US - Azerbaijan relations | A new paradigm

[rmi5]

US congressman calls on Barack Obama to support Azerbaijan

Paul Gosar, Congressman from Arizona, has addressed a letter to President Barack Obama calling on the U.S. government to support Azerbaijan.
News.Az reports with reference to Azerbaijan America Alliance that the congressman said Azerbaijan is a reliable ally and important strategic partner of the USA, adding the country remains committed to its partnership with Washington despite being located in a volatile region. He hailed Azerbaijan`s contribution to combating international terrorism, restoring stability in Iraq and Afghanistan and ensuring Europe`s energy security.

The congressman noted that Azerbaijan effectively used its oil revenues to rebuild its economy, reduce poverty from 50 to 6%, increase GDP and become an important trade partner of the USA in the South Caucasus.

Congressman Gosar also praised the traditions of tolerance in the country.

The Alliance is a non-partisan, non-profit organization providing information broadly about the people, culture, society, industry, history and current events of the Azeri people. The purpose includes research and advocacy on issues of interest to the Alliance.

The mission of the Alliance is to foster an atmosphere of mutual understanding and respect between the people of Azerbaijan and America. Through academic discussion, cultural programming, and political discourse, the Alliance aims to become the premier organization dedicated to promoting a lasting partnership between Azerbaijan and America.

The alliance was founded and is led by Chairman & CEO of Garant Holding Anar Mammadov.

News.Az

@Azeri440 @ASQ-1918 @Kamil_baku @asena_great @Sinan @Hakan @xenon54 @LeveragedBuyout

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

US congressman calls on Barack Obama to support Azerbaijan

Paul Gosar, Congressman from Arizona, has addressed a letter to President Barack Obama calling on the U.S. government to support Azerbaijan.
News.Az reports with reference to Azerbaijan America Alliance that the congressman said Azerbaijan is a reliable ally and important strategic partner of the USA, adding the country remains committed to its partnership with Washington despite being located in a volatile region. He hailed Azerbaijan`s contribution to combating international terrorism, restoring stability in Iraq and Afghanistan and ensuring Europe`s energy security.

The congressman noted that Azerbaijan effectively used its oil revenues to rebuild its economy, reduce poverty from 50 to 6%, increase GDP and become an important trade partner of the USA in the South Caucasus.

Congressman Gosar also praised the traditions of tolerance in the country.

The Alliance is a non-partisan, non-profit organization providing information broadly about the people, culture, society, industry, history and current events of the Azeri people. The purpose includes research and advocacy on issues of interest to the Alliance.

The mission of the Alliance is to foster an atmosphere of mutual understanding and respect between the people of Azerbaijan and America. Through academic discussion, cultural programming, and political discourse, the Alliance aims to become the premier organization dedicated to promoting a lasting partnership between Azerbaijan and America.

The alliance was founded and is led by Chairman & CEO of Garant Holding Anar Mammadov.

News.Az

I suspect that Azerbaijan will increasingly be viewed by Washington as the ally that it always wished Turkey would be. I realize that Turkey and Azerbaijan share much stronger bonds than the US and Azerbaijan could establish, and therefore this would not be an attempt to drive a wedge between the two. However, I suspect that as far as security interests are concerned, we probably have more in common with Azerbaijan than we do with Turkey (whose foreign policy has been essentially incomprehensible in the last several years).

It is not unreasonable to expect a rapid strengthening of ties, especially if the nuclear negotiations with Iran fail.

 

[Winchester]

Would be interesting how this plays out....i heard the Armenian lobby is quite strong in the U.S!

 

[Raphael]

Armenians have a lot of power in the US. Kim Kardashian will send an appeal to the American people not to support this proposal through her reality TV program, and then Gosar will get voted out of office.

 

[rmi5]

I suspect that Azerbaijan will increasingly be viewed by Washington as the ally that it always wished Turkey would be. I realize that Turkey and Azerbaijan share much stronger bonds than the US and Azerbaijan could establish, and therefore this would not be an attempt to drive a wedge between the two. However, I suspect that as far as security interests are concerned, we probably have more in common with Azerbaijan than we do with Turkey (whose foreign policy has been essentially incomprehensible in the last several years).

It is not unreasonable to expect a rapid strengthening of ties, especially if the nuclear negotiations with Iran fail.

