US hints at ending Iraq war after 6 yrs

[Trooper]

BAGHDAD: Six years after the United States invaded Iraq, Americans and Iraqis for the first time have starkly different views about the country's future. Americans are ready to close the book on the war, but for Iraqis, the story is far from over.

As the war enters its seventh year this week, Americans are winding down their military presence. Violence, while not over, it is at its lowest since the war began, and Iraqi forces, U.S. officials said, are better able than ever to secure their nation. The United States and Iraq have agreed that most U.S. troops must withdraw by the end of 2011.

Iraqis, however, worry their war may be just beginning. January's provincial elections stoked tensions between Sunni Muslim Arabs and Kurds in northern Iraq that could spill into central Iraq. It's not clear how Iraqi forces will conduct themselves once their U.S. counterparts have left the battlefield.

Which version of the story prevails in the next year will determine the pace of the U.S. troop withdrawal and what kind of Iraq will be left behind.

From a U.S. perspective, Iraq is just one of a number of pressing issues, including the U.S. economic crisis, the war in Afghanistan and instability in Pakistan.

They're interconnected, as the U.S. military can't increase its presence in Afghanistan without drawing down in Iraq and can't make progress in Afghanistan if Pakistan erupts into chaos, especially because a war costing hundreds of billions of dollars isn't sustainable in the current economy.

 

[S-2]

We'll maintain, I expect, a significant logistical, counter-terror, and training relationship for some time. In addition, I'd presume that there will be on-going civil development coordination and advisory/mentoring programs to government, legislative, and judicial processes.

This suggests a significant sustained posture. As the Iraqi Air Force and Navy begin to expand capacity, we may play a role there as well. Finally, like many other countries, our corporations will compete to do business in Iraq.

Much will depend on the issues pointed out above but they are not insurmountable. Most worrisome isn't the pull of Afghanistan nor the money crunch. It's the internal ethnic frictions that tug at Iraq.

IMHO, we've the troops for the near-term objectives in Afghanistan either on the way (17,000) or cocked to go if ordered (13,000). None by any nation of which I'm aware are being pulled back this year. So we'll see significant net gains over the next two years in Iraq even should we never completely draw down.

I also believe that we've any number of managerial processes that can generate savings-both in the disbursement and proper use of civil and military aid as well as the conduct of combat operations. Will we, for instance, see greater efficiencies created by the use of professional aid experts to oversee civil reconstruction projects instead of the military?

I look forward to seeing how many lessons our State Dept. and others have taken from these conflicts. The military, by virtue of being at the pointy end, has had to make great impromptu leaps of improvisation and has largely proven adept. We'll need that same sort of ingenuity to finesse the diplomatic and monetary issues sure to arise in Iraq.

I wonder if our diplomats and others can prove so able? If so, I have genuine hope for Iraq.

 

[Neo]

End in sight for US after six years in Iraq​

Mike McCarthy

ARTICLE (March 20 2009): Six years into the war in Iraq a weary American public finally has an end to the US role in sight, but that end will take a couple more years and require more sacrifices by US soldiers. Beginning with pre-dawn bombing on March 20, 2003, over Baghdad, the war was launched with the stated goal of ousting Saddam Husseins regime and wiping out his weapons of mass destruction, which proved non-existent.

The mission evolved into stabilising Iraq under a democratic government. President Barack Obama has initiated sharp reductions in the US military presence, a move greatly aided by the progress made in the last two years under George W Bush, whose legacy is largely be shaped by his unpopular decision to invade.

While most Americans still believe invading Iraq was a mistake - 53 per cent according to a recent Gallup poll - that number has declined from previous highs as violence continues to drop, with fewer US soldiers come home in flag-draped caskets and the appearance of an emerging, viable Iraqi democracy.

Obama met a key campaign promise by announcing last month that most US combat troops will leave by the end of August 2010, taking the force from its current 140,000 troops to about 35,000 to 50,000. All US troops will have to be out by the end of 2011 under an agreement that the Iraqis forged last year with Bush, before he left office.

The Pentagons tally of US fatalities in Iraq was listed this week at 4,260, but the rate of combat deaths has reached its lowest level since the war began. According to USA Today, 15 US soldiers were killed in hostile action in January and February, compared to 60 for the same period last year and 149 dead in the first two months of 2007.

The drop in combat fatalities has shadowed the falloff in violence throughout the country. In February, there were 340 insurgent attacks using improvised bombs, the fewest since October 2004, USA Today said. All incidents of attacks against coalition troops, including gunfire, mortars and roadside bombs, have fallen by 90 per cent since early 2007, when Bush announced a massive troop build-up in Iraq that became known as the "surge."

Despite the progress, Obama has cautioned that bloodshed continues and that Iraq still faces daunting hurdles. Among the biggest challenge is preventing a re-eruption of the ethnic and sectarian strife that brought the country to the brink of full-blown civil war in 2005-06. "Let there be no doubt: Iraq is not yet secure, and there will be difficult days ahead," Obama, whose presidency so far has been dominated by the economic crisis, said last month.

"Violence will continue to be a part of life in Iraq." As the US role in Iraq winds down, Obama plans to step up the effort in Afghanistan, where the security environment in the last two years has deteriorated even as Iraq has stabilise. Thousands of additional US troops are on the way this year to Afghanistan, and the public view of the conflict there has eroded.

The Gallup poll taken last week showed Americans are increasingly sceptical of the mission in Afghanistan. Only 38 per cent believe the mission in Afghanistan is going well, overshadowing the polls finding that 51 per cent of Americans believe things are going well in Iraq.

Despite the renewed optimism, few Americans could have imagined six years ago that the United States would still be in Iraq as the decade closed. Not even former defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld, the architect of the Iraq war, who predicted a short stay just months before the invasion. "I cant tell you if the use of force in Iraq today will last five days, five weeks or five months, but it wont last any longer than that," Rumsfeld said in November 2002.