US experts take negative view of Pakistan

[Neo]

US experts take negative view of Pakistan​

WASHINGTON, Aug 20: A joint survey by the Foreign Policy magazine and the Centre for American Progress shows that 35 per cent US foreign policy experts believe Pakistan is most likely to become the next Al Qaeda stronghold while 22 per cent say Pakistan is an ally that least serves America’s national security interests.

A majority of the 108 experts – interviewed between May 23 and June 26 -- fear another September 11-scale attack in the US within the next decade.

As many as 74 per cent experts believe that Pakistan is most likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists in the next three to five years.

While there is a wide consensus among the experts like former secretary of state Madeleine Albright about the dangers that Pakistan poses, there is very little agreement on what to do about it.

Only a few, less than one in three, favour threatening Pakistan with sanctions. Yet about the same number supports increasing US aid to the country.

Such a muddled response underscores the puzzle that Pakistan presents to American policymakers. What is clear is that the experts do not favour more of the same: More than half of those surveyed believe the current US policy toward Pakistan is having a negative impact on US national security. Getting the strategy right could be critical if the world is to keep those dark clouds from forming.

In a chapter titled, “A Perfect Nightmare,” the respondents name Pakistan as the country where a “perfect terrorist storm” may be brewing.

When asked to choose the nation that is most likely to become the next Al Qaeda stronghold, more experts chose Pakistan than any other country, including Iraq.

Commenting on the response, the surveyors note that Osama bin Laden reportedly remains at large along Pakistan’s mountainous border with Afghanistan, where Al Qaeda is also regrouping; the country’s intelligence service is said to be still cooperating with radical elements; and President Pervez Musharraf’s political future seems increasingly imperilled.

“These developments would not be as worrisome had the experts not also said that Pakistan is the country most likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists in the next three to five years. Together, it’s a terrifying combination,” the report warns.

Chastened by the fighting in Iraq, the US national security community also appears eager not to make the same mistakes elsewhere. For instance, though a majority – 83 per cent – do not believe Iran’s nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, just 8 per cent favour military strikes in response. Eight in 10, on the other hand, say the United States should use either sanctions or diplomatic talks to negotiate an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

US experts take negative view of Pakistan -DAWN - Top Stories; August 21, 2007

 

[blain2]

Good. The more attention they give to Pakistan the easier it is for the Pakistani government to put its case through especially after the way militancy has increased in Iraq and Afghanistan due to US military action. While they can sit and complain about Pakistan, they know that none of the options applied on Iraq, I.e. sanctions, military force etc. will yield results. Their best bet is to engage the GoP and support Pakistan in the long haul.

 

[roadrunner]

Who cares what "US experts" think? They've even hired Hirsi Ali as one of their brightest thinkers, which is a lowly yardstick by anyone's standards. It's irrelevant anyway to Pakistan I think now, I'd say Pakistan is nearly self reliant or China reliant which means Pakistan won't be put in difficult situations.

 

[MastanKhan]

Roadrunner,

You, the member of think tank says that ' who cares what U S experts think '----son how did you get to be a member of the think tank on this board. After this comment I would like to know what qualifications you have to make these statements.


If the chinese reliance meant so much to pakistan, do you really believe that pakistani millitary would have done an about face to procure the american equipment! If chinese reliance had so much substinance, does anyone really believe that pakistan would be kow-towing.

Today, china is in a very very difficult position-----matel toys lead poisioning----pet foods poisioned, tainted tooth pastes---china is not in an easy position.

Pakistanis must consider these U S think tank propositions and take them very seriously and prepare for the worst case scenario. Now in order to prepare for the wqorst case scenario, the pakistanis will generally have to work very hard for the welfare of the nation in a very honest manner------now here lies the problem------pakistanis have a very hard time working selflessly for the welfare of the nation------so, if we admitted there was a real problem-----then be damned---we will have to work seriously and selflessly to make our nation stronger----but if we stated that we don't give a hoot about this threat---it is just blubber wash----we don't have to work hard-----and if hard times indeed came for the country----at least we are either out of pakistan or will fly out of the country---big deal.