Azerbaijan can play 5 major roles for USA, which makes her unique for USA:

1. Iran's neighbor: The biggest non-persian minority of Iran are Azerbaijani turks who have control over a big portion of Iranian economy, and consist 1/2 of population of Iranian capital, and 1/4 of total population of country, and have grudges with Iran. Hence, the relation with Iran will never be good, and Azerbaijan republic would have a huge natural influence on Iran, and Iran is one of main security concerns of USA.

2. Russia's neighbor: Also, borders and has huge cultural and historical influence on the achilis hill of Russia, aka Northern Caucasus including Chechenya, and Dagestan.

3. The key to solve EU gas demand: Azeri gas and Central Asian gas transfered through Azerbaijan, are the only viable solution to solve gas dependency of europe on Russia

4. The pillar of secularism: Azerbaijan is considered for a long time as the most secular muslim country. Also, not only has the most secular society among muslims but also among non-muslims of West Asia and South East Europe. hence considered as the natural ally of western secular countries

5. Strong ties with Israel and NATO: Having the strongest ties with Israel among West Asian, and South East European countries, and is strategic ally of Turkey, a NATO member, and close to other NATO members, and gradually started adapting NATO standards.

 

[asena_great]

Armenians have a lot of power in the US. Kim Kardashian will send an appeal to the American people not to support this proposal through her reality TV program, and then Gosar will get voted out of office.

haters gonna hate if eu need gas and us want to keep the oil price reasonable they need azerbaijan btw azerbaijan is gateway for central asia countries's energy like turkmenistan kazakhstan and uzbekistan

lets see of their lobby could beat "the need for energy "

 

[rmi5]

haters gonna hate if eu need gas and us want to keep the oil price reasonable they need azerbaijan btw azerbaijan is gateway for central asia countries s energy like turkmenistan kazakhstan and uzbekistan

lets see of theor lobbycould beat

In contrast to talking about Kim Kardashian and such cheap stuff, we can see the increasing trend of US states that consider Khojali as a genocide committed by Armenians. This number is getting close to half of US states, and after some point, by sending it to US legislature system, and accepting Khojali as a genocide committed by Armenia against Azerbaijan, we can achieve a huge support for our Azerbaijan in USA. Also, Azeri diaspora is really strong in USA as well, consisted of top businessmen, notable noble and fields medal winners, and such.

 

[Raphael]

haters gonna hate if eu need gas and us want to keep the oil price reasonable they need azerbaijan btw azerbaijan is gateway for central asia countries's energy like turkmenistan kazakhstan and uzbekistan

lets see of their lobby could beat "the need for energy "

1. EU demand for gas is not relevant here. This is about one US congressman's proposal, and US foreign policy more broadly.
2. The US doesn't want to keep price of oil "reasonable". The lower it is, the less lucrative their shale oil startups appear, and the less investment they attract.
3. Is Azerbaijan that reliable? Azerbaijan depends on Georgia to connect to Europe, but Russia has the ability to bisect Georgia at will. Russia could kill off the BTC pipeline tomorrow. And Western powers have demonstrated that they are completely powerless to stop Russia from remaking its backyard as it sees fit. Ukraine, Georgia ... these are Russia playtoys.

4. Most importantly, lobbying that appeals to the public doesn't need explain precise geopolitical interests, because the public simply doesn't care. Kim Kardashian has a lot of soft power, and she can get anti-Armenian politicians dumped in the trash. She is the new Oprah.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

Azerbaijan can play 5 major roles for USA, which makes her unique for USA:

1. Iran's neighbor: The biggest non-persian minority of Iran are Azerbaijani turks who have control over a big portion of Iranian economy, and consist 1/2 of population of Iranian capital, and 1/4 of total population of country, and have grudges with Iran. Hence, the relation with Iran will never be good, and Azerbaijan republic would have a huge antural influence on Iran, and Iran is one of main security concerns of USA.

2. Russia's neighbor: Also, borders and has huge cultural and historical influence on the achilis hill of Russia, aka Northern Caucasus including Chechenya, and Dagestan.

