US vows to defend Japan against China

[Falcon29]

The reason why I believe they won't really get actively involved is because the U.S isn't what it used to be. The national debt is now past $17 trillion, China owns much of that debt and if they were to demand higher interest payments then the U.S would probably have to default on many of its loans, the u.s consumer relies on cheap chinese products to be able to afford their current lifestyle and if they can't affford that lifestyle you would probably see civil unrest in america, but i do agree that there is a good chance that u.s would defend Japan but for some reason I don't think they will. Besiedes I don't think China would attack Japan they would probably go after a smaller country to see how the international community would react.

You're right they won't get involved, they're saving their weapons for the next Muslim country in the Middle East they're going to invade on the behalf of Israel. Even if it will drive us into a ditch.

 

[Yzd Khalifa]

China is a rational actor, that it will never be the aggressor.

 

[bolo]

My opinion is that the U.S won't defend japan when push comes to shove but heres the article.

Source: DefenceTalk

Secretary of State John Kerry vowed Friday that the United States would defend Japan against attack including over islands claimed by China as tensions boil between the Asian powers.

Kerry, who said he would visit China next week, met in Washington with Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and reaffirmed the 1960 treaty that commits the United States to protect its ally.

“That includes with respect to the south china sea,” he said, before correcting himself to say the East China Sea, where China and Japan have conflicting claims.

Fears of conflict rose in November when China imposed an Air Defense Identification Zone over much of the East China Sea.


Beijing says it now requires notification from planes crossing a group of islands administered by Tokyo, known in Japanese as the Senkaku and in Chinese as Diaoyu.


“The United States neither recognizes nor accepts China’s declared East China Sea ADIZ and the United States has no intention of changing how we conduct operations in the region,” Kerry said.


The United States and its allies are increasingly concerned China will take similar action in the South China Sea, where the Philippines in particular has voiced worries about Beijing’s maritime claims.


Kishida, for his part, extended an invitation for President Barack Obama to make a state visit to Japan.


Diplomats say Obama is likely to visit Japan on an April tour of Asia, although Kerry is not expected to stop in Tokyo on his upcoming trip.

Kishida was visiting Washington after a rare open disagreement between the two allies.

The United States voiced disappointment in December when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, known for his conservative views, paid a pilgrimage to the Yasukuni shrine which honors 2.5 million Japanese war dead including convicted war criminals from World War II.

Abe’s visit outraged China and also fellow US ally South Korea. Both countries frequently accuse Japan of insufficient remorse for its aggression a century ago.

Kishida told Kerry that Japan valued its relationship with South Korea despite their “difficult issues,” saying the two democracies needed to work together in the face of nuclear-armed North Korea.

“Going forward, we will make tenacious efforts in order to build a cooperative relationship with the Republic of Korea from a broad perspective,” Kishida said.

Kishida also highlighted progress under Abe in relocating the Futenma air base within the island of Okinawa — an issue that has cast a pall for years over defense ties between the two countries.

Kerry, in turn, praised Japan for addressing another longtime sore point by ratifying the Hague convention that sets procedures for the return of children abducted by one parent across international boundaries.

Kerry’s latest trip to Asia comes as critics charge that his focus in his year in office on the Middle East has left US allies in Asia in want of a more robust presence by Washington.

Kerry said he was committed to the goal set in President Barack Obama’s first term of putting a greater US focus on Asia, and said the strategy was impossible without “ironclad guarantees” between the United States and Japan.

Link?

 

[Mighty Caty]

The reason why I believe they won't really get actively involved is because the U.S isn't what it used to be. The national debt is now past $17 trillion, China owns much of that debt and if they were to demand higher interest payments then the U.S would probably have to default on many of its loans, the u.s consumer relies on cheap chinese products to be able to afford their current lifestyle and if they can't affford that lifestyle you would probably see civil unrest in america, but i do agree that there is a good chance that u.s would defend Japan but for some reason I don't think they will. Besiedes I don't think China would attack Japan they would probably go after a smaller country to see how the international community would react.

Your assumption is wrong.

