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US-Saudi games in the Middle East: Will Qatar bow down to the GCC states?
Global Village Space |
M. K. Bhadrakumar |
The move by a group of countries led by Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt – with Bahrain, Libya, Yemen, and Maldives toeing the line – to severe ties with Qatar and to isolate that tiny country in the Persian Gulf region comes as a surprise. It is happening hardly a fortnight after the US President Donald Trump’s high-profile visit to Saudi Arabia with an agenda, amongst other things, to resurrect the old pragmatic Sunni alliance against Iran comprised of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Jordan, Morocco – with Israel discreetly behind.
Things become a little more complicated when we also factor in Qatar’s dalliance with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s archetypal rival.
Possibly, Saudis estimated that with the relations with the US almost back to the halcyon days of the era of the Bush family, this is an opportune moment to discipline Qatar, the only other Wahhabi state in the region. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have had uneasy relations all along, the latter harboring the fear that someday Riyadh might do a “Bahrain” on it too.
Read more: Fissures in the GCC: Qatar stranded by its Gulf neighbors
Two years back, Qatar invited Turkey to establish a military base in Doha. Both Qatar and Turkey patronize the Muslim Brotherhood. The Saudis and the UAE, on the other hand, view the Brothers as having a secret agenda to overthrow their regimes. Things become a little more complicated when we also factor in Qatar’s dalliance with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s archetypal rival.
Qatar is an utterly fascinating country which has made a fine art of punching far above its weight – and getting away with it most of the time. Of course, it suffered a severe setback in Egypt when the Muslim Brotherhood government of President Mohamed Morsi, which it supported, was deposed in a military coup in July 2013, backed by Saudi Arabia and UAE. The military dictator General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (presently Egypt’s president) sent the Qataris packing. Qatar has been in the dog house in Cairo ever since. Of course, Qatar is a smart investor in western capitals and was credited with having much clout with the French elite. The US Central Command is headquartered in Doha, too.
This rift between the Sheikhs in the Arab world virtually means that the Saudi progeny known as the Islamic Military Alliance is not going to take off.
What brings together Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt to devise a containment strategy against Qatar is their common interest in getting the Brothers evicted from their safe haven in Qatar. Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, and Maldives have simply complied with Saudi diktat. Interestingly, amongst the GCC states, Kuwait and Oman have taken a neutral stance.
Read more: Anti-Qatar media campaign in the Gulf: Cracks in the Islamic Military Alliance?
Will Qatar kneel in such circumstances?
Qatar is unlikely to be cowed down, but it is a pragmatic regime which is always open to compromise. Turkey and Iran have counseled restraint, dialogue, and reconciliation by the two sides. In 2014 when a similar showdown took place between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, it lasted for 8 months.
The good thing is that this rift between the Sheikhs in the Arab world virtually means that the Saudi progeny known as the Islamic Military Alliance is not going to take off. Although projected originally as an anti-terrorism alliance, it has since emerged that the Saudis intend to deploy the IMA against Shi’ite Iran. Trump also fancies an “Arab NATO” to counter Iran’s regional influence. But, precisely because of this sectarian overtone, most Muslim countries will develop cold feet apropos the IMA. Some rethink is going on even in Pakistan as regards its association with the IMA.
Read full article:
US-Saudi games in the Middle East: Will Qatar bow down to the GCC states?
Global Village Space |
M. K. Bhadrakumar |
The move by a group of countries led by Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt – with Bahrain, Libya, Yemen, and Maldives toeing the line – to severe ties with Qatar and to isolate that tiny country in the Persian Gulf region comes as a surprise. It is happening hardly a fortnight after the US President Donald Trump’s high-profile visit to Saudi Arabia with an agenda, amongst other things, to resurrect the old pragmatic Sunni alliance against Iran comprised of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Jordan, Morocco – with Israel discreetly behind.
Things become a little more complicated when we also factor in Qatar’s dalliance with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s archetypal rival.
Possibly, Saudis estimated that with the relations with the US almost back to the halcyon days of the era of the Bush family, this is an opportune moment to discipline Qatar, the only other Wahhabi state in the region. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have had uneasy relations all along, the latter harboring the fear that someday Riyadh might do a “Bahrain” on it too.
Read more: Fissures in the GCC: Qatar stranded by its Gulf neighbors
Two years back, Qatar invited Turkey to establish a military base in Doha. Both Qatar and Turkey patronize the Muslim Brotherhood. The Saudis and the UAE, on the other hand, view the Brothers as having a secret agenda to overthrow their regimes. Things become a little more complicated when we also factor in Qatar’s dalliance with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s archetypal rival.
Qatar is an utterly fascinating country which has made a fine art of punching far above its weight – and getting away with it most of the time. Of course, it suffered a severe setback in Egypt when the Muslim Brotherhood government of President Mohamed Morsi, which it supported, was deposed in a military coup in July 2013, backed by Saudi Arabia and UAE. The military dictator General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (presently Egypt’s president) sent the Qataris packing. Qatar has been in the dog house in Cairo ever since. Of course, Qatar is a smart investor in western capitals and was credited with having much clout with the French elite. The US Central Command is headquartered in Doha, too.
This rift between the Sheikhs in the Arab world virtually means that the Saudi progeny known as the Islamic Military Alliance is not going to take off.
What brings together Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt to devise a containment strategy against Qatar is their common interest in getting the Brothers evicted from their safe haven in Qatar. Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, and Maldives have simply complied with Saudi diktat. Interestingly, amongst the GCC states, Kuwait and Oman have taken a neutral stance.
Read more: Anti-Qatar media campaign in the Gulf: Cracks in the Islamic Military Alliance?
Will Qatar kneel in such circumstances?
Qatar is unlikely to be cowed down, but it is a pragmatic regime which is always open to compromise. Turkey and Iran have counseled restraint, dialogue, and reconciliation by the two sides. In 2014 when a similar showdown took place between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, it lasted for 8 months.
The good thing is that this rift between the Sheikhs in the Arab world virtually means that the Saudi progeny known as the Islamic Military Alliance is not going to take off. Although projected originally as an anti-terrorism alliance, it has since emerged that the Saudis intend to deploy the IMA against Shi’ite Iran. Trump also fancies an “Arab NATO” to counter Iran’s regional influence. But, precisely because of this sectarian overtone, most Muslim countries will develop cold feet apropos the IMA. Some rethink is going on even in Pakistan as regards its association with the IMA.
Read full article:
US-Saudi games in the Middle East: Will Qatar bow down to the GCC states?