 

[niaz]

Who cares what "US experts" think? They've even hired Hirsi Ali as one of their brightest thinkers, which is a lowly yardstick by anyone's standards. It's irrelevant anyway to Pakistan I think now, I'd say Pakistan is nearly self reliant or China reliant which means Pakistan won't be put in difficult situations.

Hon Sir,

You are entitled to your view point. However, any country that ignores US will have to face the consequences. Whether you like it or not, US is the sole super power and US policy effects virtually every country in the world.

Do we have such short memory that we have forgotton that US sanctions after the Atomic tests brought Pakistan economy to near bankruptcy. Nawaz Sharif went begging to US President Clinton to bail him out at Kargil. Military aside; IMF, World Bank and all the worlds financial institutions wait for a nod from the US. Why there is so much debate going in Pakistan about the US- India nuclear deal??

This doesnot mean that Pakistan or any other country for that matter, should follow US whims all the time. Final decisions must be in the greater interest of Pakistan, regardless of what US would like. However, what is required is that Govt policy makers should take into account repercussions of defying US in their decision making process.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Think tanking would require serious analysis of the issues that have to be taken into consideration before one could could take a cavalier attitude as to what the US or any other country thinks.

Some of the issues are:

1. The terrorist threat - internal and those being exported by the madrassas and putting Pakistan in a seriously embarrassing situation - possibly such exportation are beyond the Pakistan govt control.

2. Adversary on either border - India and Afghanistan.

3. Political parties that are bent on destabilising Pakistan through variety of means for their own political gains.

4. The Economy. Any destabilising factor, be it external or internal will affect the economy and it is the last thing that Pakistan would want.

5. The Arms race in the subcontinent.

6. The sectarian divide.

7. The problems in NWFP, FATA, Balochistan, Northern Area.

6. The importance of US aid to Pakistan to include IMF and the World Bank (add the Indus Water Treaty and arbitration).

7. The importance of Chinese aid and assistance. Would the Chinese aid be adequate if others do not give aid?

8. The alienation of the US and its effect where India and Afghanistan is used for US purposes?

I wonder what the think tank has to thought about all the points mentioned and how Pakistan should address each issue (with and without cranking in the US or China assistance).

I did not realise that RR is on the Think Tank!

 

[thunder786]

first they should take care of iran then think about us.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Pakistan is not Iraq and the US is aware of that.

If the US is not aware of the same, then things may not be good for the world!

 

[roadrunner]

Roadrunner,

You, the member of think tank says that ' who cares what U S experts think '----son how did you get to be a member of the think tank on this board. After this comment I would like to know what qualifications you have to make these statements.

I plagiarized your words because you're so damn clever, and it got me double A's on my thesis handed into WebMaster.

If the chinese reliance meant so much to pakistan, do you really believe that pakistani millitary would have done an about face to procure the american equipment! If chinese reliance had so much substinance, does anyone really believe that pakistan would be kow-towing.

Pakistan is buying J-10 and JF-17 aircraft. Reliance on F-16 is being reduced. Why do you think so? They will not be completely phased out, but F-16s, once the mainstay of the PAF are being replaced with J-10 and JF-17. Which US equipment are you referring to that China isn't willing to provide. I can think of very few.

Today, china is in a very very difficult position-----matel toys lead poisioning----pet foods poisioned, tainted tooth pastes---china is not in an easy position.

Matel lead poisoning? Enough to break any country

Pakistanis must consider these U S think tank propositions and take them very seriously and prepare for the worst case scenario. Now in order to prepare for the wqorst case scenario, the pakistanis will generally have to work very hard for the welfare of the nation in a very honest manner------now here lies the problem------pakistanis have a very hard time working selflessly for the welfare of the nation------so, if we admitted there was a real problem-----then be damned---we will have to work seriously and selflessly to make our nation stronger----but if we stated that we don't give a hoot about this threat---it is just blubber wash----we don't have to work hard-----and if hard times indeed came for the country----at least we are either out of pakistan or will fly out of the country---big deal.

Dude, you've somehow managed to put 2+2 together and make 20.

• US experts do not represent US government views necessarily. A lot of them are independent, so why should Pakistan bother with the views of experts like Hirsi Ali? Why should Pakistan even bother with the views of someone who could be pay rolled by Bharat?
• Why must Pakistan work hard in an honest manner for the welfare of the nation in order to prove something to the US? Pakistan must work hard as a nation for its own good!
• Working seriously and selflessly to make the Pakistani nation stronger is something that Pakistan always has done. How does this mean that the US experts are correct in saying that Pakistan will become an Al Q stronghold in the next 5 years and Pakistan will transfer nuclear technology to terrorists? (excluding Iran).

