPK ~10-20% seats but has no impact on national level

point is people of punjab and sindh are simply not ready for national politics, theit regional issues comes first and their is big distrust (especially what PPPP did in 2008-12 in punjab), unless PTI some how reebrand itself as punjab party it will not work

Its about convincing people . Vote is voluntarily act and you need to convince majority including boht educated/non educated or rural/urban population that you are better option for them than all others options available. You just cannot convince people to vote for you by degrading your opponents and abusing their supporters 24/7 . Performance in actions speak louder than words and rhetoric.

PTI replaced PPP as second biggest force in Punjab and giving close competition to PML(N) because victory of margin in many constituency of Punjab was not huge. Dont forget that its same PTI which hardly managed to get one or two seat when it was formed. PTI has compromised its basic principles by taking left overs from others parties and giving them important position and at the same time claiming to be different.

 

[Flash_Ninja]

they have to some extent resolved laod shedding.. or atleast imporved it...
PML N did a clean sweep in punjab (10:1), so this time it wount do a clean sweep but still will easily outclass PTI, remeber even in 2008 when PPPP did clean sweep in sindh , parts of KPK and Baluchistan it was a weak colaition govt with PML N in punjab

i am 99% certian that PMLN will win simply because it will win in punjab and PPPP will take sindh, this will leave PTI suffering...
unless PTI some how takes urban sindh and urban punjab(like it took urban KPK), it has no hope
PTI whole moto is educated class of pakistan yet it failed to gain support in educated class of punjab/sindh

Loadshedding is non-existent in some areas, but in many others its still continuing, and right now the damand is far lower than it will be in a few months due to AC/fans/ etc. In 2008 there was a big boycott by the smaller parties as well, so PPP was able to sweep most of Pakistan.

As for PTI voters, it may traditionally have been the educated lot voting them, but they have support as diverse as any other party now so they shouldn't be underestimated as the 'intellectuals' party. I think the new PMLN leader will be the big factor in how much they win, if its blatant nepotism (Maryam, Kulsoom) then there will be a big fracture, but if its a respected senior member then they might do well.

 

[Bashido]

First of all, it depends who mobilize the voters. If turn out is high then there will tough competition. But, if Turn out remains same which is 45-53% then status quo will remain same. We have to educate the voters about the power of vote and put every thing aside. Change will be evident

 

[Ace of Spades]

PMLN in Punjab with coalition of other small parties, PTI will be runner up in punjab, PPP in sindh, PTI marginally in baluchistan and KPK, in baluchistan there will be a big tussle due to ANP and JUI siding with PMLN. And in KP don't underestimate Jamat e Islami's power to dent PTI. They will not win but can take away small part of PTI electorate. Making it weaker against it's opponents. That's how i see the upcoming elections.

In center it will be a government of coalition probably between PTI, PPP and Jamat e islami.