Interesting that nobody chose to provide a argumant either way. But of interest and relevant to this thread is this article -
Here are 12 reasons why I think that under-reporting in Karachi’s population can’t be as large as claimed by political parties. Source:
https://medium.com/@hasaankhawar/12...was-significantly-under-reported-3d1c5f4a1178
1. Karachi’s urban population stood at 5.2 million in 1981. It then grew at an average growth rate of 3.49% reaching 9.3 million by 1998. Since then however, the growth slowed down to 2.49%, as per recent census results, with population now reaching 14.9 million. Even at present level, it shows tremendous growth over the last two decades.
2. Interestingly, even if Karachi’s population had grown at the same rate, as was witnessed between 1981–1998, it would have still reached close to
18 million, way below what political parties are claiming.
3. In 2013, the total number of registered voters in Karachi division was 7.1 million, which represents 44% of present population. The percentage in Lahore is not very different, with 4.4 million voters representing 40% of city’s population.
4. For Karachi to have 30 million people, it should have grown at an average growth rate of
6.33%, which is absolutely unrealistic. Just to put things in perspective, this number is so absurd that if Karachi actually had 30 million people and continued to grow at this rate, its population would be way more than the rest of Pakistan in the next 50 years.
5. These counter estimates of 22–30 million mean that about 2–3 citizens out of every 6 were not counted.
This does not seem to hold ground.
6. Even for Karachi to have a population of 22 million, this growth rate should have been 4.6%, significantly higher than that of Lahore. Those who had observed both cities grow over the last two decades know very well that the pace of change in Lahore’s infrastructure has been much more than that of Karachi.
7. The rural population of Karachi division however stands at merely 1.1 million, spread across parts of Karachi West and Malir districts. Even if we consider all of it urban, it wouldn’t still make a sizeable difference to Karachi’s reported population, and would merely increase it to 16 million. So allegations of deliberately categorizing urban population as ‘rural’ do not seem true.
8. The demarcation of rural and urban areas falls under the purview of provincial government and not Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
9. Another potential reason for under-reporting could be to make a dent in overall population of Sindh to lessen its provincial share in federal resources and National Assembly seats. Interestingly, when compared to the last census, Sindh is the only province that has retained its share of 23% in national population. KP and Baluchistan have gained share, while Punjab is the only one that has lost its share from 56% to 53%. This could result in loss of 8+ seats for Punjab in National Assembly. It is clear that Punjab is at the losing end here, not Sindh.
10. The census could have a methodological error. Such an unintentional error however would lead to erroneous results across the board and not just one city.
11. Yet another issue is of a large base and Karachi’s demographics.
Considering the education and income level of Karachi residents, it can be safely assumed that Karachi’s birth rate should be way below the national average. Overestimates about Karachi’s population are based on the notion of urbanization, with people from other cities migrating to Karachi. These migrants however would translate into smaller growth figure, considering that Karachi already had close to 10 million people in 1998.
12. Anecdotal evidence suggests some out-migration from Karachi as well during the last two decades. Besides, we must take into account the huge inflow of people who commute to Karachi everyday to earn their livelihoods. This should also be a significant chunk, which does put a drain to Karachi’s resources but wouldn’t be counted as Karachi residents for census.
Why is it hard to believe that Karachi’s population growth has slowed down? Isn’t it intuitive that law and order challenges, poor civic services as compared to other major Pakistani metropolitans and lack of infrastructure investments have made Karachi a less attractive destination?
