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What The 'Zero Option' Would Look Like In Afghanistan

pakistani342

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original article here

excerpts below
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"The U.S. presence is tremendously entrenched in all spheres of life in Afghanistan," Smith says. "So much of life in this country hinges on this question of whether or not there will be U.S. forces after 2014."

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The zero option, if it comes to that, would exacerbate the already formidable security, financial, and regional challenges facing the Afghan government:

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The absence of any Western forces would deprive Afghanistan's nascent security forces of much-needed assistance with logistics, air support, and intelligence.

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A complete pullout would also likely see Kabul receiving much less of the $4 billion in annual military aid pledged by foreign donors to sustain the Afghan army and police.

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A complete withdrawal of U.S. troops could also translate into much less of the $4 billion in annual civilian aid pledged by foreign donors reaching Afghanistan.

Smith says that could prove disastrous for the many Afghan industries and the economy as a whole, which is heavily dependent on foreign funding.

"Just the sheer amount of money that's going to be pulled out has the potential to be a fundamentally disruptive thing," Smith says. "There would be an abrupt deflation of that war bubble in the economy."

Waning international aid could compound the ominous economic conditions in the country. With most foreign forces leaving, many Afghan businesses have already closed shop and their owners have left the country, taking much-needed cash with them.

One sector of the economy that has already been hit is real estate. The housing bubble, fueled largely by the war economy, has already burst, with prices in the capital slashed by about half in the past three years.

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The financial effects of a U.S. withdrawal could be compounded by the absence of the U.S. military, which is a key employer of Afghan civilians and contributes significantly to the Afghan economy.

Many lucrative businesses have been propped up by military spending.

The logistics and construction sectors profit most. The U.S. military hires Afghan companies to transport supplies, equipment, food, water, and fuel to and from U.S. military bases from ports in Pakistan. Afghans have also been employed to build bases, including constructing watchtowers and other facilities.

Afghan companies have also been paid to produce supplies for the U.S. military. As an example, several large bottle factories have sprung up to provide U.S. personnel with bottled water.

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