3. The key to solve EU gas demand: Azeri gas and Central Asian gas transfered through Azerbaijan, are the only viable solution to solve gas dependency of europe on Russia

4. The pillar of secularism: Azerbaijan is considered for a long time as the most secular muslim country. Also, not only has the most secular society among muslims but also among non-muslims of West Asia and South East Europe. hence considered as the natural ally of western secular countries

5. Strong ties with Israel and NATO: Having the strongest ties with Israel among West Asian, and South East European countries, and is strategic ally of Turkey, a NATO member, and close to other NATO members, and gradually started adapting NATO standards.

Excellent points. It's no coincidence that all 5 of these points were once upon a time seen as the value Turkey could provide, but Turkey's attempted rapprochement with Iran undermined #1, Turkey's unwillingness to help in areas that don't directly threaten its own homeland undermines #2, for #3, Azerbaijan is a supplier vs. Turkey's role as transit point, #4 was undermined by the AKP, and again, AKP is busy undermining #5. Again, it's going too far to say that Azerbaijan could replace Turkey, but it's clear that the attraction to Azerbaijan is based on the same factors that attracted us to Turkey.

Thanks for the insight.

 

[rmi5]

1. EU demand for gas is not relevant here. This is about one US congressman's proposal, and US foreign policy more broadly.

It is not just about one senator. Recently we had another senator who wrote letter to Ms. Clinton and asked for openly support of Southern Azerbaijan. Also, The number of states recognizing Khojali genocide is getting close to half of US states.

2. The US doesn't want to keep price of oil "reasonable". The lower it is, the less lucrative their shale oil startups appear, and the less investment they attract.

What US wants is the stability and diversifying of energy routes, not necessarily prices.

3. Is Azerbaijan that reliable? Azerbaijan depends on Georgia to connect to Europe, but Russia has the ability to bisect Georgia at will. Russia could kill off the BTC pipeline tomorrow. And Western powers have demonstrated that they are completely powerless to stop Russia from remaking its backyard as it sees fit. Ukraine, Georgia ... these are Russia playtoys.

Azerbaijan also has control on Achilis hill of Russia, aka Chechnya and Dagestan. Russians know history very well, and don't want us to create another "Imam Shamil" for them. Also, In contrast to Crimea, which was irrelevant for West, Georgia and stabilizing huge untapped energy sources are a different story. If Russia was able to capture Georgia without huge International consequences, they would have already done so in their war. Also, Azerbaijan has the option of Southern Azerbaijan as well for the long term which connects Azerbaijan to Turkey from the southern border.

Excellent points. It's no coincidence that all 5 of these points were once upon a time seen as the value Turkey could provide, but Turkey's attempted rapprochement with Iran undermined #1, Turkey's unwillingness to help in areas that don't directly threaten its own homeland undermines #2, for #3, Azerbaijan is a supplier vs. Turkey's role as transit point, #4 was undermined by the AKP, and again, AKP is busy undermining #5. Again, it's going too far to say that Azerbaijan could replace Turkey, but it's clear that the attraction to Azerbaijan is based on the same factors that attracted us to Turkey.

Thanks for the insight.

When economic crisis happened in EU, turkey needed to find new destinations for her exports to replace her decreased exports to EU. AKP chose Middle East for this purpose, hence started pan islamist slogans to open ME countries and societies for turkey and turkish products. This strategy worked very well from economic point of view and saved Turkey from EU economic crisis. Also gradually gained huge economic influence on Iraqi kurds. In contrast to the general opinion about Erdogan and AKP who think of them as dumb religious people and although I dislike them, yet I need to say that he is a smart man who knows when to play which card. He knows when to push pan islamist agendas and when do so for nationalistic, democratic, turkic, and other agendas.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

When economic crisis happened in EU, turkey needed to find new destinations for her exports to replace her decreased exports to EU. AKP chose Middle East for this purpose, hence started pan islamist slogans to open ME countries and societies for turkey and turkish products. This strategy worked very well from economic point of view and saved Turkey from EU economic crisis. Also gradually gained huge economic influence on Iraqi kurds. In contrast to the general opinion about Erdogan and AKP who think of them as dumb religious people and although I dislike them, yet I need to say that he is a smart man who knows when to play which card. He knows when to pull pan islamist agendas and when do so for nationalistic, democratic, turkic, and other agendas.