1.) The current debt crisis is not the biggest and not the worst than all of American History, American debt after WW2 hits 108% of GDP while the current level is just hopping between 70-80% If the American can bounced back from WW2 (Debt got down to 25-30% after 1970s) they could have easily come down again. Don't forget, American was fighting 2 wars, that's contributed directly to the debt boom and for now, one war is over and the other is almost over soon. The debt will come down until they engage in another war, with another nations.

2.) China is not holding majority of the debt. Not even a big pie of the treasure bond. 53% of the US national debt was held by domestic banking institute. China hold appoximately 10% of the US National Debt (About 1.6 trillions dolalrs out of 17 trillions) There would not be any impact if China demand higher interest payment. They would not get any (Not to mention that is not how treasure bond works)

On the other hand, if all the American Civil and Government sector request a payment from Federal Government, that would doom the US.

3.) US does not rely on Chinese cheap product. Infact many US firm are moving away of China as the investment environment is being more untenuable then other SE Asia destination. Basuically for a general US consumer, if they were to buy cheap product and Chinese is not supplying, they would simply go with made in Vietnam, made in Thailand or made in Cambodia. Without Chinese product, the 99c store will still be in business. Let alone the US depend on cheap Chinese product itself is a myth.

But i do agree with you on US will not protect the Japanese on the issue for a simply fact. They don't need to.

A war between China and Japan will damage both China and Japan economic. Where the Chinese will stop growing and may even in decline, Japan will go back where it started. Eitherway is benefit the US as China will lose edge as a competitor and it would make Japan closer to the US.

Unless China invaded Japan, US will not involve in any proxy war between China and Japan.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Your assumption is wrong.

1.) The current debt crisis is not the biggest and not the worst than all of American History, American debt after WW2 hits 108% of GDP while the current level is just hopping between 70-80% If the American can bounced back from WW2 (Debt got down to 25-30% after 1970s) they could have easily come down again. Don't forget, American was fighting 2 wars, that's contributed directly to the debt boom and for now, one war is over and the other is almost over soon. The debt will come down until they engage in another war, with another nations.

2.) China is not holding majority of the debt. Not even a big pie of the treasure bond. 53% of the US national debt was held by domestic banking institute. China hold appoximately 1% of the US National Debt (About 1.6 trillions dolalrs out of 17 trillions) There would not be any impact if China demand higher interest payment. They would not get any (Not to mention that is not how treasure bond works)

On the other hand, if all the American Civil and Government sector request a payment from Federal Government, that would doom the US.

3.) US does not rely on Chinese cheap product. Infact many US firm are moving away of China as the investment environment is being more untenuable then other SE Asia destination. Basuically for a general US consumer, if they were to buy cheap product and Chinese is not supplying, they would simply go with made in Vietnam, made in Thailand or made in Cambodia. Without Chinese product, the 99c store will still be in business. Let alone the US depend on cheap Chinese product itself is a myth.

But i do agree with you on US will not protect the Japanese on the issue for a simply fact. They don't need to.

A war between China and Japan will damage both China and Japan economic. Where the Chinese will stop growing and may even in decline, Japan will go back where it started. Eitherway is benefit the US as China will lose edge as a competitor and it would make Japan closer to the US.

Unless China invaded Japan, US will not involve in any proxy war between China and Japan.

I think you are the one who is telling the myth.

Then explain how China is on the verge to become the largest trading partner of US?

List of the largest trading partners of the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Hakan]

Your assumption is wrong.

1.) The current debt crisis is not the biggest and not the worst than all of American History, American debt after WW2 hits 108% of GDP while the current level is just hopping between 70-80% If the American can bounced back from WW2 (Debt got down to 25-30% after 1970s) they could have easily come down again. Don't forget, American was fighting 2 wars, that's contributed directly to the debt boom and for now, one war is over and the other is almost over soon. The debt will come down until they engage in another war, with another nations.

