Water or War

[DesiGuy]

ELIZABETH JACKSON: There's been speculation for some time that future wars will be fought over water.

Now a study published in the journal Nature has raised concern that the issue of water resources could make India's already-fraught relationship with Pakistan even worse.

The NASA study shows that aquifers in north-western India, bordering Pakistan, are being depleted at a much greater rate than they're being replenished.

Carly Laird reports.

CARLY LAIRD: India's north-western region is known as the country's breadbasket. And if the rate of groundwater depletion there is anything to go by, there's a lot of food production happening.

Matt Rodell is a hydrologist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Centre in the United States. He and his colleagues have been using satellites to determine how much water is being depleted from below the Earth's surface.

MATT RODELL: One of the places that stands out is north-western India, where there's sort of a bullseye of red, where red is like a decrease in water storage.

And so we knew that north-western India has had issue with using too much groundwater and peoples' wells going dry and people needing to find clean sources of water.

We also knew that that was one of the most heavily irrigated areas of the world for cropland irrigation, so our hypothesis was that the groundwater's being depleted due to pumping for irrigation and so we decided to take a little closer look.

CARLY LAIRD: They found that between 2002 and 2008, the north-western region of India had lost over 100 cubic kilometres of groundwater. That's double the capacity of India's surface water reservoir.

MATT RODELL: And we know that the really heavy irrigation of the land began in the 1960s when they had what they called a green revolution, where they tried to increase agricultural output by using Western agricultural practices such as irrigation and synthetic fertilisers.

CARLY LAIRD: And he sees this as a potential problem for India's north-western neighbour.

MATT RODELL: Potentially if India's using a lot of water and drawing down the water table and it affects Pakistan, that could irritate the tensions that are already there.

CARLY LAIRD: Water is something that's already been a source of conflict between the two countries. Dr Sandy Gordon is a Professor at the ANU's Centre of Excellence in Policing and Security.

SANDY GORDON: India has built an enormous hydro dam on the Chennai River. Now Pakistan claims that this has drastically reduced the flow of the river and Pakistani farmers are saying that this also depleted the surrounding groundwater.

So this has become a serious cause for concern between India and Pakistan.

CARLY LAIRD: And he thinks the problem could escalate.

SANDY GORDON: As water is depleted in recent years I think it's going to come much more to the fore in terms of its sources of tension between the two.

CARLY LAIRD: But hydrologist and NASA scientist, Matt Rodell, argues the Indian Government should actively try to prevent conflict from arising by encouraging farmers to change their practices.

MATT RODELL: Rice is one of the major crops in this region and rice requires a huge amount of water to grow. They could also try to implement more efficient irrigation techniques.

AM - Potential for water conflict between India and Pakistan 15/08/2009

 

[SinoIndusFriendship]

This water shortage problem is a serious problem for India right now, there are serious riots and fighting over water shortage (and crop failure). There's recent news on it.

On a related note, Taiwan province is suffering from typhoon that has destroyed 70 billion Taiwan dollars worth of crops.

This is another reason why damns are so useful, it regulates "mother nature" water supply.

 

[applesauce]

This water shortage problem is a serious problem for India right now, there are serious riots and fighting over water shortage (and crop failure). There's recent news on it.

On a related note, Taiwan province is suffering from typhoon that has destroyed 70 billion Taiwan dollars worth of crops.

This is another reason why damns are so useful, it regulates "mother nature" water supply.

ironically Taiwan was suffering severe droughts before the typhoon, when that hit the shore it brought with it record rain falls.

 

[Manticore]

Open Letter To Indian Prime Minister

As a native of Pakistan – I am excited to have a sagacious leader at the helm of affairs next door. Especially as our countries have a history of bitter relations having fought three wars since our independence from Britain in 1947. We both claim the Himalayan region of Kashmir, which is divided between us.

Mr. Prime Minister, I feel it’s about time that we both re-visit the concept of ‘sous rature’, (a term usually translated as ‘under erasure)’ in our bilateral discussions. I am proposing a sous rature for Kashmir – because the conflict is inadequately represented thus far as a territorial issue. Since this is an important issue, I propose we keep it legible yet cross it out. And, going forward use a more accurate term; water conflict.

