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What makes a regional chaudhry?

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Ardeshir Cowasjee


SOON after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement earlier this year that America was “betting” on India’s future and sought Indian presence beyond the region, numerous articles were written in Pakistani papers with titles such as ‘US daydreaming’, ‘Sponsoring India’s rise’, ‘Challenging regional environment’ and ‘America plays Indian game’.

The common theme of these articles, duly backed by the rantings of our television anchors, was that the US is ‘sponsoring’ India’s rise as a major power and since India is Pakistan’s eternal enemy, such US sponsorship of our eternal enemy should be unacceptable to and resisted by us.

Are major powers really sponsored and created by others? Our intellectually challenged prime minister summarised the contrived national sentiment when he said that Pakistan would not accept a chaudhry or hegemon in the South Asian region.

But if no one sponsored the rise of China as a major power, why should it be difficult for us to admit that international powers
emerge based on their economic, political and military strength? They are not sponsored by other major powers.

According to Paul Kennedy, author of The Rise and Fall of Great Powers, those states emerge and survive as great powers that are able to maintain a “balance of military and economic strength”. As Kennedy notes, “great power ascendancy correlates strongly to available resources and economic durability; military overstretch and a concomitant relative decline are the consistent threat facing powers whose ambitions and security requirements are greater than their resource base can provide for”. In other words, great world powers are made by their own achievements and through recognition by peers.

Liking or disliking another country or its policies has nothing to do with great power status. The United States and its western allies did not agree with Soviet communist ideology but could not deny that the Soviet Union was a superpower.

Similarly, until the 1970s communist China was not recognised by many countries around the world and faced tremendous economic and social upheavals. But no one could deny China’s status as a great civilisation and whether or not the existing powers agreed with the views and ideology of Mao Zedong, they had to acknowledge China as a great power.

Both China and India are 5,000-year old civilisations, which have now re-emerged on the global stage. When leading countries around the world seek to build ties with India, it is not a case of ‘sponsoring’ or ‘promoting’ or ‘seeking’ India’s rise as a great power, but of acknowledging a reality. It would be to Pakistan’s advantage, too, to learn to accept reality as the basis of foreign policy.

India is currently population-wise the second largest country in the world, after China, and the world’s most populous democracy. Its GDP stands at $1.43tr (at official rates) and its GDP growth rate has ranged between eight and nine per cent for the last five years, despite the global economic downturn.

By 2030 India will become the world’s third largest economy after US and China. India’s foreign exchange reserves stand at $294bn and annual Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into the Indian economy stands at around $25bn. The India-China bilateral trade stands at around $60bn annually and India-US bilateral trade around $55bn.

From being a country which received aid, India has now become an aid-provider both bilaterally as well as through multilateral institutions. Along with other fast-growing economies like Brazil, Russia and China, in 2009 India offered $10bn to the IMF to be provided to countries needing assistance.

India is currently providing around $2bn in aid to Afghanistan and this year it is offering a $5.4bn credit line for development projects in Africa — all this at a time when Pakistan is having trouble securing $3bn in loans from the IMF.

India’s higher education system in the world with around 350 universities and 16,000 colleges produces around 14,000 PhDs annually. We know India’s military prowess but ignore its soft power: India has hosted the Asian Games twice, the 2010 Commonwealth Games and the Cricket World Cup in 2011 along with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Bollywood is the world’s largest film industry and in 2009 alone produced 2,961 films.

Our leaders remain reluctant to educate our people of these facts, let alone recognise emerging global realities. Politicians and the media persist in keeping our illiterate and semi-literate public in a mythical universe. Those, to name but one, our former ambassador in Washington, who have studied and taught international relations advocate realism in speeches and writings that are published and commented on abroad only to be ignored at home. Educated realists are denigrated on an almost daily basis as if their reference to facts is somehow blasphemous or unpatriotic.

Husain Haqqani has been dislodged through what appears to be clumsy intrigue by manipulators up to no good. The affair of the mystery memo has been described as “an invented scandal to oust a long-time critic and weaken the civilian government”.

According to US Senator John Kerry, Pakistan has lost “a strong advocate for his country and the Pakistani people … [his] wisdom and insights will be missed….”.

Now to Imran Khan — has he joined the ranks of demagogue-politicians by calling upon the nation to turn to its mythical prowess and look its external enemies including India and the US in the eye?

As commented one realist — to look another in the eye one must be approximately of the same height. If we want to be a chaudhry let us work on becoming one. Perhaps we can begin by focusing on building a world-class educational system and develop the nation’s economy quietly for a few years, without the usual bravado and chest-thumping. Is that so difficult?

What makes a regional chaudhry? | Opinion | DAWN.COM
 
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Ardeshir Cowasjee is Pakistan's mosy useless Journalist who has sold out Pakistani Interest. Nobody gives a hoot for this old fossil in Pakistan.
 
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Ardeshir Cowasjee is Pakistan's mosy useless Journalist who has sold out Pakistani Interest. Nobody gives a hoot for this old fossil in Pakistan.