Do you think Pakistan will become an Al Q stronghold in the next 5 years? Just answer this question, I am curious of your answer. I am 99.9999% sure there is zero percent of this, because the fighting stems from Waziristan (non Pakistani government area), and the recent wave of suicide bombings come from radicals who have only acted to turn the Pakistani people against them.

 

[roadrunner]

Hon Sir,

You are entitled to your view point. However, any country that ignores US will have to face the consequences. Whether you like it or not, US is the sole super power and US policy effects virtually every country in the world.

Do we have such short memory that we have forgotton that US sanctions after the Atomic tests brought Pakistan economy to near bankruptcy. Nawaz Sharif went begging to US President Clinton to bail him out at Kargil. Military aside; IMF, World Bank and all the worlds financial institutions wait for a nod from the US. Why there is so much debate going in Pakistan about the US- India nuclear deal??

This doesnot mean that Pakistan or any other country for that matter, should follow US whims all the time. Final decisions must be in the greater interest of Pakistan, regardless of what US would like. However, what is required is that Govt policy makers should take into account repercussions of defying US in their decision making process.

I agree with this dude, but there's a differnce between US government views and the views of independent experts. Even White House experts give views that aren't necessarily shared by the administration it seems. It's not important what the vast majority of experts in the US seem to think, it's important what the US administration thinks (and any UUS trading companies of Pakistan). You only need to look at the media campaign of something like that paper, NY Times, against Pakistan, these are all views not necessarily shared by the US government or anyone else.

 

[MastanKhan]

Roadrunner,

Al qaeda will never have a strong hold in pakistan. But it is the perception that has been created by the american media that has become the make belief and perception is deadlier than the truth. Ask the iraqis----they are still looking for the W M's.

The U S experts may believe what they may----and they may poision the minds of the american public against pakistan-----the bottom line will be-----is pakistan doing enough? The paks think that they are----the americans have to put the blame on someone for their failures----pakistan is being readied to be the next whipping boy----to be the fall guy.

Jf 17 and J 10's are no match against the american equipment of any kind on one to one or otherwise. Pakistan would not had about faced from a higher number of F 16's for the J 10 deal if they were sure of their relation with the U S. Pakistani millitary would give their left and right nuts and bolt for the american equipment if the fear of the sanctions had not been looming in the distant horizons one more time.

Matel toys, dog food poision, contaminated toothpastes, unhygenic shrimp---it is just a start----the machine is slowly being steamed up. I just went to buy some shrimp at the STATER BROS grocery store yesterday------the placard stated the approx number of shrimp in a pound and also the state of their origin as well----imported from INDIA ----Thailand. 18 years I have lived in so cal, never had I seen that before.

It reminded me of the Japanese investments in the U S in the 80's and early 90's.

U S govt views are only important when the public is with the U S govt----but when the public has turned against the govt, as is the case now-----the views of think tank like these are a deadly recipe for pakistan in these uncertain times. People are angry---- democrats have lost badly in the past elections----the democrats are going to stoke this fire into an inferno jsut to win the election---and if pakistan gets beat up in the process---whats the big deal---hehn.

Pakistani have not learnt from their mistake of the 80's. The democrat members of the congress were going against pakistan, the media was going against pakistan---the anti pakistan lobbies were whipping up a frenzy against pakistan----the signs of the coming sanctions were right up front----everbody who was anybody was saying that the sanctions are coming---George Bush the sr may not hold back. Pakistan didnot listen---they didnot believe---they actually didnot not care to believe that if it was a big deal if the american public was against them---they had assumed that if you had the govt behind you---you got it all. Pakistan got spanked hard on the F 16 issue at that time----just out of their arrogance and lack of understanding.

It is deja-vu all over. The geo tv news specialist in new york is saying we should have good relations with the U S govt---as long we have good relations with them, we are OK.

Can some one tell me where are these idiots born

The americans don't like to give surprises-----they give you enough time to prepare---it is the age old cowboy mentality---it is the gun fight at OK corral. Win or lose---you have to draw. Pakistan must never put itself into that position. Our policies have been india centric and let us stay within those parameters.