Water is linked to the crises of climate change, energy and food supplies, and in our case, a territorial dispute. Unless Kashmir’s link with water is addressed and resolved, these other crises may intensify leading to further political insecurity and conflict at various levels.

It is abundantly clear to most educated Pakistanis that the Kashmir dispute cannot be resolved until every Pakistani citizen is assured access to water – today, tomorrow and for times to come. I am hoping that in your second term you will demonstrate the courage expected of a ‘fair’ regional power and not insist on building dams that will deprive Pakistani farmers of vital water supplies.

Mr. Prime Minister, I am hoping that you will address the critical issue of the Tulbul Navigation project on Wular Lake in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir. I am sure you are aware of our position that this dam will disrupt the flow of water into the Jhelum River, which flows into Pakistan. This dam clearly violates the Indus Water Treaty of 1960. You must know that the World Bank-mediated 1960 Indus Water Treaty stipulates that we share the Indus River and its five tributaries – the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. Under the treaty, we received exclusive use of waters from the Indus and its westward flowing tributaries, the Jhelum and Chenab, while the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers were allocated for your country’s use.

Mr. Prime Minister in your haste to win this second term you have withheld millions of cubic feet of water upstream on the Chenab in Indian-administered Kashmir, and you are storing it in the massive Baglihar dam in order to produce hydro-electricity. Mr. Prime Minister you know it is in breach of the 1960 treaty. I know you decided to stop entertaining this discussion after the Mumbai attacks- but why are you punishing the poor farmers of Pakistan for the crimes committed by a few mercenaries?

We have heard your position that India has a right to ‘’run-of-the-river’’ projects but ask 10 independent scientists and they will confirm that the Baglihar dam reduces the flow of water to Pakistan in violation of the 1960 treaty. Come down to Pakistan and bring those World Bank appointed experts who had cleared the Baglihar project so they can understand the implication of their decision as well. If these experts are not blind- I am sure they will notice that the levels of both the river and groundwater have fallen substantially. Indeed, from our side this doesn’t even look like a river anymore; it is more like a puddle.

Mr. Prime Minister I don’t want to bore you with details, but the 1960 treaty guaranteed us 55,000 cusecs of water. Yet, this year we have received between 13,000 cusecs during the winter and a maximum of 29,000 cusecs during summer.

We have also heard the Indian argument for the Wular dam; that you will make a shallow 12 mile stretch of the river in order to ease “navigation” during the dry summer months. And that this is allowed under the 1960 treaty.

Let’s be honest Mr. Prime Minister- this is an open attempt to store water and control how much will be allowed to flow to Pakistan. It may not happen overnight – but there are no guarantees that you will continue to win elections in India for next 30-40 years.

Mr. Prime Minister- you may ignore this appeal but at least pay attention to more than 20 different UN bodies who have warned that the world may be perilously close to its first water war. Take these dam projects off the table and you will win the hearts and minds of Pakistanis. Moreover, you will bring the two nations closer to a more peaceful and prosperous coexistence.

Open Letter To Indian Prime Minister|Ibrahim Sajid Malick

 

[Manticore]

MODS, i request to make this a sticky... the quicker we realize the significance of this issue, the quicker we can anticipate the future and do something to stop this water enroachment.. political measures have all failed... as some indian leader said that we [indians] can win the war without firing a single bullet , by just curbing pak water recources..

we are having electricity loadshedding.. i wonder what the next stage would be?

 

[skeptic9]

OMG!! It's a bad situation for somebody...

 

[Nihat]

concept of nation states going to WAr over water seems fairly far-fetched to me as of now.

 

[DesiGuy]

concept of nation states going to WAr over water seems fairly far-fetched to me as of now.

You never know, WW2 started in seconds.

 

[arihant]

Thread is pretty important IMO.

 

[DesiGuy]

Thread is pretty important IMO.

It is.