2.) China is not holding majority of the debt. Not even a big pie of the treasure bond. 53% of the US national debt was held by domestic banking institute. China hold appoximately 10% of the US National Debt (About 1.6 trillions dolalrs out of 17 trillions) There would not be any impact if China demand higher interest payment. They would not get any (Not to mention that is not how treasure bond works)

On the other hand, if all the American Civil and Government sector request a payment from Federal Government, that would doom the US.

3.) US does not rely on Chinese cheap product. Infact many US firm are moving away of China as the investment environment is being more untenuable then other SE Asia destination. Basuically for a general US consumer, if they were to buy cheap product and Chinese is not supplying, they would simply go with made in Vietnam, made in Thailand or made in Cambodia. Without Chinese product, the 99c store will still be in business. Let alone the US depend on cheap Chinese product itself is a myth.

But i do agree with you on US will not protect the Japanese on the issue for a simply fact. They don't need to.

A war between China and Japan will damage both China and Japan economic. Where the Chinese will stop growing and may even in decline, Japan will go back where it started. Eitherway is benefit the US as China will lose edge as a competitor and it would make Japan closer to the US.

Unless China invaded Japan, US will not involve in any proxy war between China and Japan.

1.)The way the us economy is going now with 90 million people out of the workforce it is clear that they won't be paying down that debt any time soon rather it will be increasing.
2.)The way the market works is speculation and unfortunately not with the facts you stated so if china demanded higher interest rates all of the other bond holders would freak out.
3.) Go into any store in the u.s and you will find many things made in china especially consumer electronics. It is true that companies are leaving china to go to other south east asian countries however as of now they don't have the same manufacturing capabilities of the chinese let alone the technology.

 

[Mighty Caty]

I think you are the one who is telling the myth.

Then explain how China is on the verge to become the largest trading partner of US?

Cannot post link

The key term in my post is "dependence", being number 1 trade partner does not necessarily mean you depend on it.

To say you depend on something, you either hold a commanding percentage of trade, or the rarity and control of market that leads to the physical dependency.

So, ok, let's assume China is indeed the number one trading partner with the US, does that mean the US depends on China? Say you have 650 billions net trading value with US, the percentage of trade would still be less than 30%of the total trade (US top 7 trading partner alone already tally a 2.2 trillion trade) I don't think a mere 30% of column is hardly considered as a dependency.

Then you also need to look at the distribution of the trade column, currently is 75/25 import to export, that mean 75% of that figure is export to the United States, now I want to ask you a question

Which would be harder to achieve? For US to find another importer for that 400 billions of goods? Or for China to fine another buyer that can digest that 400 billions of goods that's pay what the American is paying?

 

[BoQ77]

An example,

Apple making Iphone in China by Foxconn ( a Taiwanese ). Export of Iphone to others, USA is Foxconn to Apple.
Foxconn has facilities in Vietnam, ASEAN too.

If they want, they move the orders to ASEAN and rent the local workers.

Then your export volume transfer to other countries. Simply

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

The key term in my post is "dependence", being number 1 trade partner does not necessarily mean you depend on it.

To say you depend on something, you either hold a commanding percentage of trade, or the rarity and control of market that leads to the physical dependency.

So, ok, let's assume China is indeed the number one trading partner with the US, does that mean the US depends on China? Say you have 650 billions net trading value with US, the percentage of trade would still be less than 30%of the total trade (US top 7 trading partner alone already tally a 2.2 trillion trade) I don't think a mere 30% of column is hardly considered as a dependency.

Then you also need to look at the distribution of the trade column, currently is 75/25 import to export, that mean 75% of that figure is export to the United States, now I want to ask you a question

Which would be harder to achieve? For US to find another importer for that 400 billions of goods? Or for China to fine another buyer that can digest that 400 billions of goods that's pay what the American is paying?

The problem right now is that China is the largest trading nation since 2013.

And you stated that US now needs to get rid of the "useless Chinese junks", but ironically they seem to buy more now.

US has practically no choice, either to suffer from an hyperinflation without the affordable Chinese goods or buying from other developing nations with the higher price but even worse quality.

