USA military movement in SCS is clearly as arrogant and reckless as MacAuthur when he crossed 38 degree line in Korean War. USA thought that China could be scared off, but instead China moved aggressively.
If USA wants a war in SCS with China, this war will be very similar to Vietnam War. Since USA does not want a full scale war with China, USA will definitely limit the war within SCS, just as USA didn't dare to cross 17 degree line in Vietnam war. This puts USA in a no win situation. If USA wins a battle, China can just build more ships to let war continue; If USA loses a battle, China may also take Taiwan since USA definitely doesn't want a 2nd war near the Chinese coastal line. Most of Taiwanese army and politicians will switch to China if no USA participation.
If USA doesn't want a serious war and just continues FON navigation as now, China will just continue to solidify SCS bases and even commercialize the area. USA can only talk high on China with Philippines and Vietnam whining while other countries just watch.
Although USA is very strong, USA needs to cover the whole world with many competitors, which gives China advantages within first island chain. Sooner or Later, USA need to negotiate a deal with China at the cost of Philippines and Vietnam.
If USA wants a war in SCS with China, this war will be very similar to Vietnam War. Since USA does not want a full scale war with China, USA will definitely limit the war within SCS, just as USA didn't dare to cross 17 degree line in Vietnam war. This puts USA in a no win situation. If USA wins a battle, China can just build more ships to let war continue; If USA loses a battle, China may also take Taiwan since USA definitely doesn't want a 2nd war near the Chinese coastal line. Most of Taiwanese army and politicians will switch to China if no USA participation.
If USA doesn't want a serious war and just continues FON navigation as now, China will just continue to solidify SCS bases and even commercialize the area. USA can only talk high on China with Philippines and Vietnam whining while other countries just watch.
Although USA is very strong, USA needs to cover the whole world with many competitors, which gives China advantages within first island chain. Sooner or Later, USA need to negotiate a deal with China at the cost of Philippines and Vietnam.