 

[Nihat]

http://www.apcss.org/Publications/APSSS/IndusRiverDiplomacy.Wirsing.Jasparro.pdf

"These two reasons are brought together with a third, still more disturbing, reason
in an unusually provocative book, The Final Settlement: Restructuring India-Pakistan
Relations, brought out by the Mumbai-based Strategic Foresight Group in 2005. This
third reason for dissatisfaction is that the treaty, though highly unlikely to be abrogated
by India, offers only a very frail defense against heightened conflict over river resources
between India and Pakistan, and that it is only a matter of time before water war
becomes a virtually unavoidable feature of the region’s political environment. In a
chapter entitled “Water” and with the subtitle “The Secret,” The Final Settlement holds
that water has been central to the Kashmir dispute from the beginning, that the public
debate over Kashmir—focused on lofty goals of self-determination and human rights
(and not on Islamabad’s self-interest in water security)—has always been discreetly
steered away from this fundamental fact,9 and that Pakistan’s mounting water
insecurity virtually ensures a still deeper and volatile nexus between water and Kashmir
in coming years. The book cites as evidence frequent unofficial Pakistani expressions of
interest in recent years in a so-called Chenab formula of conflict resolution, according to
which Jammu and Kashmir would be further partitioned, with Pakistan being granted
the Kashmir Valley and a substantial (and Muslim majority) portion of Jammu, enough
to give it command of the Chenab River. The Chenab, in The Final Settlement’s view, is
the ultimate prize, possession of which by Pakistan would virtually end its water woes:
with the 1960 treaty effectively terminated, Pakistan would be able to develop the
Chenab’s potential to the maximum, not only in terms of storage dams for irrigation but
also for hydroelectric power and flood control. This, according to the book, has in recent
years been the latent objective of Pakistani diplomatic and political activity relating to
Kashmir.10

Most disturbing, from The Final Settlement’s perspective, is that what Pakistanis
feel they must have, Indians will never give up. The Chenab River is clearly not for sale. "

Interesting piece.

 

[Fracker]

This water shortage problem is a serious problem for India right now, there are serious riots and fighting over water shortage (and crop failure). There's recent news on it.

On a related note, Taiwan province is suffering from typhoon that has destroyed 70 billion Taiwan dollars worth of crops.

This is another reason why damns are so useful, it regulates "mother nature" water supply.

hmm so thats why, they started to steal pakistani water from so called power generation only. Interesting!!

 

[DesiGuy]

hmm so thats why, they started to steal pakistani water from so called power generation only. Interesting!!

Pakistan water??


um...i doubt that.


anyways water is water, and it is neither mine nor your!

 

[aanshu001]

LAHORE: Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Sardar Assef Ahmad Ali has said India will have to stop stealing Pakistan’s water as the latter will not hesitate to wage war with New Delhi if it does not stop doing so.

He was speaking at a seminar on the “Improvement on Energy Sector”, organised by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Pakistan (IEEEP), at a local hotel on Saturday.

Talking to media persons, Sardar Assef said 5,000 MW of power would be produced by the Rental Power Plants (RPPs) in the next two years. He said the private sector was responsible for the delay in the RPPs because it was the sector’s responsibility to induct the RPPs into the national grid in time and the government had nothing to do with the delay. He said Pakistan had the best energy resources as compared to other countries in the region but “we could not utilise them”. He said in order to fulfil our energy needs, it was necessary to tap the Thar coal reserves, adding that work on the Thar coal resources would start the moment the Sindh Assembly passed a resolution in this regard.

About the import of gas from Iran, he said if Pakistan imported gas from Qatar, it would be cheaper than the gas from Iran. Moreover, he said the Iranians were strict about the terms and conditions of the agreement and they would never compromise on the price issue.

He said dictators had damaged the socio-economic fabric of the country and added that if the previous government had taken action in time, the Baghliar Dam would have never been constructed by India.

Chief of Pakistan Muttahida Kisan Mahaz Ayub Mayo said due to the negligence of Pakistani leaders, India had damaged the irrigation system of Pakistan by stealing water in violation of the treaties. He said a huge crisis was impending in the water and agricultural sectors of Pakistan, adding people were ready to live without electricity for some time but they would not allow the RPPs to be a part of the power sector

link: Assef fears war with India over water

 

[aanshu001]

Climate change is adding fuel to global water crisis sp. countries like India & Pakistan where large population is depends on agriculture and per capita water availability is very low.

Both India & Pakistan had rivers which flows from one country to other and any issue could be very hard to handle as shooting prices in both country.