I have never questioned Erdogan's mastery of domestic politics. To some degree, he did what he had to do to save Turkey, but the problem is that as far as foreign relations are concerned, trust takes decades to build--and that's gone, now. Turkey may have been able to take a shortcut to pander to the Middle Eastern countries with pan-Islamism, but there is no shortcut to rebuilding trust with America and Europe (and it appears Turkey is not be interested in rebuilding relations with Israel at all, so we'll put that aside as a non-possibility).

Economically, the Middle East is less helpful than it was before, because of the chaos engulfing the area. Turkey can, of course, continue to build relationships with Asia, but its most natural market and its competitive advantage is with its neighbor, the EU. Sacrificing the long-standing relationship with Europe for the shaky friendship of the Muslim world (can anyone say that this will even hold up?) seems phenomenally short-sighted to me. But that's up to Turks to judge, I suppose.

 

[asena_great]

In contrast to talking about Kim Kardashian and such cheap stuff, we can see the increasing trend of US states that consider Khojali as a genocide committed by Armenians. This number is getting close to half of US states, and after some point, by sending it to US legislature system, and accepting Khojali as a genocide committed by Armenia against Azerbaijan, we can achieve a huge support for our Azerbaijan in USA. Also, Azeri diaspora is really strong in USA as well, consisted of top businessmen, notable noble and fields medal winners, and such.

yup i know brother i think azerbijan should start to organisation like opec with turkmenistan kazakhistan and uzbekistan and export the oil via azerbijan to black sea from there eu tankers can get their oil with out need to go to far away dangerous land it's also give more political wight to turkey since their tankers cross our seas

4. Most importantly, lobbying that appeals to the public doesn't need explain precise geopolitical interests, because the public simply doesn't care. Kim Kardashian has a lot of soft power, and she can get anti-Armenian politicians dumped in the trash. She is the new Oprah.

god stop this and be realistic what she can do ? maybe she should make another tap with azerbijani guy and start a propaganda hey look do u see what they are doing to us ??

3. Is Azerbaijan that reliable? Azerbaijan depends on Georgia to connect to Europe, but Russia has the ability to bisect Georgia at will. Russia could kill off the BTC pipeline tomorrow. And Western powers have demonstrated that they are completely powerless to stop Russia from remaking its backyard as it sees fit. Ukraine, Georgia ... these are Russia playtoys.

i dont think russia want to mass with 6 friendly rich country at once they will get their share from central asian markets

@rmi5 gived the rest of the answer

 

[Raphael]

It is not just about one senator. Recently we had another senator who wrote letter to Ms. Clinton and asked for openly support of Southern Azerbaijan. Also, The number of states recognizing Khojali genocide is getting close to half of US states.

I'm sure Azeri diaspora has some influence. But it would also be dishonest to deny that it is totally dwarfed by the Armenian diaspora. The Armenian-American community is older, larger and more established. They produced celebrities like Kim Kardashian, Cher, and Andre Agassi. They made nearly all US states recognize the Armenian genocide, which has become a household name (whereas Khojali is, unfortunately, fairly unknown).

What US wants is the stability and diversifying of energy routes, not necessarily prices.

I don't believe this is true. The more Europe's energy security exacerbates, the more it will have to depend on US shale oil developments. It's one reason the US has applied such immense pressure for the EU to sanction Iran, even though it is so totally contrary to Europe's interests.

Azerbaijan also has control on Achilis hill of Russia, aka Chechnya and Dagestan. Russians know history very well, and don't want us to create another "Imam Shamil" for them. Also, In contrast to Crimea, which was irrelevant for West, Georgia and stabilizing huge untapped energy sources are a different story. If Russia was able to capture Georgia without huge International consequences, they would have already done so in their war. Also, Azerbaijan has the option of Southern Azerbaijan as well for the long term which connects Azerbaijan to Turkey from the southern border.

Are you saying Azerbaijan started the Chechenya insurgency, or is capable of starting another one? I find it hard to believe, because 1. They are Sunni, and you are Shia, 2. They are Caucasian, and you are Turkic. They only point of commonality is "Islam", but as your contempt for the "Ummah" has shown, that's not a very strong link at all. I'm inclined to believe that if there is any foreign hand capable of directing the Chechens, it would only be Saudi Arabia. Maybe ISIS too. But not you.