LoL, he seems to be making the kind of noises that nobody wants to hear.
"The Emperor's New Clothes"; anyone? ;)
 
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Ardeshir Cowasjee is Pakistan's mosy useless Journalist who has sold out Pakistani Interest. Nobody gives a hoot for this old fossil in Pakistan.


that piece of crap as you call it has more to say in the interest of your country than any politician/military personell has ever even thought about.............but then again you belong to the foolish lot mentioned in the article and you believe in your supernatural powers that you believe your country seems to posses......so keep beleiving
 
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Isn't "Chaudry" a person's name?

By 2030 India will become the world’s third largest economy after US and China.

Hahaha, I love it when Indian members here make this argument.

They say: "Don't upset India! By 2030 we will have the 3rd largest economy in the world!"

LOL, even today China is already the 2nd largest economy in the world, yet Indians still want to have us as an enemy. Where is the logic?
 
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Sponsoring India

Asif Ezdi
Monday, July 25, 2011

The decision to sponsor the rise of India as a major player on the geopolitical landscape was taken by the US early in the second term of George W Bush. It was communicated to Manmohan Singh in March 2005 by Condoleezza Rice, then secretary of state, who told the Indian prime minister that Washington wanted to make India a global power.

This effort was launched against the background of the growing political, economic and military power of China, seen by Washington as a challenge to its position as the sole superpower. India s assigned role in the US strategy was to serve as a counterweight to China and to stem its assertiveness .

As the first big step in helping India s rise, the US secured a waiver for India from the guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group which bar nuclear trade with non-NPT countries. At the same time, Washington declared that it was de-hyphenating Pakistan and India and that the nuclear embargo on Pakistan would be maintained.

This landmark initiative had bipartisan support in the US and has been taken forward by Obama. On his visit to India in November last year, Obama declared that the US not only welcomes India as a rising global power, we ... have worked to help make it a reality. He pledged US support for India s bid to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council, something that would give formal recognition to the great power status coveted by Delhi.

On her visit to India last week for the second round of strategic dialogue with India, Hillary Clinton promised some more help for India s great power ambitions. In a major speech in Chennai on a vision for the 21st century, she called upon India to become a more assertive leader in Asia and pledged Washington s support in assisting India to expand its influence beyond its immediate neighbourhood and in particular in China s backyard in South-East Asia and the Pacific rim, as well as China s western flank in Central Asia.

Since India does not lie on the Pacific and has no capacity for power projection in the region, Clinton had to resort to some verbal acrobatics to declare India qualified for a role as a Pacific power. India, she declared, straddled the waters from the Indian to the Pacific Ocean. That is dubious geography because it is not India but Malaysia and Indonesia that sit astride those waters. But Clinton was obviously not prepared to let that come in the way of her argument. The US and India, she said, had invested deeply in shaping the future of the region that they connect, and with the US, India was a steward of these waterways.

In urging New Delhi to take a stronger role across Asia, Clinton told India, It s time to lead. She pushed Delhi to translate its Look East policy into a stronger action. We encourage you not just to look east, but continue to engage and act east as well, she said. Clinton urged India to start in its immediate neighbourhood by using its influence to promote democratic reforms in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Nepal and increasing its engagement with Bangladesh and Maldives.

Clinton not only pushed India to become more assertive across Asia but also announced steps Washington would be taking to involve Delhi more actively in shaping Asia s future. First, the US would soon launch a three-way dialogue with India and Japan. Second, the US would work with India and other countries to build the East Asia Summit into Asia-Pacific s premier regional forum for dealing with political and security issues, including non-proliferation.

In addition, Washington has decided to invite India to participate as an observer, for the first time, in the annual summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum that the US will host in Hawaii in November. Participation in the group has so far been open only to countries on the Pacific rim, which India is not.

While leaving little doubt that Washington would like a rising India to be a partner in countering China s assertiveness, Clinton took care not to name China as a rival or competitor in her public statements, and she emphasised - to the delight of the Indians and the dismay of the Japanese, America s principal Asian allies for six decades - that India, China and the United States (but not Japan) would have to coordinate their efforts as they all seek to build Asia s future.

Manmohan Singh has also spoken of Chinese assertiveness . But Delhi will remain wary of siding with Washington against Beijing, not only to protect its strategic autonomy but more so as it needs China s backing to realise its dream of becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Nevertheless, India is pleased that it is being treated by Washington as a potential equal of China.

As for the Asia-Pacific, Clinton backed a growing role by India in South and Central Asia as the only way forward and indicated that Washington would use its clout to help India achieve it, specifically naming the summit being hosted by Turkey this November and the international conference in Bonn in December. She also expressed agreement with India s concerns about reconciliation in Afghanistan.