Oh, by the by, I am not clever. I leave that honor for some of my pakistani brethren----I try to bring an intelligent approach to the floor.

 

[roadrunner]

Roadrunner,

Al qaeda will never have a strong hold in pakistan. But it is the perception that has been created by the american media that has become the make belief and perception is deadlier than the truth. Ask the iraqis----they are still looking for the W M's.

The perception of Pakistan created by the American media isn't good. So? it doesn't mean it's true, and it doesn't mean they will invade. America will not invade Pakistan. Not a chance. Because Pakistan is contributing postively to their WoT and the negatives of invading it will outweigh the positives. Iraq was invaded, because there were a lot more positives to come out of doing so. Pakistan is just a lot of negatives. Perception doesn't matter in this case, except to make a lot of people groan and feel better about themselves, and perhaps to detract from investment (though it doesnt appear to be doing so). Here is a question. Do you think Iraq was invaded because of public opinion, or because of lots of *glug* *glug* oil?

The U S experts may believe what they may----and they may poision the minds of the american public against pakistan-----the bottom line will be-----is pakistan doing enough? The paks think that they are----the americans have to put the blame on someone for their failures----pakistan is being readied to be the next whipping boy----to be the fall guy.

Pakistan will not be the next whipping boy. This much is pretty certain. America might like to use Pakistan, it does not need or want to invade it

Jf 17 and J 10's are no match against the american equipment of any kind on one to one or otherwise. Pakistan would not had about faced from a higher number of F 16's for the J 10 deal if they were sure of their relation with the U S. Pakistani millitary would give their left and right nuts and bolt for the american equipment if the fear of the sanctions had not been looming in the distant horizons one more time.

I don't think I ever suggested the PAF had enough equipment or technology to take on USAF!!

Matel toys, dog food poision, contaminated toothpastes, unhygenic shrimp---it is just a start----the machine is slowly being steamed up. I just went to buy some shrimp at the STATER BROS grocery store yesterday------the placard stated the approx number of shrimp in a pound and also the state of their origin as well----imported from INDIA ----Thailand. 18 years I have lived in so cal, never had I seen that before.

or perhaps the Chinese are monitoring their products more closely because they now have the money and resource to do so?

It's not important whether Matel toys have some contamination, or whatever? How are these going to affect the PLAAF? It's not these toys they will be flying for a start.

U S govt views are only important when the public is with the U S govt----but when the public has turned against the govt, as is the case now-----the views of think tank like these are a deadly recipe for pakistan in these uncertain times. People are angry---- democrats have lost badly in the past elections----the democrats are going to stoke this fire into an inferno jsut to win the election---and if pakistan gets beat up in the process---whats the big deal---hehn.

Look, the US government, it doesnt matter who they are, repubs or democrats, will not do anything to jeopardize the interests of the US at home or abroad. Even if 99% of the public was against them, but they could control them using civil and military means, the US government will always act in the interests of the US, not in what the public think to be its interests. And the US does not have a foreign policy that includes attacking Pakistan, because it will give them more headaches.

The americans don't like to give surprises-----they give you enough time to prepare---it is the age old cowboy mentality---it is the gun fight at OK corral. Win or lose---you have to draw. Pakistan must never put itself into that position. Our policies have been india centric and let us stay within those parameters.

Isn't this a contradiction? Here you say Pakistan should focus on Bharat and not bother about the rest like the Americans. It's basically what I'm saying in fact, it doesn't really matter what the Americans say, it's all about playing the game and making the two countries meet somewhere in the middle. But this is for the US government. US media experts, Hirsi Ali commentary really aren't so important.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Why should Pakistan even bother with the views of someone who could be pay rolled by Bharat?

If someone is a think tank, he has to view and analyse issues clinically. One cannot with biases, catch all phrases or flippant loose remarks or woolly muddling cover voids and weaknesses in facts and figures.

It was a delight to find the PFF (now PDF) having bloomed into a serious forum with excellent matured debates. The Think tanking should also be of matching standards. That is the hope!

 

[roadrunner]

If someone is a think tank, he has to view and analyse issues clinically. One cannot with biases, catch all phrases or flippant loose remarks or woolly muddling cover voids and weaknesses in facts and figures.

