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At 18, Katie Ledecky is the world record-holder in the 400, 800, and 1,500 freestyle.
Even before most athletes book tickets to Rio de Janeiro, it’s becoming clear the United States will send a squad ready to top the medal table again, maybe even exceed the 104 (46 golds) won at the 2012 London Olympics. The US will get there with its usual mix of breakout stars, familiar faces, and dominant teams.
Once again, it’s likely that more than half of the US medal haul will come from track and field and swimming. In London, the US won 31 medals in swimming and 29 in track and field, and American women outpaced their male teammates in medals (58-45) and golds (29-17). Look for more of the same in Rio.
So, with 201 days until the Opening Ceremony, who are the breakout stars likely to be?
Let’s start with swimmer Katie Ledecky. The youngest member of the 2012 US Olympic team won gold in the 800-meter freestyle in London, but was overshadowed by fellow swimmers Michael Phelps and Missy Franklin. Not in Rio. At 18, she is the world record-holder in the 400, 800, and 1,500 freestyle, and could compete in as many as six events in Rio.
And to erase any doubt about the dominance to come, consider this: Ledecky’s times in the 400 and 1,500 freestyle are fast enough to qualify her for the 2016 men’s Olympic trials. (They don’t contest the women’s 1,500 at the Olympics.)
If we’re talking dominance, gymnast Simone Biles, also 18, should be in the conversation. In October, she became the first woman to win three straight all-around titles at the world championships. Even with a couple of rare mistakes at the most recent worlds (a near fall on the beam and step out of bounds on floor), Biles won because competitors could not match the degree of difficulty in her routines. Biles will make her Olympic debut in Rio with a chance at multiple golds, including the team title.
Sprinter Trayvon Bromell, 20, was a teenager when he started to gain notice in the track and field world. That’s what happens when you become the first US high school athlete to break 10 seconds in the 100 meters, then set the world junior record (9.97 seconds) in the event. Bromell has since improved his personal best to 9.84 seconds.
Last summer, Bromell qualified for the world championships in Beijing and tied for bronze behind winner Usain Bolt and runner-up Justin Gatlin.
If Gatlin makes his third US Olympic team, the sprinter who turns 34 in February will be looking to upset Bolt and win his second 100-meter gold medal. But a Gatlin win in Rio could prove awkward for a sport struggling with a massive doping scandal that involves Russian athletes and corrupt officials. Gatlin has served two bans for doping offenses, including a four-year suspension.
This year will be Allyson Felix’s fourth Olympics.
But there should be plenty of other, less-controversial US athletes back for more gold. Allyson Felix, the most decorated female athlete in track and field, will compete in her fourth Olympics. With Saturday’s schedule change, she should be able to attempt to double in the 200 and 400. Decathlon world record-holder Ashton Eaton will be vying for his second straight gold in Rio, which would put him in the company of Bob Mathias and Daley Thompson as the only men to win multiple Olympic titles in the event.
In the pool, Phelps and Franklin will likely add to their medal totals. The same goes for Serena Williams, who plans to defend her Olympic tennis titles in singles and doubles (with sister Venus). If Kerri Walsh Jennings makes her fifth Olympic appearance, she hopes to pick up her fourth gold in beach volleyball with new partner April Ross.
In sports that traditionally draw less attention, the US will also boast an impressive list of Olympic veterans. That list starts with Kim Rhode, a five-time Olympic medalist in skeet and trap. In Rio, if she wins a sixth individual event medal in her sixth Olympics, Rhode would make more history.
Fencer Mariel Zagunis, the US flag bearer at the London Games and sabre gold medalist in 2004 and 2008, wants to reclaim the top spot in her fourth Olympics. And freestyle wrestler Jordan Burroughs, the reigning Olympic champion at 74 kilograms and winner of three world championships in his weight class (2011, 2013, 2015), will enter Rio a favorite to repeat.
In team sports, it would be a shock if the US didn’t emerge with gold in men’s and women’s basketball and women’s soccer. All three teams boast significant gold medal-winning streaks and the best players in the world. The longest streak belongs to the women’s basketball team, which will be aiming for its sixth straight Olympic title.
This is far from an exhaustive cataloging of what could happen in Rio and which athletes to watch. Of course, there will be upsets and injuries and surprises. But it’s a promising start.
The big questions
Will the water be safe for competition?
At venues where sailors, rowers, and swimmers will compete, tests show high levels of bacteria and viruses from raw sewage. Despite Rio’s promises to clean up polluted waters, it appears some athletes will have better odds of getting sick than getting a medal.
Will Russia compete in track and field?
Russia stands accused of running a systematic, state-sponsored doping program. Now, the country is banned indefinitely from international track and field competitions. Russia needs to root out the problem and reform before Rio. And that will require a flat-out sprint.
Where will Rio organizers make budget cuts next?
In December, it looked like athletes would have to pay for air conditioning in their bedrooms to help Rio rein in costs. Organizers reversed course. But given Brazil’s troubled economy, Rio is still looking for ways to save money.
Will Rio want to party or protest before the Games?
An ascendant, ecstatic Brazil won the right to host the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics. Then, protests over corruption, inequality, and wasteful spending on venues preceded the World Cup in Brazil. And those problems remain.
Big names going for gold
Carli Lloyd: After recently winning the FIFA Women’s World Player of the Year award, Lloyd wants a third straight gold medal in Olympic soccer. She’ll lead a US team looking for its fourth straight gold.
Michael Phelps: With a six-month suspension from USA Swimming behind him, the most-decorated Olympian ever can focus on increasing his record gold medal total. Phelps needs a couple more wins to hit 20.
Roger Federer: It looks like singles, doubles, and mixed doubles for Federer in Rio. Why? Because even with 17 Grand Slam titles, he wants to win as many medals as possible for Switzerland.
Lydia Ko: At 18, Ko, a South Korean-born New Zealander, is the No. 1-ranked women’s golfer. She became the youngest major winner in 2015. Now, gold is on her to-do list.
Usain Bolt: Circle Aug. 14. That day Bolt defends his 100-meter title. If all goes well in Rio, he’ll win gold in the 100, 200, and 4x100 relay like he did in Beijing and London.
Brazil’s popular exports
Pele: It’s hard to top the greatest soccer player of all time from the most passionate soccer country. Playing for the New York Cosmos, Pele raised the game’s US profile.
Gisele Bundchen: Married to Tom Brady, Bundchen brings supermodel glamour to Boston and Patriots games. Never one to forget her roots, she’s taken Brady to Rio for some Carnival dancing.
Coconut Water: As a leading producer of coconut water, Brazil helps satisfy the thirst of health-conscious athletes. More good news: The natural drink meets the requirements of Brady and Bundchen’s strict diet.
Samba: During the London Olympics closing ceremony, when it came time to show the world what to expect in Rio, a samba performance started. The rhythmic music and dance transported the audience.
Girl from Ipanema: Nothing conjures up seaside Rio quite like this bossa nova song. Inspired by an actual teenage girl from Ipanema, a Rio neighborhood, it became a worldwide hit in the 1960s.
Key dates
Feb. 13: US Olympic team Marathon trials
March 5-6: International Women’s Rugby Sevens in Rio
March 18-20: Track cycling test event in Rio
April 15-20: Swimming test event in Rio
April 16-25: Final Gymnastics qualifier in Rio
May 14-16: Track and field test event in Rio
Late June/early July: Men’s basketball team named
June 26-July 3: US Olympic swimming trials
July 1-10: US Olympic track and field trials
July 1: Women’s gymnastics team announced
Shira Springer | On Olympics: United States expecting another big medal haul at the Rio Olympics - The Boston Globe