India clearly has a central place in the vision Clinton outlined at Chennai of stronger economic ties connecting all countries of South and Central Asia, in which goods, capital and people can flow more easily across borders. The recently concluded Pakistan-Afghanistan transit trade agreement, she said, should be followed by expanded trade between Central Asia and India. Taken together with her positive remarks on the meeting of the commerce secretaries of Pakistan and India last April, this can only mean that US pressure on Pakistan to open the Pakistan-Afghan transit route to the movement of Indian goods to Afghanistan and beyond will be maintained.

Washington evidently takes a much more benign view of India s interest in Afghanistan than facts and history warrant. Delhi s current reservations on talks with the Taliban to promote the reconciliation process fit the past pattern. One of Delhi s worries, should the Taliban get a share of power in Kabul, is that such a government might help broker a peace agreement between the Pakistan government and the Pakistani Taliban, bringing domestic peace and stability to the country, which would go against India s interests. Clearly, Delhi is not about to kick its old habits and Pakistan would be wise not to lower its guard by opening the Afghan transit route to Indian exports.

Clinton s other project - building up India as a counterweight to China in Asia-Pacific - is much too grandiose. The fact is that India is having a hard time holding its own in its immediate neighbourhood, as China s growing links with Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Nepal show. To expect India to match China in South-East Asia and the Pacific rim, where China enjoys numerous longstanding built-in advantages, is not realistic, even when these plans are backed by Washington. Or was Clinton thinking of the 22nd century?

Pakistan should in any case redouble its efforts for participation in the regional forums for cooperation in Asia-Pacific. If India, as a country which does not lie on the Pacific rim, is to attend the Hawaii APEC meeting as an observer, Pakistan should also press its case more vigorously than it has done so far.

Even more important would be participation in the East Asia Summit (EAS) if, as the US plans, it is to become the leading regional forum on political and security issues. Pakistan s membership of the EAS was supported by Malaysia in 2006 and by Japan in 2007. Pakistan will now have to invest more of its diplomatic capital and energy in pursuing the matter. It is hoped that our new foreign minister utilised her attendance at the ASEAN Regional Forum last week to lobby for our participation in APEC and EAS.

Email: asifezdi@yahoo.com
 
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Isn't "Chaudry" a person's name?



Hahaha, I love it when Indian members here make this argument.

They say: "Don't upset India! By 2030 we will have the 3rd largest economy in the world!"

LOL, even today China is already the 2nd largest economy in the world, yet Indians still want to have us as an enemy. Where is the logic?

:offtopic:
 
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No rebuttal of actual specifics. Just vague feel-good statements.

Not very brilliant at all.

Not a feel good statement. Its the truth.

Whatever India has achieved till date is due to its hard work and intelligent policies..not some other nation 'sponsoring' us.

Even the sponsoring by America, as is alleged, why to India ? there are many nations out there that are more willing to carry American burden ? Why not them ?

Because they are not developed, nor they have the potential. If you are strong enough, others will automatically want to be-friend you. Simple truth of international politics.
 
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Not a feel good statement. Its the truth.

Whatever India has achieved till date is due to its hard work and intelligent policies..not some other nation 'sponsoring' us.

Even the sponsoring by America, as is alleged, why to India ? there are many nations out there that are more willing to carry American burden ? Why not them ?

Because they are not developed, nor they have the potential. If you are strong enough, others will automatically want to be-friend you. Simple truth of international politics.

The debate isn't about economic achievements. If all US cared about was a big market, it would woo China. Also, Russia and Brazil have far better per-capita GDP than India does. And Russia actually touches the Pacific Ocean, unlike India which is being muscled into the Pacific forums.

The reason is that the US knows it can't control Russia to work against China, but India is much more manageable -- despite what Indians think. Already it's paying dividends in the South China Seas.
 
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Isn't "Chaudry" a person's name?



Hahaha, I love it when Indian members here make this argument.

They say: "Don't upset India! By 2030 we will have the 3rd largest economy in the world!"

LOL, even today China is already the 2nd largest economy in the world, yet Indians still want to have us as an enemy. Where is the logic?

Please do one thing.... go and tell this economic logic to ur pakistani friends. If we cant have china as enemy because we have 1/4 economy then Pakistan doesn't stand a chance bcoz their economy is 1/10 of ours.
 
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The debate isn't about economic achievements. If all US cared about was a big market, it would woo China. Also, Russia and Brazil have far better per-capita GDP than India does. And Russia actually touches the Pacific Ocean, unlike India which is being muscled into the Pacific forums.

The reason is that the US knows it can't control Russia to work against China, but India is much more manageable -- despite what Indians think. Already it's paying dividends in the South China Seas.

You are simply naive.

Co-operation between China-US and US-Russia is far far better than you make it out to be. I will not go there.

It isn't about economy perse, it about a combination of everything - economy, military, political influence, shared interests & visions etc.

Leave it. You wont get it.

My contention is simple. No body can make or break you in the context US is not propping us. The future of your country is in your own hands. When you develop your country you will see people lining up to make friends with you.

And if you think we are somehow more manageable, well what can I say ? Nothing. Be comfortable in your own thinking. We know how to play ball with the US and we have indeed played with them.
 
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