Critics of Xi’s vision this week will get their annual chance to try to rattle China’s top leader and thousands of provincial officials who make up the country’s National People’s Congress (NPC), the annual political gathering of the nation. Though the event is mainly a ceremonial affair, with decisions already made behind closed doors by the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), it matters — as a signal of the government’s priorities for the year to come.
This year’s meeting is especially important because it comes at the end of China’s latest five-year plan (2021-2025), and it will yield some clues about the next one, covering 2026-2030. Also attracting international scrutiny would be China’s economic plans and trade policies, as well its diplomatic posture in the face of chronic problems, including a beleaguered real estate sector and worsening relations with the United States.
Here’s what to look for at this year’s National People’s Congress:
China’s economy is contending with a series of headwinds:
China’s economy is another focus, according to Jacob Gunter, an economic analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies. “The economy has ceased to exist for the purpose of raising household incomes and expanding the middle class,” he said. “It’s an economy that is now geopolitically oriented, where technology and industry are more important than ever.”
China’s leaders, including President Xi Jinping, also have signaled their continued support for the big tech companies. In February, Xi held meetings with the founder of Alibaba, Jack Ma, and the chief of Huawei, Ren Zhengfei, emphasizing the importance of private business in China’s economic strategy. The NPC is also expected to look over a draft law on promoting a fair business environment for private enterprises.
The U.S. recently implemented new 10% tariffs on some Chinese imports, with another 10% to come. China retaliated by increasing tariffs on American coal, liquefied natural gas, crude oil, agricultural equipment and automobile, among other products.
Beijing’s response, measured but firm, left the door open for negotiation but also showed its willingness to escalate if necessary, according to analysts at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Many analysts anticipate that Xi will communicate China’s position through private colloquies, as he did two years ago, when he blamed the United States for being at the forefront of “containing, encircling and suppressing” China.
Also under scrutiny will be China’s position on the Ukraine war and its relationship with Russia. At a recent Group of 20 (G20) meeting, Wang Yi proposed that a “window for peace” was opening in Ukraine, and emphasized China’s support for diplomatic efforts.
Votes on legislation tend to be unanimous or nearly so, adding to the party’s grip. However, the NPC is a rare window into government priorities and policy direction.
Along with it, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body, will gather to debate key issues facing the country. The Two Sessions, as these meetings are collectively known, provide a window into China’s economic and political strategies.
This year’s meeting is especially important because it comes at the end of China’s latest five-year plan (2021-2025), and it will yield some clues about the next one, covering 2026-2030. Also attracting international scrutiny would be China’s economic plans and trade policies, as well its diplomatic posture in the face of chronic problems, including a beleaguered real estate sector and worsening relations with the United States.
Here’s what to look for at this year’s National People’s Congress:
China’s Economic Growth Target
The target for China’s economic growth in 2025, to be announced by Premier Li Qiang in the opening session, is the most closely watched announcement. It is widely expected to be fixed again at about 5%, as in the past two years, but that will not be easy.China’s economy is contending with a series of headwinds:
- A faltering real estate sector with has damped consumer confidence.
- Domestic consumption remains sluggish, and the government’s efforts to stimulate spending have fallen flat.
- Heightening friction with the U.S., the country’s No. 1 source of trade and investment.
Government Priorities
An editorial from China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency wrote recently that “the government’s main focus will be on:- Fueling economic growth by increasing domestic demand
- Strengthening self-reliance by promoting innovation in science and technology.
- Give more help to the private sector to make profits expand businesses.
China’s economy is another focus, according to Jacob Gunter, an economic analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies. “The economy has ceased to exist for the purpose of raising household incomes and expanding the middle class,” he said. “It’s an economy that is now geopolitically oriented, where technology and industry are more important than ever.”
China’s leaders, including President Xi Jinping, also have signaled their continued support for the big tech companies. In February, Xi held meetings with the founder of Alibaba, Jack Ma, and the chief of Huawei, Ren Zhengfei, emphasizing the importance of private business in China’s economic strategy. The NPC is also expected to look over a draft law on promoting a fair business environment for private enterprises.
Foreign Policy & U.S. China Relationships
Foreign Minister Wang Yi will give a speech laying out China’s foreign policy priorities, including its views of the U.S.-China relationship, Taiwan and global conflicts. The move is part of a continuing escalation of economic and diplomatic tensions between the world’s largest and second largest economies.The U.S. recently implemented new 10% tariffs on some Chinese imports, with another 10% to come. China retaliated by increasing tariffs on American coal, liquefied natural gas, crude oil, agricultural equipment and automobile, among other products.
Beijing’s response, measured but firm, left the door open for negotiation but also showed its willingness to escalate if necessary, according to analysts at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Many analysts anticipate that Xi will communicate China’s position through private colloquies, as he did two years ago, when he blamed the United States for being at the forefront of “containing, encircling and suppressing” China.
Also under scrutiny will be China’s position on the Ukraine war and its relationship with Russia. At a recent Group of 20 (G20) meeting, Wang Yi proposed that a “window for peace” was opening in Ukraine, and emphasized China’s support for diplomatic efforts.
The National People’s Congress in Action
Members of the National People’s Congress (NPC), the country’s top legislature, are nearly 3,000 delegates from provinces, ministries, the People’s Liberation Army and organizations that represent workers and social groups. But their power is largely ceremonial, since all important decisions are vetted in advance by leaders of the Communist Party.Votes on legislation tend to be unanimous or nearly so, adding to the party’s grip. However, the NPC is a rare window into government priorities and policy direction.
Along with it, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body, will gather to debate key issues facing the country. The Two Sessions, as these meetings are collectively known, provide a window into China’s economic and political strategies.
What This Means for the Future
This year’s NPC will serve as a building block for the next five-year plan (2026–2030), as China charts its policies for the next stage of development. Economy, technology and diplomacy remain the three precious beans that Chinese society is working hard to hold, but balance among them in the face of globle uncertainty will be the real art of governance of China’s leadership.- Will China’s policies be sufficient to jump-start domestic consumption?
- How will it react to the intensifying U.S.-China trade conflict?
- Will China’s tech and innovation agendas lead to self-sufficiency?