Anyway, for your final points:
1. I think in 2008, Russia was still holding out for a "reset" in relations with the US, and so didn't want to act too forcefully in Georgia. But that reset happened and amounted to nothing, and now Russia knows that the West will only settle for Russia's complete destruction, and won't pull back any punches anymore. Now if Georgia acts insolently, Russia will decisively carve out a land corridor from South Ossetia to Armenia and dismantle the BTC pipeline, Crimea-style.
2. South Azerbaijan is not a contiguous territory and can't connect to Azerbaijan's Caspian ports unless transiting through hostile Iranian territory. Unless you want to airlift oil supplies now?

 

[rmi5]

I have never questioned Erdogan's mastery of domestic politics. To some degree, he did what he had to do to save Turkey, but the problem is that as far as foreign relations are concerned, trust takes decades to build--and that's gone, now. Turkey may have been able to take a shortcut to pander to the Middle Eastern countries with pan-Islamism, but there is no shortcut to rebuilding trust with America and Europe (and it appears Turkey is not be interested in rebuilding relations with Israel at all, so we'll put that aside as a non-possibility).

Economically, the Middle East is less helpful than it was before, because of the chaos engulfing the area. Turkey can, of course, continue to build relationships with Asia, but its most natural market and its competitive advantage is with its neighbor, the EU. Sacrificing the long-standing relationship with Europe for the shaky friendship of the Muslim world (can anyone say that this will even hold up?) seems phenomenally short-sighted to me. But that's up to Turks to judge, I suppose.

Well, I agree with you but this is not how Erdogan sees the situation. My opinion has always been getting far from Middle East, since it brings no good for us in long term, and keeping ties strong with world powers. My perception from Erdogan is that he feels that West is in a falling trend, hence doing his best to find new allies. Also, by considering the US strategy to shift her forces from ME to far east, he feels that he can fill the gap of US presence.

After the end of cold war era, Western countries almost ignored turkey for a period(since they thought Turkey would no longer have a major role), and Israel helped turkey to strengthen her military and also was a good supporter of Azerbaijan in Karabakh war. Hence, relations boosted with Israel. But, Pan-Islamism could not be done without anti-Israeli slogans, but I believe they were empty slogans since two countries finally and swiftly sorted out the Mavi Marmara incident after bunch of initial empty slogans and still Israelis felt free to travel to Turkey with more than a million per year.

Also, you mentioned in your earlier post about their relation with Iran. It's a complicated issue. Turkey definitely does not want to strengthen Iran, but fears about the regime change as well. Except for disintegration of Iran, Turkey is doubtful about Iranian opposition since they are mostly Neo-Nazi type of ultra nationalists, and would definitely create problem for Turkey in future. So, Turkey, does not seek to change Iranian regime, unless the disintegration of Iran happens. Also, remember about huge economical benefit for doing money laundering for Iran. In one time only, they seized more than 18 Billion dollars of Iranian gold and money under the accusation of it being illegal money.

 

[xenon54 out]

I have never questioned Erdogan's mastery of domestic politics. To some degree, he did what he had to do to save Turkey, but the problem is that as far as foreign relations are concerned, trust takes decades to build--and that's gone, now. Turkey may have been able to take a shortcut to pander to the Middle Eastern countries with pan-Islamism, but there is no shortcut to rebuilding trust with America and Europe (and it appears Turkey is not be interested in rebuilding relations with Israel at all, so we'll put that aside as a non-possibility).

Economically, the Middle East is less helpful than it was before, because of the chaos engulfing the area. Turkey can, of course, continue to build relationships with Asia, but its most natural market and its competitive advantage is with its neighbor, the EU. Sacrificing the long-standing relationship with Europe for the shaky friendship of the Muslim world (can anyone say that this will even hold up?) seems phenomenally short-sighted to me. But that's up to Turks to judge, I suppose.

Talking about trust, Turkey joined Korea war for Americas interest did America joined our war against pkk?

Where is the main money source of pkk, not European countrys who give political asylum to pkk members who later deal drugs and recruit fighters from Europe?
And you come here and say we arent trustable because we dont want to join a war in a clusterfuck called Middle East...
Seems like Turkey needs to gain Wests trust but West doesnt need to gain Turkish trust for you, pretty much explains why 70% of Turks wanted to join EU in 2004 but 70% are against it today.