It was a delight to find the PFF (now PDF) having bloomed into a serious forum with excellent matured debates. The Think tanking should also be of matching standards. That is the hope!

You deny it's a possibility that media, experts, politicians are on the payroll of Bharat? I look forward to your clinical answer.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Though not addressed to me, yet I thought I could share a thought or two as also gain some knowledge in the bargain!

The perception of Pakistan created by the American media isn't good. So? it doesn't mean it's true, and it doesn't mean they will invade. America will not invade Pakistan. Not a chance. Because Pakistan is contributing postively to their WoT and the negatives of invading it will outweigh the positives. Iraq was invaded, because there were a lot more positives to come out of doing so. Pakistan is just a lot of negatives. Perception doesn't matter in this case, except to make a lot of people groan and feel better about themselves, and perhaps to detract from investment (though it doesnt appear to be doing so). Here is a question. Do you think Iraq was invaded because of public opinion, or because of lots of *glug* *glug* oil?

Perception about Pakistan not pulling its weight is not only because of the US media, but also what has been said in the US Congress and the statements of the Presidential hopefuls. Though it is a moot point if Pakistan can be attacked, yet if those who contribute to the US political destiny opines negatively, there must be good reasons to do so. The most damning contribution has been the US President's comments on Pakistani soil itself and that of his sidekick Rasputin Cheney! Surely, the last two are no US media barons to manipulate the news! They sure manipulate the US foreign and defence policies. So, what do we make out of it? And do spare the usual line - that they are in the pay of Bharat!

If Iraq was not invaded because of *glug* *glug* oil, what other reasons do you attribute the invasion to? Indeed, there should be some more important ones. What are they? I am sure you have some views out of the usual and that would be interesting to know of.

Pakistan will not be the next whipping boy. This much is pretty certain. America might like to use Pakistan, it does not need or want to invade it

The US would be a damn fool to kill the Golden Goose! Notwithstanding what is the popular view in the US, there is no doubt that, given the circumstances, Pakistan has stuck its neck out to abide with the US' WoT demands.

Yet, I am a wee bit perplexed and, that is where you could help me with your inside information, as to why are they appearing to be abandoning Musharraf and backing BB, when the track record of BB hasn't been totally sterling silver. What could be the deal behind this aboutface? Musharraf, after all, has been a steadfast ally of the US.

I am personally of the belief, and I hope I am not too wrong, that Musharraf was the bulwark to the US desires to ensure that fundamentalists do not swamp Pakistan's NW and undertake foray into Afghanistan, if you will!

I don't think I ever suggested the PAF had enough equipment or technology to take on USAF!!

But natural. Anything otherwise would be termed as delirious.

or perhaps the Chinese are monitoring their products more closely because they now have the money and resource to do so?

It's not important whether Matel toys have some contamination, or whatever? How are these going to affect the PLAAF? It's not these toys they will be flying for a start.

If credibility is lost, then the industry will suffer, and hence the economy. If this happens on a large scale, then there is the possibility it can have an overall effect.

Look, the US government, it doesnt matter who they are, repubs or democrats, will not do anything to jeopardize the interests of the US at home or abroad. Even if 99% of the public was against them, but they could control them using civil and military means, the US government will always act in the interests of the US, not in what the public think to be its interests. And the US does not have a foreign policy that includes attacking Pakistan, because it will give them more headaches.

That is true that the US Administration would zealously guard its national interests. It is also true that it will do anything to ensure that none jeopardise their national interests. I think it would be wise of the US not to attack any country. But one cannot put it past them to 'organise' revolutions like the type in Ukraine, Georgia, Lebanon and the failed ones in CAR. These local "revolutions" achieve the aim and at the same time keeps the hands clean, almost like Pontius Pilate!

Isn't this a contradiction? Here you say Pakistan should focus on Bharat and not bother about the rest like the Americans. It's basically what I'm saying in fact, it doesn't really matter what the Americans say, it's all about playing the game and making the two countries meet somewhere in the middle. But this is for the US government. US media experts, Hirsi Ali commentary really aren't so important.

So be it.

Fortunately, the India centric attention and vice versa has been of a rather positive nature and that is good for the subcontinent.