 

[Mighty Caty]

1.)The way the us economy is going now with 90 million people out of the workforce it is clear that they won't be paying down that debt any time soon rather it will be increasing.
2.)The way the market works is speculation and unfortunately not with the facts you stated so if china demanded higher interest rates all of the other bond holders would freak out.
3.) Go into any store in the u.s and you will find many things made in china especially consumer electronics. It is true that companies are leaving china to go to other south east asian countries however as of

now they don't have the same manufacturing capabilities of the chinese let alone the technology.

1.) Can you tell me where do you get the 90 million out of work figure? Last time I check the unemployment rate in the US is 6.7% at a federal level, which translate to 23 millions

Even at highest state level, it's only 9%, let's say the federal level is 10%, that only still mean 33 millions

90 millions would mean a 27% unemployment rate, if they really do get that, there must have been riot already

2. Why if Chinese want the money back and that would be panic?

As I said, US national debt is not a loan, it's not like US government ask China Central bank for a loan, and Chinese can ask for the interest payment.

Bond, unlike loan, they either carry a no interest issue (non market bond) or interest on mature issue (market bond) you cannot ask for payment or interest halfway

For China to lose all their US bond, they have to first wait for all the bond to be mature and put them on the market, either allowing the US government to buy them back, or have a third country to take them

Now if indeed China pushed all 1.6 trillions dollars bonds (~9%) on the market, it would only mean either US will use their surplus to buy them back or more than likely pay off some and borrow the remaining to buy back the US bond China is holding.

Now, with a standard to good standing and a 17 trillions economy, do you think US would have any problem borrowing 1.6 trillions to pay it off?

3.) read my response to another poster. How many dependence on Chinese goods depend on what kind of store you are going into. If you are referring to discount store or 99c store, of course that would be full of make in China product, actually not that much anymore.

But if you are going to a general store, it would be more of a equal footing for each player

 

[KAL-EL]

China is a rational actor, that it will never be the aggressor.

indeed correct sir! Unlike some of the bellicose hyper-nationalists here on PDF that seem to think all out war is like a video game they play in their basement, China in the 'real world' is run by rational actors.

 

[Yzd Khalifa]

indeed correct sir! Unlike some of the bellicose hyper-nationalists here on PDF that seem to think all out war is like a video game they play in their basement, China in the 'real world' is run by rational actors.

My reading is that both of the US and China try to avoid any confrontation as much as possible.

Watch out for the Japs.

No talks on the Islands
No talks on the provocative acts
No apology issued to the millions of Chinese massacred.

We often get to hear that an X or Y group of people was gassed to death in WW2 in Europe, but we never heard any acknowledgment about the war crimes against the Chinese people just as much as the US is blamed for nuking Japan, while the latter was the aggressor.

 

[Chronos]

indeed correct sir! Unlike some of the bellicose hyper-nationalists here on PDF that seem to think all out war is like a video game they play in their basement, China in the 'real world' is run by rational actors.

no one told me this

 

[Mighty Caty]

The problem right now is that China is the largest trading nation since 2013.

And you stated that US now needs to get rid of the "useless Chinese junks", but ironically they seem to buy more now.

US has practically no choice, either to suffer from an hyperinflation without the affordable Chinese goods or buying from other developing nations with the higher price but even worse quality.

Heh where did I said "US need to get rid of Chinese useless junk"

I merely pointing out US economy is not depending on Chinese import, if the people who's buying an item because it's cheap, then they don't care if said item came from China,Laos or Vietnam, so long that they are the cheapest

Unless you are saying there are no one else can make anything cheaper then the Chinese do, then the American would still have an option

That's what I say

You can think China is an unremovable option, that's your business.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Heh where did I said "US need to get rid of Chinese useless junk"

I merely pointing out US economy is not depending on Chinese import, if the people who's buying an item because it's cheap, then they don't care if said item came from China,Laos or Vietnam, so long that they are the cheapest

Unless you are saying there are no one else can make anything cheaper then the Chinese do, then the American would still have an option

That's what I say

You can think China is an unremovable option, that's your business.

Well, this is the reality, since China is not becoming the largest world factory for nothing.

Do you truly think those sneaker-making banana republics can replace us?